Thankfully, a better weekend.  Is this the start of the big recovery?

Well, we have to start at some point, although with (yet) another second place for Weekly Golf Value, the second in consecutive weeks, things still feel a little bit sticky, if you know what I mean?

Had Elvis Smylie finished in top place, it would have been a big win, but with betting, going down down the route of ‘What Ifs’ is a dopey thing to do.  If my Dad’s brother was a woman she’d be my aunt, kinda thing.  I think where I’m coming from is that when in the jaws of a bog drawdown, even when some decent profit has been made to have another close run second means that some frustration is inevitable.

Let’s put this into context though.  Yes, it is frustrating, but only mildly so.  This is all part of the gambling game we play.  I found yesterday’s first half team selection for the Arsenal more frustrating, let’s put it that way!

Anyway, before I get to the figures, some thoughts on The Value Machine Exchange Profit.

Where to begin?

Look, variance is a hard mistress, and I don’t know what TVM has done to upset her, but upset she is!  And she’s showing her displeasure on an almost daily basis, with horses being touched off by the slenderest of margins, of winners that don’t quite hit the required price to back, and losers that just hit the right price to back.  Variance has hit hard over the past couple of months and my Exchange balance has been badly affected.

The fact is that my current drawdown figure has reached pretty darned close – some might say perilously close – to the bank allocated to following the service.  I’ve read, and written, many pieces on when do stop following a tipster or service.  My thoughts on the matter is that there are two main reasons.

1. You can’t get on any more, or at least the practicalities of getting on are so arduous that it’s just not reasonably feasible.
2. You hit a drawdown the size of the bank attached to the service.

To put it brutally, I need TVM to hit some winners, and fast.  That we’re in this parlous state is a real sadness, too.  The service is run by two proper pros, each of whom have a tremendously long track record of success running excellent and profitable tipping services.  I trust them, and their methods.  I genuinely believe TVM has been the victim of shockingly poor variance, but a line does need to be drawn at some point.

I’m praying that we have something of a recovery over the next few days.  Nothing would give me greater pleasure than for things to turn around and we begin the road back to a new profit high.

Back to the weekend that was, and an excellent Sunday from SharpBetting Football, plus the profit from two placed golfers in the one tournament held (oh, how much more it nearly was!) has provided light at what I’m hoping is the end of a pretty dark tunnel.

The next few days will tell us, I’m sure.

September 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 664pts, -93pts, ROI -14%, ROC -6.53%

BB Tracker Each Way Golf Doubles: Staked 304pts, -186.79pts, ROI -61.44%, ROC -9.33%.

David’s Daily: Staked 1,078.5pts, +427.83pts, ROI 39.66%, ROC 42.78%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 630pts, -161.92pts, ROI -25.7%, ROC -12.95%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 394.8pts, -102.9pts, ROI -26.06%, ROC -6.86%.

SharpBetting Football Model: Staked 3,122pts, +129.66pts, ROI 4.15%, ROC 8.64%.

WinnerOdds Tennis: Staked 7,219pts, -276.09pts, ROI -3.82%, ROC -13.8%.

TOTAL: Staked 13,412.3pts, -263.21pts, ROI -1.96%, ROC -2.44%

David’s Daily: Staked 870pts, +372.78pts, ROI 42.84%, ROC 37.27%, Drawdown: -16.41pts, Max DD: -90.65pts.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 2,062pts, +687.2pts, ROI 2.43%, ROC 68.72%, DD -447.64pts, Max DD -549.09pts.

For those not aware, David’s Daily is a “curated” selection of picks chosen from the SharpBetting football model.  You can read more about the service, if an SBC member, in SBC Magazine 151, released in April of this year.

I was quite happily using the model myself, backing only in singles, and this strategy got me off to a flying start with the service.  After generating profit at a ridiculous rate of knots, things then went much quieter and as you can see from the figures above, I endured a fair old drawdown.

Taking things in context though, a 68% level of bank growth in just about five months is pretty decent to say the least, but I would like to overall ROI figure to be a little higher now.

In an attempt to squeeze more out of the service in terms of ROI, I have split the bank, dedicating half to David’s Daily and half to SBFootball.  The idea is that, with David’s Daily advising plenty of multiple bets – particularly it seems, patents and Lucky 15s – alongside singles, you would expect a much higher ROI.

So in effect, I’ve tried to achieve a balance.  Steady but sometimes slow progress via singles, and the odd big win from a successful multiple.  A good start with such a strategy, with a big winning patent last week which accounts for almost all the profit I’ve had so far.  A good start.

In the sea of recent murk, this offering has provided the one shining light of hope.  Let’s keep fingers crossed that continues.

