OK, so look. This isn’t supposed to happen. It’s got to the stage where I’m finding this a little disturbing, truth be told.
Betting on golf….supposed to be loads of losing weeks and months, right? Big odds means big drawdowns, right? Weeks between winners – got to concentrate on the long term, right?
Yeah, right. It’s winners, baby! Winners, winners, chicken dinners. Getting wins in the golf is shelling peas, mate.
Seriously, I do feel just slightly unnerved. Weekly Gold Golf Value has done it again. Three weeks, three wins (although I wasn’t on the first of them). This one at 12/1, but the most heavily staked of those given. It’s insane and honestly, in all my time in betting following tipsters, I fail to remember there ever being such a run. Not to the extent where a service has literally more than doubles its bank in such a ridiculously short space of time. But you know what this means, don’t you? Yup, it means there’s going to come a time when we see a reversion to the mean, and that is going to involve losers. There’s got to come a time, as things are evened up somewhat, when a dog runs onto the green to swallow the ball just before it drops into the 18th hole to give our guy the tournament win at 100/1. You just know it’s going to happen. But when? That’s the thing, and that’s what is unnerving me. I don’t like it when things go too well. Well, I do, but you know what I mean…
In the meantime, all I can do is doff the old cap in WGV’s direction and hope that when it undergoes its “correction”, PGA Profit will kick into winning action to keep the overall profit line moving in the right direction. Blank this week too, for Golf Insider.
Talking of GI, members received an interesting document on staking strategies this week. Following an audit of the numbers and an evaluation of several approaches to staking, the conclusion was reached that level staking was the most efficient. I find that interesting because it goes a little against the grain when it comes to tipsters. You may notice in SBC reviews there is always a comparison provided between a tipster’s performance to advised and to level staking, with kudos attached to those who accentuate their edge via efficient staking. Golf Insider and Weekly Golf Value – same sport, one level staking, the other variable staking. I guess it takes all sorts to crack the betting nut.
(PS. A huge apology to PGA Profit. I’ve been made aware that an email was sent on Sunday with an in-play bet on Patrick Cantlay at 28/1, each way. Somehow – by dint of being a complete plonker! – I have somehow managed to delete it without reading and therefore missed out on the place return when Cantlay finished 2nd)
Golf Insider (200pts): Staked 19pts, +0.95pts, roi 5%, roc 0.47%, High 14.95pts, CDD: -14.05pts, Max DD: -14.05pts
PGA Profit (500): Staked 65pts, -65pts, roi -100%, roc -13%, High 0pts, DD: -65pts, Max CDD: -65pts
Weekly Golf Value (1,000): 440pts, +984.60pts, roi 223.77%, roc 98.46%, High 984.60pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.
Golf portfolio: ROI 129.22%, ROC 28.64%.
*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown
