The 8.20 over in Ireland, last Monday.  I was on an 11/1 shot.  I don’t often watch the races I’ve bet on, but I’d made an effort for this one.

My selection eased its way to the front about three furlongs out and struck for home, pulling a length or so clear.  I was strangely calm, not really feeling any real emotion.  Sure, I was hopeful, but there was still a long way to go.  A cool cucumber like me doesn’t get all het up in moments like this.  It’s just another bet, at the end of the day.

Except it wasn’t.

It was only when about 100 yards from the post that my horse was overtaken.  It had been a bold effort, but backed each way the second place finish had merit, and a return.  The thing is though, that that beast was the fourth leg of a Lucky 15 that had already produced winners at 14/1, 22/1 and 7/1!!!!  I was 100 yards away from a five figure payout.

Was I b*!llocks as “cool as a cucumber”! I was shouting that nag on so loud my neighbours must have wondered what on earth was going on.  Was I disappointed?  Not really.  A four figure sum was compensation.

The bet landed a profit of over 108 points.  The bank is only 100 points.  And this to go on top of the 90-odd point earning Lucky 15 of a few weeks ago.

I realise that I am experiencing extreme positive variance.  This cannot go on, it’s that simple.  But by ‘eck I’m going to enjoy it whilst it lasts.  For those interested, I don’t have any science-based logic behind why I pick the horses for the Lucky 15s that I do.  I do use the Racing Pro version, for those familiar with the Bookiebashing product.  But beyond that, I just try to have a spread of different odds within the Lucky 15 and within those parameters tend to go for the horses offering the most +EV.  I’ll have one horse at 9/1 or under, two between 10/1 and 14/1, and one longer shot going up to 25/1.  And that’s it.  That’s my “strategy”.

I’m fully expecting a sizeable drawdown.  It’s just got to happen now.  Hasn’t it?

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 142pts, -9.93pts, roi -6.99%, roc -9.93%, High 0pts, DD -9.93pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 221.5pts, -42.168pts, roi -19.03%, roc -52.71%, High 0pts, DD -42.168pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 220pts, +291.292pts, roi 132.44%, roc 291.29%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 42.52%, ROC 76.28%.

…one of which won, and one of which lost.  Kind of sums up the Sports portfolio during what is undoubtedly the quietest time of the year.

The new football season is creeping closer.  It feels like it should be ages away, but with the World Cup interrupting the season in December, the European leagues are starting earlier than usual.  A number of Premier League clubs started back at pre-season training on Monday!  When that happens, and when the new NFL season starts late summer, then things will start to pick up again. Until then though, it’s going to be quiet.

The winner was for On The Oche which sets a new high water mark for the year.  The loser for The Poacher which sets a new low mark for the year.  I’m now in negative territory with the latter which clearly isn’t great, but I’m not worried or losing faith.  Not at this stage – the drop from high to low remains less than 25% of the bank.  My feelings are that this is simply a disappointing spell that will be put behind us.  One thing I do know is that The Poacher himself will be working hard to bring back the good times.

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 47.5pts, +7.64pts, roi 16.08%, roc 25.46%, High 7.64pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 140.5pts, -0.469pts, roi -0.33%, roc -1.17%, High 6.606pts, DD -7.075pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 4.27%, ROC 7.34%

This is a particularly brief post as there is very little to say about what can only be termed as a shocker of a golf betting week.  That the second best result – after one Golf Insider tip managing to grab a share of 8th in the PGA event along with about 35 other golfers – was Sungjae Im withdrawing before the start and so giving us our money back, says it all.

Perhaps The Rainmaker knew.  He didn’t get a return anywhere, but it was noticeable that he tipped up fewer players and committed a lower number of points to the week’s selections than I’d previously seen from him.  In some ways, that kinda feels like a bit of a win.

Let’s very much hope that this week brings better!

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 225pts, -39.635pts, roi -17.61%, roc -19.81%, High 29.24pts, DD -68.875pts, Max DD -76.35pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 459.5pts, +67.24pts, roi 14.63%, roc 13.44%, High 119.24pts, DD -52pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 120pts, -35.87pts, roi -29.89%, roc -23.91%, High 19.614pts, DD -55.85pts, Max DD -55.85pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 2,373.5pts, +799.03pts, roi 33.66%, roc 39.95%, High 1,136.72pts, DD -337.69pts, Max DD -435.75pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 596pts, -250.8pts, roi -42.08%, roc -62.52%, High 5.2pts, DD: -256pts, Max DD -282.6pts

Golf Totals: ROI -16.05%, ROC -12.9%.

A good week at the Royal meeting last week for Bet Alchemist.  Not sure how they did on the Saturday, but a couple of nice priced winners on the Tuesday and Wednesday ensured a health profit was made for my week at least.  We’re within touching distance of being break even for the year.  Hopefully the weeks immediately ahead will see us push into the black.

That marker feels a long way away at the moment for Northern Monkey, who as you might expect, was busy last week.  There were a couple of winners but a loss overall and we’re again at a low point for 2022 to date.  Other followers of the service may not be of course, but breaching the 50% loss of the bank is always a little uncomfortable, no matter how experienced a bettor you are.

