What a grind October has been. At times, it has felt like ridiculously hard going. Halfway through the month and the drawdown was reaching the point of becoming really boring. Nobody likes drawdowns, but this one just felt interminable. Why? Perhaps because with a couple of services now being such high volume, a lot of bets were being put down, which makes the grind feel even more grindier than normal. I dunno, just a theory, but one that makes sense to me at least.
Ultimately, by the time the last race yesterday had been run and the last football match had been drawn to an end by three sharp peeps of the ref’s whistle, I had somehow managed to scramble into green territory. Just.
And this is where it gets a little awkward. Because I have the service currently being trialled, ahead of an SBC review, to thank for the fact that October wasn’t a complete dud. And I swore that whilst trialling the service, I wouldn’t write about it in here, merely post the figures. I don’t think it’s fair to go into any detail at all at this stage, and that will remain the case. But I can’t completely ignore something that within a couple of weeks or so has managed to double its bank, and which has played such a prominent part on my keeping my nose just above the profit and loss line overall. And all this to what is essentially less than half a bank assigned to it compared to the others (at this stage).
The big damage has been done by the Value Bets sourced from the various Trackers on the Bookie Bashing site. Concentrating mainly on Cards and Enhanced Specials, I’ve definitely been on the wrong side of variance. The levels of EV I’m taking are high, and I’ve not been drawn into striking bets with lower levels of value. Perhaps if I had and had increased volume, it would be a different story, but the reality is that circumstances have meant I’ve had to cut back on the number of bets I’m searching for and striking, and so settled on this approach. I know that as long as I continue to get the value, results will turn. Just waiting for that ‘Heater’.
A very similar story with The Value Machine, which in the end settled just the wrong side of P&L this month. Again to reduce the number of bets I was placing, I tweaked my parameters for what I would back and not (basically by reducing the maximum odds limit). Since doing that, results have improved significantly – again only as a consequence of variance. I’ve no idea how I would have fared without the tweak. Perhaps I’d have made an amazing profit. But I did tweak, results improved, and that’s where I am.
A word for those at Winning Odds Football, many of whom I believe are living in the area around Valencia so shockingly affected by the flash floods this past week. Experiencing that must have been beyond terrifying, the consequent damage to life and property devastating, and from an email sent to subscribers I know some at WO were badly hit although mercifully have remained safe. Thoughts are with you, folks.
As for results this past month, again a poor first half followed by a much better second and a strong finish. After what was a great September for me, I’m hoping that the momentum from this this recent upturn continues and we get back to winning times. To be honest though, when you hear about what has happened in Spain this week, it kinda puts betting profits and losses into context.
A good month using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker and I’ve got to admit, it was pretty satisfying to get a winner that I wouldn’t have had if I’d have just stuck to the Weekly Golf Value picks. And I know 100% that roles there will be reversed at some point, and WGV be on a winner I’m not, but after a month of sourcing my own bets, I’m pretty pleased. I find myself backing a few more players each week and covering a slightly bigger percentage of the field in terms of win probability, which over time ought to reduce the variance a little. We’ll see. My main reasons for changing my approach though are that having lost a couple of accounts I was finding that getting on one or two of the WGV tips was problematic, and that by using the Tracker I can “beat” the WGV email – if only by a matter of half an hour or so – and that my money isn’t going into the bookmakers at a very similar time to those of other WGV members. I’m not sure how much of a factor this is. Perhaps not as much with golf as can be the case when following a popular horse racing tipster with a large following all trying to snap up the best prices at the same time? Certainly I didn’t experience any real price pressure with the WGV bets, so I don’t think the two are comparable. But to be completely honest, I don’t know with anything approaching certainty. But I do know my new approach using the Golf Tracker isn’t going to do any harm in this respect, and may possibly be beneficial.
And finally, the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker has had a very solid month, without hitting the really big wins that can suddenly shoot the profit levels up. Got one 4/4 Lucky 15 up, and a couple of 3/4s, which ain’t at all shabby. The bank growth of 7.74% for the month reflects this, but that ROI is about half what we might expect long term. I think this month the EP Tracker has been a Ford Mondeo – nothing wrong with it, gets you from A to B but doesn’t really thrill, whereas I see the EP Tracker more like an Aston Martin – plenty of ooomph and a bit of a head turner.
I think I’ve been typing too long. Here’s to a good November…
October Figures (stakes normalised):
Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 1,345pts, +116.14pts, roi 8.63%, roc 7.74%.
Weekly Golf Value: Staked 970.5pts, +233.58pts, roi 24.06%, roc 11.67%.
Sys Analyst: Staked 643pts, -137.56pts, roi -21.39%, roc -6.87%.
Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,648.19pts, -685.94pts, roi -41.61%, roc -34.29%.
The Value Machine: Staked 7,365pts, -73.29pts, roi -0.99%, roc -4.88%
Winner Odds Football: Staked 4,706pts, -99.63pts, roi -2.11%, roc -6.64%.
Trial Service: Staked 1,157.25pts, +757.45pts, roi 65.45%, roc 100.99%
TOTAL: Staked 17,834.94pts, +110.75pts, roi 0.62%, roc 1.13%.
