…I ought to just stay in bed!

Is When Saturday Comes still a thing?  I used to buy it religiously every week from the local newsagents back in the 90s.  WSC was at the forefront of the new (at the time) Fanzine scene, and it was sooo refreshing compared to all the nonsense you’d get in the tabloids or the staid writing of the Chief Football Correspondents on the broadsheets.  Loved my WSC, I did.

Anyway, the headline does not refer directly to that erstwhile publication, and more to my mood when Saturday ends!  Seriously, if I just didn’t bet The Value Machine selections each Saturday, I reckon I’d be quids in this month.  Instead, I’ve just dipped back into the red after last week hailing the recovery to get into the black.  Talk about up and down, and it always seems to be the Saturdays that do for me.

To be honest, I’ll be glad to see the back of this month.  It’s been a real struggle and I’m still in a loss making position, albeit not now a very big one.  I even made a bit of profit last week but that was mainly down to the ‘Trial Service’.  My intention was to just post the figures during the trial run, and not make mention of it specifically, but after a Friday just gone that saw one bet land the equivalent to 72% bank growth in just one hit, it’s a bit hard to maintain that cloak of secrecy.  I’ll not mention the name of the service as yet, but suffice to say that when it hits big, it hits big!  Trouble is, as I’m only trialling it, I’m using very small stakes and a proportionally very small bank.  Oh well, the signs are ‘promising’, shall we say?

Elsewhere though, and things have continued to be all a bit gloomy.  The killer for me, other than Saturday’s horses, has been the Value Bets.  Concentrating mainly on Player to be Shown a Card markets and the Enhanced Specials, simply because I’ve found these the easiest to find good levels of value within the restricted time I have, are going through a cold spell.  For me, anyway.  Tom at Bookie Bashing talks of waiting for the heater to arrive, and believe me, I am waiting for all the warm, glorious bone seeping heat to arrive in all its glory.  Bring me that heat!  I worship at the altar of all that is warm and goodly.

It’ll come, I’m sure.  But right now, it feels like I’m on the North Pole wearing only a thin cotton T-shirt and a pair of linen shorts.

Figures below…

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 1,270pts, +90.49pts, roi 7.12%, roc 6.03%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 970.5pts, +233.58pts, roi 24.06%, roc 11.67%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 643pts, -137.56pts, roi -21.39%, roc -6.87%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,648.19pts, -685.94pts, roi -41.61%, roc -34.29%.

The Value Machine: Staked 6,090pts, -90.73pts, roi -1.48%, roc -4.53%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 4,489pts, -195.08pts, roi -4.34%, roc -9.75%.

Trial Service: Staked 966pts, +521.71pts, roi 54%, roc 69.56%

TOTAL: Staked 15,686.94pts, -438.74pts, roi -2.79%, roc -4.61%.

Is anyone else beginning to lose interest in Premier League football?

I was chatting to an old mate over the weekend.  Big Man U fan (I know, I know) who has a season ticket at Old Trafford and back when we were both much younger and free of the expense that are children, used to go to loads of away games too.  He was a proper died-in-the-wool fan, but is someone who now is so disillusioned with the way the game has gone, is considering giving up his season ticket.  And he never bothers with away games any more.

And it got me thinking.  I mean, I think I’m a pretty staunch Arsenal supporter.  I used to travel down to Highbury for every weekend home game and some midweek too, which from Cheshire is no short journey.  And after a few years of what felt like purgatory, I can now really invest emotionally again into a team that has been seriously on the up for the past couple of years.  We’re now serious Title contenders, and believe me, that should feel amazing.  I’ve always felt that the thrill of football supporting was not necessarily winning, but being competitive.  That old Wenger/Ferguson era rivalry between the two Clubs was petrifying, exhilarating, demoralising (when losing) and yet capable of putting me on a high for weeks (when winning).  Depending on whether winning or losing, I felt elation or real pain.  It was bloody marvellous.

And yet, despite Arsenal’s recent renaissance, I just can’t fully let myself go and enjoy it.  VAR has, in my opinion, done nothing but bad to the game.  The inability to be able to completely let yourself go when your team scores an important goal because you have to wait to see if someone was offside by a millimetre (and I have no time for anyone who says offside is offside – the law was introduced to prevent gaining an unfair advantage by goal hanging…being offside to such a narrow extent as it takes ten minutes for lines to be drawn and images analysed means that the spirit of that law has definitely not been infringed and the attacker really hasn’t gained any conceivable advantage!!! – so do one!).

And the other major issue I have with VAR?  That it has shone a very bright and uncompromising light on the incompetence and inability to act consistently, of our referees and the PGMOL.  Seriously, they are so incompetent it makes me wince, and then wonder if there’s anything more sinister going on.