I knocked back this post by a couple of days, mainly to see if the bookmaker I use more than any other, and which has already put an end to my betting esports and football, would still allow me to bet on golf.  Why the concern?  Because over the weekend it effectively stopped me betting on tennis, with a subsequently huge knock-on effect for my ability to follow WinnerOdds Tennis.

More on that later, but thankfully I can report that, after receiving this week’s Weekly Golf Value bets just after lunchtime today, I am still able to bet on golf without limitation (or at least with a limitation that isn’t such that it effects my staking) with this book, the identity of which I’m sure you’ve all worked out!

There is a lot for me to write about.  A current drawdown that is the worst I’ve had for at least two years has coincided with my losing the use of four online bookmaker accounts.  That is a horrible combination.  You kinda accept losing accounts after winning period, but when they hit at a time you’re on a downturn it really hurts, because suddenly recouping the losses becomes more problematic.

I know I’m verging on that stage of transitioning between betting predominantly with online bookmakers to having to use cash in shops and the Exchanges.  I’ve been there before, and I know it’s a transition I’ve made successfully before.  It’s no less annoying though, as being able to bet whilst working, online, is so much more practicable in terms of time management.

It’s all good material for the Bet Diary though.  Far too much of it to fit into one post.  So the plan is to post daily for a week (not Saturday/Sunday), with each post being dedicated to thoughts on each tipster and service I follow, the current state of play, challenges I’m faced with, and possible solutions that I’m still chewing over.  I’ll start tomorrow with David’s Daily.

For now, what you do need to know is that everything I’ve bet on recently seems to have lost.  And this losing run has all the hallmarks of the classic misery-inducing bollocks that tends to happen when you’re on one.  Injury time goals going against you, horses winning when they’ve not been bet because the price was a tick below requested, horses losing by a nose when the price was such that you were only just matched, golfers losing in a play-off to deny a big win.  You name it, in the last month, I think I’ve suffered it.

Not that I want to sound defeatist, depressed, or whatever.  This is all part of the game.  We all know it, and we all know that we just have to ride out the storm.

I’ll keep each individual service’s figures for the posts I do on each (and then bring them altogether again at the end), but for now, here are the overall (painful) numbers:

September 2025

Staked 11,460.5pts, -640.85pts, ROI: -5.59%, ROC: -7.81%.

See you tomorrow.

Still feels like I’m wading through treacle, uphill, against a strong current, into a headwind.  There are many at Lindow Cricket Club who would say that sounds like my bowling, but I am, of course, referring to my betting.

With the season effectively done, I’ll soon be able to put a bit more into what I do at weekends again.  Quite looking forward to it, to be honest.  We seem to have adopted the brother-in-law’s dog (NOT my idea) so a morning and middle of the day bet placement, followed by a blustery walk and home to a hot chocolate and maybe, a little later, a good bottle of red….all sounds quite appealing.

What would add to the allure would be to start making some money again, instead of losing it.  A blank week for Weekly Golf  Value put paid to the chances of this weekend being a profitable one.  More concerning is the form of The Value Exchange Exchange Profit.  My personal drawdown with this has now reached the equivalent of two thirds of the bank.  It happens, and as I’ve been at pains to make clear on a frequent basis, others following the service may be faring much better than I.  The problem I’m facing though is that repeated deposits into my Exchange accounts mean that the thorny issues of affordability checks are now something to be mindful of.  And quite frankly, I really can’t be arsed with all that!

Let’s hope for a reversal of fortune.  And fast.

Not much else to report.  Coming up to the busiest part of the week for WinnerOdds Tennis and after three successive loss making weeks, I could do with a change in the direction of the prevailing wind there, too.  Were it not for the big David’s Daily winning patent last week, things would be very miserable indeed.  Just note that I’ve tweaked my staking slightly and altered the banks accordingly for SharpBetting Football.  I’m switching to a level staking approach on the singles (historically higher variance but higher level of profitability and ROI) from the Sharp Stakes method.  And level stakes on all David’s Daily picks too.

Here’s to a better week.

September 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 166pts, -166pts, ROI -100%, ROC -11.06%

BB Tracker Each Way Golf Doubles: Staked 0pts, 0pts, ROI 0pts, ROC 0%.

David’s Daily: Staked 230pts, +353.51pts, ROI 153.7%, ROC 35.35%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 310pts, -99.87pts, ROI -32.21%, ROC -6.65%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 102.8pts, +86.68pts, ROI 84.31%, ROC 5.77%.

SharpBetting Football Model: Staked 1,348.5pts, +85.77pts, ROI 6.36%, ROC 8.57%.

