OK, this is getting a wee bit silly now.  If you’ve read my last post – a review of October’s betting – and I tell you that the biggest contribution to a strong weekend’s profit came from the actions of one man, you’d know who I’m referring to, right?

Yup.  Erling Haaland.

His brace yesterday landed the Delight bit of the only Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven bet I’d struck across Saturday and Sunday.  Furthermore, I got a nice surprise when despite being lauded as 111% +EV on the relevant Bookie Bashing Tracker at a price of 2/1 to score the first goal, he was actually 5/2.  I ended up winning more than I thought I would.

Two things have got to happen moving forward.

One: surely, surely (?), Haaland’s price to be First Goalscorer will contract further.  We’ve got to be looking at 6/4 or 7/4, no?  The fact that I believe City’s second leading scorer this season is Burnley’s Max Esteve with two own goals, kinda tells you the score when it comes to the chances of it being Haaland opening the scoring for his team.

Two: Haaland’s rate of scoring will slow.  His current rate HAS to be unsustainable, doesn’t it?  I appreciate my feelings on this are compromised courtesy of desperately wanting to see City lose ground in the title race, but even appraising the situation with a dose of cold, hard logic, the numbers the big lad is posting are ridiculously good.  Too good.

Do I believe that?  You know what?  I’m not too sure I do.  I never want to wish injury on a professional sportsperson, but I wish someone would injure him!  But then, I think of the cash he’s won me these last few weeks, and….and….oh, I’m so conflicted.  When will these voices in my head stop!?!

Great weekend for Touchdown Profit with five winners from six bets with one match/bet to play.  Would have been six from seven but unfortunately I missed the line on one of the Total Points picks which ended up an easy win.  I ain’t complaining, though.  This was a fine weekend for the NFL expert, and well done to them!

Good start to November too for The Transfer Flow who continues to build the profit at a rate that is about as sustainable as Haaland’s scoring (I think).  These bets are on the Asian Handicaps, so to be running at an ROI from the start of September of 19.3% is a bit daft.  A weekend ROI of 28.8% though, is…..appreciated.

Final point around the weekend’s football.  Since when has it been lawful to take a man out a split second after getting the faintest touch on the ball?  As an Arsenal fan and seeing two penalties (correctly given, in my opinion) overturned by VAR this season because the offender had got a slight touch on the ball, I appreciate I may be sensitive to the issue.

But yesterday, as a neutral, seeing West Ham’s penalty award being overturned for the same reason, and then less than five minutes later see Freddie Potts clearly win the ball first before sliding into the man and although not booked, see a free kick awarded against him and given a stern talking to by the ref…I mean, what?!?  So that’s a foul, unless it’s in the penalty area, and then it isn’t?  There’s no rule that states getting the ball before the man is legal, so VAR getting the decision right “to the letter of the law” as one pundit said, is, err, bollocks.

Feels at the moment if you’re in the penalty area, a defender can get a little toe to the ball before karate chopping the attacker in the nuts and administering a quick blow to the windpipe, and it still wouldn’t be a penalty.  Or at least it would, until VAR does what VAR does.

I say I was neutral.  I had West Ham scoring two goals or more on a football coupon and at that point they hadn’t scored any.  Still, all’s well that ends well, eh?

November 2025 figures (stakes normalized):

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (L15s): Staked 135pts, +4.95pts, ROI 3.6%, DD 0pts, Max DD -5.16pts.

BB EW Golf Doubles: Staked 0pts, 0pts, ROI 0%, DD 0pts, Max DD 0pts.

DD/HH: Staked 50pts, +250pts, ROI 500%, DD: -0pts, Max DD -0pts.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 0pts, 0pts, ROI 0%, DD -0pts, Max DD -0pts.

Sharp Betting Football: Staked 900pts, +63.72pts, ROI 7.1%, DD -0pts, Max DD -0pts.

The Transfer Flow: Staked 160pts, +46.22pts, ROI 28.8%, DD: -0pts, Max DD -0pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 121pts, +76.31pts, ROI 63%, DD -0pts. Max DD -0pts

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 80pts, -12.5pts, ROI -15.6%, DD -12.5pts, Max DD -12.5pts

Total: Staked 1,446pts, +428.7pts, ROI 29.6%, DD -0pts, Max DD -0pts, Bank Growth 6.3%

After a frustrating September, came an October long to be remembered.   If ever there were two consecutive months that illustrate just how important it is to grind through the bad times, these were they.