I’m not saying that referees are taking bungs or that they’re bent in any way.  But we do know that spot fixing and dodgy betting patterns are a thing in top level sport (cricket and tennis have seen well publicised and proven spot fixing controversies).  And here’s the thing.  Whereas both cricket and tennis set up fully transparent and accountable, independently governed units to investigate and expose suspicious betting patterns and to tackle the problem of spot fixing, football and the body that “regulates” football referees in this country, is about as transparent and accountable as, err…something that isn’t either transparent or accountable.

And so the optics aren’t good.  It’s only very recently been decided by the PGMOL that their leading referees can’t moonlight by reffing matches in the Saudi Pro League and the UAE League, when two leading Premier League clubs are owned by the Vice President of the UAE and the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia?  Talk about a conflict of interest!

And then on Saturday we have a referee on VAR who is not allowed to officiate Liverpool matches because he is a fan, influencing the on-pitch ref’s decision to give a yellow card and instead issue a red and so send off one of Arsenal’s best player meaning he misses the next match through suspension.  Which team is that next match against?  Liverpool.

Again, not saying this is corrupt.  But what “governing” body worth its salt creates a situation where this is even a thing?  An incompetent one, that’s what.

I’ve come away from the original point a little.  And what’s all this got to do with betting anyway!?!

Not a lot truth be told.  Was wondering if it’s just me who is no longer really finding the beautiful game to be that beautiful any more?

Just one thing to note though, and worth checking out if you haven’t already.

Ted Knutson is a former professional bettor, who in an interesting career to date also played a large part in developing Pinnacle Sports as a major global bookmaking firm, and worked with FC Midtjylland and Brentford as a Data Analyst.  He has been very much at the forefront of the development and use of sports analytics within the top levels of the professional game.

Anyway, he has recently launched a free, daily newsletter which is such a refreshing read.  It’s insightful, entertaining, and provides an intelligent assessment of aspects of the game that the likes of pundits on Sky and Talksport could only dream of providing.  He has also launched to go with it, a betting service concentrating on the Premier League, the Championship and the Champions’ League.  This was initially free, and I signed up to it.  I didn’t follow with money, but found the breakdown and angles being explored each week fascinating to read.

As it happens, the results weren’t that great, but I believe have really picked up over the last couple of weeks or so.  I didn’t subscribe when it went down the subscription route (although it’s pretty cheap at about £15/month).  I’m not for one moment recommending you sign up to this and devote a betting bank to it.  But the free newsletter, I couldn’t recommend more strongly.  You can find it at The Transfer Flow.

Back soon.

I’ll be honest with you, things betting are a wee bit tiresome just at present.  A more or less sideways week, a touch less than a touch more, which is a pity.  If I take a step back and see that actually, the recovery from what was a really sharp drawdown early in the month has been pretty positive.  But you know, it would be kinda nice to get things moving into positive territory again.  The grind is grinding, if you catch my drift.

Let’s start with the positive, and from a pretty low position The Value Machine has been the model of consistency, and in fact for the month has now got to where I would like it to be.  It has just stuck its nose above the 5% ROI line and I really hope it kicks on from here.  I still can’t quite manage a profitable Saturday with it, although this week the loss was pretty small and was followed by a very good Sunday.

Saturdays have been a bit of a kicker for me all round, in recent times.

Frustrating times with the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker which as always, through up a number of loss-making Lucky 15s, but but still just avoiding the big 4/4 winner that really kicks everything on again.  Came very close over the weekend with two 3/4s, and if Hull had not buggered up against Sunderland yesterday afternoon, we’d be talking about an overall 30% ROI for the month.  But they did, and we’re not.

Just a small loss with the Golf Tracker too.  Much less by way of overlap between my list of bets and those of the Weekly Golf Value, and I believe I came out a little better again by having three placed in the US Tour tournament whilst WGV had just the one.  Two of mine were at 70/1 too, so the loss overall amounted to little.  There will be weeks of course, where I’m outperformed by WGV, but as I keep telling myself, with similar market coverage each week, over time we should end up in pretty similar positions.

A mixed weekend for Sys Analyst, Saturday bad, Sunday good (with two decent priced winners) so a claw back of some earlier losses here, and exactly the same comments apply to Winner Odds Football except the good day was the Saturday and poorer Sunday.

The elephant in the room is the performance of the Value Bets, which is almost a third of its bank down.  As much of my betting here is on Player Cards, I can easily compartmentalize this by blaming the refs.  They really are useless!

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 850pts, -28.36pts, roi -3.33%, roc -1.89%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 669pts, +341.08pts, roi 50.98%, roc 17.05%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 480pts, -166.56pts, roi -34.7%, roc -8.32%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,363.64pts, -594.51pts, roi -43.59%, roc -29.72%.

