After a lot of bets the week just gone ended up more or less even, a few quid in the red but barely anything. Talk about grinding it out.
Annoyingly, a horrible Saturday for The Value Machine ultimately proved very costly, but more on that shortly.
Let’s start with the positive, and another strong week (especially Sunday which saw 5% bank growth) for WinnerOdds Football. Some big bets going down on 1.11 bets and similar, but plenty of smaller but successful bets on longer prices too. If I break down my stats from when I started with the service, bets priced between 1.0 and 1.4 are performing to a negative ROI of -0.46%, and those between 1.4 – 1.6 at -2.04%. Then come the most profitable categories by far; 1.6 – 1.8 are chugging along very nicely at 6.93% and those between 1.8 – 2.0 at a fantastic 9.42%.
What this means is that when I have a dirty great big stake going on a 1.11 shot as on Saturday, I find myself checking for the result in a way I wouldn’t with anything else. Need to stop doing that.
Anyway, all is well as ends well for WO Footie this week.
It’s felt a little while in the coming, but on Friday I had the first four up in a Bookie Bashing Lucky 15 sourced from the Early Pay Out Tracker for the first time this season. Decent prices too, and that one bet provided a profit equal to 24.7% bank growth, and has pushed the ROI for the month to date up to 37.3%. Sadly, each and every other day for this strategy was a losing one, but I can live with that when we get winners such as this.
Sys Analyst carried on the good work done this month. Only in action on the Friday and Saturday, a nice winner at just over 11/1 on the Exchanges and a 20/1 place at a bookmaker ensured more profit. It’s been beautifully steady this month, and long may that continue. Actually, “steady” doesn’t do it anywhere near justice. Bank growth this month is currently 22% and the ROI is 172.4%. Let’s upgrade “steady” to “bloody spectacular”!
A profitable week too, for the various Bookie Bashing Tools Value Bets. After listening to Tom in various videos and the Bookie Bashing podcast, I’ve been concentrating a lot more on the Cards markets and to date it has proven to be a good decision. I’m going to go into more detail in my next post, but suffice to say at this stage that cards bets provided by far the biggest chunk of the profit last week.
A quiet week for Weekly Golf Value which opted not to get involved in the LIV tournament, and with no PGA Tour event that meant there was just the DPWT PGA British Open to go at. No placed = no returns.
And then we come to The Value Machine. It was only last week I was talking about how swingy I was finding it on a day to day basis, and unfortunately Saturday was very much a downswing day. Of 61 horses backed, only six won, and apart from a 6/1 shot, the other winners were priced at 2/1 or lower. You don’t need to be a mathematical genius to work out that that was only going to end in a pretty hefty loss. The drawdown from the last high is now the equivalent to almost a third of the bank. Going to be interesting to see what happens next. I’m strapping myself in for the ride.
September Figures (stakes normalised):
Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 855pts, 319.74pts, roi 37.39%, roc 21.31%.
Weekly Golf Value: Staked 492pts, -187.5pts, roi -38.1%, roc -9.37%.
Sys Analyst: Staked 256.8pts, +442.94pts, roi 172.48%, roc 22.14%.
Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,497.71pts, +33.96pts, roi 2.36%, roc 1.69%.
The Value Machine: Staked 6,870pts, -193.73pts, roi -2.81%, roc -9.68%
Winner Odds Football: Staked 5,291pts, +645.89pts, roi 12.2%, roc 32.29%.
TOTAL: Staked 15,282.51pts, +1,063.3pts, roi 6.95%, roc 9.24%.
