Last week’s Weekly Golf Value winner Keegan Bradley (110.0) ensured it was another profitable week. Things are progressing nicely now, as we approach the end of the third month of the 2023/23 betting year.

All three golf tipsters are now in profit.  Edwards Tips is running at 22.6% ROI, PGA Profit at 21.6%, and Weekly Golf Value/BB Golf Tracker at 4%.  As my betting has progressed, the more of it is on men ruining a good walk, so it’s pleasing to say the least, when all three are in the black.

All this means that we’ve now hit a new profit high for the betting year, and the ROI remains north of the long term 10% target I set myself.

Here are the figures:

Betting 2023-24

DD/HH: Staked 55.05pts, -6.6pts, roi -11.88%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -9.65pts, Max DD: -15.85pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf Outrights): Staked 23pts, +10.037pts, roi 22.68%, High: 13.087pts, DD: -3.05pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -8.692pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Weekly Golf Value/BB Golf Tracker: Staked 2,503pts, +101.27pts, roi 4.04%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -34.12pts, Max DD: -581.59pts

BB Racing Tracker Lucky 15s: Staked 191.067pts, +4.058pts, roi 2.09%, High: 14.655pts, DD: -10.597pts, Max DD: -16.279pts.

NFL: n/a

PGA Profit: Staked 212pts, +45.858pts, roi 21.63%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -39pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 110pts, +19.197pts, roi 17.45%, High: 27.284pts, DD: -8.087pts, Max DD: -15.79pts.

Value Bets: Staked 40pts, +3.9pts, roi 9.75%, High: 16.9pts, DD: -13pts, Max DD: -13pts.

TOTAL: roi 10.96%.

It was interesting to read that Craig Edwards (Edwards Tips) is soon to be going through with members his approach to betting on golf using the Exchanges on a Wednesday evening.  For someone like me, who sees 80% of golf bets being placed via the Exchange, this promises to be fascinating reading, and I’m looking forward to it.

Craig has made the point that when he releases bets early in the week, usually taking advantage of what he sees as ricks in the Bet365 markets, there is often a lot of +EV to take.  In other words the quoted prices represent big value, and even as the markets mature and prices shorten there remains a good margin to profit from.

I would think that the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker may well pick up on some of Craig’s bets as that searches for steamers and exploits “smart” money.

Talking of the Golf Tracker, Weekly Golf Value had a nice winner in the US with Keegan Bradley (110.0 on the Exchange) so my win only approach paid off this week.  However, those who follow the service and can still back each way with online books would have had a great week with several other golfers finishing in the frame and at some fancy prices.  Same with Edwards Tips.  And PGA Profit.

So although it was a good week, it does feel like I’ve missed out a bit on everyone else’s fun.  Not to worry.  I’m sure there will be weeks when I’m the one with the smug grin.

See you Wednesday.

I’m typing this very early on Thursday morning, and the hot coffee I’ve got next to me is going down very well indeed.  I got home yesterday very late, and it had been a very early start, so you’re going to have to forgive me when I tell you I’ve not yet had time to update my figures.  I’ll do that later this evening and will add to this post for those of you who are following such things.

To be honest though, last week was one of those ‘meh’ weeks we get.  The sport on the field was far from ‘meh’, with England and Australia playing out an enthralling 1st Ashes Test Match, and the US Open Major Golf Championship providing excitement to the end.  Sadly in terms of betting excitement however, there wasn’t any.

Rickie Fowler provided a place return for Weekly Golf Value with him being one of those I was able to get on at a value price down the local BetFred, but it was a disappointing final day for the American who had led or joint-led from shooting a record low score in Round 1 to the start of Round 4.

The Bookie Bashing Lucky 15 strategy broke even again, and nothing of note anywhere else.  Like I said, one of those ‘meh’ weeks.  Let’s see what goes down this week.