Three things:

Weekly Golf Value putting up 200/1 winner Junghwan Lee.

A Lucky15 taken from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker containing three double-digit priced winners.

Erling Haaland.

Combined, these three things were the dominant contributors to a month that coughed up near 30% total bank growth and an ROI of almost 16.5%, way above my target.  Happy days indeed.

Funnily enough, I wrote a couple of weeks ago that October was something of an experimental month for me.  The transition – for the second time in my betting career – away from using online books and more and more towards the shops meant feeling the water.  What can I follow, which strategies can I use, that best fit around other commitments?  Which can I follow consistently?  And yes, which do I enjoy using most?

I’m going to break down thoughts in the next few posts, but for now, the only thing I should be asking myself is should I experiment more often!?!

Anyway, moving into November and I feel clear and settled on what I can and can’t do.  It genuinely feels as if some fog has cleared, and at the risk of sounding like Johnny Nash, I can see clearly now.

Despite the 200/1 WGV winner, it was actually the BB Racing Tracker Lucky 15s that provided the greatest profit on the month.  Yes, there was that one big bet, but there were three or four others that kept it all ticking over throughout the month.  If I remember correctly, my ROI was hovering around the 15% mark before I hit that big win.  Around 30% of the profit was actually from all bets other than that one.

Weekly Golf Value has obviously had a stormer, and whilst I can still get my bets on online, I’ll continue to follow.  There will come a point soon where I’m going to have to use the Tracker myself and get down to BetFred, Ladbrokes and William Hill and stick down cold, hard cash.  Talking of which, we’ve not yet seen the returns we expect from using the Each Way Golf Doubles strategy but it’s only a matter of time.

It really pains me to give credit to Erling Haaland but the fact is he’s been a fine contributor to the profit this month.  Perhaps I should rather look at it as other City players being unable to score much, but whatever, the Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven strategy has been very kind.  I know from past experience however, that it can go a long time in a state of drawdown and I’m not going to get carried away.  That the largest drawdown I experienced following this September reached just -35 points tells us everything we need to know about the heat of the hot streak its been on!

Finally, I’ve really enjoyed The Transfer Flow.  If you don’t want to get the bets but have an interest in football and statistics, and would appreciate reading material that doesn’t fall for the constant false narratives perpetuated by so called expert pundits, the daily email is well worth subscribing to for free.

I’ll not dig into detail on the disappointments on the month right now.  The figures are below and after a month like this one, why dwell on the negative?

Let’s see what November brings.

October 2025 figures (stakes normalized):

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (L15s): Staked 1,510pts, +1,153.64pts, ROI 76.4%, DD -0pts, Max DD -244.62pts.

BB EW Golf Doubles: Staked 231pts, -96.65pts, ROI -41.83%, DD -121pts, Max DD -121pts.

BB Darts Tool: Staked 240pts, +48.49pts, ROI 20.2%, DD: -16.78pts, Max DD: -38.05pts.

DD/HH: Staked 345pts, +427.5pts, ROI 123.91%, DD: -0pts, Max DD -35pts.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 385pts, -93.84pts, ROI 24.37%, DD -198.79pts, Max DD -198.79pts.

Value Bets/Enhanced Specials (Exchange): Staked 315.4pts, -112.87pts, ROI -35.78%, DD -112.28pts, Max DD -112.28pts.

Sharp Betting Football: Staked 8,406.11pts, -131.79pts, ROI -1.56%, DD -436.6pts, Max DD -436.6pts.

The Transfer Flow (Trial): Staked 860pts, +174.56pts, ROI 20.29%, DD: -0pts, Max DD -34.51pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 380pts, -159.42pts, ROI -41.95%, DD -159.42pts. Max DD -159.42pts

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 684pts, +993.62pts, ROI 145.26%, DD -0pts, Max DD -218.8pts

Total: Staked 13,356.51pts, +2,203.24pts, ROI 16.49%, DD -0pts, Max DD -427.92pts, Bank Growth 28.99%