WinnerOdds Tennis: Staked 3,958pts, -235.79pts, ROI -5.95%, ROC -11.78%.

TOTAL: Staked 6,310.3pts, -94.27pts, ROI -1.49%, ROC -1.19%

I suggested in the last post that I was looking to tweak things a little.  I have.

Issue no.1: how to look to raise the ROI using SharpBetting Football?

As time has gone on, I’ve tended to drift my betting towards services that run models.  I guess this is fairly typical.  With technology advancing, such a move is probably unavoidable, but that’s not to say there aren’t some very good “traditional” tipsters out there providing a heck of a good service to their customers.  Subscribers to the SBC know there are.

So any model that can churn out a large number of bets that have a proven long-term edge, is always going to be of interest to me.  This is the secret of faster bank growth -the ability to churn.  The other advantage this approach has is that stakes can be kept at a relatively low level.  We’re betting more, but in much smaller chunks, which is something I feel can only help extend the life of bookmaker accounts for as long as possible.

All of this is why I was so keen on SharpBetting Football.  I subscribe to the “full” package, which means that in addition to the David’s Daily picks, I have access to the model as it spits out value bets.  15 minutes in the morning I can get down 15+ bets.  Repeat at lunchtime, and you can see why this fits the criteria I’ve just written about.

My ambition here, backing in singles, is to run along at something around the 5% ROI mark.  I’m at roughly half of that at present, although I feel the last couple of months have seen the variance Gods be a touch angsty towards me.

However, the David’s Daily picks provide multiple bets as well as singles, and from writing the SBC review of the service a few months ago, I know that the multiples have been responsible for providing the majority of the overall profit and at a much higher ROI.

So, why not continue to back the singles in the way I am, and add the DD picks when I can?  Other than the fact that there are a couple of sportsbooks that DD recommend bets at that I don’t have, I don’t see the downside.

I started a couple of days ago.  And if the Variance Gods were touchy, whichever God responsible for allowing my first set of bets to produce a winning patent, should drop me a line and I’ll sacrifice a goat tout suite!  That’s 34.84pts profit right there!

Happy days then, except that WinnerOdds Tennis has continue its recent slump for me and saw me give two thirds of that profit back to add to previous heavy losses last week and the beginning of this.  I absolutely flew when I started following, but those Gods I keep talking about…I reckon they saw me as another Icarus, and soon sent my tailfeathers spinning.  The last couple of weeks or so have been heavy going, losing up to 31.22 units of profit.  Still in profit, but the ROI has dipped to 1.76% across the 569 valid bets I’ve struck so far.

As far as “long-term” is concerned, 569 picks doesn’t cut it.  Let’s get to 1,000 and see where we’re at.  What’s clear is that the problem is largely based in having three relatively very-highly staked bets losing at a price of 1.2 or lower.  It’s a killer, and looking at the graph on my WinnerOdds account stats page, the strike rate of bets priced up to 1.2 is at 81.2%, below what it needs to be. Again, we see variance toying with me.

Before we get too gloomy though, I am still sitting on bank growth of 21.66% achieved in less than two months.  Perspective is everything.

So overall, September has got off to a marginally profitable start, thanks to that one big winning David’s Daily patent.  But it’s been a rocky road so far.

Have a great weekend!

September 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 0pts, 0pts, ROI 0%, ROC 0%

BB Tracker Each Way Golf Doubles: Staked 0pts, 0pts, ROI 0pts, ROC 0%.

David’s Daily: Staked 110pts, +357.76pts, ROI 325.23%, ROC 32.52%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 230pts, -19.87pts, ROI -8.63%, ROC -1.32%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 58.6pts, +106.48pts, ROI 181.7%, ROC 7.09%.

SharpBetting Football Model: Staked 898.5pts, +2.68pts, ROI 0.29%, ROC 0.17%.

WinnerOdds Tennis: Staked 3,432pts, -218.84pts, ROI -6.37%, ROC -10.94%.

TOTAL: Staked 4,924.1pts, +109.64pts, ROI 2.22%, ROC 1.3%

August has not been a kind month.  Prior to it, and even halfway through, I was flying.  And then the worst drawdown I’ve seen so far in 2025 hit, and as I type, I’m still sitting at the lowest point.

Let’s go through each service, with some brief thoughts on each.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 6,151pts, -140.96pts, ROI -2.29%, ROC -9.39%, Current Drawdown -411.74pts, Max Drawdown -549.09pts.

I mentioned in the post the other day that it feels a good while since the last profit high had been reached.  A poor last week of the month did for August as up until Monday/Tuesday it was sitting on about 5% ROI and 100 points of profit.

