With Christmas just around the corner, I’m going to hit pause on the usual performance update until after Boxing Day. There’s a lot of sport coming up and, if I’m honest, I fully expect to be watching, betting, and generally overindulging rather than sensibly collating numbers over the festive period. Normal service will resume once the dust settles.

What that normal service will look like is the usual figures focused examination of how it’s all been going over the last week or so, which will bring December as a month more or less up to speed.

Looking ahead, the first post of 2026 will be a full Review of 2025, but remember, by that time updates and posts will be available exclusively to Smart Betting Club members. It’ll be a proper look back at how the portfolio performed over the year and what we can take from it going forward.

In the meantime, thanks as always for following along, and I hope you have a great Christmas if you celebrate it.  If you don’t, then I hope you enjoy a thoroughly relaxing and enjoyable holiday period.

See you on the other side…

I read something on the SharpBetting website a few weeks ago that struck a chord.  Talking around how to deal with a particularly poor run of results one weekend, the author sought advice from his business partner.  The steer he received was to keep to the plan, to continue betting, and in fact aim to up the volume of bets being struck.  In other words, to trust the process, but do more of the process.

It makes sense.  If you believe in your edge, and in the law of large numbers, the trick is to bring the effect large numbers have to bear as quickly as possible.  Hurry through the bad variance and run towards the light as fast as your betting legs can carry you!

It’s with all this in mind that I have turned my thoughts to 2026.

I’ve seen many opinions expressed over the past few days as to how the recent Budget will impact bookmakers, and the consequences to us bettors.  Not much of what I’ve seen and heard has been positive.  Shorter odds, decreased bonuses and offers, and even faster account restrictions are being predicted, as books look to pass on the burden of the cost of the additional tax they must pay to their customers.

Some, or even all of this may turn out to be true.  But does that mean we should all give up trying to make a profit from the bookmaker?  No, it doesn’t.  It does mean perhaps, that we must look to adapt what we do and how we go about doing it.

I’m extremely confident there will always be edges to exploit.  These may well turn out to be different edges to those we exploit now, but this is what makes what we do with our betting so interesting.  The betting world we live in is constantly evolving, and we must evolve with it.

I’m highly optimistic about 2026 and beyond.  We may need to be shrewd, and I am looking at ways I can evolve my own betting and become more shrewd.  Where will I bet, how will I bet, and on what I will bet?  These are the questions I’m looking forward to answering, describing the process for, and doing deep dives into, within the pages of the Bet Diary.

It is in this context that we are making the Bet Diary content available exclusively to Smart Betting Club members.  

The broad plan is to up my personal betting volume in 2026, exploring and utilising all the resources available to me do help me do so.

What are my current thoughts in terms of what I’ll be following in 2026?

Well, there’s no need to throw the baby out with the bath water.  There’s nothing I’m currently using that I feel no longer has an edge in their respective markets.  Here is a run down.

Horse Racing

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker: finds value in the Place part of the prices.  I use the bespoke Bookie Bashing Algo as the data metric used to calculate EV, and then look to combine +EV horses into Lucky 15s, either placed at the one or two online books that still allow me to do so, and in cash in BetFred, Ladbrokes and William Hill shops.  These past few weeks I’ve also looked to back some of the horses carrying a higher level of EV as each way singles, and will be looking to ramp up this particular strategy from January.

Football

SharpBetting Football: football bets derived from a model covering a huge breadth of leagues around the world.  Backed predominantly as singles but also Multiples to compound value.  You can read more about it and why I’m such a fan in this post, originally published back in May.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons Tracker: currently – and I emphasis the word currently – there is one specific coupon, provided by William Hill shops, that I use exclusively.  The reason for this is that I’ve found that the prices of each selection identified as holding value remain steady with minimal price cuts.  However, I am very much open to exploring other coupon options, and indeed there is work going on behind the scenes that should help in that process. SBC members watch this space!

The Transfer Flow: my betting equivalent to A Good Heart by Fergal Sharkey (yeah, you need to be of a certain vintage to get that reference…it was the first Single (vinyl, kids) I bought, and as a ‘pop’ song, is something of a guilty pleasure).  No SBC analysis, I’ve gone out on a bit of a limb, but its cheap, run by a guy with an exceptional track record in the football betting industry, and I like the cut of his jib.  Asian Handicaps – Premier League, Championship, and Champions’ League only.  Easy markets to profit from, right?  Right.

Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven via the Bookie Bashing Player xG Tool: or as it became known for a few weeks in the autumn, the ‘Erling Haaland Personal Pension Fund’.

Golf

Weekly Golf Value: like an old pair of slippers and cosy pyjamas (Christ alive, I really am getting old!), a service I feel so, so comfortable with.  Fortunately golf is the one sport that the major books have yet to stop me from betting on online by imposing restrictions that reduce stakes to pennies.  How long that will last, who knows, but as things stand, it’s steady as she goes for 2026.  Read more here.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker (Each Way Doubles): …BUT…there will come a day when those online restrictions will hit!  And so with a nod to the future, the transition into golf betting using cash in shops has started.  A strategy of putting +EV golfers into doubles across tournaments is one with which variance is going to have a big old say, but when variance is in a more benevolent mood….Whooosh!  If I don’t have to take a suitcase to the bookies at some point in 2026 for them to fill it with used reddies, I’ll be sorely disappointed!  Have a look here for a great strategy video, if you haven’t watched it already!