The Value Machine: Staked 4,680pts, +237.43pts, roi 5.07%, roc 11.87%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 3,293pts, -159.99pts, roi -4.85%, roc -7.99%.

Trial Service: Staked 708pts, -51.12pts, roi -7.22%, roc -6.81%

TOTAL: Staked 11,652.89pts, -596.84pts, roi -5.12%, roc -6.28%.

You may recall that a couple of Bet Diary posts back, I mentioned that I would be using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to find my weekly golf bets more, and rely on the Weekly Golf Value tips less.  The reason for this planned shift was that after a couple of bookmaker accounts had started to impose staking restrictions I was finding it harder to get on every one of the WGV players at either the correct price, or to the correct stake, or to both!

I’ve been on this path before, and know where it leads.

The thinking behind using the Tracker to a greater extent is based on two factors.

1. I can set it up to take prices from bookmakers I can still get on with without any problem; and
2. I’ll not be following the crowd lumping on the same golfers at the same books as soon as the WGV email comes through (which might, you never know, slightly increase the chances of staying under bookmaker radars for a little bit longer than might otherwise be the case).

I’ve tended to look at the Tracker at around midday on the Wednesday, which is fairly close to the time I know Bookie Bashing do the same to produce the list of golfers for WGV members to back that week.  Unsurprisingly then, in the two weeks I’ve been doing this there has been some considerable overlap between the golfers I’ve backed and those put up in the WGV email.

Before doing this, I have had to mentally prepare myself.  It is inevitable that at some point, WGV is going to put up a winner that I haven’t backed, and I guess I’m not going to like that.  Interesting psychology this.  I’ve had to forcibly remind myself that of course, there will also be times when WGV don’t put up a winner that I’m on (more on this in a moment), but in the same way that an unlucky losing bet seems to remain in the conscious for longer than a lucky winning bet, so the negative thought process here feels like it is overriding the positive.  Which is daft.

WGV look to cover around 15% of the field in terms of win probability in any one event.  I am looking to do the same, but using the Tracker for myself.  Over time therefore, our results should look very similar as long as we are both taking value prices at roughly similar odds.

Another difference I’ve noticed over the past two weeks is the staking.  On the Bookie Bashing site, there is a Golf Staking Calculator that I use.  This has however, generally speaking, meant that I have been staking slightly less on certain golfers that WGV also put up.

This brings us to this last week, which has been something of a triumph for WGV/Bookie Bashing golf betting!

First, the European Tour event in France.  Dan Bradbury was put up by WGV, and had also picked him out as a suitable bet using the Tracker.  The difference between the two was that the stake WGV assigned to Bradbury was literally twice the size of mine, and the recommended book was one offering 125/1…that I can’t use.  Instead, I was on at 90/1 (one reason I imagine the stake was lower, as an iteration of Kelly staking is used whereby a larger stake is assigned when there is perceived to be a higher level of value within any given bet).  I’m never going to complain about a 90/1 winner!  I merely point this out to illustrate where using the Tracker may have a different outcome than simply following the prescriptive WGV list.

So, a great golf betting weekend.  But, it was only half way through…

On to the US tournament over in Utah.  I was on rookie Matt McCarty from the Tracker.  WGV was not.

McCarty went into the final round two shots ahead and there was really no sign of rookie nerves throughout the last 18 holes.  He won by three shots, and I was on another winner, this time at 50/1!  An example of where using the Tracker has paid off.  Like we said above, there will be times it works the other way, and it’ll be important to remember this win when that happens.

A great golf betting weekend turned into an exceptional one.  Happy days.

Overall, last week was a pretty decent one, helped in no small part by the golfing success.  It would be unfair to say that it was only the golf that contributed however.  It was generally speaking, a decent all round portfolio performance that has clawed back about two thirds of the previous week’s sharp and horrible losses.

More on that however, in the next post.  In the meantime, here are the figures…

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 445pts, -0.19pts, roi -0.04%, roc -0.01%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 452pts, +370.1pts, roi 81.88%, roc 18.5%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 339pts, -250.8pts, roi -73.98%, roc -12.54%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,159.52pts, -548.07pts, roi -47.26%, roc -27.4%.

The Value Machine: Staked 3,160pts, +48.34pts, roi 1.52%, roc 2.41%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 2,063pts, -124.43pts, roi -6.03%%, roc -6.22%.

Trial Service: Staked 370.5pts, +136.16pts, roi 36.75%, roc 20.17%

TOTAL: Staked 7,781.27pts, -359.82pts, roi -4.62%, roc -3.78%.