Slight tweak this month in the way I’m following.  I’m going to try to get down as many of the David’s Daily selections as I can, which is viable bookmaker account dependent (for example, I can’t get anything more than pennies on at the Betfair Sportsbook, which is a firm DD uses a fair amount), but hopefully with the odd multiple hit, the ROI will at some point rise above it’s current 2.81%.  With the same aim in mind, I’m going to start putting on some of the longer priced bets from the Tracker.  I was tending to concentrate on those selections between a price of 1.7 and 3.5, but I’ll get rid of these arbitrarily drawn parameters and just get on anything that comes up at the bookmakers I can still bet at.

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 1,700pts, -526.07pts, ROI -30.9%, ROC -35.3%, Current DD -898.6pts, Max DD -898.6pts.

This is the service I have most concern about.  Another two Saturdays, and I’ll be able to get on Saturday and Sunday issued bets, which I’ve not been able to do since April and I appreciate this will have had some impact on my P&L.

Up until this point, I’d been using a mix of bookmakers and the Betfair Exchange to get the bets on at.  The former if the quoted price was available at a bookmaker I had access to, or on the latter if not and I could get the required price in the five minutes leading up to the off.  With my list of available bookmakers getting shorter by the week, I’m going full Exchange on these moving forward.  This is a theme I’ll write more about later this week.  Yup, those restrictions are biting again!

Tilt The Odds: Staked 595.8pts, +325.04pts, ROI 54.55%, ROC 21.66%, Current DD -47.25pts, Max DD -417.07pts

The one shining light of August, largely thanks to a winning Trixie and a Double that came home at decent odds.

The one issue I have with TTO (other than the declining number of bookmakers I can bet with) is that I’m not really in a position to get a lot of bets down and I know I’m understaking as a result.  Being free at weekends will help here, but I also feel I need to do something to make up the deficit in overall staking.  I have a couple of ideas on how to do this which I’ll reveal shortly.  It’s all about making your betting bank work efficiently for you, and try as I might, I can’t quite get there with TTO.  So for now, and until I have no online bookmaker to bet with, I’ll keep plugging away with TTO and squeeze out of it what I can for as long as I can.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 1,295pts, +1,031.4pts, ROI -16.68%, ROC -14.4%, Current DD -398.72pts, Max DD -398.72pts

WGV remains my most successful service to date for 2025 despite a losing month that had no winners.  As you can see too, I’m at the deepest point of drawdown so far this year, but it should be noted the actual amount lost remains fairly minor.  We can expect a lot worse with any golf service.  One good win, and the loss will be eradicated and we’ll be at a new high point.  We weren’t far away this weekend gone with Sami Valimaki finishing in second.  We know the winners will come, it’s just a matter of when.

WinnerOdds Tennis: Staked 16,854pts, -7.7pts, ROI -0.04%, ROC -0.38%, Current DD -569.61pts, Max DD -677.34pts

If ever a service showed the so very fine lines between success and failure, it has been this one.  It was absolutely flying, and then a couple of weeks ago a couple of very heavily staked bets at 1.08/1.15 area lost, and 40% of the profit I’d made was given back within just a few days.

It is so very tempting to just ignore the bets that come through at very short prices.  You can’t help but ask yourself why you’re risking almost 200pts on a 1.08 shot.  But the WO advice is to just keep on taking the bets.  They all hold +EV, they all contribute to a growing pot over time.

The other challenge for me is that it has cost me a few accounts already, and that has had a knock on effect in terms of following other services.  This month, I’ll be using WO to help me squeeze as much juice out of one particular sports book as a I can.  That firm has already stopped me betting on eSoccer, has restricted me to pennies on horses (although not on multiples as yet), but still allows me to stake unrestricted on tennis and golf.  It’s only a matter of time though before I can’t get on these sports either.  Going to be interesting to see just how long it does last.  Watch this space.

Finally, I need to update the Each Way Golf Doubles figures which I’m running as a sideline trial.  Nothing doing last week, nor this week as the PGA Tour in America takes a breather.  I need to pick up a (minimal) return from a couple of weeks ago though, and as yet I’m not entirely sure how much that will be for.

I’ll leave you with the total portfolio figures for the year to date.  Later this week, I’ll talk about the looming issue I’m facing (losing accounts) and how I intend planning to make another shift towards Exchange and shop betting.  I’ve made that journey before, and before long, I’m going to have to make it again.

Tune in for that.

2025: Staked 82,609.15pts, +4406.89pts, ROI 5.33%, ROC 55.08%, Current DD -1,395.55pts, Max DD -1,395.55pts