American Football

Touchdown Profit: low volume, but great long-term record from a highly skilled and experienced tipster.  Also provides Sunday evening entertainment, usually enjoyed with a bottle of red and a feeling of being full up from the Roast of the Day.

Darts

Bookie Bashing x180 Darts Tool: kinda does what it says on the tin, and has done it very well in recent times.  Particularly useful in December, during the PDC Worldies.

And there we have it….for now.

There are some other options I’m looking at with every intention of getting involved with in the new year.  Top of the list is a provider of an edge in the Goalscorer markets and there’ll be a lot more on that very soon.  I was also intrigued by the In:Play Live service we reviewed recently.  It is a fascinating service and the podcast with the Owner of the service released last week was incredibly insightful.  I need to make sure I can set myself up to be able to exploit their edge properly, and I fully intend to get there.

And there are one or two old SBC favourites on my radar too.

This has been a lengthy post, but as ever, I’ll finish with an update of the figures for the month to date.

See you soon.

December 2025 figures (stakes normalized):

Bookie Bashing Racing Lucky 15s: Staked 530pts, -230.44pts, ROI -43.47%, DD -230.44pts, Max DD -230.44pts.

BB EW Golf Doubles: Staked 121pts, -121pts, ROI -100%, DD -121pts, Max DD -121pts.

BB Darts 180s Tool: Staked 351pts, +53.49pts, ROI 15.23%, DD 0pts, Max DD -50.9pts.

DD/HH: Staked 118pts, -118pts, ROI -100%, DD: -118pts, Max DD -118pts.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 157.5pts, +266.62pts, ROI 169.28%, DD -0pts, Max DD -26.46pts.

NFL Strategy: Staked 20pts, -20pts, ROI -100%, DD: -20pts, Max DD: -20pts

BB Racing Tracker Singles: Staked 740pts, -143.1pts, ROI -19.33%, DD -165.6pts, Max DD -165.6pts.

Sharp Betting Football: Staked 4,063.6pts, +86.66pts, ROI 2.13%, DD -256.67pts, Max DD -398.7pts.

The Transfer Flow: Staked 440pts, -58.89pts, ROI -13.38%, DD: -73.67pts, Max DD -88.56pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 280pts, -27.12pts, ROI -9.68%, DD -80.53pts. Max DD -80.53pts.

Value Bets: Staked 70.09pts, +40.01pts, ROI 57.08%, DD -0pts, Max DD -0pts.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 430pts, +116.95pts, ROI 27.19%, DD -124pts, Max DD -124pts

Total: Staked 7,541.09pts, -6.5pts, ROI -0.08%, DD -328.1pts, Max DD -462.88pts, Bank Growth -0.09%

I have a confession to make.

I can’t quite get my head around price cuts when putting my Bookie Bashing Football Coupons bets down.  I know that following “smart” money is advantageous.  And I understand that a slip with strong +EV on three or more selections combined with a couple of teams whose price has been cut is still a good bet with +EV overall.  But, I still feel there is a bit of a grey area that I’m not quite getting to grips with.

Watch this space as there are plans to nail this topic (and others) around the use of Football Coupons in the not too distant future.

This whole topic of +EV and -EV bets and steaming prices was brought into sharp focus for me last week.

First up, we had the Golf Each Way Doubles.  BetFred was the bookmaker of choice last week, which means asking the folk behind the counter in the shop for assistance.  My pattern is to go in, make some joke about how they don’t want to see me as they know what’s coming, ask for two coupons, fill one in, and then go to the desk to ask someone to go through the price cuts with me.  Once that’s been done, I’ll nip into a very nice, new patisserie right next door, order a coffee in a takeaway cup, avoid eye contact with the delicious looking pastries and cakes (which at my age, I have to admit I can probably do without), and fill in the second coupon, omitting those golfers whose price has been cut too far.  Then quickly back into the bookies, and Bob’s your Uncle.

I’ve mentioned before that the staff in my nearest Fred are great.  Friendly, can have a chat and a joke, they make their regulars tea and coffee on demand, and generally make the shop a really pleasant environment to be in.

Last week though, one of the regular members of staff was off sick, and they had someone in I’d never seen before.  And I knew, right from the first impression, she was going to be trouble.  A generally disinterested air about her, the small sigh when I asked for help with prices and which golfers had been cut, and a lack of a smile of any sort at all.  I mean, to resist my charm, she must have a heart of stone!

How many times can you press someone, “are you sure”?  After the second time, it kinda gets a wee bit embarrassing.

