As you’ll read below the timing of this post, which explains how I use the Bookie Bashing Player xG and Bet Builder Tools, isn’t great. As always though, performance is all about the long term and until fairly recently, the suite of trackers and tools were doing a fine job for me. Just now though, not so good.
The Player xG Tool is one that I used a lot more frequently than I do now, simply down to restrictions on time. The Tool provides a fair price for players to score at any time (AGS – Anytime Goal Scorer), and to score first (FGS – First Goal Scorer), before comparing to prices available at Betfair Exchange and calculating the level of Expected Value in the Exchange price, whether that be negative or positive. I should also mention that it takes the BetFred price for FGS and calculates EV if striking a bet utilizing the bookmaker’s Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven concession.
It’s a valuable Tool, and one that one day, when I have more time free, I plan to use more frequently.
As for my “rules”, well, they’re very simple. I won’t take a bet that is indicated at being anything less than 105% +EV, and I wait for team news. When team news has been confirmed, the Tool normalises the individual Player xG to total the Team xG, and so will be more efficient that pre-team news. On a practical level, it also means that by waiting, we know at least the player we’ve backed is definitely playing. We don’t want to be backing someone who perhaps comes on at some point in the last 20 minutes from the substitute’s bench with limited time to make a scoring impact. I have on occasion gone early, but only if I’ve been very confident that player in question will start.
Have I been burnt by going early? Yes. Yes, I have. And it’s not great, which is why I now wait. The exception to this was when I was getting to the Shops much more frequently and using using the DD/HH value. But alas my shop visits are relatively rare currently. I’m sure that will change at some point.
I should mention that all my Goalscorer bets are placed using the Exchanges. Maybe Betfair, although I find that Smarkets often provide slightly better prices. Not all the time by any means, but often enough to merit checking.
The Tool I use possibly the most is the Bet Builder Tool, where I construct the Enhanced Specials that the Exchanges put up to find value. The majority of these bets evolve around Player Stats, typically Shots on Target or Cards or Saves, the prices for which come from the BB Player Stats Tool.
It’s not unusual to find fantastic value. As an example, today – Tuesday – I’ve backed Viktor Gyokeres to have 3 or more shots on target in tonight’s Champions League match between Sporting and Borussia Dortmund. I’ve got 6.0 (5/1) from the Enhanced Specials at BetDaq, where the Tool has the fair price at 4.91. That’s +EV of 122.2%!
Most of my bets carry +EV of between 105 and 110% (again, I don’t dip below the 105% marker), and I stake £x amount to win a set £y.
As you’re about to read, my various ‘Value Bets’ are going through the mill just at the moment, but the Enhanced Specials/Player Stats bets are between them running at an ROI of 22.5% for 2025 to date, despite the recent drawdown. This ROI is due to come down as that rate is not sustainable.
Bets take me about 5-10 minutes each day to find, and I tend to look at both lunchtime and early evening. So not a huge amount of time investment for the Bet Builder Tool on its own.
As for last week’s betting, well, this month has started off mirroring the pattern of last month. That being, a bit of a stodgy time of it.
Every single ‘strand’ of my Value Bets mini-portfolio is currently on its deepest drawdown of the year to date, which individually doesn’t really amount to much but when put altogether, has meant that February has got off to a losing start. Add to that the fact that Sys Analyst is in a bit of a trough and that The Value Machine has a pattern for me of losing run/losses recouped to get close to break even/losing run, then it’s all a bit of a struggle. Waiting for that ‘Heater’!
In a more positive light WinnerOdds Football is running at an ROI of 5.1% for February, its marker for long term performance, and eSoccer Edge has – for me anyway – been on a strong run of form. You may remember last month that an unexpected spike in goals, the reasons for which could really only be guessed at (even if in a fairly educated way) had resulted in a bit of a sudden drawdown. All those losses have been clawed back and in fact the profit is now standing at a high since I started following, with an overall bank growth of 16.4%.
So the current feeling is one of going slightly backwards although not at an alarming rate, and being patient waiting for the time where three or more of the services/strategies all find some form simultaneously.
Febuary 2025 (stakes normalised):
Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 560.99pts, -312.94pts, ROI -55.78%, ROC -20.86%, Drawdown -312.94pts, Max DD -312.94pts
Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 251pts, -63.3pts, ROI -25.21%, ROC -4.22%, Drawdown -63.3pts, Max DD -63.3pts
eSoccer Edge: Staked 1,395pts, +170.91pts, ROI 12.25%, ROC 11.39%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -97.12pts
Sys Analyst: Staked 61.5pts, -61.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -4.1%, Drawdown -61.5pts, Max DD -61.5pts
The Value Machine: Staked 580pts, -53.87pts, ROI -9.28%, ROC -3.59%, Drawdown -53.87pts, Max DD -195.19pts
WinnerOdds Football: Staked 2,204pts, +113.51pts, ROI 5.15%, ROC 3.78%, Drawdown -22.43pts, Max DD -97.9pts
TOTAL: Staked 5,048.99pts, -207.19pts, ROI -4.1%, ROC -2.3%, Drawdown 207.19pts, Max DD -282.11pts