Just following on, in a way, from the previous post and the experience of Bookie Basher Tom in being subject to completely unnecessary personal abuse after posting his Vlog.

This isn’t concerning Tom directly, but I couldn’t help but think of what happened there whilst in the Discord channel of a service that I’m currently trialling.  The strategy they use is very definitely high variance.  The sort where you see and expect a lot of losing bets before hitting a big win that wipes out the losses and then some.

There were a number of messages on different threads from one chap, bemoaning that having set aside a not inconsiderable set of money for this service, after two days he had staked a pretty significant proportion of his bank and had suffered losses.  His displeasure was clear, as he cast doubt on the efficacy of the strategy and – to my mind at least – just staying the right line of calling it a con.  The use of the word “beware”, aimed at others in the channel who are also trialling the service, is what gave me this impression.  Maybe I’m reading too much into it, maybe I’m not.

The replies from “Admin” were consistent, incredibly polite, and showed admirable patience.  Far more patience than I’d have been minded to provide, I don’t mind saying, so credit to them for that!  And look, who knows?  Maybe there isn’t an edge (although I’m pretty darned sure there is), which is why I’m trialling to seriously small stakes (not much more than paper trading, if I’m honest), but to give it two days?  It was the line, “winning in the long run….I’ve heard that before”, that finally did me in and I had switch off the laptop.

On a serious note, I do worry about the thinking with which some people go into betting.  This chap professed to have decades of betting experience.  Got to admit I was struggling to see much evidence of it based on his comments, approach and attitude.

In other news, this week so far has been about stopping the rot and starting to claw back the losses that hit last week.  The Value Machine, after a couple of very solid days has clambered just about into green territory for the month, and a couple of winning bets at World Grand Prix of Darts sourced from the Bookie Bashing x180s Tool have provided a little relief too.  What would really do the trick is a big win on the golf come Sunday.  Oh how sweet that would be!

What has been frustrating has been the inevitable impact of this latest international football break (yaaaaawn!!) has had on turnover.  But what can I do about that, eh?  Nothing, nothing at all.

Have a good weekend, folks.

You know that when you look at the past week, the highlight is that by using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker yourself and not just relying on the Weekly Golf Value bets (as mentioned last week), you’ve managed a slightly smaller loss than would otherwise have been the case…it’s not been a great week.

To be honest, I’d snap your hand off for “not great”.  The word I would use instead to describe the past seven days or so, is the title of this post!

We all know these spells happen from time to time, but it makes them no less painful to endure when they do.  It’s been a horrible week, with not one tipster or strategy used generating any profit, and a number producing a pretty sharp loss.  Diversification is supposed to stop such acute sharp, short term swings, but every now and then, the principles of diversification get trampled on and destroyed.

From Sunday, things have stabilised a little.  It feels akin to having a bad, open wound.  Somehow I’ve managed to stem the flow of blood, but I still need to get to hospital.  The losses are the flow of blood – since Sunday I’ve managed to scrabble a profit of about £50, which feels like it’s bought me the time for the ambulance to arrive.

I’m exaggerating a little, of course.  The drawdown only amounts to 10% of the overall betting bank, so let’s keep things in perspective.  It’s just when that 10% drop hits over the course of just three or four days, then it feels like quite a hard hit.  Suddenly you’re depositing more money into more accounts, and that always makes things feel worse.  I guess that’s a consequence of never wanting to hold too much money with any one company for any lengthy period of time.

I’ll post the figures below, as usual.  I’m not going to go into any detail about how any individual service or strategy has performed.  1. What’s the point? and 2. It’s too soon! Too soon, I tell you!

What I am going to mention is the total and complete waste of oxygen cowards who refuse to take responsibility for their own actions and who instead scapegoat someone else are.  Bookie Bashing Tom had just started a 25 day series of daily Vlogs, aimed at being entertaining (I find Tom always is, hence why the BB Podcast is a must listen) and educational.  Here we have anyone at all able to listen to a renowned professional gambler talk through his bets, explain some of the edges, and go into his thought processes.  Genuinely, I reckon if instead of a Vlog series someone like this ran “seminars”, marketed them aggressively, and delivered the same content, they could charge a lot of money for attending.  I’ve seen it happen in the property world.

Instead, we could get this insight for free.  Every day for a near-month.  What an education that could have been, but instead some brainless, selfish, good-for-nothing bell-ends (hyphenated?) have seemingly ruined it for everyone else by submitting Tom to vitriolic personal abuse!  Seriously, what sort of person do you have to be?  As a result, Tom (and I do not blame him) has at best put a temporary pause on issuing these Vlogs, and at worst has just brought a halt to them altogether. I don’t blame him.  I’d do the same.