The outcome when I got the slip back was the feeling of being done like a kipper, and what must have been a -EV bet slip.  Now obviously -EV bets win, just as +EV bets lose, but the overall experience with the Each Way Golf Doubles for this particular week was a poor one.  Despite having the leader of both tournaments at the halfway stage, including one golfer at 250/1, there were no returns at all.  A blank week.

The second incident where I felt I must have a -EV slip was with, as previously suggested, a Football Coupon.

There is one particular coupon I’ve discovered, that has minimal price cuts.  To the extent that on the odd occasion I find a team has been cut in price, it feels like an outlier.  And certainly nothing to worry about.

So you can imagine when last Tuesday, I got back to the car, checked the prices on the slip with what was on the Coupons Tracker, and found that five of the seven teams had been cut in price, and three of them cut A LOT!  I was like, what the…?

It was such an anomaly as to all feel rather weird.

What happened?  Six of the seven won for the biggest pay out I’ve had from Football Coupons for what feels a long time!  I’d be interested to know if the prices I took were better than the closing prices.  I should have checked.  Did I just happily fall upon a load of teams all steaming in through sharp money, and which then continued to steam in, making it a bloomin’ good slip with a lot of +EV?  Or was it just randomness and positive variance at play, and I happened to get lucky with a -EV slip?  Answers on a postcard…

The Each Way Doubles may have drawn a blank, but Kristoffer Reitan did Weekly Golf Value (and by default, me) a solid by winning the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DPWT Tour.  18/1 for me, and not the biggest win WGV has ever enjoyed, but alongside a couple of placed golfers elsewhere it all added up to a nicely profitable week, so I ain’t complaining!

And that was the biggest contributor to what turned out to be a solid enough week overall, which has raised the profit high for the month and all at a respectable ROI of 8.4%.

The Bookie Bashing Football Coupons have got off to a strong start in December, but there’s still work to do to reach a new profit high overall, but the current drawdown has been reduced to -105pts.  An honourable mention too, for Touchdown Profit going 4-1 over the weekend.

By contrast, The Transfer Flow went 0-4 for me, frustration being increased by the fact I missed the one winner they did have due to price cuts (yup, that issue raising its head again).  And we need Fred to start pushing out the First Goalscorer price on Erling Haaland, because my DD/HH figures are on a downward spiral, with the overall drawdown reaching -291 points.  Not much in the scheme of things, but look, if Fred could just start pushing Haaland’s price out again…?  Look at it as a Christmas present, Fred.  You know it makes sense.

December 2025 figures (stakes normalized):

Bookie Bashing Racing Lucky 15s: Staked 290pts, -77.93pts, ROI -26.87%, DD -77.93pts, Max DD -144.73pts.

BB EW Golf Doubles: Staked 121pts, -121pts, ROI -100%, DD -121pts, Max DD -121pts.

BB Darts 180s Tool: Staked 0pts, 0pts, ROI 0%, DD 0pts, Max DD -0pts.

DD/HH: Staked 55pts, -55pts, ROI -100%, DD: -55pts, Max DD -55pts.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 87.5pts, +168.07pts, ROI 192.08%, DD -0pts, Max DD -7.33pts.

NFL Strategy: Staked 20pts, -20pts, ROI -100%, DD: -20pts, Max DD: -20pts

BB Racing Tracker Singles: Staked 391pts, -31pts, ROI -7.92%, DD -47.1pts, Max DD -75pts.

Sharp Betting Football: Staked 2,283.5pts, +205.23pts, ROI 8.98%, DD -138pts, Max DD -222.75pts.

The Transfer Flow: Staked 180pts, -55.22pts, ROI -30.67%, DD: -70pts, Max DD -132.2pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 100pts, +53.49pts, ROI 53.49%, DD -0pts. Max DD -0pts.

Value Bets: Staked 50.09pts, +19.01pts, ROI 37.95%, DD -0pts, Max DD -0pts.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 306pts, +240.95pts, ROI 78.74%, DD -0pts, Max DD -0pts

Total: Staked 3,818.09pts, +321.6pts, ROI 8.42%, DD -0pts, Max DD -222.57pts, Bank Growth 4.59%

It’s felt like a week of wading through mud, but at the end of it a youthful December is essentially at break even.

The reason it’s felt like it has is that a SharpBetting Football Lucky15 landed on Monday, netting over 240 points of profit.  Fact is though, three of the winners actually played on the Sunday, and the fourth early on Monday morning.  Since then, it’s been pretty much downhill all the way.

It’s the horses that have really struggled though.  We have to accept the variance that is all part and parcel of the Lucky 15 game, and just now, we’re in a period whereby getting more than one horse per bet to either win or place seems an impossible task.  As it happens, I’ve had a couple of decent priced winners, but simply haven’t been able to get them together.  It happens.

Not much else to report, to be honest.  Without wanting to tempt fate, Weekly Golf Value is looking might it might deliver over the weekend but we’ll simply have to wait and see.

And of course we soon have the World Darts Championship starting, so should be plenty of action there incoming.

I’ll leave it there for now and will be back on Monday with a weekend update.

