Preparing for the worst.

Last week we spoke about the dreaded losing run and hinted at the difficulties in developing a coping mechanism that cab be relied upon when one strikes.  I mentioned that I’d write a series of posts around the subject.  This is the first.

To be totally honest, it took me a good long while to even begin to cope when things turned sour.  I made all the basic, text book mistakes; dropping a good tipster who was simply going through a temporary bad patch, jumping to new tipsters that hadn’t really proved their ability over a large enough sample of bets or for a long enough period of time, reducing stakes, etc., etc.  Whatever it is you are told not to do, I did it, and I paid the price in hard cash, never making as much as I ought to and losing more than I should.

When I thought about how I would approach this series of posts, it dawned on me that the very best thing anyone can do is to pre-prepare for losing runs.  Instead of simply learning about what you should and shouldn’t do when a drawdown actually hits, better by far to put yourself in a place where you are pre-empting the worst before it actually happens.  Readying yourself for the inevitable, if you like.

So what is the first step?

I’d suggest that before anything else, we need to truly accept that there will be times when our betting looks bleak, pointless, is mentally draining and worrying.  Now, do you really accept that this is so, or do you actually merely pay lip service to the notion, telling yourself that periods of sustained loss will happen, sure, but if you pick the right services to follow, they won’t happen to you?  I have spoken to so many bettors who tell me that when a sharp drawdown arrived, it actually took them by surprise despite the fact they’d read all about them and had thought they were ready, but in fact weren’t anywhere near prepared.

And there it is in a nutshell…being prepared.  Even if we think the worst won’t happen, why not set your betting operation up in such a way that if (when) it does, you’ve built yourself the best, most sturdy of shelters to resist the ravages of the storm?

How do you do this?  Simple.  You make sure that your betting bank is big enough.  Again, I can pass on that the number of people I’ve spoken to during my betting consultancy sessions who massively overstake in relation to their available funds is huge.  My belief is that it is the most common error people make when it comes to betting – they’re underfunded and overstaking.  We’ll explore the consequences of having a betting bank that is not built for the stakes being used in later posts, but for now, take this one point away with you – make sure your betting bank is of sufficient size.  If it’s not, then reduce stakes or drop services, even if only temporarily whilst you build your betting bank to the size it ought to be.  Believe me, this one simple measure will keep you in the game long term, and in the beginning, that really should be your sole aim.

One more point.  You may see discussion about leveraging your funds.  In other words, you are assigning a theoretically larger bank than you actually possess in cash terms, across two or more services.  The principle is that as you diversify and spread your risk across a number of different tipsters, you can afford to spread your funds and make the money you do have work harder for you.  Be careful – I can see the point of this if you have a larger portfolio of services (I do apply a little leverage to my own private betting), but when you’re starting out, why increase your exposure and therefore risk?  By re-investing profit, you can build your portfolio steadily and safely without leveraging funds at all.  And then, when you have done this, sure, apply a little leverage, but don’t go mad, for if you do then it adds to the pressure when a losing run hits, which in turn can have a very real, detrimental affect on you as a bettor.

More on losing runs next week.

Betting for August 1st to August 6th.

Well, things are looking a little brighter than they were.  Good weeks for Northern Monkey and Racing Service B at Glorious Goodwood (with NMP knocking in the winner of the Stewards Cup at 20/1!).  The star of the show however was the Fake Mug Bets Club which was one of those to really suffer in July.  Saturday saw three of five daytime selections winning which meant a number of successful Combo bets landed and a very nice return indeed.

AH Betting: Staked 5pts, -0.157pts.

Football Service 1: n/a

Fake Mug Bets Club: Staked 60pts, +47.75pts.

Jason James: Staked 17pts, -6.5pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 19pts, -0.25pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 13.875pts, +9.437pts.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 6.733pts, +0.433pts.

Racing Service A: n/a

Racing Service B: Staked 22pts, +15.7pts.

Racing Service C: Staked 21pts, -1.625pts.

Total month to date: ROI 25.01%, ROC 2.76%.

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