A couple of weeks ago I talked about a dreadful Saturday from WinnerOdds Football that I admitted, despite however many years I’ve been in this game, I found hard to deal with. This Saturday, the same service had for me, a much worse day. Two weeks ago, the bounce back was almost immediate with a decent Sunday restoring some confidence, and the thanks to a huge drifter for the version of The Value Machine I use, I was sitting back on a profit high less than half a week later. Sunday this time, saw no bounce back, and in fact already heavy losses were exacerbated by TVM having 20 consecutive losers Friday through to Sunday and a blank week for me using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker.
I guess losing confidence in something you’re doing when you’ve done it successfully for years is, on the face of it, a bit daft. But I’d liken it to a top notch centre forward with a history of banging in goals left, right and centre over many seasons suddenly doing everything but score. It doesn’t matter how experienced or successful you’ve been, confidence can always be knocked.
It got me thinking and I thought what I’d do is provide some unofficial ‘Confidence Ratings’ for each of the services I’m following right now. Marked out of five, these are a reflection of what I am feeling right now. They could easily change very, very quickly.
eSoccerEdge: 3.5
For a service that has produced 42.1% bank growth since mid-January, and which was the only bright spot of the weekend just gone, you’d perhaps expect this to be higher. The only reason it isn’t is that it is so (relatively) new to me. Based on what it’s done so far it should be a nailed on 5/5, but I still feel I’m getting used to it. A new, variable staking system has been introduced which should increase the ROI further, but until I’ve got more info in terms of how that looks like and potential implications on the size of betting bank, I’m sticking to level stakes. That’s why I’m at 3.5 – HUGE potential, just not 100% set yet on how to realise it. But that will come.
Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker: 5
Been using it or it’s derivative Weekly Golf Value for years, and with huge success. Every faith and confidence behind the people that run it. Settling on a 5/5 is a no-brainer despite the inevitable long losing runs golf betting brings at times.
The Value Machine: 2.5
To emphasise – this is how I’m feeling, as Oasis once said, right here right now. 20 consecutive losing bets. A pattern so far this year of getting to break even before hitting another draw down has happened again. It’s difficult on a grey Monday morning to be feeling overjoyed about it. But…and it is a big but…the people behind it are fantastic at what they do, have experience in bucket loads, and the track record is strong. A decent week and the rating could easily be 4 by Friday!
WinnerOdds Football: 1.5
Do I believe WinnerOdds Footie is a top, top service? Yes.
Do I believe that WO Footie has suddenly lost its edge? No.
Am my feelings (and therefore rating) being assessed on just a couple of recent weekend’s bad results? Yes, and no.
Here’s the thing. I know this service makes good money for it’s customers. I know it’s run by people I have huge respect for. But…it’s not just recent results that is making my confidence levels decline. Since starting with it, I’ve struck 2,402 bets at an average of 7.85/day. My ROI figure is 1.3%.
That’s not a level of return that can justify the work put in. It just isn’t. And I know that other users will have made a strong return in the same time period, and some will have made less. But frankly, I don’t care about them. I care about spending a lot of time and effort, for what is a very low rate of return.
I have to be careful to caveat that my stakes last year changed as I got a feel for the service (as is the case for every service I begin to follow), and since January the bank has been larger than it was at any time in 2024. The knock on impact is that the losing runs are going to hit harder right now than they would have done last year, and as a result the ROI will be lowered. But the difference in staking really hasn’t been that large. Still, when encountering a winning run, the resultant profit line will rise more sharply so it needs time to right itself.
But…2,402 bets for 1.3% ROI. It would take a pretty special person (or maybe a psychopath) not to feel a little down about that.
I’ve got to run right now. I’ll stick, the figures up in my next post. Fingers crossed any Confidence Ratings will look a little better in a couple of days time.