December 2025 figures (stakes normalized):

Bookie Bashing Racing Lucky 15s: Staked 150pts, -110.21pts, ROI -73.47%, DD -110.21pts, Max DD -110.21pts.

BB EW Golf Doubles: Staked 0pts, -0pts, ROI -0%, DD -0pts, Max DD -0pts.

BB Darts 180s Tool: Staked 0pts, 0pts, ROI 0%, DD 0pts, Max DD -0pts.

DD/HH: Staked 0pts, 0pts, ROI 0%, DD: -0pts, Max DD -0pts.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 35pts, +69.72pts, ROI 199.2%%, DD -0pts, Max DD -7.33pts.

NFL Strategy: Staked 0pts, -0pts, ROI -0%, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0pts

BB Racing Tracker Singles: Staked 259pts, -58.9pts, ROI -22.74%, DD -75pts, Max DD -75pts.

Sharp Betting Football: Staked 1,275.5pts, +127.95pts, ROI 10.03%, DD -215.28pts, Max DD -222.75pts.

The Transfer Flow: Staked 100pts, +14.78pts, ROI 14.78%, DD: -0pts, Max DD -10pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 0pts, -0pts, ROI -0%, DD -0pts. Max DD -0pts.

Value Bets: Staked 20pts, +1.9pts, ROI 9.5%, DD -0pts, Max DD -0pts.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 0pts, 0pts, ROI 0%, DD +0pts, Max DD -0pts

Total: Staked 1,814.5pts, +15.24pts, ROI 0.83%, DD -221.36pts, Max DD -221.36pts, Bank Growth 0.21%

So as promised, a run down now of those services and strategies that drew a loss through November.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 439pts, -46.62pts, ROI -10.61%, DD -122.93pts, Max DD -142.53pts.

Not much to say.  Hardly a disaster.

Football Coupons: Staked 210pts, -97.58pts, ROI -46.46%, DD -97.58pts, Max DD -97.58pts.

My main target with these so far, and the reason why I’ve so far kept my stakes low, has been to find specific coupons where prices are more stable than they can be on others.  In that sense, target achieved.

Consequently, come the New Year, I will be upping stakes, which may be a little counterintuitive as to date, I’m running at an overall -32% ROI.  I remember seeing a Tom Brownlee video in which he said that the nature of the Football Coupons is to often go months without much by way of success and then over the course of a weekend or two make enough profit to wipe those losses out and then some.  He also was at pains to say that the volatility of this strategy was high, but that he views them as a staple of his betting output.

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 1,177.5pts, -136.77pts, ROI -11.61%, DD -141.72pts, Max DD -273.75pts

Again, no catastrophe and in fact, some important context needed.  The figures above relate only to November.  Overall, I’m +902 pts at an ROI of 31.62%.

Simply, November didn’t see any big return.  Always a waiting game for these Lucky 15s.  They strike, and often enough to make a good ROI.  But you can often be waiting a fair while for the bigger returns that comes from finding two or three winners or four placed horses within any one bet.

Golf Each Way Doubles: Staked 392pts, -392pts, ROI -100%, DD -392pts, Max DD -392pts

Fair to say these haven’t yet taken off, but they will.  November was very much a month of getting into promising positions before everything ultimately fizzling out.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all to get a couple of consecutive weeks when the big returns come in.  Another strategy for which I’ll be looking to raise stakes for 2026.

So there we have it.  A good month overall, and other than the continual squeeze by bookmakers in terms of restrictions, it’s been pretty plain sailing.  More and more money is being bet in shops using cash, and as that bookmaker squeeze continues to tighten, this will grow more and more.

But still, exciting times ahead!

See you Friday.

I didn’t post on Friday as being so close to the end of the month, I felt it better to wait and then round everything up today instead.  Much neater that way, and it worked out well, as it goes.

Had I posted on Friday, the theme would have been how Sharp Betting Football had had a very poor midweek for me, giving back a very large chunk of the profit made last weekend.  But then an excellent Saturday and Sunday reversed that trend and instead of being all gloomy, I can be far more upbeat with it finishing the month on an all time high.

I’ll briefly go through each service and strategy, and I’ve loads I want to write about some which I’ll keep for further posts moving forward.

Before we break the portfolio down though, here is the final position for November:

Staked: 15,554.75pts, +784.78pts, ROI: 5.04%, Bank Growth: 11.21%, Worst Drawdown: –566.46pts, Current DD: -0pts.

Always gratifying when a profitable month finishes at a profit peak!  It rarely happens.

I have to be pleased with what I consider to be the most important figure, the 11.21% total bank growth.  The ROI is a little lower than I would like, simply because the month lacked much by way of really big wins.  A nice Weekly Golf Value winner, but other than that it was a story of near misses.  Instead, the profit has been more of a steady accumulation, and Sharp Betting Football was very much to the fore with that.

Sharp Betting Football: Staked 9,431.25pts, +617.84pts, ROI 6.55%, DD -0pts, Max DD -243.89pts.

This was comfortably the most profitable service through November, although all the profit came in the last ten days or so.  Half way through we were looking at a fairly sizeable drawdown.  The recovery has been strong.

