I mentioned yesterday that I was introducing another strategy for 2024, and on advice from others, that’s the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker.
The Early Pay Out Tracker seeks out value in football teams, when taking into account that at Bet 365, Paddy Power, BetFred, Skybet and one or two others, should your team go ahead at any time in the match by two clear goals, they will pay the bet out as a winner regardless of the final score. This concession provides an edge if backing the right teams, which is where the Tracker comes in.
The strategy I’m adopting is to put these teams into a Lucky 15 in the same way we do horses with the Racing Tracker, looking to compound value, whilst acknowledging this is likely to make the ride a more volatile one. I trialled this approach through December to small stakes, and liked what I saw.
It was clearly a good month, and I know it is highly unlikely that it will always be so easy. Here are the stats:
Bets: 87
Max DD: -5.7% of bank allocated
ROI: 60.45%
ROC: 40.9%
Pretty impressive, huh? In truth, and very much like our experience with the Racing Tracker, the majority of profit came from one big winning bet which netted a 36 point profit (from a total profit of 54.5pts). Albeit the fact this is a very small sample, what I found encouraging was the maximum drawdown figure, which reached just under 6% of the bank I allocated to the strategy.
The drawback, as ever, is that we have to reconcile ourselves to the fact that any level of sustained success will bring about the inevitable account closures, or perhaps we should question how long will it be before any real success results in receving the oh-so-personal email informing of the Traders’ decision that they no longer welcome your business? When that happens, it’s not just the EP Tracker that suffers, it’s the golf betting too. But we can’t live wondering, so let’s try and make some money whilst we can.
What I should add is that this is one area of our “operation” I’ve delegated to my progeny. I mentioned yesterday there were things he could bring to the party other than cash that would prove to be more than useful.
Right, back tomorrow I hope, with a full run down of what I’ll be betting on this year, and how 2024 is going so far (hint: quietly!).
See you then.
