SPORTS: Frustration, late goals and Outcome Bias.

“I was disappointed not to get anything out of tonight’s bet and it really has been a frustrating weekend.” – The Poacher, this morning.

I think there’s a lot to be said for being your own harshest critic, generally speaking anyway.  I guess if you want to be good at something, and to continually look to improve, then you need to be able to self-analyze effectively.  I have always got the impression from The Poacher, since starting to follow his betting advice this year, that this is something he does a lot.  I may be wrong, but it is clear he wants to do well for his clients and my guess is that examining himself, his own methods and performance is something he does a fair bit.

But even the very best tipsters, and tipping services, have to accept that once they’ve put out their advice, there is literally nothing they can do to affect results.  At that point, sport being what it is, they and everyone else is in the lap of the gods.  And I can tell you something.  Those gods can be right mean old beggars at times.

I understand The Poacher’s frustration.  When a team you’ve backed to win is two goals up going into injury time, you kinda expect to be taking a virtual walk to the pay out window.  Not with Atletico Madrid on Sunday afternoon though.  Oh, no!  Goals in the 92nd and 96th minutes stopped that walk dead in its tracks.

So yes, I guess in some ways it has been a frustrating weekend.  But we must be careful of not falling victim to what  believe is known as Outcome Bias.  Outcome Bias is a thing that makes us fall into the trap of judging our process purely on the result (or outcome).  In other words, The Poacher no doubt put a lot of work in before deciding Atletico Madrid represented a good value bet.  That events unfolded that were a. very unlikely to occur, and b. were completely out of his control, does not make his advice to back Madrid a bad bet.  If the process is correct, then over time, the results will follow.

We need to remember this as bettors.  Process, process, process.  Let’s not worry about individual bet outcomes.  After all, we have no control over them.  And what’s the point of worrying over things we have no control over?

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 38.75pts, +6.332pts, roi 16.34%, roc 21.1%, High: 9.132pts, CDD: -2.8pts, Max DD: -3.5pts.

Sports Service 2 (40): Staked 64pts, -4.934pts, roi -7.7%, roc -12.33%, High 0pts, CDD: -4.934pts, Max DD: -6.734pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 147pts, -20.957pts, roi -14.25%, roc -20.95%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -25.351pts, Max DD: -25.351pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 365pts, +21.411pts, roi 5.86%, roc 53.52%, High: 24.07pts, CDD: -2.659pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Totals: ROI 2.93%, ROC 9.8%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

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