Had to get a new laptop at the back end of last week.  Old one finally gave up the ghost. and it kinda brought a lot of stuff to a juddering halt.  You don’t realise how much you rely on something until it’s gone.  But, when a new one arrives it’s like that feeling you get when you clean your glasses.  That is, wow, I can see properly again.  In the way that any spectacle wearers will be able to relate too, to now have a laptop that fires up instantly is a revelation.  No longer do I have to press the <On> button and then go and make a hot drink to give it the time to get going.

Anyway, have been conscious that I hadn’t posted my results last week, so here they are.

AI Football: Staked 1,176pts, -143.99pts, ROI: -12.24%, ROC: -14.39%

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 3,622.50pts, +144.81pts, ROI: 3.99%, ROC 9.65%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 6,750pts, +1,313.84pts, ROI: 19.46%, ROC: 65.69%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 6,930pts, +1,081.51pts, ROI: 15.6%, ROC: 72.1%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 3,636pts, +534.36pts, ROI: 14.69%, ROC: 26.71%

DD/HH: Staked 1,306pts, +430pts, ROI: 32.92%, ROC: 43%.

NFL strategy: Staked 847pts, -165.94pts, ROI: -19.59%, ROC: -16.59%

Sys Analyst: Staked 5,483pts, -43.5pts, ROI:-0.79%, ROC: -2.17%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 640pts, +204.77pts, ROI: 31.99%, ROC: 20.47%

TOTAL ROI: 10.31%

It was a good week for…

The Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value with a winner in Nicolai Hojgaard backed at both the bookies (25/1) and on the Exchange (34.0).  I remember it was about this time last year that WGV went on a golfing hot streak to end all hot streaks.  Wouldn’t it be lovely if it repeated the trick!?!

The Bookie Bashing Lucky 15 Racing Tracker strategy.  Agaiu, no huge win (yet), but just a good, solid performance with a number of slipes providing a decent-ish return.  15% ROI is more than acceptable.  In fact, it’s bloomin’ excellent.

It was a bad week for…

The Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker/Value Bets. I think I wrote the previous week that these were due a correction and that the ROI still remains as high as 14% despite my barely having a winning bet speaks volumes.

The laptop situation slowed down turnover last week, although I was able to get plenty enough down using my ‘phone.  Wish I hadn’t bothered to be honest, but I’ll post up the results in my next post later in the week, once I’ve caught up and updated the records. Been a pretty poor showing though.

Weekly Golf Value gave us Nicolai Hojgaard in the season ending DPWT World Tour Championship, and backed at 25/1 plus three others that placed meant that golf produced the goodies this week.  That I also had money on the Exchange at 34.0 meant Sunday evening drinks all round.  Lovely stuff.

Joe’s figures from using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker:

Bets: 239

Tournaments: 18

Winners: 6

Placed: 27

ROI: 60.49%.

Nice work if you can get it!

What isn’t working is his Betfair Sportsbook account.  After a grand total of five golf bets, of which none have  won and only one place, he could get only £2.50 each way on a 125/1 shot last week.  This was taken from the Tracker at a slightly different time to the release of the WGV bets (not long before) so it can’t have been suspicions raised from a load of people jumping on one particular golfer at the same time.

I find this beyond pathetic in an industry that shows how pathetic it can be only too often.  Must have been no more than five golf bets placed on the account, not at a big level of staking, and one placed.  And after that…restrictions?

I guess I’d kinda forgotten how quickly online bookmakers can restrict and close accounts, and perhaps if there had been a load of bets on horses starting at a shorter SP than price taken, or were backed the night before, or were placed each way in eight runner non-handicaps, I could get my head around it a bit more.  But five golf bets taken in strong markets and no sign of a big return, to small stakes?  Nah.  That’s just crap.

Interestingly though, they took a Lucky 15 no problem on Saturday.  Let’s see how long we can do that for.

