I’m very aware I still need to write a post providing some thoughts on the Value Bets derived from the various Tools and Trackers at Bookie Bashing, and on WinnerOdds Football. That will come very shortly, tomorrow with a fair wind. But for today, I want to bring everything up to speed for the first week of September.
Thankfully, after a pretty ropey July and August, things have taken something of an upturn. This is good. We like upturns. We don’t like what comes before an upturn, because to be an upturn you have to have a down turn. Down turns? No-one is a fan, eh?
After my moaning about how the break in domestic football to accommodate international games was having a detrimental impact on turnover, it was fantastic to see high turnover The Value Machine enjoy what can only be described as a ‘stormer’! Loads of bets each day – at least 30, sometimes 50+ – meant turnover was something I needn’t have worried about. Not only that, but the results were excellent too. Up to full stakes from the first of the month, and now 416 points up at an ROI of 21%.
A note of caution however, more to myself than aimed at anyone else. An ROI of 21% is WAY above what I am hoping for long term. I’m targeting somewhere between 7 and 9% ROI over time, so clearly the pace set by last week’s performance is unsustainable. I’ve determined that I should enjoy this rate of return whilst it lasts.
The other big winner last week was WinnerOdds Football, which after a fairly torrid few weeks enjoyed something of a bounce back. What you have just read for The Value Machine, rinse and repeat for WO Footie. An ROI on the week of 26.5% is way outside the margins of expectation, and is an example of very shot term positive variance if ever I’ve seen one. But after a period of negative variance, it is most welcome indeed.
Despite a chronic lack of bets, the Lucky 15s from the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker actually produced some profit with, put simply, more teams winning. None at particularly big odds, but enough to ensure a small pay out on a few tickets and one Lucky 15 saw all four teams win, albeit at shorter prices. Still, after what has been a pretty testing period, I’m quite happy with a bit of steady if not spectacular.
Finally, just the one player landing in the frame from the one tournament given the treatment by Weekly Golf Value, and due to the number of places available at the bookmaker I was able to get on with, I had to share the place returns on that. Still, no real damage done on the week.
And in some ways leaving the best until last, a lovely winner for Sys Analyst on Sunday. Tribalist, running at Longchamp was the 25/1 SP winner, but I was fortunate enough to get 36.0 on the Exchange. Some I believe, were able to get even bigger, but I sure ain’t complaining! I really hope, for Allan’s sake as well as my own, that Sys Analyst really builds on this now and before we know it, reaches a new profit high point.
The only dark spot last week were the Value Bets, and I managed to exacerbate the non-performance issue by being what can only be described as a 24 carat plonker! Who didn’t check that Marcus Thuram wasn’t actually in the starting 11 for France’s match against Italy? Who thought he was taking a great price of 2.11 for him to have at least one shot on target? Who was stung by Thuram coming on with about 15 minutes to go? And who was the muppet who clearly had his eyes shut when shooting because he managed two shots in that limited time, but neither of them were accurate enough to trouble the goalkeeper.
Only for one of those questions above, is the answer not, ‘Me’! 🙁
September Figures (stakes normalised):
Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 75pts, 55.36pts, roi 73.81%, roc 3.69%.
Weekly Golf Value: Staked 94pts, -44.5pts, roi 11.39-47.34%, roc -2.22%.
Sys Analyst: Staked 55.8pts, +191.3pts, roi 342.83%, roc 9.56%.
Value Bets (BB): Staked 106pts, -106pts, roi -100%, roc -5.3%.
Winner Odds Football: Staked 902pts, +239.85pts, roi 26.59%, roc 11.99%.
TOTAL: Staked 3,202.8pts, +752.1pts, roi 23.48%, roc 6.54%.