I don’t know any detail.  Last Wednesday was a bit of a shocker with almost all of a relatively large number of bets I placed that I’d derived from the BB Tools I use being losing bets.  I noticed that there was (unsurprisingly I guess, bearing in mind the same source) a fair amount of overlap between the bets I had placed and those that Tom was talking about and striking himself.  Did people just blindly follow him, do their money and then let loose with all that nonsense aimed at Tom?  That’s my guess.  Either way, hurling crap at someone from behind a screen is to my mind, an offence that should be punished by public shaming so cowardly is it.  Bring back the stocks and rotten tomatoes, I say.

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 400pts, +31.5pts, roi 7.87%, roc 2.1%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 240pts, -47pts, roi -19.95%, roc -2.39%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 182pts, -155pts, roi -85.16%, roc -7.75%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 960.06pts, -427.8pts, roi -44.55%, roc -21.39%.

The Value Machine: Staked 1,810pts, -171.35pts, roi -9.46%, roc -8.56%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 1,536pts, -224.82pts, roi -14.63%%, roc -11.24%.

Trial Service: Staked 7.5pts, +47pts, roi 626.66%, roc 6.96%

TOTAL: Staked 4,927.81pts, -948.55pts, roi -19.24%, roc -9.98%.

What do we think is the most common mistake made by folk who want to elevate their betting to a “serious” level and who rely on the skills and abilities of others to do so?  In other words, those who follow tipsters – where do we err most frequently?

From personal experience, I reckon there are a number of “areas of weakness” that I had to really work on.  I made so many mistakes that looking back now, make me cringe.

Paying too much for a service in subscription fees in relation to the size of bank we have, or not setting up a separate betting bank in the first place are two errors I hear a lot about.  Choosing to follow a tipster whose approach to betting isn’t psychologically suited to our own risk profile is another; ie. if you really struggle with long losing runs then starting with a golf service or a horse racing tipster whose tips average out at 16/1 and longer isn’t likely to end well.  Trust me, I’ve been there, done that!

I hate to say it, but jumping in bed with a tipster who has no proofed track record, can provide no detailed breakdown of performance, relies on non-independent affiliates to drum up a customer base…we’ve all been there (have we?…tell me we have!).  Actually, maybe not nowadays, but back in the day…

Anyway, the point is, is that there are loads of mistakes we can make and a lot of traps we can fall into.

But, I reckon the most common error I see being made is finding a tipster with a clearly defined and statistically proven edge, and then not allowing him or her the requisite time for the edge to manifest itself.

And I get it.  You join a new service, and you get off to a losing start.  No matter how much you have read about it before committing, ingested and digested the reviews, done the statistical research and absorbed the findings of Monte Carlo simulations (all framed within the context perhaps, of a service that has successfully been generating profit for years)…until you start benefitting yourself it is almost impossible for you to reach the point of complete “buy in”.

There’s nothing worse than joining a service only to get off to a losing start.  Which is exactly what has happened to me with The Value Machine.  Actually, the first week or two was really profitable, and then a drawdown hit.  Which in some ways, is even harder to take.

SBC Towers received an email from a member who, reading my Bet Diary report, asked if the The Value Machine edge should not have shown itself after the number of bets that have been placed (for context, I average at just over 30 bets per day and have done since the start of last month).  That’s around 900 bets for September, and yet I’m in negative territory.

I’m not a statistician.  I’m no mathematician either.  But from all the reading I’ve done over the years I understand that this isn’t a big enough data sample of bets from which to draw any conclusions.  Not when the average odds of the bets is 5.86/1 (for those interested, I set my TVM parameters at finding selections between Evens and 10/1).

Trust me, when your drawdown reaches 40% of the betting bank with a service that you’re yet to make any money from, it’s hard to think like this.  And I’ll tell you something.  If this had been me when starting out on my betting journey, I reckon I would have quit, or come very close to.  Which would have bene the complete wrong thing to do.

Others, who have a different psychological profile to me, may not batter an eyelid in the same circumstances.  The only reason I’m not tearing at my hair and running around shaking my fists up at the Gambling Gods and declaring “Infamy! Infamy!  They all have it in for me!” (Carry On Cleo), is through experience and having seen/made this mistake countless times before.

Which is why I think it vital to have certain rules in place to provide a framework.  Something that provides guidance and perhaps takes guesswork out of any decision making process around deciding whether or not to continue with a service that is struggling. This could be when starting with a service and having got off to a sticky start, or for a service you’ve been with for a long term and have benefited from financially.

My “framework” is very simple.  I track all current drawdowns, and maximum drawdowns suffered to date with any one tipster.  If at any point, a drawdown reaches the point that is equal to the size of the bank that was initially set aside for it, then that’s it.  A line is drawn.

