It’s been something of a manic week so just a quick update to bring things up to speed.

Starting with the positive, and it was a fine, if somewhat strange, week for the Bookiebashing Early Pay Out Tracker.  I had far more Lucky 15s returning very little, than has been the norm.  But just when it was looking likely that it would be my worst week to date following this strategy, than a big win was landed.  All four teams won, the profit was 33 times the stake of the Lucky 15, and I’m on an all time high again with it.  Looking at the figures now, and we’ve already seen 83% bank growth since the turn of the year!  This one Lucky 15 also ensured that the week overall was going to be a profitable one.

Profits were boosted by another good week for Sys Analyst, which has been the very epitomy of consistency so far in 2024.  Last year didn’t finish in great style, but I have never once felt any reason to doubt that the losses would be recouped and a surge towards another profit high would follow.  And so it is proving.

Talking of consistency, the various Value Bets found via various Bookie Bashing Trackers and Tools continues to push forward, and another profitable week rounded off by three Anytime Goalscorer bets all being landed on Sunday.  The ROI for these bets remains ridiculously high.  I’m in danger of convincing myself that a “correction” isn’t due at all! (Famous last words!).

So they were the highlights and to be honest there haven’t been any real lowlights.  No big win on the golf but not that much by way of losses really, so let’s not dwell and instead press on.

See you soon.

Betting 2024

Account Agent: Staked 1,580pts, -76.47pts, roi -4.83%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 5,955pts, +1,251.14pts, roi 21%, roc 83.4%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 2,829pts, -74.90pts, roi -2.64%, roc -4.99%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 217pts, -217pts, ROI -100%, roc -21.7%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 3,770pts, -565.47pts, roi -14.99%, roc -37.69%

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 2,753pts, +742.30pts, roi 26.96%, roc 49.48%

DD/HH: Staked 844pts, -473.50pts, roi -56.1%, roc -47.35%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 960pts, +151.77pts, ROI 15.8%, roc 10.11%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, roc 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 1,687.55pts, +275.85pts, ROI: 16.34%, roc 18.39%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, roc 7.54%

TOTAL ROI: 6.66%

Not a great week, last week.  We’ve seen how the Masters went (break even for Weekly Golf Value, a losing tournament for Golf Betting Club), but elsewhere was a struggle too.

The horse racing Lucky 15s from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker have struggled for me this year although since starting doing these, it must be remembered that it remains by far the most profitable strategy I’ve followed.  This is a sticky spell for me, and yet the thing is other users of the same Tracker could well be going through a really profitable period.  I heard that one user had netted a huge win from a small stake.  I bet he’s not stressing about his ROI!  Anyway, a poor week for these.

Sys Analyst also had a poor week for me, although again, to keep everything in context, I’m dashing along at 20% ROI since the turn of the year, and by using the Exchanges almost exclusively (I can still get on the odd each way bet via an online bookmaker).  I’ve missed the odd winner too due to not being matched at the correct price, although have sidestepped losers for the same reason.

The Lucky 15s from the football Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker essentially broke even, the DD/HH strategy continued on it’s drawdown for me, which left the only profitable angle last week being the Value Bets.  I mentioned the other week I was looking to source more of such bets, and I feel I’m spreading the net wider now.  The Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker remains a strong source, although I filter out bets with a perceived +EV lower than 5%.  Elsewhere I’m using the Player xG Tool to find value in the Any Time Goalscorer markets, the Combo Tracker to find bookmaker friendly #looksillybutinfactthere’sanedge bets on football matches, and most recently looking at the Enhanced Specials at the likes of BetDaq and Matchbook.  There’s some very real value to be found here, although liquidity isn’t always that great.  Josh did a really useful video on this which is well worth checking out if you haven’t already.  With the 0% commission deals around at present, this is proving a nice little angle at present.

Looking forward and I’ve an idea that I want to think through that will involve using a service that is part of the SBC ‘Hall of Fame’.  It does need thinking through though, and if pressing ahead, may just require a little shuffling of funds and very minor restructure of what I’m following and betting on.  Will devote some time to this over the weekend, and will obviously provide an update in the Bet Diary should things develop.

In the meantime, have a great weekend, and here are the figures:

Account Agent: Staked 1,490pts, -52.02pts. ROI -3.49%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 5,040pts, +637.77pts, ROI 12.65%, ROC 42.51%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 2,463pts, -14.74pts, ROI: -0.59%, ROC: -0.98%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 217pts, -217pts, ROI -100%, ROC -21.7%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 4,140pts, -424.57pts, ROI: -10.25%, ROC: -28.3%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 2,331.5pts, +464.88pts, ROI: 19.93%, ROC: 30.99%

DD/HH: Staked 616.5pts, -245.5pts, ROI: -39.82%, ROC: -24.55%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 934pts, +171.47pts, ROI 18.35%, ROC 11.43%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 1,687.55pts, +275.85pts, ROI: 16.34%, ROC: 18.39%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, ROC: 7.54%

It was the US Masters last week, my favouritest (sic) ever golf tournament.  I love it!  Stunningly beautiful course, generally speaking a clear blue sky and hot sun, the noise of birds caught on the mics…I can lie on the sofa and pretend that it’s not still -1 degree in what is supposed to be Spring and that it’s hail stoning outside, and just enjoy some top quality golf.

