Looking at my figures, by the time the weekend had been accounted for I had placed 61 Lucky 15s made up of football teams highlighted as +EV by the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker. By the 24th of the month, I would have aimed to have struck 96. In other words I’m roughly a third down on anticipated turnover. The reason is the stupid, mind numbingly boring, who-gives-a-sh*t international break. If you want to know why I’m really so anti-international football outside of the major Championship Finals, this is one big reason. They can seriously impact my turnover, and therefore in the long run, profits!
Value Bets are also notably down, so it’s not just the EP Tracker being impacted here.
Moving on before I get too worked up and hot under the collar…
A bit of a recovery for the month launched by said EP Tracker with one L15 seeing three teams at very good odds coming up with the wins, including Tottenham at City. Very mixed feelings about that one, got to admit. Funny hearing some football commentators/journalists doing a quick turnaround from dismissing Sp*rs as a flop after their home defeat to Ipswich last time out to now proclaiming them as favourites for a Top 4 spot. Talk about not being able to contextualize. I imagine Sp*rs are somewhere in the middle – not a flop and a team that might challenge for the Top 4. But then that’s the mainstream football media today – I guess being rational doesn’t garner clicks.
It was nice to see using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker pay off with a winner with Maverick McNealy landing odds of 30/1 over in the US. By using the Tracker I’m (generally) backing more golfers albeit to slightly lower stakes than I would by simply following the Weekly Golf Value picks. The hope is that I don’t sacrifice too much by ROI but do smoothen out slightly the pathway to profit. McNealy wasn’t showing exceptional perceived positive value and in fact carried less than all but one of the other golfers I backed in the tournament. It must have been over 105% as that is where I draw a line for what I bet on, but it would have been close and at relatively short odds the stake wasn’t a heavy one. But it’s a winner I wouldn’t otherwise have had, a bit of profit on the week instead of a loss, and it tides me over nicely waiting for the more heavily staked, bigger priced winner that will inevitably come.
Not too much to report elsewhere. WinnerOdds Football had another solid week, and in fact enjoyed an exceptional Saturday, but sadly a poor Sunday undid much, but not all, of the previous day’s good work.
November Figures (stakes normalised):
Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 915pts, -213pts, roi -23.27%, roc -14.2%.
Weekly Golf Value: Staked 513pts, +43.25pts, roi 8.43%, roc 2.88%.
Sys Analyst: Staked 1,019.15pts, +535.18pts, roi 52.51%, roc 26.75%.
Value Bets (BB): Staked 590.07pts, +26.18pts, roi 4.43%, roc 2.61%.
The Value Machine: Staked 2,510pts, -170.88pts, roi -6.8%, roc -11.39%
Winner Odds Football: Staked 3,713pts, +346.37pts, roi 9.32%, roc 23.09%.
Trial Service: Staked 1,153.88pts, -54.45pts, roi -4.71%, roc -3.63%
TOTAL: Staked 10,414.1pts, +512.65pts, roi 4.92%, roc 5.69%.