So say, for sake of easy numbers, you sign up to a new service and assign to it a bank of 100 points.  In the first two years, you make a 300 point profit.  At that point there is a horrible drawdown that reduces your profit by 200 points (the size of your original bank) – that’s when I would quit.  I’m still 100 points to the good, but the drawdown has reached the original bank size of 200 points.

As for The Value Machine specifically.  This is a service with an exceptionally long, proven track record.  But looking at its history, it is clear that – much like golf betting – it is very common to go weeks without making any progress and then see a spurt of profit that takes members to a new profit high point.  With the odds profile as it is, we need to see a lot more bets come through before having any sort of expectation that the edge really should have made itself evident, buy hasn’t (with the inference that there is no edge any longer).

Compare to WinnerOdds Football.  I don’t think anyone can deny the edge that exists there.  And yet here I am, 1,260 bets in (at much, much shorter average odds per bet) at an ROI of just 0.96%, way below the long term that sits around the 5% mark.

The conclusion?

If we’re with a service that ticks all the right boxes in terms of it having been analysed and proven to have a long term edge, then we need to give it ample time for that edge to manifest itself to our benefit.  And that means striking a LOT of bets.  More than I’ve placed myself for The Value Machine and WinnerOdds Football.

I have no doubts at all about the existence of the edge with these services.  My fear comes more from being able to keep (or not!) bookmaker accounts open for long enough for me to be able to profit well from the edge that exists.  That’s a completely different mindset.  My safety net in terms of winning or losing comes from the betting bank and funds I’ve set aside – reach the point where a drawdown hits the points betting bank assigned…that’s when I’m out, and not before (unless the accounts go).  That’s my way of avoiding the mistake I made several times before the penny dropped…the mistake of quitting something really good, far too soon.

I delayed doing the weekly Monday figures update, saving it for yesterday’s totals to be counted up and instead doing an end of month review post today.

First, the final figures for September.

ROI: 5.03%.

Bank Growth (ROC): 11.52%

That’s not too shabby a month, and ultimately provided a welcome relief from the purgatory that was August.  And yet, in some ways, September is one that has somehow felt like a month that got away.  It’s hard to shake the feeling that with just a shade of fortune being for me and not against me, it would have been a bit of a stormer.

What do I mean by this?  Simply that there are a few bets that didn’t win, that really on another day, would have.  You can say that all the time when betting, of course.  I realise that.  And over time, these things all even out and we get the “lucky” wins that really boost profitability and provide that lovely warm feeling that you can do know wrong (whilst also knowing that it ain’t going to last!).  Don’t know about you, but there are days, just occasionally, when almost everything you back seems to win, with all the fine margins going for you.  All I’m saying is that this past month, when it came to fine margins, they went the other way.  It happens.

Drum roll please, for Tipster/Service of the Month…

SYS ANALYST!

What a fantastic month for Allan, and a strong rebound from what had been a testing period beforehand.

Staked 641.8pts, +625.98pts, ROI 97.53% (!), ROC 31.29%.

Incredible figures from a month that barely had a losing day, a couple of really big priced winners, and all win bets (the majority) backed using the Exchanges.  There was one biggie each way winner that I used a bookmaker for, but other than that the majority of the profit is net of 2% commission with no danger of having accounts restricted.  Fantastic stuff.

Now let’s take a look at the rest, in order of decreasing profitability.

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 8,269pts, +518.67pts, ROI 6.27%, ROC 25.93%.

Like Sys Analyst, WO Footie bounced back strongly from a poor period of underperformance.  The ROI this month much closer to where my long term expectations lie, although overall that parameter is still languishing somewhat with more catching up to do.  The first week of the month was my most profitable so far, and was followed up with two more weeks ending in the black and just the final weekend dragging things down a little.

My concern, as ever, is ongoing viability with bookmakers due to the nature of some of the games/leagues we’re playing in.  To counter that, the actual liability per bet to the bookmaker isn’t actually that high, despite the high stake size because often, the odds are very short.  I’m hoping this will help but, significantly, I have had to wave goodbye to two accounts this past month.  When a certain other book goes by the wayside, then I have a problem.  Which leads me on to…

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 1,200pts, +251.51pts, ROI 20.95%, ROC 16.76%.

A month that epitomises what to expect from this style of betting (Lucky 15s).  One bet, with all four teams winning, generated a profit of just shy of 400 points.  The total for the month was 251.51.  As these figures demonstrate, the strategy here is that knowing we have a good edge, we place as many Lucky 15s as we can, endure a lot of losing slips or small wins, just waiting for the big one to land.  Historic records show that these hit frequently enough to ensure an overall high ROI…and that is exactly what has happened through September.