OK, hands up.  Who hates breaks in the football for internationals?  It is soooooooo tiresome.  If we could get rid of interlulls and VAR, the sporting world would be a much happier place.  Throw in John Terry, Teddy Sheringham, and Cristiano Ronaldo’s neck and goal celebration into the same sporting bin, well….we’d have close to Nirvana.

A decent week, last week.  ROI of 16.7% all told.

It was a good week for…

Sys Analyst.

It’s fair to say that Sys Analyst has been on a bit of a run.  A ‘mare, as some might describe it.  To the extent where (sensibly, I feel) the staking levels were decreased a little whilst we waited for the inevitable recovery.  Two winners from three bets on  Saturday meant a really good profit, and if I hadn’t been such a nob, it would have been an even better week, but more on that below.

Despite the recent poor spell, I’m so pleased to have been given the opportunity to sign up to Sys Analyst this year.  I’ve learnt that Allan oozes a zen-like calm in the face of a drawdown, and that’s what you want from someone you’re investing in.  No panic, but no sense of complacency either.  Just an acceptance that it’s all part of the game we play, that we’ve seen countless painful drawdowns before and will do so again in the future…but if we just do what we know works, and stay calm,  history tells us we’ll see the good times roll again.

Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker

The Value Bets I’ve been taking from the Bet Tracker have been on a right old tear up.  Looking at my figures, over the last three weeks, I’ve struck 39 bets, 21 of which have been winners (!), and the ROI over this period is running at 55%.  This isn’t going to last, but let’s just say that I think some of the cashiers in the shops I go to to get these bets down think I’ve been blessed.  It’s max stake of a £100 quid on these as they’re mainly BetFred boosted prices we’re taking, but there’s more than one BetFred on my round. (Ed.: why can’t I find a “winking” emoji on WordPress, goddammit?)

DD/HH Strategy

And talking of BetFred, all hail Dominic Solanke, a sure fire Ballon D’or winner of the future.  To see him score first when I’d backed him for DD/HH against a Newcastle team I’m beginning to get the hump with (since when has two hands on the back of the defender as you jump for a header not been a foul?  Not that I’m bitter!) was great, but to then see him double up with a second was both properly profitable and funny.  (btw, Kieran Trippier getting involved with the fans at the end – what was all that about?  Are the fans really giving them a hard time?!?  Basically Newcastle are flying, so two defeats seems a bit premature to be getting all angtsy, no?).

It was a poor week for…

Golf.

No winner!?!  Not impressed…

Me, being a nob.

Managed to back the wrong Sys Analyst horse on Sunday.  Was on the mobile and fat fingers do from time to time what fat fingers do.  The Sys Analyst bet won.  Of course it did.

Last thing today, has everyone listened to the latest SBC podcast with Pete and  Josh?  I reckon the two of them are going to be the next Ant and Dec* (ie. two likeable chaps, but supporting the wrong teams).

But seriously, it’s a great listen, and if you haven’t yet, I strongly recommend you get it in your ears.

*or if you prefer: 

Morecambe & Wise?

The Two Ronnies?

The Krankies?

Rod and Emu? 

That isn’t supposed to happen.  Joe and myself are supposed to use the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker and each Sunday revel in the return gained from a 50/1, 70/1, 100/1 or whatever winner.  That’s how it is supposed to work, and that is how it has been working.  But not this week.  Bugger.

A few placed, and before I get too uppity, here are Joe’s updated Golf Tracker figures:

Bets: 214

Tournaments: 16

Winners: 5

Placed: 23

ROI: 53.8%

Anyway, pressure is on.  He’d better get the winning golfer this week, or there’ll be recriminations!

On another note, I’ve not had a single bet today, and that feels a bit strange.  I genuinely can’t remember the last time that was, but with not football due to yet another interminable break for international football that I reckon the sum of those interested in it is zero, plus pretty low-standard racing fare…well there just hasn’t been anything to bet on.  Feels like Christmas!

Not much to add today.  Should be back on Wednesday for a full figures update.

-5.7% ROI for the week running 30th October to 5th November.  Running at 9.92% ROI since 1st April.

