We all know that betting can be a tough game at times, and we all know why.  Anyone who has done so for any meaningful length of time will be able to tell stories of ridiculously bad luck, extended and draining drawdowns, whatever.  You get the picture.

The issue I find hardest to deal with psychologically is when a service puts together a decent level of profit, but as is the way of these things, does so over a fair period of time.  I’m not talking years here, more a few weeks (so no time at all really, not in the grand scheme of things).  And then in a blink of an eye, a bad week or few days hits and you see most of that profit ebb away in front of your eyes.  It’s normal, and it happens all the time, but I don’t like it.  Not really because I worry about making those losses back up and going on to hit new highs, but because it must be tough on the tipster in particular.  When someone clearly puts a huge amount of effort into doing something, anything, you want them to do well.

So I felt a bit for Allan at Sys Analyst last week.  After a period of good profit, the York Ebor meeting was challenging, to say the least, and subsequently a fair chunk of the profit I’d made since starting to follow was given back.  Now let me be clear, Allan really doesn’t need sympathy from me.  He’s an ultra-experienced, ultra-professional betting expert whose service has proved itself many, many times over across many, many years.  I doubt he’ll have even raised an eyebrow at the results last week.  And to be honest, nor did I.  But I just can’t get over this psychological hurdle of “feeling” for someone who has a bad week.  If I can’t get rid of this ridiculousness by now, I’m not sure I ever will.

Elsewhere, and every other service/strategy either made a little bit of profit, or a small loss.  A pretty unremarkable week.  Nice to see AI Football get off to a decent start for me though, and from an initial £1k bank assigned and a starting stake of £25 per bet (I did say I’d start small and see how we can build), I’m now up to £26 per bet.  Every journey starts with a single step and all that.

Here are the figures…

AI Football: Staked 16pts, +1.865pts, roi 11.65%, High: 1.865pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.

Any Time Goal Scorer (Bookie Bashing):  Staked 24pts, +7.845pts, roi 32.68%, High: 7.845pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 31pts, +10.924pts, roi 35.23%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -3.106pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 4,286pts, -134.89pts, roi -3.14%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -297.28pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 322pts, +44.673pts, roi 13.87%, High: 48.257pts, DD: -3.584pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 72.4pts, +17.944pts, roi 24.78%, High: 17.944pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -4.506pts.

DD/HH: Staked 77.55pts, -4.9pts, roi -6.31%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -7.95pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf): Staked 94.85pts, +24.028pts, roi 25.33%, High: 24.028pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -5.235pts.

NFL strategy:

PGA Profit: Staked 288.5pts, +57.836pts, roi 20.04%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -27.022pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 352.5pts, +16.921pts, roi 4.8%, High: 62.535pts, DD: -45.614pts, Max DD: -45.614pts.

Touchdown Profit:

TOTAL ROI: 12.43%

There is no doubt that artificial intelligence is already, and will be more and more in the future, having an impact on our lives.  Scarily so, if you ask me.  Just like how robotic machinery replaced workers in factories, so I can imagine only too easily that AI could have a similar impact.  I do wonder how different our lives will be in, say, 15 years time as a result of AI.

But, there is also clearly an upside and advantages that AI can bring, and I don’t mean marvelling at how ChatGPT works!  If AI can bring an upside to my betting for example, then in that context I’m all for it!

AI Football recently became an SBC Premium service, and I was impressed by what I read about it.  What struck me was here was a high strike rate service, providing regular bets, that was ideal for growing a betting bank with.  The reinvestment strategy – ploughing back profits into the bank to allow stake size to grow – outlined intrigued me.  Obviously this is a strategy that works with every service that has an established edge, but the speed of growth with AI Football over the past 12 months was outstanding.

So I’ve decided to try it myself, starting with a small bank.  I thought this could be of interest to Bet Diary readers and will hopefully demonstrate in real time how it’s possible to elevate profitability safely and securely.

The first week has been a “getting to know you” exercise, and I’ll run through my thoughts next week.  But for the first week’s results, tune in on Wednesday…

Last week was the best I’ve had for a long time, but boy was it hard work!  I don’t mean hard work in the sense of doing some task that needs doing but is really boring, like clearing out the garage or decorating a bedroom.  I mean it was just busy.  Bear in mind that of the eight bookmakers I travel to, the furthest away is just eight miles, I did over 200 miles in the car last week, most of which were on Saturday.  So, not complaining, but it does give me a feeling of reward when things go well and you see the fruits of all the labour in the form of cash from the bookies!