 I mentioned a couple of weeks ago I’d give some thoughts on my recent decision to back my golfers win-only.  Choosing today to do that is something of an irony, because of last week’s eight golfers put up by Weekly Golf Value, five of them I backed each way!  The only reason I did so was because I could, and get value on the price of each golfer to place, which is what WGV sets out to provide.  How?  Simple.  Because it was one of golf’s majors, BetFred were going eight places in the shops, so I was able to back the relevant players with cash, netting a return from Rickie Fowler’s Top 5 finish (it could have been so much better for the guy who led for three quarters of the tournament).  I backed three of the WGV picks win-only on the Exchange, plus another two win only that I got from the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker.

However, value is not always prevalent at the shops on the more mundane, week-to-week tournaments.  At least, not when I can get to the shops.  I will be trying to find some, and utilise those ‘to place’ prices, not only with WGV but those players put up by Edwards Tips and PGA Profit too.

So I would estimate that 80% of my golf bets moving forward will be win-only on the Exchanges, and 20% placed in cash in the shops.

Adaptability through your betting journey was a key theme discussed when I was a part of recording a soon-to-be-released SBC podcast last week.  And it’s interesting when I reflect on the fact that if at the start of my betting life I’d even consider backing golfers at big prices win-only, never mind actually doing it, well… It just wouldn’t have been something I’d have given a moment’s consideration to.  I found backing horses at odds over 4/1 a mental trial.

I guess experience counts for a lot.  Now, I genuinely do just switch off any thoughts of winning, try to be as consistent as I can be in what sort of bets I take and from whom, and dispassionately wait for the next winner.  Sure, it’s great when the winner comes and it can get tense when I’m watching a golfer I’ve backed and in contention battling down the back nine on the last day…but for 99% of the time it’s all a pretty mundane exercise.  Very, very few adrenaline rushes.  Just an acceptance that it’s all a waiting game, and it could be a long wait.  So what’s the point of getting excitable?  Tom Brownlee has spoken of the ‘Dark Arts of betting’.  One of them is making sure you can get on.  Got to admit, that’s kinda what I concentrate on now.  Getting on.  And after that, what will be will be.

Perhaps I’m dead inside?

Results update on Wednesday.

There really isn’t very much to report at all this in terms of results.  The only really positive move was made by Sys Analyst putting up some decent winners although as I explained the other day, I missed out a bit on Sunday when in a place where I’m not even sure if they’ve heard of the internet, never mind be able to get 4G on the ‘phone.  Still, that shouldn’t happen often so I’m not too perturbed.

Elsewhere and it felt as if the PGA event was one that got away rather.  This is the problem of betting win-only.  Having a number of golfers finish in the places, including Tommy Fleetwood after losing a play-off for Edwards Tips, you may as well have backed a load of golfers who missed the cut.  It really was a week of so near yet so far on the golf.  Still, things are still ticking along ok at an ROI of 10%+, and yet to have a big win on the Lucky 15s this year and only a matter of time before a large profit from the golf.  All told, it could be going a lot worse.

DD/HH: Staked 55.05pts , -6.6pts, roi -11.88%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -9.65pts, Max DD: -15.85pts.

Edwards Tips: Staked 21.25pts, +11.787pts, roi 27.73%, High: 13.087pts, DD: -1.3pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -8.692pts, Max DD: -8.692pts

Lucky 15s (£15/pt): Staked 156pts (£2,385), +2.229pts (+£33.44), roi 1.42%, High: 14.655pts (£223.87), DD: -12.695pts (-£190.43), Max DD: -16.279pts (-£244.19).

NFL:

PGA Profit: Staked 199.5pts, +58.358pts, roi 29.25%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -26.5pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 59.2pts, +27.284pts, roi 46.08%, High: 27.284pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -15.79pts.

Value Bets: Staked 40pts, +3.9pts, roi 9.75%, High: 16.9pts, DD: -13pts, Max DD: -13pts.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 2,230pts, -319.61pts, roi -14.33%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -515pts, Max DD: -581.59pts

TOTAL: roi 10.33%

I promised I’d jot down a few thoughts on Sys Analyst now that I’ve been following for a couple of weeks or so.