It was a good week for…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker

As mentioned in my last post, Erik van Rooyen was a very welcome winner on Sunday evening in the week’s only golf tournament, or at least the only tournament that held interest in it from a betting point of view.  I tend to see the finish of US PGA events each Sunday as marking the end of the betting week, as I’ll be off to bed either at the end of it if managing to stay up, or halfway or further through the final round.

And so after what had been a pretty poor week up to that point, I was rescued somewhat by EvR’s triumph, and a bad week was transformed into a mediocre one.  With a number of golfers to finish in the places too, it was a darned fine week for the Tracker.

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker – Lucky 15s

Nothing spectacular in terms of winning slips last week, but the losers didn’t lose much and a semi-decent slip on Saturday meant a fair profit on the week.  It’s interesting (I feel, at least) that since April I’ve made over 60% in terms of bank growth, and yet I’ve only had one really good slip.  The Lucky 15s were spectacular for me last year, with four big wins, but this year has shown another way, more like quiet accumulation of profit.  Would be nice to get in another banger though.  Feeling it’s due.

It was a poor week for…

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons

Biggest culprit last week.  That 1/8 Charlton losing pick on a number of slips I mentioned, designed to give something to build successful trebles around, was pretty costly.

I really dislike taking in a slip for a pay out that can literally be a couple of quid.  Think I’d rather only two teams on the slip win and therefore I don’t need to bother.  I know – that’s my hang up!

AI Football

Having started with a proper bank (an experimental £1,000, adopting the “stake 2.5% of your bank” approach, ie. £25 per bet initially), and making some decent profit last week, this week was disappointing.  I’m now down to staking £20 per bet, which kind of tells the story.

NFL Strategy

This got off to an absolute stormer in Gameweek 1 of the new NFL season, but since then has failed to deliver.  Frustratingly I did get a half time draw last week, but the pre-game favourite, on who I had the Draw/Fav HT/FT double went and lost.  Muppets.

Poor week last week though, with five suitable games to get involved with, and no returns.  Thing is, the Maths is right, the odds are very firmly in my favour…just have to wait for the cards to fall in the way we want them to.

And an honourable mention to…

Touchdown Profit

Shock, horror, TP actually had a loser this week.  It had been a while!  Mind you, we’ll excuse it this week as the one loser was compensated for by two winners and another profitable week.  The ROI levels this service is hitting – not just this season but in the longer term – from such tight markets is exceptionally impressive.

And with that kiss of death, the figures…

AI Football: Staked 806pts, -91.79pts, ROI: -11.38%, ROC: -9.17%

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 3,482.50pts, +103.85pts, ROI: 2.98%, ROC 6.92%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 6,164pts, +1,068.43pts, ROI: 17.33%, ROC: 35.61%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 6,450pts, +934.02pts, ROI: 14.48%, ROC: 62.26%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 3,056pts, +464.21pts, ROI: 15.19%, ROC: 23.21%

DD/HH: Staked 1,219.5pts, +306.50pts, ROI: 25.13%, ROC: 30.6%.

NFL strategy: Staked 747pts, -65.94pts, ROI: -8.82%, ROC: -6.59%

Sys Analyst: Staked 5,158.2pts, -166.31pts, ROI:-3.22%, ROC: -8.31%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 540pts, +189.11pts, ROI: 35.02%, ROC: 18.91%

TOTAL ROI: 9.92%

I think everyone and anyone has heard someone say there’s no such thing as a dead cert, whether they are into betting or not.  It’s a bit of a cliche, and I guess like most cliches, it has become a cliche because it is true.

However, I’ve found it interesting this past week that a couple of things have happened that I’ve found, on the surface at least, to be irritating because mentally I was in fact treating some bets like they were dead certs.