The Lucky 15 I mentioned on Monday was the highlight, although two non runners meant my return was actually only 70% of what it would have been had there been no non runners and my selections had still won.  That’s all ifs and buts and maybes though.  One horse withdrawn was a favourite leading to a 25% Rule 4 deduction…being favourite you have to acknowledge it may have won instead of my horse and that would have effected the return by a lot more than 25%.  So I’m fairly sanguine about that.  Anyway, nice to be able to tip the staff in that shop.  There are four of them, and they all make the place a pleasure to visit, and those of you who regularly use the shops will know that is not always the case.

Anyway, thanks to the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker for that nice win, and in the same vein thanks to Weekly Golf Value for Dan Brown, winner of the DP Tour golf event last week.  I got odds of 64/1 on the exchange, and that ensured a very nice profit on the golf too.  Edwards Tips added to the profit by way of Viktor Hovland winning the US event but at relatively shorter odds (20/1 on Smarkets).  I feel for PGA Profit who had World No.1 Scottie Sheffler who looked to have it in the bag with four holes to play and then played like the World No. 12,000, well and truly fluffing his lines.

The Bookie Bashing Football Coupons have allowed me to quietly get the new footie season off to a decent start so another 8+ points of profit there.

Also profitable – in the end – was Sys Analyst, but last week was the very epitome of the cliched “rollercoaster ride” we often use when we describe betting.  Friday was a really strong day, Saturday a complete blank, and Sunday another good day to ensure we got off the Bog Dipper smiling.  Forget the short term ups and downs though…I’m now running at an ROI 19% and that from using Smarkets only to place the bets.  Placing them hours after they are originally sent, I’m getting acceptable odds, and it’s working a dream.  That ROI figure I expect to reduce, but I’m sold on this as a great service I can happily use despite having no access to online books.

So, a great week, the overall ROI is running at a really strong 16%, and betting being betting, I’m expecting a bad weekend coming up. Let’s see.  Back next week.

Betting 2023-24

DD/HH: Staked 68.05pts, -7.1pts, roi -10.43%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -10.15pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf Outrights): Staked 53.45pts, +17.932pts, roi 33.54%, High: 23.187pts, DD: -5.235pts, Max DD: -5.235pts.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -8.692pt, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 3,833pts, -360.44pts, roi -9.4%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -522.83pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 281pts, +13.387pts, roi 4.76%, High: 16.731pts, DD: -3.344pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

NFL: n/a

PGA Profit: Staked 273pts, +63.298pts, roi 23.18%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -21.56pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 300.5pts, +57.945pts, roi 19.28%, High: 62.535pts, DD: -4.59pts, Max DD: -15.79pts.

Value Bets: Staked 15.5pts, +14.5pts, roi 93.54%, High: 14.5pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: £0pts.

TOTAL: roi 16.16%

It’s been a very good weekend’s punting, but more on the details of that in the results post on Wednesday.  But something happened on Saturday that has proven to be, if I’m being completely honest, something of a relief.  I managed to bag a substantial Lucky 15 return, the first of the year.

The reason for the relief is not due to any creeping thoughts about the efficacy of the Lucky 15 strategy and the power of the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker from which the bets are sourced.  I have always been very well aware that it can be a long time between waterholes with this approach to betting, and always felt that I ran somewhat hot during the second half of last year when I landed four or five big winning returns.  Nope, the reason for the relief is that the winning Lucky 15 on Saturday was the first time I’ve collected a good amount in cash from the bookmaker’s shop.

It is definitely easier to profit well with the Lucky 15 strategy when you have access to soft online books, Bet365 and Skybet in particular, with their enhanced places (and BOG concession for a little while at least).  There are not nearly so many favourable races when betting in cash in the offices, so to at least see it is possible is a welcome boost to the old miindset.  I knew deep down it was a matter of time.  It’s just reassuring for that time to arrive.  The profit wasn’t completely spectacular, but it was a four figure sum and it netted a return of almost 40 points, so nothing to complain about.  It was nice to be able to tip the staff, who undoubtedly make this the most welcoming and “nice” shop from the six or seven on my round.