A quiet week for Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker too with a profit, but one less than a point!  However, in what is a bit of a teaser, I strongly suggest you read next week’s post.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 134pts, -5.53pts, roi -4.12%, roc -5.53%, High 0pts, DD -5.53pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 204.5pts, -45.043pts, roi -22.02%, roc -56.3%, High 0pts, DD -45.043pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 198pts, +183.042pts, roi 92.44%, roc 183.04%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 25.79%, ROC 42.65%

It may be only a little bit, but a profit is a profit, and always – always! – better than a loss.

And so I’m going take the few quid I made from the sports tipsters last week, add it to the fund, and carry on.  That’s all I can do.  And you’ll never hear me complaining about adding to funds.

This past week finally saw an end to the Spanish Segunda league season, and I thought I detected just a hint of relief in The Poacher’s email.  He finished with two winners from two bets on Sunday, which was a nice way to round things off.

On The Oche eaked out the profit for the week though.  Nothing spectacular, just a touch over a half point’s worth, and that will do me.

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 46.5pts, +6.44pts, roi 13.84%, roc 21.46%, High 6.44pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 139.5pts, +0.531pts, roi 0.38%, roc 1.32%, High 6.606pts, DD -6.075pts, Max DD -6.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 4.19%, ROC 7.14%.

I stayed up to watch the end of the US Open last night, simply because Weekly Golf Value and The Rainmaker had both put up Will Zalatoris (I had 28/1 and 30/1).  Prominent at the top of the leaderboard throughout the final round, our man was neck and neck with ultimate winner Mark Fitzpatrick and would have forced a play off had he managed to hole his first putt on the last green.  Agonzingly, the ball rolled literally millimetres past the hole.

In top level sport, fine margins can dictate careers, let alone the outcome of single matches or events.  The width of a post, a fielder stopping a ball an inch from the boundary rope, a golfer rolling a putt fractionally wide…these are the things that matter.  And if these things dictate and separate the winners from the losers in sport, so they will those betting on the outcome.  Had Zalatoris holed that putt, it would have been the a big win on the week.  As it was, those millimetres meant a losing week.

It was a solid enough week for The Rainmaker who also had Keegan Bradley place, and therefore he turned a profit.  That was the only service to do so though (although judging by what I saw on Twitter, I think Ben Coley was on the winner!).

Let’s see what this week coming brings…

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 215pts, -30.635pts, roi -14.24%, roc -15.31%, High 29.24pts, DD -59.875pts, Max DD -76.35pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 442.5pts, +84.24pts, roi 19.03%, roc 16.84%, High 119.24pts, DD -35pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 120pts, -35.87pts, roi -29.89%, roc -23.91%, High 19.614pts, DD -55.85pts, Max DD -55.85pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 2,276.5pts, +896.03pts, roi 39.35%, roc 44.8%, High 1,136.72pts, DD -240.69pts, Max DD -435.75pts

Golf Totals: ROI -10.42%, ROC -12.9%.

The Rainmaker (400)(£5): Staked 584pts, -238.8pts, roi -40.89%, roc -59.7%, High 5.2pts, DD: -244pts, Max DD -282.6pts

Like with the sports services, I didn’t place one bet on the nags last week so there’s no performance update to be had.  Instead, we’ll continue the theme for the week of taking a view on where we’re at halfway through the year.

It’s all a little weird with the racing portfolio at the moment.  The overall ROI is at an absolutely outstanding 40%, and the ROC at 42% (remember my target for the full year is bank growth of 50%!).  And yet we have Bet Alchemist and Northern Monkey running at -13.5% ROI and -22.5% respectively.  With The Value Bettor contributing just 1.4 points of profit before the National Hunt season came to an end in April, you can see just how reliant we’ve been on the quite outstanding performance of the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker.

The rate of return from the Tracker has been quite remarkable (104.2% ROI) and I am well aware that it simply can’t continue.  At some point sooner or later I’m going to start to revert to the mean.  What I’ve experienced so far is clearly positive variance, and it’s as important to ot get carried away by that as it is to not get too doomy and gloomy when the variance is negative.

Which brings me back round to Bet Alchemist and Northern Monkey.  NMP in particular had a fine year last year, and I’ve no doubt the good times will return.  It would be nice if the midsummer months saw a real return to the form we know Wayne is so very capable of.  The same could be said for BA too.  With these two services we have very experienced tipsters who have been in the game for a long time.  That has to count for a lot, and I genuinely feel that it is simply a case of grinding away until the wheel of fortune turns full circle and we’re bringing in the profits again.

Let’s hope so.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 106pts, -14.392pts, roi -13.57%, roc -14.39%, High 0pts, DD -14.392pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 174.75pts, -39.322pts, roi -22.5%, roc -49.15%, High 0pts, DD -39.322pts, Max DD -40.047pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 175pts, +182.363pts, roi 104.2%, roc 182.36%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 40.24%, ROC 42.01%

Didn’t place any bets from the sports guys last week so no performance update.  So like with the golf yesterday, a chance to see where we’re at halfway through the year.

