A reader of the Bet Diary has emailed to ask how I go about using the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker, and I thought it might make the subject of a decent Bet Diary post.
Let me start off by saying that I am more than aware that the performance levels I’ve reached to date from just 460 bets is ridiculously high, that the amount of positive variance I’ve benefited from is, I’m pretty sure, the highest level I’ve ever experienced in my betting career, and that such a rate of return (125% ROI) is unsustainable. In fact that ROI figure is about five times the level I am optimistically hopeful about hitting long-term, and I’m kinda braced for a losing run because of the extent to which the Tracker is overperforming for me at present.
The second thing I need to say is that what is about to follow – over two (or more, possibly) posts – is a breakdown of my way of going about using the Tracker. My own, personal methodology. It is not the right or correct way to use it. It is simply my way. It’s important to realise that the Tracker is highlighting horses whose price to place on an each way bet holds a positive expectation, or +EV (+ Expected Value). How any individual goes about harnessing this value is entirely up to them.
So, let’s explain.
I use the Racing Tracker Pro, not the ‘basic’ Tracker. Why? Well, sounds posher, innit? I really didn’t give it much thought, and just used the ‘Pro’ version from the off. And I use it to find four horses of +EV that I can stick into an each way Lucky 15.
After reading the data analysis when penning the review of the Racing Tracker for the SBC Magazine, I thought the suggestion to perhaps look to spread the odds within each Lucky 15 sounded sensible. The odds ‘bands’ I draw for myself have been done so completely arbitrarily. There’s no deep logic behind them. My ‘ideal’ Lucky 15 will have at least one horse priced 17/2 or lower, two priced between 10/1 and 14/1, and one at 16/1 or higher (going up to 25/1).
However, if there are two or three suitable horses lower than 17/2 and only one or two between 10/1 and 14/1, I’ll stick the two or three in the Lucky 15 with one longer priced beast. As to which horses I take, I simply go for the one in each odds band that carries the most +EV. Simple.
Talking of EV, I do set the tracker to provide horses of 102+ EV or more.
And that’s it. It really is a very simple and basic approach. My feeling when it comes to betting strategies and approaches that the simpler the better. The Tracker is doing all the complex stuff. I just need to try to harness its power using an approach that is very simple, easily repeatable, and doesn’t give me cause to think. I’ve found in life – and my wife would vouch for this – that I am something of an overthinker. But with maturity (a kinder word than ‘age’), has come the realisation that I overthink things and therefore, I take great and very deliberate measures to stop myself from doing so.
I don’t use the ‘Confidence’ rating on the Tracker at all. Although I feel more comfortable taking horses that have steamed in price than those that have drifted, I don’t deliberately target them, and interestingly two of my most lucrative Lucky 15s contained more than one horse that had drifted in price. And I tend to check the Tracker each hour from about 11.00 to 3.00. Again though, I’m not rigid in this. I want my betting to be enjoyable, and not getting too tied up in rules and regulations is one way I achieve this. I may miss the odd day each week because work is particularly busy (I know I’m fortunate in that I work from home so placing bets online is straightforward) or I’ve got something on. There was a day not so long ago when the sun was shining and still held some real warmth, so I thought I’d make the most of it before the cold and darkness of winter sets in by taking the mutt out for a long walk. I didn’t sweat about not placing any Lucky 15s, because the Tracker will be working the next day. And the next, and the one after that, and so on.
Using this approach, I usually end up taking three or four Lucky 15s each day during the week, and perhaps more (up to eight) on a Saturday now that my cricket season has finished.
Next week, I’ll talk about the bits around the edges. How sustainable is my use of the Racing Tracker, what measures I’m taking to future-proof my use of the Bookie Bashing service in its entirety, how I aim to grow things, and more.
Until then…