Interestingly, only 8% of the total stakes were made up from bets on multiples (Lucky 15s and Patents), which accounted for 20% of the profit.

This is a service with which I look for volume to spark bank growth.  Online restrictions mean I can’t raise stakes.  I get knocked back on a lot of bets on matches from the more obscure leagues.  Pretty happy at the level of volume, so one I’m content to carry on with smaller stakes whilst I still can.  How much longer that will last, who knows?

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 864pts, +378.87pts, ROI 43.85%, DD -80.63pts, Max DD -80.63pts.

80/1 winner Adam Shenk contributed most to a strong month for WGV, a month which has seen very little by way of drawdown.  I’m making the most of such consistency because as we know, large drawdowns are very much a part and parcel of the golf betting game.

I really hate typing this because I have a completely – but understandable – irrational fear of tempting fate by doing so, but with just one or two exceptions, I’m still free to stake as I wish on golf.  I’ve taken a fair bit out of firms this year as WGV has enjoyed a strong period, and every week I expect to be greeted with that all too familiar message that essentially says, “Nice to see you again, but you’re having a laugh if you think we’re just going to carry on taking these bets!”.

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Singles): Staked 1,113pts, +239.96pts, ROI 21.55%, DD -70.42pts. Max DD -121.82pts.

Introduced this month, and pretty pleased I made that decision.

It was done to try to squeeze as much out of accounts as possible, because at the long odds I’m backing these (most are between 12/1 and 28/1), even small stakes can lead to a decent enough return.  Winners at 20/1, 22/1 and 28/1 have meant that I’ve got off to a stormer, BUT…one of the two accounts I was using for this strategy closed me down completely when it comes to betting on horses.  I can still get on a few of the footie bets, but I’m done now with this firm as far as the gee gees are concerned.

All of which leaves me with one online book.  The plan is to start backing a few in the shops too when I get chance.  It won’t be a lot, but if there’s value there to be had, I would like to take it.  It will be interesting to see what money I can get down in total through December, and compare it to the month just gone.  Watch this space.

The Transfer Flow: Staked 1,040pts, +126.05pts, ROI 12.12%, DD -76.98pts, Max DD -101.77pts.

Now this is a service with which I can very easily double stake size (and more), with almost all the bets I strike being done at the Exchanges.  And I may well do.  I feel I’ve seen enough of it now, and can accept that there will always be a few bets I opt out of because the price has gone.

The ROI is about twice what I would hope for long term, so it’s been a very good month, but it was looking so much better until a nightmare raft of selections on last week’s Champions’ League and Championship bet rota.

Bookie Bashing Darts x180 Tool: Staked 380pts, +44.74pts, ROI 11.77%, DD -14.9pts, Max DD -50.9pts.

Another I can raise stakes for.  For the bigger events, the Exchange markets are fairly strong.  Having said that, none of the online books I’ve struck bets with have said no.  I wonder how far I can push it?  Let’s see.

NFL Strategy: Staked 140pts, +34.46pts, ROI 24.61%, DD -15.54pts, Max DD -60pts.

This month could have been SOOO much better!

The strategy involves identifying the right games, having the Draw at half time, and then for full return, the favourite go on to win.  Up until this month, each time I’d done this, either the scores have not been level at half time (by far the most regular occurrence), but if they have, then the favourite has indeed gone on to win.

Not this month.  I’ve had two half time bets land (yipee!), and then with each, the Dog to bloody well win (booo!). One of these was last night, but I had two games I bet in.  The other was 7-0 with less than a minute to go until half time.  The team on nil then scored a touchdown (7-6) which meant a pretty good chance of the Extra Point and a 7-7 half time score.  What happened?  The team that scored the touchdown went for the two-point conversion instead of the traditional Field Goal!  Muppets!  The half time score was 8-7, and you just know it when I tell you the pre-match Favourites did indeed go on to win the match.

See what I mean when I say it could all have been so much better?

Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven: Staked 286pts, +14pts, ROI 4.89%, DD -236pts, Max DD -236pts.

Things started going south when Fred started to shorten the odds on Erling Haaland as First Goalscorer and some Man City games didn’t have the concession applied.  It’s become a case of No Erling, No Profit.

Right, I’ll draw a line there.  Next post I’ll sum up those services that lost on the month.

See you then.

We all know that as people that take out betting seriously, keeping a tight rein on our emotions is important.  The familiar drill is we don’t get carried away with the highs, and we don’t get too down about the lows.  Remembering that each are inevitable and never dropping our focus from the long term is the way to go.

But…betting should be enjoyable.  And look, when we have a good win, I’m happy.  When things are going badly, not so happy.  I don’t swing emotionally from one extreme to the other, but nor do I try to be a robot, completely impervious to emotional involvement.

Every now and then though, a bet comes up  that I do commit too mentally.  One such came up yesterday.

