I delayed doing the weekly Monday figures update, saving it for yesterday’s totals to be counted up and instead doing an end of month review post today.
First, the final figures for September.
ROI: 5.03%.
Bank Growth (ROC): 11.52%
That’s not too shabby a month, and ultimately provided a welcome relief from the purgatory that was August. And yet, in some ways, September is one that has somehow felt like a month that got away. It’s hard to shake the feeling that with just a shade of fortune being for me and not against me, it would have been a bit of a stormer.
What do I mean by this? Simply that there are a few bets that didn’t win, that really on another day, would have. You can say that all the time when betting, of course. I realise that. And over time, these things all even out and we get the “lucky” wins that really boost profitability and provide that lovely warm feeling that you can do know wrong (whilst also knowing that it ain’t going to last!). Don’t know about you, but there are days, just occasionally, when almost everything you back seems to win, with all the fine margins going for you. All I’m saying is that this past month, when it came to fine margins, they went the other way. It happens.
Drum roll please, for Tipster/Service of the Month…
SYS ANALYST!
What a fantastic month for Allan, and a strong rebound from what had been a testing period beforehand.
Staked 641.8pts, +625.98pts, ROI 97.53% (!), ROC 31.29%.
Incredible figures from a month that barely had a losing day, a couple of really big priced winners, and all win bets (the majority) backed using the Exchanges. There was one biggie each way winner that I used a bookmaker for, but other than that the majority of the profit is net of 2% commission with no danger of having accounts restricted. Fantastic stuff.
Now let’s take a look at the rest, in order of decreasing profitability.
WinnerOdds Football: Staked 8,269pts, +518.67pts, ROI 6.27%, ROC 25.93%.
Like Sys Analyst, WO Footie bounced back strongly from a poor period of underperformance. The ROI this month much closer to where my long term expectations lie, although overall that parameter is still languishing somewhat with more catching up to do. The first week of the month was my most profitable so far, and was followed up with two more weeks ending in the black and just the final weekend dragging things down a little.
My concern, as ever, is ongoing viability with bookmakers due to the nature of some of the games/leagues we’re playing in. To counter that, the actual liability per bet to the bookmaker isn’t actually that high, despite the high stake size because often, the odds are very short. I’m hoping this will help but, significantly, I have had to wave goodbye to two accounts this past month. When a certain other book goes by the wayside, then I have a problem. Which leads me on to…
Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 1,200pts, +251.51pts, ROI 20.95%, ROC 16.76%.
A month that epitomises what to expect from this style of betting (Lucky 15s). One bet, with all four teams winning, generated a profit of just shy of 400 points. The total for the month was 251.51. As these figures demonstrate, the strategy here is that knowing we have a good edge, we place as many Lucky 15s as we can, endure a lot of losing slips or small wins, just waiting for the big one to land. Historic records show that these hit frequently enough to ensure an overall high ROI…and that is exactly what has happened through September.
Despite the figures, I’m just a little disappointed not to have been able to get more bets down. An international break early in the month didn’t help, and with 80 bets struck, I fell significantly short of my turnover target. Note to self – must do better!
Bookie Bashing “Value Bets”: Staked 2,260pts, +219.66pts, ROI 9.71%, ROC 10.98%.
A fabulous last weekend/yesterday really pulled things around for bets that until then had made a small loss all told, into one that finished with double digit ROC. Bets on Cards and Enhanced Specials did the trick. One ES on the Bournemouth/Southampton match last night was HUGE value…when the sixth corner was given to land this particular bet (after that *!@!!* Michael Oliver didn’t give what was such an obvious corner that would have made it six, meaning a relatively anxious few minutes hoping for the sixth that just weren’t necessary!) it was happy days indeed!
Think I mentioned it last week, but really enjoying finding the value bets for myself. Something just so very rewarding about it. It’s the same as the feeling you get from a perfectly executed cover drive that you hold the follow through for just to pose, and not even have to consider running as you watch the ball scoot to the boundary. Mind you, it’s been a while since one of those, got to say.
Weekly Golf Value: Staked 588pts, -231.5pts, ROI -39.37%, ROC -11.57%.
Really not much to comment on what is a pretty average golf betting month for any service that specialises in this particular sport. We go through periods without winners. Fact. (see comments above on the EP Tracker…we just keep placing the bets and wait for the big one)
Just one thing of note. I had to replace one of the WGV golfers last week with my own from the Tracker as my lad’s accounts start to be restricted. I can see this trend strengthening where each week more golfers are sourced by myself from the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker. I have no issue with that, whatsoever. In fact, I may start to do this more moving forward anyway as it means getting different bets on different players at a different time to the WGV subscriber base.
The Value Machine: Staked 9,590pts, -291.43pts, ROI -3.03%, ROC -14.57%
Well, what a ride this has been! From being very nicely up to a drawdown that reached the equivalent of 40% of the bank at its lowest (so far) mark, with a tiny bounce back in the right direction yesterday. Two drastically poor Saturdays have done for me.
Lots of bets, and a bit of a grind which is always more difficult when not winning, of course. I have been asked if after this number of points staked (959 individual bets), should the edge – if there is one – ought not to have revealed itself? The short answer is ‘No’, but my next post will go into this in more detail, so that’s all I want to say about that here.
Like WinnerOdds, my bigger fear here is losing accounts, although Kieran’s stated strategy of lots of bets at relatively low stakes is one I’m following with this service. Fingers crossed then, we get a good run from the bookmakers. Time will tell. I do limit the number of bets I strike with any one particular company each day too, which is easy to do as so many betting opportunities come through.
So there we have it. Autumn hasn’t got off to a bad start. Let’s see what October brings.