Last week has proven to be something of a damp squib.  A solid weekend pulled things around rather and I’m grateful for that.  I’m just in the process of totting up Sunday’s results by going fetching the returns due at various bookmakers so I’ll post the latest figures up in the next Bet Diary installment, but I can tell you that Erik van Rooyen winning the sole golfing event on Sunday at 50/1, gained via the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker (yes, that’s right – another winner for the offspring whose golf ROI now stands at 62%!) will have pulled things around.

The two to struggle for me last week were AI Football and the Bookie Bashing Football Coupons.  

Let’s start with the first of those.  AI Football specializes in finding value in what are often, very short prices.  I have no issue with this.  Value is value, whether that’s in a 1/2 price or odds of 50/1.  But psychologically, it can prove tricky, for when a service like AI Football goes through a bit of a bad spell, seeing losers that are heavily odds on can be difficult to take.  You feel like they have to win.  If an expert is telling you to back something at 1/3 say, you can’t help but feel it must be a dead cert, which although ridiculous, is true nonetheless.  It is much easier to be patient, I find, with a service going through a tricky spell but which finds value at longer prices.  It’s much easier to rationalise losing bets at 20/1 than it is those at 4/7.

What to do about it?  Nothing – just keep betting, be consistent, and trust the expert to come out the other side of their difficult periods.  Just so you know though, the £1k bank with initial 2.5% stake per bet of £25, is now down to £20.  Work to do.

As for the Football Coupons.  Charlton at home in the FA Cup against Cray Valley (I mean, who?!?).  Charlton identified as value to win with there being 2 or more goals scored in the match, at a price of 1/8.  Final score: 1 -1.

I mean come on!

I don’t usually put bets into my Coupons at such short prices, but my logic was is that it would provide a foundation stone around which we could potentially find winning doubles within the seven teams on the slip to make successful trebles.  Ha!  So much for that strategy, this time anyway.

Ironically, I’m  reluctant to put such short prices on my betting slips because there’s no such thing as a dead cert, right?  But then I did put it on this time, because at 1/8 it was a dead cert, right?

I think on reflection, and taking into account all external factors, I’ve been a bit of a muppet.  An inconsistent muppet at that.

Like I say, I’ll have updated figures to post up in my next update, but until then I will leave you with No.1 Son’s figures from using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker:

Bets: 185.  Tournaments: 14.  Placed finishers: 17.  Winners: 5 (!).  ROI: 62.78%.

So let me get this out of the way right at the start of this post:

I am a grumpy old git.

It is in this context that I ask you for your stance on Trick and Treating.  Good, harmless fun, or something more sinister with young ne’erdowells extorting you for goodies on the unspoken but heavily hinted threat that should you dare to say ‘Trick’, you’ll likely wake up the next morning to find your car doused in white gloss paint?

Look, I’ve really no issue with young children – say up to the age of 11 – getting dressed up, she as a Wicked Witch of the West, he as Bruno Fernandes (is there a more unlikeable footballer in the modern game?  A 2023 version of a mix of John Terry and Teddy Sheringham…ugh!), and accompanied by a responsible adult, knocking on a few doors and politely trying, and failing, to look terrifying.  I mean, they’re easy to avoid.  I just don’t answer the door.

But where I draw the line is what you might describe as “youths” ganging up to look genuinely quite scary.  Not in a ghostie and ghoulish sort of way, but in a “give me a fiver or I’ll mug you and nick your ‘phone off you”, sort of way.

There were loads of the latter types out as I did my bookmaker rounds on Tuesday night.  In what is probably the least salubrious of  the areas I visit, the William Hill had locked the door.  “Like that is it?”, I said as I walked through, once they’d checked me out for any signs of me carrying a Magnum 45 and had let me in.

“Oh, aye”, they said.  “Halloween innit, mate. Get kids opening the door and throwing in  fireworks.  Happens all the time”.

It didn’t take quite as long as usual to fill in my couple of football coupons.  God knows who I backed, I just wanted out.  “Ha, kids, eh?”, I said, with that sort of sarcastic tone that suggests a touch of irony.

