Drawing a line – when to give up on a tipster (Part 1)

We all know by now don’t we, that profitable betting means focusing on the long term.  It’s drummed into us SBC members right from joining up, and quite rightly so.  We have evidence from the SBC’s tipster monitoring that even the very best services on the market have losing runs.  Drawdowns simply cannot be avoided and anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar.

On the one hand we have the experts telling us that we simply must focus on the long term if we want to have any chance of betting success, but our own inner demons – the voices in our head – are screaming at us to drop an underperforming tipster quicker than Rebekah Vardy can scribble out Colleen Rooney’s name from her Halloween Party guest list.

So what do we do when it’s time to make a decision as to whether we should drop an underperforming tipster or group of tipsters (what is the collective pronoun for tipsters?  A shackle?) a shackle of tipsters?  How can we make a decision based on logic and sound thinking rather than one that is made too hastily and which is influenced by raw emotions brought about by losing money?

I’m afraid to say that there is no simple answer.  There’s no magic formulae or ‘golden rule’.  The decision-making process becomes easier with experience and I have to say that often the most reliable influence comes from what I can only call gut instinct, which isn’t very helpful I know.

Having said that, there are certain things you can do and watch out for that set you up to being capable of making your decisions based on the right reasons.  And that is all you can really ask of yourself.  It will mean that you make more correct decisions about your betting than you do wrong ones and ultimately that will help you be profitable and not loss-making.

I’ll spend the next few weeks chatting about various factors and try to give you examples of where I have learnt from my own experiences, including outlining some of the mistakes I’ve made over the years, dropping a tipster just before they’ve posted record profits and following others over a cliff with the inevitable consequences.

It would be great to make this interactive, so please do ask questions and post your own experiences in the ‘Comments’ section.  Having a good idea as to when to drop a tipster is a skill we can all benefit from acquiring or improving, so let’s do that together.  If you’re reading the non-members version of the ‘Bet Diary’, join up and contribute to the discussion.  It can only benefit us all.

Right then.  Looking forward to getting stuck into this.  See you next week, and in the meantime, good luck in the ever raging war against the bookies.

Portfolio performance for October to date

Main’ portfolio: ROI -17.33%, ROC -2.89%.

(-17.33% ROI!?! – sack it!  Drop ’em all!)

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI 6.45%, ROC 0.96%

(6.45% ROI? – apart from these ones)

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 6pts, -6pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 12pts, -12pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 41pts, +3.83pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 2pts, +1.887pts

Golf Insider: Staked 13.5pts, -13.5pts.

MVS: Staked 11pts, -0.75pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 20.25pts, +4.537pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 13.15pts, -4.571pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 11pts, -4.1pts.

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