As an Arsenal fan, having watched Liverpool and City lose the previous day, backing Bukayo Saka as a Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven pick from the Bookie Bashing Tracker held all sorts of promise.  Never have I so wanted a bet to win.  Playing chief local “rivals” Spu*s, can you imagine if Saka scored first and then doubled up, scoring goals in a comprehensive win!?!  Heaven doesn’t come close to how I’d feel about that.

It didn’t happen of course.  At least the Saka scoring bit anyway (the comprehensive win bit was still fun).

These opportunities to fully invest in a bet don’t come up too often.  Shame this was one that got away.  There’ll be others in the future, I’m sure.

What a week for Sharp Betting Football!  The latest drawdown, that had lasted a couple of months, ended with a hugely consistent week with a solid profit made every day.  These foundations were built upon too, by the few multiples I throw in amongst the singles finally paying something of a dividend over the weekend.  Three winners in a Lucky 15 plus a postponed match gave a healthy return, and three winners and a loser in another the same.  All told, we’re sitting on a new profit high for SBF for the month and all time.

This is a service in which I rely on volume.  With dwindling bookmaker accounts getting the volume of bets down I aim for is growing a little more complicated.  Because of restrictions, I have to keep my stakes fairly small, and look to make a decent profit by turning over the bank as quickly and often as I can.

The Transfer Flow had a storming Saturday with all six of the bets I struck ending up as winners!  That’s not quite the full story, however.  Sadly on Friday when the bets come through, I wasn’t at my laptop as is usually the case, and by the time I could look to get my money down the prices/lines had shifted on some to an extent I wasn’t happy backing at.  I missed four picks, three of which were winners.

That’s a phenomenal run of form for a service with which I’d be pleased with an ROI of 5%.  Remember we’re talking about betting solely in the Premier League, Championship and Champion’s League Asian lines.  The strongest of all UK football betting markets.  So to be at 20.5% ROI overall (24% this month so far) is way, way better than I could have dreamed.  It can’t keep running so hot and I’m waiting for a correction, but I’m going to enjoy this ride whilst it lasts.

As mentioned previously, another way I’m trying to eke as much out of accounts as I can is to use the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker, backing in singles.  Saturday was a memorable day as two winners hit, one at 28/1 and the other at 22/1.  Again, small stakes due to restrictions, but the ROI for these bets in November so far is 23%, which is not to be sniffed at.

Just shows though, how variance can hit.  The same Tracker is the source of bets to put in the Lucky15s, and that element to the portfolio is the only one to really disappoint last week.  Still, it’s sitting on a longer term ROI of 33% so I ain’t complaining.

All told, it’s been a very healthy week, and bank growth for November, with one week to go, stands at just under the 10% mark I nominally use as a “target”.  We’re sitting on a new high for the month and year, and there’s all to play for.  Let’s see what comes next.

November 2025 figures (stakes normalized):

Bookie Bashing Racing Lucky 15s: Staked 877.5pts, -191.49pts, ROI -21.82%, DD -201.44pts, Max DD -268.44pts.

BB EW Golf Doubles: Staked 392pts, -392pts, ROI -100%, DD -392pts, Max DD -392pts.

BB Darts 180s Tool: Staked 380pts, +44.74pts, ROI 11.77%, DD -14.9pts, Max DD -50.9pts.

DD/HH: Staked 229pts, +71pts, ROI 31%, DD: -179pts, Max DD -179pts.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 175pts, -77.34pts, ROI -44.19%, DD -77.34pts, Max DD -77.34pts.

NFL Strategy: Staked 100pts, -10pts, ROI -10%, DD: -60pts, Max DD: -60pts

BB Racing Tracker Singles: Staked 710pts, +167.88pts, ROI 23.64%, DD -0pts, Max DD -121.82pts.

Sharp Betting Football: Staked 7,181.75pts, +437.11pts, ROI 6.08%, DD -0pts, Max DD -239.63pts.

The Transfer Flow: Staked 760pts, +183.03pts, ROI 24.08%, DD: -20pts, Max DD -31.38pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 359pts, -6.22pts, ROI -1.73%, DD -82.53pts. Max DD -82.53pts.

Value Bets: Staked 66.5pts, +16.83pts, ROI 25.3%, DD -8pts, Max DD -15.5pts.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 724pts, +448.87pts, ROI 61.99%, DD -10.63pts, Max DD -12.5pts

Total: Staked 11,900.75pts, +692.41pts, ROI 5.81%, DD -0pts, Max DD -566.46pts, Bank Growth 9.89%

A weekend of mixed golfing emotions.

First thing to mention, a great 80/1 winner for Weekly Golf Value in Adam Shenk, who fought his own demons as well as a fierce Bermudan wind to secure victory and a fine WGV return.  I’ve never seen anyone putt one-handed, but Shenk did on occasion, and all told he must have changed his putting grip several times at different times across his last two rounds.  Doing that whilst trying to win a competition can’t be easy, and when he missed a five foot putt on the 17th to essentially secure the title, I thought the writing was on the wall.

But Shenk battled.  He looked emotionally a complete wreck when it was all over.  Not as much a wreck as I was after suffering watching his final round, I can tell you.