Talking of Bookie Bashing, it has been great to see the training videos made available to members on their website.  The sheer amount of information available to subscribers, which can all contribute to making a profit by finding value, can be a little overwhelming at times.  The videos are so easy to follow though, and I’ve already started to look for my own value bets in addition to those posted on the Tracker by the BB team.  I’ll be listing these as Value Bets for recording purposes, but I’ll be concentrating my won efforts initially on Any Time Goalscorer and First Goalscorer markets, before seeing what I can find in other football markets, snooker, rugby, etc.

This widening of the search for value is something I’ve felt recently is necessary.  I mentioned last week that BetFred’s DD/HH concession is likely to throw up fewer bets this season as unlike last season when all Premier League matches carried DD/HH, this year it’s televised matches only.  To make this situation worse, very rarely does Fred offer value on big matches that come under scrutiny from a large number of people because they like a bet on the big game.  It’s no coincidence I feel, that I the two (yes, just two) DD/HH bets I had this weekend came in the Championship match on Saturday lunchtime, the lowest profile match being shown on TV.

Anyway, I feel in a good place.  Happy and settled with the services and strategies I’m following, and have now seen the proof I wanted to see that darned good money can be made from the shops.  Let’s hope we can now kick on.

Results update on Wednesday…

First weekend of the football season across a number of the major leagues in Europe, and suddenly the weekend became busy.  It was like awakening from a hibernation.

I’ve not been placing any value bets through the summer, but there were a number of opportunities highlighted by the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker that I was able to jump on.  With a long term injury essentially ending my cricket season early, I was able to get to the bookies when I needed to and was richly rewarded with six winners from nine bets.  This was my most profitable angle of the last week.

To be fair, there wasn’t that much competition across a week that ended the recent run of profitable weeks with a small overall loss recorded.

The first Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven bet of the new domestic Premier League season was a very happy one with Eddie Nketiah doing the business at 4/1.  Sweet as a nut to get a winner first up, and even sweeter that it happened to be an Arsenal player that did it!  One thing though is that BetFred is not this season offering this offer on every Premier League match as they have done up to this point.  They’ll be making the offer only on televised games it appears, which is going to have an impact on turnover and make losing runs last longer in terms of time, if not depth.  Oh well.  I guess this is why we have to constantly adapt and seek to maintain an edge.  With this in mind, I’ve started looking at finding value in the Anytime Goal Scorer markets, again using the Bookie Bashing tool and seeing how many and what bets I can place on the Exchanges.  More on that next week.

I had intended to stick down my first football coupons of the season too, on Saturday, but with football matches now having injury time lasting anything from ten minutes to two weeks it seems, I wasn’t able to get to the bookies in time for watching the tense last minutes of the Saturday lunch time kick off Arsenal match.

No returns in the golf, although watching Tommy Fleetwood miss a gimme put for a birdie and then not ever really convincing in the way he played was immensely frustrating Sunday night viewing.  He finished second by a single stroke.  Them’s the breaks I reckon.

Betting 2023-24 (from April 1st)

DD/HH: Staked 68.05pts, -7.1pts, roi -10.43%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -10.15pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf Outrights): Staked 53.45pts, +17.932pts, roi 33.54%, High: 23.187pts, DD: -5.235pts, Max DD: -5.235pts.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -8.692pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 3,833pts, -360.44pts, roi -9.4%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -522.83pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 281pts, +13.387pts, roi 4.76%, High: 16.731pts, DD: -3.344pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

NFL: n/a

PGA Profit: Staked 273pts, +63.298pts, roi 23.18%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -21.56pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 300.5pts, +57.945pts, roi 19.28%, High: 62.535pts, DD: -4.59pts, Max DD: -15.79pts .

Value Bets: Staked 15.5pts, +14.5pts, roi 93.54%, High: 14.5pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.

TOTAL: roi 11.34%

Allan of Sys Analyst sounded cross when he sent an email to members on Saturday morning.  The header said: “What idiot is backing this on the exchange now?”.

This was at four minutes past nine in the morning.  The first of the day’s bets had been sent out to members just a couple of minutes earlier.

I guess people may not realize – although if you’re a member of Sys Analyst I’d like to think you would – that backing a tipster’s bets on the Exchanges relatively early in the morning is a pretty dopey thing to do.  All that happens in what is generally a market lacking liquidity is that the bookmakers will see that money has gone or is queued up and they will cut the price they’re offering.  If you’re of a selfish disposition I suppose this doesn’t matter, but it must drive the tipster, who has the best interests of all their followers at heart, absolutely mad.  I know Wayne of Northern Monkey used to have real issues with this too.