In short, I love it!

One thing I remember writing about a few years back, when I started blogging, was how I wondered how on earth tipsters avoid burn out.  I think we all know betting in anything approaching a serious way can, for a fair chunk of the time, be a pretty gruelling slog.  Imagine carrying the responsibility of maintaining your edge for day after day for a membership base, facing not only pressure for producing the goods for yourself but for an expectant following too.  Can’t be at all easy.

So one thing I really like about Sys Analyst is that Allan, the main man, prioritizes.  He has an eye on the strength of the markets, the ease with which his members can get on (or not) to decent stakes at decent prices, and isn’t at all shy of saying he’s taking a couple of days away when the circumstances are right.  That makes huge sense to me.  Stay fresh, and it’s easier to stay focused.  My first five overs are usually pretty tight.  Stick me in 25 degree heat and ask me to bowl 12 however, and you may find the odd stray ball creep in (take note, Skip!).

There’s no need to try to force profit, and I feel very comfortable with a tipster who knows that.

Other things to note.  I really like the minimum price to take, especially handy when using live pre-race markets into which I put my stake.  Below the line, don’t bet.  There’s no perceived value, so why do it?  Generally speaking, I’ve got on almost all the bets I want to.  The only issue I face personally occurs at weekends.  So yesterday for example, coaching/managing our Women’s 1st XI, I found myself seemingly out of range of any 4G out in the North Wales sticks.  Missed a winner or two as a result, but I can live with that.

I’ve also been very keen not to rush onto the Exchange when the bets are received.  Must be infuriating for tipsters if they see a price smashed in on Betfair as soon as they send their emails.  I get the strong impression that the Sys Analyst membership base is a pretty sensible and experienced one so I’ve personally not noted any issues with this.  Anyway, from experience now I can say I’m not seeing prices becoming too short in the run up to the relevant races.  I tend to look to enter the market a couple of minutes or so before the off, maybe earlier if I see sustained market support and there’s a danger of the price dropping below the minimum acceptable.

So, all very good.  Really enjoying it, and if you are in a situation where you can pledge a really good sized bank (£10k and upwards as per the SBC review), I can recommend Sys Analyst very strongly indeed!

Latest figures posted on Wednesday.  See you then.

Last week was a good one.

First of all, Sys Analyst began to show exactly what it is capable of with a strong weekend.  I’m using certain filters which I won’t go into detail here, but if you read the recently SBC published re-review, you’ll be able to figure out what they are easily enough.  Bear in mind I’m using the Exchanges.

My intention is to write up some early initial thoughts on the service on Monday, so watch this space for that.  In the meantime, I can happily report winners at odds of 4.7, 17.5, and 9.6.  I was a little gutted to miss another on Sunday due to not being able to get the bet on, but I’m not complaining.

The other source of profit was Edwards Tips which had a superb 130.0 winner of the DP Tour event on Sunday.  I’m also planning on writing a post about how I’m transitioning fully to betting win-only on golf moving forward.  Having already adapted by starting to do so a few weeks ago with Weekly Golf Value, I’m now doing the same with Edwards Tips and PGA Profit.  More on that soon, too.

In the meantime, here are the updated figures:

DD/HH: Staked 55.05pts, -6.6pts, roi -11.88%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -9.65pts, Max DD: -15.85pts.

Edwards Tips: Staked 19.95pts, +13.087pts, roi 65.59%, High: 13.087pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -8.692pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Lucky 15s: Staked 142pts, -1.624pts, roi -0.95%, High: 14.655pts, DD: -16.279pts, Max DD: -16.279pts.

NFL: n/a

PGA Profit: Staked 183pts, +74.858pts, roi 40.9%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -10pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 45.4pts, +12.737pts, roi 28.05%, High: 12.737pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -15.79pts.