Anyway, all’s well that ends well, and that was the golfing sweet for the weekend.  The sour came from a near miss with the Each Way Golf Doubles.  On Saturday night we were in a good position to knock in a couple.  As it was, we got nothing, and the lack of a return on the month continues.  Only a matter of time, although that time will have to wait a little longer as there is only one tournament this week coming.

SharpBetting Football had a much better weekend and I’m almost, almost, back in the red for the month.  It was actually the multiples I threw in over the weekend that dragged things back a bit.  Had I not done those and stuck to singles, it would have been a great couple of days, but then if my Dad’s brother was a woman he’d be my Aunt and not my Uncle…or something.

The multiples will pay off in the long term, I’m sure.

Other than that, not much of note, really.  Another close thing with the NFL Strategy with Houston Texans needing a Field Goal to make the scores level at half time, with about ten seconds of the second quarter to play. They had the ball, were 20 yards out, and didn’t go for a Field Goal when doing so would have surely banked my profit.  Fine margins, and all that.

November 2025 figures (stakes normalized):

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (L15s): Staked 600pts, -95.43pts, ROI -15.9%, DD -105.38pts, Max DD -105.38pts.

BB EW Golf Doubles: Staked 392pts, -392pts, ROI -100%, DD -392pts, Max DD -392pts.

BB Darts 180s Tool: Staked 320pts, +28.74pts, ROI 8.98%, DD -30.9pts, Max DD -50.9pts.

DD/HH: Staked 135pts, +165pts, ROI 122.22%, DD: -85pts, Max DD -85pts.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 140pts, -49.44pts, ROI -35.31%, DD -49.44pts, Max DD -75.5pts.

NFL Strategy: Staked 60pts, +30pts, ROI 50%, DD: -20pts, Max DD: -20pts

BB Racing Tracker Singles: Staked 270pts, -50.32pts, ROI -18.63%, DD -121.82pts, Max DD -121.82pts.

Sharp Betting Football: Staked 5,237pts, -4.04pts, ROI -0.07%, DD -69.76pts, Max DD -239.63pts.

The Transfer Flow: Staked 600pts, +67.51pts, ROI 11.25%, DD: -31.38pts, Max DD -31.38pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 299pts, +14.57pts, ROI 4.87%, DD -61.74pts. Max DD -80.16pts.

Value Bets: Staked 52pts, +5.33pts, ROI 10.25%, DD -15.5pts, Max DD -15.5pts.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 630pts, +459.5pts, ROI 72.93%, DD -0pts, Max DD -12.5pts

Total: Staked 8,735pts, +179.42pts, ROI 2.03%, DD -251.23pts, Max DD -566.46pts, Bank Growth 2.53%

Starting the day on Monday, you’ll see from my last post that for November I was standing at a small loss of -84.39pts.  As I write this post on Friday morning, I’m still in deficit, but to the tune of just -48.35pts.  Those of you who are sharp with your mental arithmetic, will no doubt have worked out that means a profit on the week so far of 36.04 points.

Does that constitute a successful week?  Dunno.  Beats losing, I guess.

The point I’m making, is that it’s been quiet.  Very quiet.  Another negative effect of the Interlull.  My turnover with SharpBetting Football has plummeted just at a time when I would have liked to have built it up in an attempt to get through the current spell of negative variance as quickly as possible.

But you can only bet when the value is there, and this is just one of those times when patience is the key.

This theme of volume is an important one to consider.  If you know you are playing with an edge and your bets are overwhelmingly +EV, then the higher the turnover you can get through, the better.  I filled an hour of what has been a quiet week watching a fantastic video interview posted on the Bookie Bashing YouTube channel. The subject is someone who has profited to the tune of £1m+ over the last eight to nine years, utilising the BB Tools and Trackers.

The whole interview is very much worth a watch, but the bit I found fascinating was the section where Tom and his subject were discussing securing as much +EV as possible.  Fascinating to hear Tom say that there was one syndicate he knew of where its participants were rewarded on the level of EV they secured.  It’s an interesting twist in terms of mindset.  Instead of targeting profit each day/week/month/year, it’s posited that the better ambition is simply to secure as much +EV as you can.  Do that, the profit will follow.

It’s a subtle tweak to philosophy, but I’ve got to admit, it’s a bit of a light bulb moment.  I like to think that experience has taught me enough to be able to deal with the losing runs (another gem in the video is the acknowledgement that losing runs and drawdowns can last a lot longer than anyone tends to anticipate) pretty well, but this slight change in outlook I feel, could really help people.  Treat a good day as one in which you’ve secured a level of +EV you’re happy with, not necessarily one in which you’ve made a profit.

If you haven’t already, go and watch the video.  There’s loads of good stuff in it, useful whether you’re a Bookie Bashing member or not.  Something for the weekend, perhaps.

On a practical note, the squeeze of restricted accounts is squeezing like a boa constrictor who is in the squeezing form of his life. I’m being squeezed!

