You may recall that a couple of Bet Diary posts back, I mentioned that I would be using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to find my weekly golf bets more, and rely on the Weekly Golf Value tips less. The reason for this planned shift was that after a couple of bookmaker accounts had started to impose staking restrictions I was finding it harder to get on every one of the WGV players at either the correct price, or to the correct stake, or to both!
I’ve been on this path before, and know where it leads.
The thinking behind using the Tracker to a greater extent is based on two factors.
- I can set it up to take prices from bookmakers I can still get on with without any problem; and
- I’ll not be following the crowd lumping on the same golfers at the same books as soon as the WGV email comes through (which might, you never know, slightly increase the chances of staying under bookmaker radars for a little bit longer than might otherwise be the case).
I’ve tended to look at the Tracker at around midday on the Wednesday, which is fairly close to the time I know Bookie Bashing do the same to produce the list of golfers for WGV members to back that week. Unsurprisingly then, in the two weeks I’ve been doing this there has been some considerable overlap between the golfers I’ve backed and those put up in the WGV email.
Before doing this, I have had to mentally prepare myself. It is inevitable that at some point, WGV is going to put up a winner that I haven’t backed, and I guess I’m not going to like that. Interesting psychology this. I’ve had to forcibly remind myself that of course, there will also be times when WGV don’t put up a winner that I’m on (more on this in a moment), but in the same way that an unlucky losing bet seems to remain in the conscious for longer than a lucky winning bet, so the negative thought process here feels like it is overriding the positive. Which is daft.
WGV look to cover around 15% of the field in terms of win probability in any one event. I am looking to do the same, but using the Tracker for myself. Over time therefore, our results should look very similar as long as we are both taking value prices at roughly similar odds.
Another difference I’ve noticed over the past two weeks is the staking. On the Bookie Bashing site, there is a Golf Staking Calculator that I use. This has however, generally speaking, meant that I have been staking slightly less on certain golfers that WGV also put up.
This brings us to this last week, which has been something of a triumph for WGV/Bookie Bashing golf betting!
First, the European Tour event in France. Dan Bradbury was put up by WGV, and had also picked him out as a suitable bet using the Tracker. The difference between the two was that the stake WGV assigned to Bradbury was literally twice the size of mine, and the recommended book was one offering 125/1…that I can’t use. Instead, I was on at 90/1 (one reason I imagine the stake was lower, as an iteration of Kelly staking is used whereby a larger stake is assigned when there is perceived to be a higher level of value within any given bet). I’m never going to complain about a 90/1 winner! I merely point this out to illustrate where using the Tracker may have a different outcome than simply following the prescriptive WGV list.
So, a great golf betting weekend. But, it was only half way through…
On to the US tournament over in Utah. I was on rookie Matt McCarty from the Tracker. WGV was not.
McCarty went into the final round two shots ahead and there was really no sign of rookie nerves throughout the last 18 holes. He won by three shots, and I was on another winner, this time at 50/1! An example of where using the Tracker has paid off. Like we said above, there will be times it works the other way, and it’ll be important to remember this win when that happens.
A great golf betting weekend turned into an exceptional one. Happy days.
Overall, last week was a pretty decent one, helped in no small part by the golfing success. It would be unfair to say that it was only the golf that contributed however. It was generally speaking, a decent all round portfolio performance that has clawed back about two thirds of the previous week’s sharp and horrible losses.
More on that however, in the next post. In the meantime, here are the figures…
October Figures (stakes normalised):
Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 445pts, -0.19pts, roi -0.04%, roc -0.01%.
Weekly Golf Value: Staked 452pts, +370.1pts, roi 81.88%, roc 18.5%.
Sys Analyst: Staked 339pts, -250.8pts, roi -73.98%, roc -12.54%.
Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,159.52pts, -548.07pts, roi -47.26%, roc -27.4%.
The Value Machine: Staked 3,160pts, +48.34pts, roi 1.52%, roc 2.41%
Winner Odds Football: Staked 2,063pts, -124.43pts, roi -6.03%%, roc -6.22%.
Trial Service: Staked 370.5pts, +136.16pts, roi 36.75%, roc 20.17%
TOTAL: Staked 7,781.27pts, -359.82pts, roi -4.62%, roc -3.78%.