Value Bets: Staked 40pts, +3.9pts, roi 9.75%, High: 16.9pts, DD: -13pts, Max DD: -13pts.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 2,125pts, -214.61pts, roi -10.09%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -410pts, Max DD: -581.59pts

TOTAL ROI: 11.74%

Major internet/router issues last night meant I was unable to post at the normal time.

Busy day at work ahead (you know how it is!) so the post will be up this evening.  Apologies for the delay!

It’s been a very good week for the bottom line, as Edwards Tips picked a 129/1 winner of the DPWT Tour event and Sys Analyst demonstrates exactly why I was so excited to introduce it to the roster of tipsters I’m following with four consecutive nicely profitable days.

More on that on Wednesday though, when I bring the figures up to speed.

In the meantime, I can say that for a one week period, I “employed” my first bookie ‘Runner’.  For the uninitiated, this means trusting someone with your cash to go and put the bets on for you, something that if managed efficiently can contribute significantly to the number of bets you’re getting down, the amount of cash you can stake, and therefore profit you can make.

The good news is that it all worked pretty smoothly.  The bad news is that the runner is my son, who is now back home from Uni, and can no longer – for now anyway – make full use of the two BetFreds and a Paddy Power office that he could practically roll out of bed (at whatever ridiculous time students fall out of bed at!) into.  Still, the groundwork had been laid, he’s learnt the ropes, and his mission for the summer hols is to pass his driving test so he can do the same for me when he’s at home.

You’ve no idea the difficulties we’ve had getting this far.  Back in my day, banks would fall over themselves trying to get students to sign up and open accounts with them.  Not any longer, it would appear.  It has literally taken weeks for my lad to be able to open a second bank account.  He lives in student accommodation – privately-owned but associated to the Uni for student lets only (and it’s really nice, not like the infested, damp squalor I spent my student years living in!).  But of course he has no utility bill in his name, or whatever other document the banks insisted on seeing before opening a second, very, very basic current account.  Seems daft to me not to accept a tenancy agreement – I mean, what are they thinking?  That he’s paying all that rent money to someone who owns property he doesn’t live at!?!

Anyway, got there eventually, and we’re up and running.  Mind you, I wish he hadn’t.  Let’s just say the Lucky 15s I instructed him to get down last week were spectacularly unsuccessful.  I need someone to blame, and it’s him.  Useless tax-dodging git!

The undoubted hero of last week was PGA Profit which by tipping the winner of the Charles Schwab Open (Emiliano Grillo) in the US ensured a nice profit on the week overall.  It also provided an example of the Exchanges providing a bigger return than that provided by the bookies when your bet goes on to win the tournament.  I got 140.0 on the Exchange, the best bookmaker price on Grillo was 80/1.

It is nice to see a strategy work and I’m getting used now to using the Exchanges for my golf betting.  There may still be times I can use cash in the shops and therefore look to take advantage of more favourable place terms.  The Major championships are when these opportunities are likely to arise.  But for the week-to-week betting, the Exchange is where I will go.

Anyway, very well done to PGA Profit and its backers whose patience was nicely rewarded.  For me now, PGA Profit has hit a new high for the year to date.

Betting 2023-24

DD/HH: Staked 55.05pts, -6.6pts, roi -11.88%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -9.65pts, Max DD: -15.85pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf Outright) Staked 18.55pts, +0.445pts, roi 2.39%, High: 3.65pts, DD: -3.205pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -8.692pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 122pts, +5.849pts, roi 4.89%, High: 14.655pts, DD: -8.806pts, Max DD: -10.968pts.

NFL:

PGA Profit: Staked 173pts, +84.858pts, roi 49.05%, High: 84.858pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 28.6pts, -15.79pts, roi  -55.23%, High: 0pts, DD: -15.79pts, Max DD: -15.79pts.

Value Bets: Staked 40pts, +3.9pts, roi 9.75%, High: 16.9pts, DD: -13pts, Max DD: -13pts.

Weekly Golf Value (Win Only): Staked 2,023pts, -112.61pts, roi -5.56%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -308pts, Max DD: -581.59pts

TOTAL ROI: 5.93%