The thing is, the prices generally will be available on the Exchanges when there is more liquidity anyway.  Since starting to follow Sys Analyst, I’ve placed a good number of bets using Smarkets only.  I’ve failed to at least get the “Minimum Price” just three times I think, and often get a better price than that quoted.  On Saturday, I didn’t place a Sys Analyst bet before 1.00 (I was out driving around all Saturday morning getting bets down in cash in the bookie offices) and placed every single bet at an acceptable price.  So why jump on as soon as tips have been released at 9.00 in the morning with all the inevitable knock on effects?

Talking of putting bets down in the offices, I got a couple of Lucky 15s down at the BetFred closest to me (my first stop on my “route”).  Opposite to this Fred’s, is a Ladbrokes, and I crossed the road to do the same in there.  Whilst coming out, the woman who had served me in BetFred walked in the door of the Ladbrokes.  Nightmare!

I turned around – not particularly swiftly, what with a slipped disc and all, pretended to be on my ‘phone talking to the missus, and hoped she didn’t notice me.  As soon as I could, I slipped out hoping she wouldn’t spot me.  If she did, she didn’t say anything, but this is the same person who I once encountered in another BetFred I visit regularly and had to think quickly of some good reason why I was in that one and not in the one she usually saw me in.

Honestly, the games we play…

I’ve not really much more to add to Monday’s post, with having been on holiday last week.  The only figures updated below are those for Weekly Golf Value/Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker and Sys Analyst.  As you might have read in the last post, both have pleasingly added to the total profit which is now at a high for the year to date (starting April 1st).

That’s the good news.  The not so good is that from the Lucky 15s I’ve stuck down since being back, I’ve barely got a horse to place!

So a short post tonight, and back into the swing of things to report back on next week.

Betting 2023-24

DD/HH: Staked 65.55pts, -17.1pts, roi -25.88%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -20.15pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf Outrights): Staked 52.4pts, +18.987pts, roi 36.23%, High: 23.187pts, DD: -4.2pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -8.692pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Weekly Golf Value/Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker: Staked 3,629pts, -156.44pts, roi -4.31%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -318.83pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 261pts, -16.731pts, roi 6.33%, High: 16.731pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

NFL:

PGA Profit: Staked 267pts, +69.298pts, roi 25.95%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -15.56pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 271pts, +62.535pts, roi 23.07%, High: 62.535pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -15.79pts.

Total ROI: 13.07%

Regular readers of the Bet Diary will be aware that over the years I have developed into being a firm advocate of NOT taking betting on holiday.  Far better to make sure the time away serves its purpose of refreshing and relaxing completely without any stressing over getting bets on and seeing how they do.  I started to go that way when the kids were young.  What muppet deliberately eats into family time during time that is supposed to be all about family?

My two are older now – 20 and 18 – so they don’t (quite!) need as much supervision as they once did!  They both came away with the missus and I last week though, possibly the last time we travel as a family for a while.  But this time I did take my laptop with me, simply as I hadn’t had chance to finish writing an article that I needed to get done.  I thought for half an hour, I could sit by the pool, get done what I needed to get done, sipping a glass of something chilled before taking another dip in the pool.  That’s not work, is it?

So as it happens, during siesta time post-lunch each day, everyone was dozing and sleeping off the food, bar me.  So I thought I’d spend ten minutes getting the Weekly Golf Value bets down, along with the Sys Analyst bets as Glorious Goodwood was on.  I didn’t muck about trying to get the minimum price in the way I do when I’m at home.  With the time difference between where I was and England, I just opened Smarkets, stuck the bets on about ten minutes before the first race, and in literally five minutes it was done.  It was so easy in fact, I thought I may as well do the same through the holiday.

In a way that rarely happens, I was rewarded handsomely.  Lucas Glover was a winning bet for WGV (I got 85 on him) and Sys Analyst tipped up some nice winners and donated a healthy profit too!  Happy days.  And for the sake of five – ten minutes a day on the laptop, when no-one else was doing anything than snoring peacefully, I was able to treat everybody to a really nice lunch on the last day.  Isn’t it nice when Lady Fortune smiles rather than snarls?