It’s even better of course, when you’ve backed a golfer in with a shout, and although Weekly Golf Value had Tommy Fleetwood who ultimately finished in a tie for 3rd, he was never in with a shout of winning.  I ended up a sliver below break even with WGV for the week, being dragged below the P&L line by the fact I couldn’t get all of my stake on Cameron Young with the ideal 10 places for the place part.  So I had to split the stake, and the second part of it went on at a bookmaker paying Top7 only.  Young finished in a tie for 9th.

Mind you, that was a much better tournament than for Golf Betting Club, for whom not much went right.

All the figures, etc., in a post later in the week.

In other news, have you listened to the latest The Barstewards Enquiry podcast.  If not, why not?  It is always a good listen; funny, informative, interesting.  Anyway, this week they had on Rishi Persad, the broadcaster often on our screens for ITV Racing (although he’s covered a multitude of other sports for the likes of the BBC, too).  Rishi comes across as being a really decent bloke who has his head screwed on.  Not a luvvy-entertainment type at all.  In fact, I would go so far to say that Rishi appears to be a thoroughly good chap!

It was interesting to listen to Rishi talk about the nonsense of affordability checks and the ever nefarious ways our “great” bookmaking industry use to generally mistreat their customers.  I also found it a little reassuring that the awareness of these issues is perhaps, even just an incy wincy bit, growing.

I appreciate I am (very) naive, but I live in hope that the situation with the bookmaking industry will sink to such a low, dire level, that there will eventually be forced upon it a full root and branch review, a proper regulating body formed, and some sort of return to the “good old days” when a bookmaker will take a bet. I can dream, eh?

One of the nefarious methods used by BetFred was to “palp” it’s 6/4 pre tournament price on there to be no hole in one in The Masters.  There wasn’t, and clearly the firm had been hit by those who, perhaps after seeing Bookie Bashing’s Tom Brownlee’s video, had taken advantage of the value on offer.  To make their actions even worse, if that is possible, BetFred had actually cut the price to 6/4 from 9/5.  What was the discussion at BetFred HQ?

“Woops, that 9/5 was waaaay too big.  Let’s palp it.”

“But, Boss.  We got stung at the 6/4 we cut it to, an’ all.”

“Well, we’ll just say that was a clear and obvious error, too.  Works for VAR”

Finally for today, the Aintree Festival was a far from lucrative one for me this year – more on that later in the week – but I have to admit that the Grand National knocked me back a bit.  I watched it this year, for the first time in many, and it is unrecognisable from the race it was when I was growing up!  And l0ok, I’m not one for animal cruelty, and perhaps the race as it was might be considered a little bit too much of a test for the horses, but what I witnessed on Saturday was just “another” long distance steeplechase.  It just lacked any sort of real jeopardy, or drama.  A sad shadow of the event it was.

And on that cheery note I shall leave you.

PS. If you think that’s miserable, wait until you see the betting figures for last week!  Ouch.

Golf Betting Club’s fine 60/1 win on Sunday got me thinking about the psychology in play in top level sport.  Don’t get me wrong, I reckon to be a top pro in any sport takes a great deal of mental fortitude, but to my mind, golf is a sport that really examines the mental toughness of those who compete at the highest level.

Akhsay Bhatia was GBC’s winner, and to be honest, looked almost a cert for victory from Day 1, finishing the first round shots in front of second place.  That lead was more or less maintained through Rounds two and three, and even halfway through the final round was clear of second placed Denny McCarthy.  But in a glorious run, McCarthy managed eight (EIGHT) birdies from the closing nine holes, forcing poor old Bhatia into a play off for a tournament victory that he must surely thought was his.

Put yourself in the shoes of Bhatia.  How would you react?  You’d have to be disappointed, to say the least.  Down, wondering what you’d done to deserve such a thing, demoralized.  I didn’t watch as had gone to bed, but for Bhatia to then emerge the winner of the play off, in those circumstances, when all momentum had been with his opponent…well, I take my hat off.  Chapeau, Mr. Bhatia!

What all this means is that Golf Betting Club is showing some red hot form going into this week’s Masters, and has contributed massively to what has been a rather splendid start to the new month.

The Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker is really firing at present, with three or four notable winning Lucky 15s last week which resulted in 22% bank growth across just the seven days.  There were a number of teams that ultimately lost their match but because they had gone two goals up they counted as a winner.  I hadn’t had that happen at all for a while, and it was this happening that meant I could properly cash in.  Who knows how long I’m going to be able to carry this strategy on for, but at the moment it’s very much about making hay whilst the sun has been shining.

I’m going to write a separate post about the “Value Bets”, as I’ve added a couple of approaches, using the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker but also other methods of using their tools to find my own bets.  In that post I’ll provide a breakdown of what those methods are, but suffice to say last week produced an exceptional 96% ROI and over 10% bank growth from just a handful of bets.  Those figures aren’t the norm of course (I wish!), but nice to see things going so well there.

Sys Analyst also had a fine week with a 50% ROI and just shy of 10% bank growth, despite my missing a winner due to not having the price I wanted matched on the Exchange.  I tend to leave these bets until the last five minutes before off time as much as I can, and this is going to happen at times.  But, losers are avoided too for the same reason, so I’m not complaining.

Figures for April 2024 to date…

DD/HH Strategy: Staked 160pts, -160pts, roi -100%, High: 0pts, DD: -160pts, Max DD: -160pts

Bookie Bashing Early Price Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 570pts, +336.83pts, roi 59.09%, High: 336.83pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0pts

Golf Betting Club: Staked 89pts, +299pts, roi 335.95%, High: 299pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0pts

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 170pts, -6.66pts, roi -3.91%, High: 0pts, DD: -6.66pts, Max DD: -6.66pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 405pts, -82.08pts, roi -20.26%, High: 0pts, DD: -82.08pts, Max DD: -82.08pts

Sys Analyst. Staked 275pts, +140.19pts, roi 50.97%, High: 140.19pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0pts

Value Bets: Staked 167.5pts, +161.18pts, roi 96.22%, High: 161.18pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0pts

TOTAL ROI: 63.85%

If you’ve read the most recent Bet Diary posts you would be aware that the previous couple of weeks had seen solid returns and an upward curve in the profit and loss line, meaning that some momentum had been found after a largely frustrating first couple of months of the year.  As betting is wont to do however, those couple of steps forward were followed last week by a step back, leaving the overall ROI for the year at 6.6%.  The target is 10%.

Having brought all the figures up to date to the end of March, it was interesting to see where we are in terms of being on target for annual growth and returns.  In a nutshell, I aim to double the overall betting bank over a 12 month period using the services and strategies I follow now, and an ROI of 10% on the level of turnover I anticipate, should mean that double your money target is one within reach.

Keep this in mind when I say then, that after Quarter 1 of 2024 the ROI is at 66%of where I would hope it would be across the long term.  The profit made to date is now at 15% of the annual target, ie. 15% bank growth towards an overall target of 100%.  15% x four quarters = 60%.  So, behind target (although one quarter is no real length of time at all to use to judge) but a remarkably close (I think, anyway) correlation between ROI and ROC – ROI at 66% v target, ROC at 60%.

As for turnover, I’m at just over 80% of what I would have liked it to have been at this stage, and this is something I feel I need to be aware of and prepared to make some slight adjustments for moving forward.  A contributory factor to this falling short has been the relative dearth of DD/HH opportunities.  We knew this was going to happen when BetFred went from offering the concession in shops on all English Premier League matches and all Champions’ League games, to a selected few.  So take this evening for example.  There are three EPL matches being played, but pre-match DD/HH available on only one of them.  Last season, all three would have DD/HH on offer.

This is just one example.  There are others that have had an impact on turnover.  The number of Lucky 15s I’ve been able to place has dropped a little from last year’s levels.  I don’t think this is a trend, just a reflection of the ebb and flow we experience, but it does explain why turnover has been down a bit through the early months of the year.  We just need to keep an eye on things through the next three months and then take a view for the second half of 2024.

Betting 2024

Account Angel: Staked 1,490pts, -52.02pts. ROI -3.49%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 4,665pts, +642pts, ROI 13.76%, ROC 42.8%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 2,315pts, -10.49pts, ROI: -0.45%, ROC: -0.69%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 217pts, -217pts, ROI -100%, ROC -21.7%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 3,780pts, -221.18pts, ROI: -5.85%, ROC: -14.74%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 2,134pts, +410.23pts, ROI: 19.22%, ROC: 41.02%

DD/HH: Staked 540.5pts, -169.5pts, ROI: -31.35%, ROC: -16.95%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 879pts, +204.12pts, ROI 23.22%, ROC 14.58%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 1,487.55pts, +417.20pts, ROI: 28.04%, ROC: 41.72%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, ROC: 7.54%

TOTAL ROI: 6.62%