Oh dear.
July Total ROI: -3.07%.
July Total ROC: -3.05%.
On the face of it, that is far from a disastrous month. Actually in reality, that is a far from disastrous month. But how you feel about your betting at any moment in time is likely informed by how things are going at that moment. As bettors, we do our best not to live in the moment, but psychology is a strange old beast.
Look, I have no concerns in the slightest. Have seen a lot worse at times over the years. But I’d be lying if I said I was as happy with betting after the last seven days, each one of them having produced a loss, as I would be if the last seven days had produced a profit. It’s similar to football. When Arsenal lose, I’m old enough and (just about) mature enough to get over it fairly quickly and not let it affect life (trust me, it once did!), but when they win then all is good with the world and that lovely warm glow makes me feel happy inside. My betting is not giving me any warm glow!
Context is also a thing. Eight days ago, I was heading towards a good month. Three Weekly Golf Value winners in as many July weeks had set things up nicely. And in fact, I am scratching my head wondering how that’s happened and yet the month has ended in the red. I mean, come on!
The worst offender for me in straight cash terms has been Winner Odds Football. Again, it was sailing along, up towards the 5% target ROI, which with the turnover it provides – even when not at “normal” levels due to time of year – means the profit is coming in nicely. A few days later and bang! -7.9% ROI for the month, and three losing weeks in a row. Can’t wait for the seasons to kick off across Europe and maybe…I don’t know…the Tibetan Women’s 3rd Division…to gather steam, and more bets will be placed and things will right themselves.
The Value Bets have had a stinker of a month, down -23.25% ROI. The Euros didn’t really pay off for me in any major way, and since they ended, it’s been downhill all the way.
Next we have Sys Analyst, at -43.3% ROI and -18.46% ROC (a shade better than the Value Bets’ -19.2% ROC). I was hoping the Goodwood meeting this week might provide turnover and a recovery, but as of yesterday, bets have been few and the recovery is yet to take place.
I’ve been very quiet with the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker, striking only a few Lucky 15s. I don’t want to draw too much unnecessary attention to the B365 account by backing a load of teams which don’t play for four or five days. Have decided to keep this really quiet until the leagues come back in a couple of weeks time before really looking to hit these hard again.
And so finally, the one bright spark of the month and the incredible form of Weekly Golf Value. Three winners, eh. Bloomin’ good, that.
So that’s July done and dusted and thank Dennis Bergkamp for that! It’s going to be a very quiet start to August too, as I’m away on my holibobs to Italy for sun, peace, food, wine and reading. And all that means no betting. In fact, not taking the laptop and the ‘phone is being turned off!
I’ll be back the week after…
All figures ‘normalised’ to allow direct comparison between services.
EP Tracker: Staked: 180pts, P&L: -19.5pts, ROI: -10.83%, ROC: -1.3%, High: 0pts, Drawdown: -19.5pts, Max DD: -54.59pts
Weekly Golf Value: Staked: 1,099pts, P&L: +694.19pts, ROI: 63.16%, ROC: 46.27%, High: 917.19pts, DD: -223pts, Max DD: -223pts
Sys Analyst: Staked: 633.5pts, P&L: -276.99pts, ROI: -43.72%, ROC: -18.46%, High: 0pts, DD: -276.99pts, Max DD: -276.99pts
Value Bets: Staked: 1,237.5pts, P&L: -287.82pts, ROI: -23.25%, ROC: -19.18%, High: 0pts, DD: -287.82pts, Max DD: -326.39pts
Winner Odds: Staked: 4,301pts, P&L: -340pts, ROI: -7.9%, ROC: -22.66%, High: 122.57pts, DD: -461.77pts, Max DD: -470.17pts
PS. Warm Glow. Good name for a racehorse, that.
