What do we think is the most common mistake made by folk who want to elevate their betting to a “serious” level and who rely on the skills and abilities of others to do so? In other words, those who follow tipsters – where do we err most frequently?
From personal experience, I reckon there are a number of “areas of weakness” that I had to really work on. I made so many mistakes that looking back now, make me cringe.
Paying too much for a service in subscription fees in relation to the size of bank we have, or not setting up a separate betting bank in the first place are two errors I hear a lot about. Choosing to follow a tipster whose approach to betting isn’t psychologically suited to our own risk profile is another; ie. if you really struggle with long losing runs then starting with a golf service or a horse racing tipster whose tips average out at 16/1 and longer isn’t likely to end well. Trust me, I’ve been there, done that!
I hate to say it, but jumping in bed with a tipster who has no proofed track record, can provide no detailed breakdown of performance, relies on non-independent affiliates to drum up a customer base…we’ve all been there (have we?…tell me we have!). Actually, maybe not nowadays, but back in the day…
Anyway, the point is, is that there are loads of mistakes we can make and a lot of traps we can fall into.
But, I reckon the most common error I see being made is finding a tipster with a clearly defined and statistically proven edge, and then not allowing him or her the requisite time for the edge to manifest itself.
And I get it. You join a new service, and you get off to a losing start. No matter how much you have read about it before committing, ingested and digested the reviews, done the statistical research and absorbed the findings of Monte Carlo simulations (all framed within the context perhaps, of a service that has successfully been generating profit for years)…until you start benefitting yourself it is almost impossible for you to reach the point of complete “buy in”.
There’s nothing worse than joining a service only to get off to a losing start. Which is exactly what has happened to me with The Value Machine. Actually, the first week or two was really profitable, and then a drawdown hit. Which in some ways, is even harder to take.
SBC Towers received an email from a member who, reading my Bet Diary report, asked if the The Value Machine edge should not have shown itself after the number of bets that have been placed (for context, I average at just over 30 bets per day and have done since the start of last month). That’s around 900 bets for September, and yet I’m in negative territory.
I’m not a statistician. I’m no mathematician either. But from all the reading I’ve done over the years I understand that this isn’t a big enough data sample of bets from which to draw any conclusions. Not when the average odds of the bets is 5.86/1 (for those interested, I set my TVM parameters at finding selections between Evens and 10/1).
Trust me, when your drawdown reaches 40% of the betting bank with a service that you’re yet to make any money from, it’s hard to think like this. And I’ll tell you something. If this had been me when starting out on my betting journey, I reckon I would have quit, or come very close to. Which would have bene the complete wrong thing to do.
Others, who have a different psychological profile to me, may not batter an eyelid in the same circumstances. The only reason I’m not tearing at my hair and running around shaking my fists up at the Gambling Gods and declaring “Infamy! Infamy! They all have it in for me!” (Carry On Cleo), is through experience and having seen/made this mistake countless times before.
Which is why I think it vital to have certain rules in place to provide a framework. Something that provides guidance and perhaps takes guesswork out of any decision making process around deciding whether or not to continue with a service that is struggling. This could be when starting with a service and having got off to a sticky start, or for a service you’ve been with for a long term and have benefited from financially.
My “framework” is very simple. I track all current drawdowns, and maximum drawdowns suffered to date with any one tipster. If at any point, a drawdown reaches the point that is equal to the size of the bank that was initially set aside for it, then that’s it. A line is drawn.
So say, for sake of easy numbers, you sign up to a new service and assign to it a bank of 100 points. In the first two years, you make a 300 point profit. At that point there is a horrible drawdown that reduces your profit by 200 points (the size of your original bank) – that’s when I would quit. I’m still 100 points to the good, but the drawdown has reached the original bank size of 200 points.
As for The Value Machine specifically. This is a service with an exceptionally long, proven track record. But looking at its history, it is clear that – much like golf betting – it is very common to go weeks without making any progress and then see a spurt of profit that takes members to a new profit high point. With the odds profile as it is, we need to see a lot more bets come through before having any sort of expectation that the edge really should have made itself evident, buy hasn’t (with the inference that there is no edge any longer).
Compare to WinnerOdds Football. I don’t think anyone can deny the edge that exists there. And yet here I am, 1,260 bets in (at much, much shorter average odds per bet) at an ROI of just 0.96%, way below the long term that sits around the 5% mark.
The conclusion?
If we’re with a service that ticks all the right boxes in terms of it having been analysed and proven to have a long term edge, then we need to give it ample time for that edge to manifest itself to our benefit. And that means striking a LOT of bets. More than I’ve placed myself for The Value Machine and WinnerOdds Football.
I have no doubts at all about the existence of the edge with these services. My fear comes more from being able to keep (or not!) bookmaker accounts open for long enough for me to be able to profit well from the edge that exists. That’s a completely different mindset. My safety net in terms of winning or losing comes from the betting bank and funds I’ve set aside – reach the point where a drawdown hits the points betting bank assigned…that’s when I’m out, and not before (unless the accounts go). That’s my way of avoiding the mistake I made several times before the penny dropped…the mistake of quitting something really good, far too soon.