“Yeaaaah”, came the reply.  And I genuinely think he was thinking of these delinquents who looked like Siouxie Sioux but without the sense of style, with genuine fondness, and that throwing in a bunch of rockets into a small shop and legging it was something to put down to kids being kids and was all good, healthy jolly japes.  It was alright for him, he was sat behind a screen!

Those two Football Coupons provided nothing by way of return, and to be honest this has been the one strategy to struggle over the past week or so.

I mentioned yesterday that Erling Haaland had come up trumps in the Manchester derby on Sunday for a Double Delight, and there was a single goal scoring winner earlier in the week too so a great week for the DD/HH strategy.

A real star for the past few weeks though, has been Touchdown Profit.  This is never going to be the busiest of services, and a couple of weeks ago just one bet was put up with Matt informing members he had no wish to force things and he was being selective for a reason.  That single bet won, and the following week saw more action and more winners.  It is ticking along very, very nicely indeed, and Matt has been in fine form since the NFL season started.  No doubt I’ve put the kiss of death on things, but we’re currently on an 11-2 run, which is seriously impressive.

I’ve finished my “trial” run of AI Football and have now dedicated a proper bank to it.  To be honest, it’s gone through a bit of a sticky patch but there are signs of a return to form which are encouraging.  I have to admit I can’t get the prices on every bet, but I can on a heck of a lot more than I can’t.  I’ll be setting the stake amount on a daily basis (read more about this here) and will be ploughing all profit back in in an exercise to see how fast the bank grows.

As referred to in Monday’s post the Booking Bashing Golf Tracker and offshoot Weekly Golf Value are really hitting their straps and after a first part of the year that was a little bleak, suddenly the figures look much more like it.  Although still betting win-only on the Exchanges on the WGV picks, it’s so nice to be able to get each way money down at advantageous bookmaker place terms again.

The Lucky 15s from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker have thrown up some decent profit and I came within a literal short head last week of having three winners on the same slip and a hefty return.  When the first  two to run from another slip on Saturday won at 22/1 and 11/1 I couldn’t help but get a little excited, but alas the other two ran like doped up hairy goats.  Actually, the way one of them drifted on the Exchanges in the run up to the off, perhaps it had been doped, but let’s try to avoid paranoia, shall we?

And finally, the recent performance of the Value Bets gleaned from the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker has been not a lot short of miraculous.  The last week has seen me place 19 such bets, with 10 winning and a consequent 63.9% ROI and 12.6% bank growth.  That rate of return ain’t going to last, I can tell you.

So all in all, it’s been a good last week or so, with the weekend just gone treating me especially kindly.  Fingers crossed for a repeat this weekend coming.

Right, that’s all from me this week.  Nothing doing tomorrow as going to get pissed down the pub have one or two shandys with the missus, and a take out.  Sounds like heaven.

Betting 2023-24

AI Football: Staked 395pts, +85.05pts, ROI: 21.53%, ROC: 8.5%

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 2,992.50pts, +310.58pts, ROI: 10.37%, ROC 20.7%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 5,984pts, +836.4pts, ROI: 13.97%, ROC: 27.88%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 6,150pts, +810.62pts, ROI: 13.18%, ROC: 54.04%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 2,731pts, +399.21pts, ROI: 14.61%, ROC: 19.96%

DD/HH: Staked 1,201.5pts, +324.50pts, ROI: 27%, ROC: 32.4%..

NFL strategy: Staked 647pts, +34.06pts, ROI: 5.26%, ROC: 3.4%

Sys Analyst: Staked 5,002.2pts, -113.99pts, ROI:-2.27%, ROC: -5.69%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 480pts, +173.25pts, ROI: 36.09%, ROC: 17.32%

TOTAL ROI: 11.17%

There are going to be some changes around here.  Hopefully, you’ll agree that they’ll be for the better.

For a start, I’m going to simplify my reporting of my performance figures, making it much easier for you to see which service or strategy is bringing home the bacon in real terms.  I’ve had one or two emails from people who have been confused by the points value assigned to each service, which has prompted this particular alteration.