It’s reached the point where I feel I’m coming to the end before transitioning to shops and cash betting entirely.  I can still get on a fair amount of football bets but to smaller stakes than is ideal, making the principle of volume even more important (damn you, international break!).  And I can still back some horses but again to small stakes, and in light of this I’m looking to place a few singles sourced from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker where I can, when I can.  Fewer Lucky15s, because I’m running out of books where they’re happy to take the liability.

One note – there’s been good value in the Grand Slam of Darts this week, especially on the Total 180s lines.  Long may that continue.  The even better news is that more of the +EV bets have won than lost, so not only have I been able to secure plenty of EV, I’ve also been able to secure the profit.  Happy Days!

November 2025 figures (stakes normalized):

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (L15s): Staked 495pts, -78.79pts, ROI -15.91%, DD -83.74pts, Max DD -83.74pts.

BB EW Golf Doubles: Staked 164pts, -164pts, ROI -100%, DD -164pts, Max DD -164pts.

BB Darts 180s Tool: Staked 260pts, +48.74pts, ROI 18.74%, DD -10.9pts, Max DD -10.9pts.

DD/HH: Staked 135pts, +165pts, ROI 122.22%, DD: -85pts, Max DD -85pts.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 105pts, -75.5pts, ROI -71.9%, DD -75.5pts, Max DD -75.5pts.

NFL Strategy: Staked 40pts, +50pts, ROI 125%, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0pts

BB Racing Tracker Singles: Staked 47pts, +52.5pts, ROI 111.7%, DD -19pts, Max DD -19pts.

Sharp Betting Football: Staked 4,423.5ptspts, -161.79pts, ROI -3.65%, DD -225.51pts, Max DD -239.63pts.

The Transfer Flow: Staked 600pts, +67.51pts, ROI 11.25%, DD: -31.38pts, Max DD -31.38pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 239pts, -3.85pts, ROI -1.61%, DD -80.16pts. Max DD -80.16pts.

Value Bets: Staked 20pts, +13.33pts, ROI 66.65%, DD -0pts, Max DD -0pts.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 358pts, +38.5pts, ROI 10.75%, DD -0pts, Max DD -12.5pts

Total: Staked 6,886.5pts, -48.35pts, ROI -0.7%, DD -477pts, Max DD -513.04pts, Bank Growth -0.69%

One of those weekends which passed by without anything at all remarkable happening.

After what had been a really strong start to the month, we’ve hit a bit of a drawdown and November is now, just, running at a loss.  There’s not a great deal t report.

Perhaps instead of following the new SBC Free Tipster service F1 Edge by paper trading, as stated in Friday’s post, I should have just jumped in.  Had I, even to small stakes, then it would have been the best performing service by far for me over the weekend!

I had one golfer place in each of the two tournaments across the DPWT and PGA Tours, one at 80/1 and the other at 100/1.  Sadly, one was with BetFred and the other Ladbrokes.  All of which meant it was a totally blank week for the EW Golf Doubles strategy, and with no golfer in contention for Weekly Golf Value in the US tournament it all made for a rather boring golfing Sunday.

Talking of Weekly Golf Value, it was one of only two services/strategies to produce a profit over the weekend, and that was only a direct result of an error on my part.  Placed golfer Angel Ayora I managed to back twice!  Not sure how that happened, but happen it did.

The other profitable strategy was the backing the draw at Half Time and the HT/FT double in predicted low scoring matches.  New York Jets and Cleveland Browns were drawing at half time, but the the Jets went on to win when I needed the Browns to for the double.  A profit all told, but that kinda sums up my weekend.

Reached a new max drawdown on the month for SharpBetting Football and at an almost all time low water mark there, too.

Not much else to report.  With a dearth of football now whilst we endure another break for internationals, it feels that the month has entered what can only be described as the doldrums.  Perhaps some golf will brighten things up this week coming.  Let’s see.

November 2025 figures (stakes normalized):

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (L15s): Staked 465pts, -68.2pts, ROI -14.66%, DD -73.15pts, Max DD -77.69pts.

BB EW Golf Doubles: Staked 164pts, -164pts, ROI -100%, DD -164pts, Max DD -164pts.

DD/HH: Staked 135pts, +165pts, ROI 122.22%, DD: -85pts, Max DD -85pts.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 52.5pts, -52.5pts, ROI -100%, DD -52.5pts, Max DD -52.5pts.

NFL Strategy: Staked 40pts, +50pts, ROI 125%, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0pts

Sharp Betting Football: Staked 3,622pts, -136.85pts, ROI -3.77%, DD -200.57pts, Max DD -200.57pts.

The Transfer Flow: Staked 600pts, +67.51pts, ROI 11.25%, DD: -31.38pts, Max DD -31.38pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 219pts, +16.15pts, ROI 7.37%, DD -60.16pts. Max DD -60.16pts

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 358pts, +38.5pts, ROI 10.75%, DD -0pts, Max DD -12.5pts

Total: Staked 5,655.5pts, -84.39pts, ROI -1.49%, DD -513.04pts, Max DD -513.04pts, Bank Growth -1.24%