Losing runs can hit you like a train.
The week started off fine. Not many bets, but a small profit on Monday and Tuesday had kept things ticking along fine. And then bam! By close of play Sunday night, I find myself in the midst of the deepest drawdown I’ve suffered yet this year. And who knows when it will start to right itself again. That’s the pain of losing runs. You just have to keep doing what you’re doing until the gambling God’s appetite for sadism has been sated.
Tom of Bookie Bashers puts it well. He describes a losing run as something to endure, stay in the game through, and know that the heater will be turned on again at some point. It’s waiting for the warmth that tests us, and let’s be honest, it’s a test that many fail. What never surprises me though, no matter how long I play this game for, is the speed with which situations change. It was only 10 days or so ago when I was very firmly on track for a decent month. Now, I’m licking wounds and eyeing up the neighbour’s cat as a potential sacrificial victim.
What is even more difficult to get my head around, is that Weekly Golf Value had been picking winners for fun and bringing home the proverbial bacon. Even now, after a week with absolutely no returns from either of the two tournaments, the ROI for July stands at 63% and the bank growth at 46%. That is seriously impressive tipping, and yet I’m on the biggest bump encountered on the road that is 2024 so far! Thank the Big Fella WGV has been so impressive! Had it not been, I wouldn’t be licking wounds, more demanding amputations.
Sys Analyst is having a real struggle at the moment with not one return from a number of horses given across Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Allan has promised some results analysis soon and that will make for an interesting read. If ever there is a chap to soothe the worries and fevered brow of someone going through a “dip”, it is he. He’ll bounce back. Hopefully it will be through the Glorious Goodwood Festival that starts tomorrow. I can think of no better place to bring a halt to losing misery than the Sussex Downs with top class racing and the sun out.
This is the first “extended” losing run I’ve encountered with Winner Odds Football too. Betting turnover is notably down, as you would expect at this time of year, but even then I find myself slightly surprised to have had five consecutive losing days, which is madness really. Five days is nothing, but I’d kinda become accustomed to just making a steady profit day after day, that this losing nonsense has come as a jolt to the system. For the month now my ROI is down at -5%, and overall, after 747 bets, the ROI is just 1.87%. That will over time push up towards 5%, so you can see by how much it’s underperforming. Again, nothing at all to worry about.
The Value Bets have proven to be very disappointing this month although the overall profit remains strong (8.3% ROI). This month has been a bit of a disaster though, with some heavily staked odds on bets going down. Currently at -24% ROI for July!!
Have just started putting a handful of Lucky 15s on again from the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker, but no real success as yet. A very small loss…and frankly right now, I’ll grab that with both hands and cling on for dear life!
I’ll have a July review out for you later this week (probably Thursday).