First off, there’s nothing really to judge Touchdown Profit on as with not following until January, it was only the play off season – and so fewer bets – that I’ve seen live.  In short, the tiny sample size is completely insufficient to draw any conclusions from.  I’m looking forward to the start of the new NFL season and getting stuck in.

I’m currently at break even point with The Poacher but there’s no panic at all.  Looking at Twitter, I think I’ve been fortunate to avoid a bit of a sticky patch over the last few days or so.  With a relatively low ROI, grind-it-out service like this, we’ve got to simply do just that…grind it out.  I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the second half of the year bring a lot more success than the first.

And then we have On The Oche, currently at a high point for the year and running along at an ROI of 13.5%.  I’ll take that any day of the week!

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 43pts, +5.84pts, roi 13.58%, roc 19.46%, High 5.84pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 135.5pts, +0.885pts, roi 0.65%, roc 2.21%, High 6.606pts, DD -5.721pts, Max DD -5.721pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 4.18%, ROC 6.84%

Week off last week, and it looks like I missed a Golf Insider winner.  Oh, well.  Last Wednesday evening (this being the time I place my golf bets each week) I did contemplate backing all the golf tips, but then prioritised family time, a walk along the South Devon cliffs in warm summer sunshine, and a pint and good grub in the local pub.  Can you blame me?

The week away did provide some breathing space though, and some time to take stock of how things are going so far this year for the services I follow.  As a result, there are one or two tweaks to make.

Firstly – and it was interesting to read an email from the European Tour branch of the PGA Profit service – I’ve decided that following the European Tour tips at the moment isn’t quite right.  Not because of the quality of tips (the source is impeccable) but simply because there have been so few it’s proving not to be an optimal use of resource for it to take up a betting bank.  With Tipster Matt making some interesting points about how the new rebel LIV events might affect the dynamics of the DP (European) Tour, I’m quite happy to take a watching brief for now.  There’s no need to rush in and if things all work out ok and sufficiently for there to be a regular supply of tips moving forward, I can always jump back on.

I’ve also decided to drop Ben Coley.  This was a much tougher decision to make, but the fact is, by getting on on Wednesdays, I’m missing a lot of the advised prices (and not really getting too close to them).  I’m sure with time I could do better by using the exchanges and waiting for prices to drift closer to the “off”, but that’s time I don’t currently have.  Sadly my schedule means Monday evenings, when the bets are issued, is a no-no for me too.

Elsewhere, Weekly Golf Value continues to excel, and PGA Profit has turned around a losing spell rather nicely recently and the long term prognosis is as strong as ever.  Waiting for Tour Tips to show their worth but their record suggests they will.

Finally, we just need The Rainmaker to show what he can do.

So in conclusion, the overall golfing figures at the halfway stage this year are clearly disappointing.  There’s no getting away from that…but I’m confident the second half of the year will bring about an improvement.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 209pts, -24.635pts, roi -11.78%, roc -12.31%, High 29.24pts, DD -53.875pts, Max DD -76.35pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 422.5pts, +104.24pts, roi 24.67%, roc 20.84%, High 119.24pts, DD -15pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

 Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 114pts, -29.87pts, roi -26.2%, roc -19.91%, High 19.614pts, DD -49.85pts, Max DD -49.85pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 2,175.5pts, +944.23pts, roi 43.4%, roc 47.21%, High 1,136.72pts, DD -192.49pts, Max DD -435.75pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 554pts, -272.2pts, roi -49.13%, roc -68.05%, High 5.2pts, DD: -277.4pts, Max DD -282.6pts

Golf Totals: ROI -10.06%, ROC -8.56%

A bet last Tuesday netted a 40 point profit. Within the Lucky 15 bet, there was a loser and three winners – at 14/1 (backed into 6s), 8/1 (backed into 7/2) and 13/2 (backed into 4s).  I felt like Barney Curley after one of his (in)famous coups!

On a serious note, the performance of the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker has been unbelievably strong.  Surely there just has to be a bit of a correction soon, because to generate bank growth of 180% from just 175 bets is something I’ve not seen anyone come close to doing before.

With the Golf Tracker coming up with the goods again on Sunday, surely a Bookiebashing subscription is a must for anyone who wants to take their betting seriously.

So from a collection of four racing services, the overall ROI now stands at 40%.  Two are in the red, and the third just over break even.  It shows what a job the Racing Tracker is doing at the moment. I’ve no doubt though that there will come a time when the Tracker struggles a little and the others start producing the goods.  It’s an inevitability.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 106pts, -14.392pts, roi -13.57%, roc -14.39%, High 0pts, DD -14.392pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 174.75pts, -39.322pts, roi -22.5%, roc -49.15%, High 0pts, DD -39.322pts, Max DD -40.047pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 175pts, +182.363pts, roi 104.2%, roc 182.36%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 40.24%, ROC 42.01%

Finally, just a note to say that there will be no Bet Diary posts next week – I’m on my holibobs.  Back the week after. 🙂