Despite the figures, I’m just a little disappointed not to have been able to get more bets down.  An international break early in the month didn’t help, and with 80 bets struck, I fell significantly short of my turnover target.  Note to self – must do better!

Bookie Bashing “Value Bets”: Staked 2,260pts, +219.66pts, ROI 9.71%, ROC 10.98%.

A fabulous last weekend/yesterday really pulled things around for bets that until then had made a small loss all told, into one that finished with double digit ROC.  Bets on Cards and Enhanced Specials did the trick.  One ES on the Bournemouth/Southampton match last night was HUGE value…when the sixth corner was given to land this particular bet (after that *!@!!* Michael Oliver didn’t give what was such an obvious corner that would have made it six, meaning a relatively anxious few minutes hoping for the sixth that just weren’t necessary!) it was happy days indeed!

Think I mentioned it last week, but really enjoying finding the value bets for myself.  Something just so very rewarding about it. It’s the same as the feeling you get from a perfectly executed cover drive that you hold the follow through for just to pose, and not even have to consider running as you watch the ball scoot to the boundary.  Mind you, it’s been a while since one of those, got to say.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 588pts, -231.5pts, ROI -39.37%, ROC -11.57%.

Really not much to comment on what is a pretty average golf betting month for any service that specialises in this particular sport.  We go through periods without winners.  Fact. (see comments above on the EP Tracker…we just keep placing the bets and wait for the big one)

Just one thing of note.  I had to replace one of the WGV golfers last week with my own from the Tracker as my lad’s accounts start to be restricted.  I can see this trend strengthening where each week more golfers are sourced by myself from the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker.  I have no issue with that, whatsoever.  In fact, I may start to do this more moving forward anyway as it means getting different bets on different players at a different time to the WGV subscriber base.

The Value Machine: Staked 9,590pts, -291.43pts, ROI -3.03%, ROC -14.57%

Well, what a ride this has been!  From being very nicely up to a drawdown that reached the equivalent of 40% of the bank at its lowest (so far) mark, with a tiny bounce back in the right direction yesterday.  Two drastically poor Saturdays have done for me.

Lots of bets, and a bit of a grind which is always more difficult when not winning, of course.  I have been asked if after this number of points staked (959 individual bets), should the edge – if there is one – ought not to have revealed itself?  The short answer is ‘No’, but my next post will go into this in more detail, so that’s all I want to say about that here.

Like WinnerOdds, my bigger fear here is losing accounts, although Kieran’s stated strategy of lots of bets at relatively low stakes is one I’m following with this service.  Fingers crossed then, we get a good run from the bookmakers.  Time will tell.  I do limit the number of bets I strike with any one particular company each day too, which is easy to do as so many betting opportunities come through.

So there we have it.  Autumn hasn’t got off to a bad start.  Let’s see what October brings.

I love following tipsters.  It comes from a very early realisation on my part that I had no skill at all in finding an edge in a sport and being able to exploit it to make money.  And believe me, years ago I tried.  And tried.  And then tried some more.  Had I not been much more than a callow youth, I would hope that my dumb male pride wouldn’t have prevented me from admitting as much to myself.  As it was my lack of humility was ultimately I’m sure, the sole reason for the cashier in the local bookie – who knew I was underage – to always welcome me into the shop with open arms.  Even offered me a job at one point as a ‘Board Marker’.  That’s how keen he was to keep me on the premises!

Then I found tipsters, and suddenly there was light at the end of the tunnel.  The one part of my personality that would have made me a good soldier – and I mean one – is that I can follow instructions and orders, presuming I could see why by doing so I might benefit.

And now having said all that, can I just say how much I enjoy using the Bookie Bashing Tools to search for value in the markets?  I’ve watched all of Tom Brownlee’s videos on his site, many more than two or three times.  I’ve picked snippets up from the Bookie Bashing Podcast.  And putting things together to help me search for +EV bets is really rewarding.  I can recommend it.  Better than bloody Sudoku!

I’ve tried to concentrate on one angle at a time.  Primarily around goal scorers initially, particularly in the Any Time Goalscorer market.  Then it was the Enhanced Specials offered up daily by BetDaq and Matchbook (is it me or is value there just becoming a little less common – more people catching on?).  And now it’s attacking the ‘Player to be Shown a Card’ market.

Tom was talking about how folk had told him how lucrative this has been recently, and seems to be profiting himself.  And although it is ridiculously early days for me as yet, I’ve got off to a really strong start.  Having started last Thursday, I’ve played in 11 matches since, and six of them produced profit.  All told, I’m standing at an ROI of 29.9%.

Now I’m not saying that that sort of figure is any way sustainable.  Truth be told, I’d settle on about 15% of that.  Going to be fascinating to see what happens from here.  I have a suspicion that as more people cotton on, the edge may erode.  Let’s hope not.

