I mentioned last week there would be some changes made to the Bet Diary, and I meant that in terms of both the services followed and how I report on ongoing performance.
The plan is to split the Bet Diary into three posts each week whenever possible, which ought to be most of the time. The first, published each Monday, will concentrate on a mini-portfolio of golf tipsters, the second on Tuesdays reporting back on the racing specialists’ performance, and the third on Wednesdays covering what might be called a ‘Football/Other Sports’ section.
Readers of the Bet Diary through 2020 will know that I’ve been following two SBC Premium golfing services, PGA Profit and Golf Insider. For 2021 I am going to add a third and by doing so, in what is a deliberate move, increase my exposure to golf as a betting medium. Why? Well, in a nutshell because prices tend to hold up very well, bookmakers appear more tolerant to their customers betting on golf tournaments, the markets are liquid, and there are a good number of times when even better prices than those quoted are to be found on the exchanges.
There are, as ever, swings to the roundabouts. The reasons for betting more on golf are clear. But…and it is a big ‘but’…psychologically, betting on golf can really test the mettle of the individual’s mental strength and resolve. Backing at big prices, which is the norm when it comes to golf betting, leads to longer losing runs and lengthier, more extended periods of drawdown than you might reasonably expect to experience betting on football, tennis, or even horse racing. Hand on heart, I’m not the sort of person who ‘accepts’ losing particularly well. Experience over the years has served to improve my mentality hugely, but I’ve had to work at it. And I mean really work. As a newbie to betting many years ago, following the wrong services led me to drop tipsters who really shouldn’t have been dropped, and these tended to be those who specialised in finding value at the longer prices in the market. I’m not nearly so bad now, but still, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t feel just a touch of trepidation now following three services that fit the low strike rate/big odds profile.
Now, without further ado, let me introduce my third service to this section, another SBC Premium offering – Weekly Golf Value. You can read all about it and how it works here: https://smartbettingclub.com/weekly-golf-value/. Perhaps the most important point to note at this stage is that this is a service for which bookmaker accounts are essential. It finds value in both the win and place part of the each way bet, and for the place part it is often targeting those bookmakers who have extended their place terms to the Top 6 or 8 (or even more on occasions).
One other thing to note, and a change from the way I have followed Golf Insider to this point. Moving forward I will be using level stakes. I’ll go into some detail on this in next week’s post, but for now suffice to say that historically, betting to level stakes has increased the levels of GI profitability.
What can we expect from this golf portfolio, then? I’m imagining a number of losing weeks and months interspersed by surges in profit as a big win is landed. I’m hopeful that the each way part of many of the bets will serve to smooth things a little, but I’m braced for a few (large) bumps along the way in what should be a very interesting ride.
2021 performance (to date)
With no tournament scheduled for the European Tour, it was all focus on the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii for the first week’s golfing action. And what a start it was for Golf Insider, who picked out tournament winner Harris English (30/1). I didn’t stay up to watch all the excitement unfold – it was getting late and I need my beauty sleep – so to find out that this morning that Harris won in a play off brightened up what was a pretty wet and dreary Monday morning. Good grief, I was even nice to the kids over breakfast! There was also a small return on Justin Thomas (7/1) who finished in the places.
No such luck for PGA Profit and a blank week there.
Finally, just to show that not everything runs smoothly, I have to tell you that I didn’t sign up to Weekly Golf Value until today (Monday). Who do I see was tipped up for the first PGA comp of 2021? Yup, you guessed it – Harris English at 30/1! Ouch.
Golf Insider (200pts): Staked 4pts, +13.2pts, roi 330%, roc 6.6%, CDD 0pts, Max DD 0pts.
PGA Profit (500): Staked 17pts, -17pts, roi -100%, roc -3.4%, CDD -17pts, Max DD -17pts.
Weekly Golf Value (1,000): n/a
Golf portfolio: ROI 59.25%, ROC 1.06%.
*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown
