No such thing as a dead cert!

I think everyone and anyone has heard someone say there’s no such thing as a dead cert, whether they are into betting or not.  It’s a bit of a cliche, and I guess like most cliches, it has become a cliche because it is true.

However, I’ve found it interesting this past week that a couple of things have happened that I’ve found, on the surface at least, to be irritating because mentally I was in fact treating some bets like they were dead certs.

Last week has proven to be something of a damp squib.  A solid weekend pulled things around rather and I’m grateful for that.  I’m just in the process of totting up Sunday’s results by going fetching the returns due at various bookmakers so I’ll post the latest figures up in the next Bet Diary installment, but I can tell you that Erik van Rooyen winning the sole golfing event on Sunday at 50/1, gained via the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker (yes, that’s right – another winner for the offspring whose golf ROI now stands at 62%!) will have pulled things around.

The two to struggle for me last week were AI Football and the Bookie Bashing Football Coupons.  

Let’s start with the first of those.  AI Football specializes in finding value in what are often, very short prices.  I have no issue with this.  Value is value, whether that’s in a 1/2 price or odds of 50/1.  But psychologically, it can prove tricky, for when a service like AI Football goes through a bit of a bad spell, seeing losers that are heavily odds on can be difficult to take.  You feel like they have to win.  If an expert is telling you to back something at 1/3 say, you can’t help but feel it must be a dead cert, which although ridiculous, is true nonetheless.  It is much easier to be patient, I find, with a service going through a tricky spell but which finds value at longer prices.  It’s much easier to rationalise losing bets at 20/1 than it is those at 4/7.

What to do about it?  Nothing – just keep betting, be consistent, and trust the expert to come out the other side of their difficult periods.  Just so you know though, the £1k bank with initial 2.5% stake per bet of £25, is now down to £20.  Work to do.

As for the Football Coupons.  Charlton at home in the FA Cup against Cray Valley (I mean, who?!?).  Charlton identified as value to win with there being 2 or more goals scored in the match, at a price of 1/8.  Final score: 1 -1.

I mean come on!

I don’t usually put bets into my Coupons at such short prices, but my logic was is that it would provide a foundation stone around which we could potentially find winning doubles within the seven teams on the slip to make successful trebles.  Ha!  So much for that strategy, this time anyway.

Ironically, I’m  reluctant to put such short prices on my betting slips because there’s no such thing as a dead cert, right?  But then I did put it on this time, because at 1/8 it was a dead cert, right?

I think on reflection, and taking into account all external factors, I’ve been a bit of a muppet.  An inconsistent muppet at that.

Like I say, I’ll have updated figures to post up in my next update, but until then I will leave you with No.1 Son’s figures from using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker:

Bets: 185.  Tournaments: 14.  Placed finishers: 17.  Winners: 5 (!).  ROI: 62.78%.

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