Moving forward then, I’m equalizing the point/£ value.  So for the sake of the Bet Diary, if I strike a bet of £100 with Service A it will show as 100 points staked, as it will if I strike a £100 bet with Service B (my own £/pt values do vary from service to service, as do the number of points assigned to their respective banks).  Naturally this will highlight which are the high turnover services and which are the low.  For example, you’ll see a lot more points being staked each week on golf, than you will on Touchdown Profit.  I’m striking many more golf bets than I am TP NFL bets.  Simple.

In another attempt to simplify matters and make results easier to interpret, I’m dropping the drawdown figures and simply posting ROI and ROC figures for each service.  Don’t worry, I’ll let you know if something is on a horrendous run and I’m about to blow the bank!  Hopefully, that doesn’t happen, eh?

Something else you might notice are more posts going up.  I can’t commit to writing every day, and weekends are sacred, but through the week I’ll be looking to increase the output here somewhat, and I’ll include results updates within each.

I’ve also had to streamline my portfolio a little.  Last week I was able to spend some time with my wife.  She’s a teacher, it was half term, we had nothing booked so instead of going away we trained it up to Manchester a few times, rediscovered the city I grew up in but visit once a year at Christmas (despite it only being about ten miles away), ate good food, drank delicious wine, and talked.  You know, do the sort of things partners are supposed to do, but like many others I’m sure, don’t do as much as we should due to our respective workloads and commitments.

What came out of it all was the realisation that perhaps things had perhaps become too intense, and that since the kids got all grown up and buggered off to Uni, we’ve probably spent less time in one another’s company than we’d ever had, which isn’t right.  I quite like my wife.  She’s a good sort, and she makes me laugh.  Sooo, we both needed to just trim a few things (not all betting related) which means that despite both having what at times can be pretty hectic lives, we could make more time to spend with each other. In my case, amongst other things this means I just need to shave off some time, even if only a little, spent betting and perhaps more relevantly, the admin connected to it.

And finally, I’m going to make 2023/24 a very short year.  One that is only nine months long, to be precise.

Up to now, my betting year has always run from April to the end of March, simply because that is when I started betting seriously many years ago.  But again, it confuses people, and I’ve had numerous messages over the weeks and years asking why I do it this way.  So 2023/24 will be notably lacking in much by way of 24, and will come to a ceremonious end at midnight on December 31st, 2023.  The new betting year, and subsequent reset of the figures on the Bet Diary, will then run from January 1st.  Don’t say I don’t listen to my readers!

As for what has happened over the last week or so down the bookies and on the Exchanges, the betting Gods have smiled upon me.  Or at least, if not smiled, have looked benignly on, clearly bored by me and seemingly unconcerned that I’ve made a decent profit through golf, Lucky 15s, Value Bets and the DD/HH strategy.  Erling Haaland, I salute you.  But now, with my Gooner specs on, you can do one.  Preferably to Madrid.

I’ll look to post tomorrow with some more detail on this general profiteering, and some observations on Halloween and when enough is enough with Trick or Treaters.

Until then, here are the latest figures.

Betting 2023-24

AI Football: Staked 395pts, +85.05pts, ROI: 21.53%, ROC: 8.5%

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 2,992.50pts, +310.58pts, ROI: 10.37%, ROC 20.7%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 5,984pts, +836.4pts, ROI: 13.97%, ROC: 27.88%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 6,150pts, +810.62pts, ROI: 13.18%, ROC: 54.04%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 2,731pts, +399.21pts, ROI: 14.61%, ROC: 19.96%

DD/HH: Staked 1,201.5pts, +324.50pts, ROI: 27%, ROC: 32.4%..

NFL strategy: Staked 647pts, +34.06pts, ROI: 5.26%, ROC: 3.4%

Sys Analyst: Staked 5,002.2pts, -113.99pts, ROI:-2.27%, ROC: -5.69%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 480pts, +173.25pts, ROI: 36.09%, ROC: 17.32%

TOTAL ROI: 11.17%