How a struggling tipster is like a football manager facing the sack.

Well the back is better at least.  A heady mix of anti-inflammatories and some pretty hefty, prescription strength pain killers did the trick.  I should have put some of the latter to one side, ready to use them to dull the pain next time a horrific day hits.  You live and learn.

So, in this post I want to continue the theme of dropping tipsters.  We’ve already seen that we can apply some cold hard maths to the subject, comparing Betfair SP and/or Pinnacle closing prices to the advised prices to see if there is a suggestion of an eroding edge at play, or simply a bit of bad luck and variance.

One thing I personally take into account when deliberating over this issue is whether there is some change in strategy being employed by a tipster who is going through the mill a bit.  I liken it to a football manager who plays a certain formation for weeks on end, say 4-3-3, and with some success.  However, he starts to make some strange selection decisions, injuries hit, a bit of bad luck and before you know it that manager is coming under real pressure – the fans want him out and the Chairman has done that most dastardly of footballing deeds and given a public vote of confidence.  The pressure gets to the manager who starts changing his system, playing three at the back perhaps, when he would never have done so in calmer times.  Of course, results very rarely pick up as by the time it gets to this stage the rot has set in and the inevitable sacking is merely around the corner – as far as this particular Club is concerned, the manager is done.

So it is with a struggling tipster.  The pressure can begin to take a grip.  Selection strategies change – perhaps a lot more bets all of a sudden, or maybe going the other way and issuing far fewer picks than normal.  Perhaps whereas the norm for a racing tipster is to back win only, they start throwing in a lot more each way selections.  These and other things are tell tale signs that the pressure is perhaps becoming a little too much.  And let’s face it, a commercial tipster on a long losing run has got to be feeling it, right?

This is why the SBC quite rightly place so much emphasis on tipster longevity.  They need to see evidence of someone coming through a deep drawdown the other side, strategies in tact and the wiser for the experience,

What we mustn’t do is confuse the above with a tipster who adapts and tinkers slightly with their approach to adapt to changing market or even sporting conditions.  Football Service 2 is a good example of a service which tells their member that they have noticed a change in an underlying factor that is having an impact on their betting.  This process of renewal and adaptation is essential for a tipster to ensure they stay ahead of the markets.

Being able to differentiate between the two – a tipster panicking and radically and fundamentally altering their approach in response, and another keeping ahead of the market – is an important skill to acquire, and one which will stand your own betting in good stead if you can master it.

No post next week as I’m off on my holibobs during half term.  Back the week after.

Portfolio performance for October to date

Main portfolio: ROI -10.96%, ROC -5.21%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -1.19%, ROC -0.57%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 25pts, +4pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 32pts, -23pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 139.3pts, +9.33pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 18pts, +2.097pts

Golf Insider: Staked 41pts, -41pts.

MVS: Staked 41pts, -6.625pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 49.25pts, -10.079pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 24.95pts, -11.001pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 44pts, +20.737pts.

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