And that brings me on to another subject raised by Tom in a recent Bookie Bashing podcast.

Call it plagiarism, cheating, downright fraudulent…copying others work and then seeking to benefit commercially from it by passing methods off as your own is bang out of order.  And my worry is that if this happens, the likes of Tom are simply going to clam up so that they protect their edge.  They will not share their thoughts and processes with us mere mortals, and why would they?

The beauty of Bookie Bashing, I find, is that if you allow yourself to be, you can be properly and very well educated.  I would hate for that to stop, if for no other reason than I find listening to clever people who know more about their specialty than I ever will, is fascinating.  To me, that was the thrill of the SmartBash.  Trust me, there were some very clever people there, very much worth listening to.

And finally, and on the theme of clever, knowledgeable people – if you haven’t already, make sure you listen to the SBC Podcast with Matthew Trenhaille (Trench).  Seriously, is there anything about betting, market making, bookmakers, etc that he doesn’t have a huge depth of knowledge about?  And is there anyone else who can put their thoughts and knowledge across in a more easy-to-understand and entertaining way?  I could listen to the man for hours.

I guess that makes me a Fan Boy.  Who would have thought…?

After a lot of bets the week just gone ended up more or less even, a few quid in the red but barely anything.  Talk about grinding it out.

Annoyingly, a horrible Saturday for The Value Machine ultimately proved very costly, but more on that shortly.

Let’s start with the positive, and another strong week (especially Sunday which saw 5% bank growth) for WinnerOdds Football.  Some big bets going down on 1.11 bets and similar, but plenty of smaller but successful bets on longer prices too.  If I break down my stats from when I started with the service, bets priced between 1.0 and 1.4 are performing to a negative ROI of -0.46%, and those between 1.4 – 1.6 at -2.04%.  Then come the most profitable categories by far; 1.6 – 1.8 are chugging along very nicely at 6.93% and those between 1.8 – 2.0 at a fantastic 9.42%.

What this means is that when I have a dirty great big stake going on a 1.11 shot as on Saturday, I find myself checking for the result in a way I wouldn’t with anything else.  Need to stop doing that.

Anyway, all is well as ends well for WO Footie this week.

It’s felt a little while in the coming, but on Friday I had the first four up in a Bookie Bashing Lucky 15 sourced from the Early Pay Out Tracker for the first time this season.  Decent prices too, and that one bet provided a profit equal to 24.7% bank growth, and has pushed the ROI for the month to date up to 37.3%.  Sadly, each and every other day for this strategy was a losing one, but I can live with that when we get winners such as this.

Sys Analyst carried on the good work done this month.  Only in action on the Friday and Saturday, a nice winner at just over 11/1 on the Exchanges and a 20/1 place at a bookmaker ensured more profit.  It’s been beautifully steady this month, and long may that continue.  Actually, “steady” doesn’t do it anywhere near justice.  Bank growth this month is currently 22% and the ROI is 172.4%.  Let’s upgrade “steady” to “bloody spectacular”!

A profitable week too, for the various Bookie Bashing Tools Value Bets.  After listening to Tom in various videos and the Bookie Bashing podcast, I’ve been concentrating a lot more on the Cards markets and to date it has proven to be a good decision.  I’m going to go into more detail in my next post, but suffice to say at this stage that cards bets provided by far the biggest chunk of the profit last week.

A quiet week for Weekly Golf Value which opted not to get involved in the LIV tournament, and with no PGA Tour event that meant there was just the DPWT PGA British Open to go at.  No placed = no returns.

And then we come to The Value Machine.  It was only last week I was talking about how swingy I was finding it on a day to day basis, and unfortunately Saturday was very much a downswing day.  Of 61 horses backed, only six won, and apart from a 6/1 shot, the other winners were priced at 2/1 or lower.  You don’t need to be a mathematical genius to work out that that was only going to end in a pretty hefty loss.  The drawdown from the last high is now the equivalent to almost a third of the bank.  Going to be interesting to see what happens next.  I’m strapping myself in for the ride.

September Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 855pts, 319.74pts, roi 37.39%, roc 21.31%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 492pts, -187.5pts, roi -38.1%, roc -9.37%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 256.8pts, +442.94pts, roi 172.48%, roc 22.14%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,497.71pts, +33.96pts, roi 2.36%, roc 1.69%.

The Value Machine: Staked 6,870pts, -193.73pts, roi -2.81%, roc -9.68%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 5,291pts, +645.89pts, roi 12.2%, roc 32.29%.

TOTAL: Staked 15,282.51pts, +1,063.3pts, roi 6.95%, roc 9.24%.