I think that with just one month of 2021 left to go, the sports portfolio has this year failed to deliver.  It just hasn’t worked, and whilst the bigger picture is brighter with both the racing and golfing services faring much better as a collective, I can’t help but feel disappointed.  I’m very much looking forward to a bit of a sporting reboot come January.

Until then though, I’m resolutely plodding on.

Although there hasn’t been much to shout about this past week, what little there has been has come from Sports Service 1, which enjoyed a good Saturday of darting action at the Players’ Championship Finals.  Three winning bets from four provided a good return.  Now just a couple of points down from the year’s previous high water mark, I’m hoping a good World Championships over Christmas will end the year on a high.

Now for the bad news, and The Poacher has really suffered these past couple of weeks.  A decent Sunday has hopefully stopped the rot but unable to catch a break with red cards and late goals going in at the wrong end has resulted in the service reaching its deepest drawdown for 2021 to date.  I have every confidence the downward trend will reverse.

And another disappointing week for Scottish Football Income Booster.  Three bets in the Premiership north of the border, and three losers.  Their deepest drawdown for the year has gotten three points worse as a result.

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 51.75pts, +7.022pts, roi 13.56%, roc 23.4%, High: 9.132pts, CDD: -2.11pts, Max DD: -4.185pts.

Sports Service 2 (40): Staked 64pts, -4.934pts, roi -7.7%, roc -12.33%, High 0pts, CDD: -4.934pts, Max DD: -6.734pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 162pts, -24.507pts, roi -15.12%, roc -24.5%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -28.901pts, Max DD: -28.901pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 399pts, +13.381pts, roi 3.35%, roc 33.45%, High: 24.07pts, CDD: -10.689pts, Max DD: -10.689pts

Sports Totals: ROI 1.19%, ROC 4.41%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

Now don’t get me wrong, I’ve had my fair share of good luck with my golf betting this year, and some poor soul testing positive for Covid when leading during he final round and subsequently having to withdraw leaving my chap out in front to pick up the spoils, has been the pinnacle of that good fortune.  But this weekend’s sport was frustrating.

There was no PGA Tour event so we were down to the “European” Tour competition over in South Africa.  A combination of bad weather and the announcement of travel restrictions due to the new Covid variant meant that the tournament was abandoned part way through the third round.  The Tour rules dictate that two complete rounds are enough to declare a winner, and so the third round scores were eliminated and the standings at the half way stage taken to dictate who won and who placed.

This all left me with one in the frame, a 66/1 shot from Golf Insider who was thus deemed to have “finished” second.  Other than that, not one player finished high enough for a return.  It felt a bit like having a sizeable antepost bet at big odds going off as favourite on the day, only to see it fall at the first.  There was no-one and nothing to blame, but it all just felt completely unsatisfactory.

Coral actually refunded my bet on one WGV tipped golfer I’d backed, but that was the only one.  Seems that most bookies aren’t too generous in their rules declaring what does and doesn’t make up a completed tournament.  The bookies not being generous?  Who’d have thunk?

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 344pts, -44.632pts, roi -12.97%, roc -22.31%, High 14.35pts, CDD: -58.982pts, Max DD: -91.044pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 780.5pts, +322.601pts, roi 41.33%, roc 64.52%, High +353.136pts, CDD: -30.535pts, Max DD: -115.77pts

PGA Profit Europe (500): Staked 150.5pts, -38.473pts, roi -25.56%, roc -7.69%, High 75.027pts, CDD: -113.5pts, Max DD: -113.5pts

Weekly Golf Value (2,000): 5,898pts, +1,811.44pts, roi 30.71%, roc 90.57%, High 2,064.97pts, CDD: -253.13pts, Max DD: -461.8pts.

Totals Golf: ROI 22.74%, ROC 53.91%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

Racing Service 1 could do with something to just spark into life and by doing do, get this season up and running.  This past Saturday was, according to A., the first time he had felt able to really “attack” the day’s racing from a betting point of view.  Sadly this didn’t result in a positive return, but it’s only a matter of time.  On A.’s behalf, I would like to ask the relevant powers for some consistent weather and ground, and markets that can stand a bet…because when these factors align for any length of time, I know one thing is for sure, and that is that RS1 will deliver.

A more promising week for Precision Value with a good 6 point or so profit.  Still in negative figures for the year to date (just) and still a long way behind the year’s high point (about 57 points) but the slump has flattened out recently and now this good week hopefully signals the start of the bounce back.

Nice to see Northern Monkey having a decent enough weekend too.  Another to have lost a fair few points recently, it was nice to see a couple of things go our way.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 450pts, +57.996pts, roi 12.88%, roc 57.99%, High: 67.66pts, CDD: -9.664pts, Max DD: -25.65pts.

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 544.725pts, +165.154pts, roi 30.31%, roc 165.15%, High: 200.604pts, CDD: -35.45pts, Max DD: -40.22pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 911pts, -2.114pts, roi -0.23%, roc -1.05%, High: 55.986pts, CDD: -58.1pts, Max DD: -66.433pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 35pts, +0.812pts, roi 2.32%, roc 1.62%, High: 12.312pts, CDD: -11.5pts, Max DD: -11.5pts.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

I tweeted last night that I was coming to the conclusion that with a seeming proliferation of golf tipsters and services now providing some seriously sexy ROI figures, that 2022 will more than likely see me extend my golf betting portfolio.

It’s not just the results that have been impressive this year that is leading me down this path, I actually enjoy betting on golf.  I enjoy watching it on a Sunday evening – or at least I do until it gets to a certain time and I remember that I need to be up for work in the morning, and actually having another spiced rum is probably not the best idea!  But you get the point.  To a large extent, golf betting has given me a bit of pzazz.   A bit of fun.

Now I know that betting to make money is not about thrill seeking and frivolity.  It’s about bottom line, I get that.  But as thoughts turn to 2022 and what I’m going to bet on, I am beginning to think that my betting needs more and more to be a lifestyle choice, if that makes sense?  What I mean by that is that I think I’ve reached the point where I feel I want to really combine making a profit with enjoyment.  Part of that enjoyment is the avoidance of struggling to get on and worrying about missed prices.  Part is investing in the outcome of sports and events I actually enjoy.

With that in mind, I’ve been pondering the sports portfolio.  I think in all likelihood I may see this cut in size, although there are one or two services I’ve got my eyes on that would involve betting on something I really enjoy watching.  Interestingly, one such service is free to follow, and run by a tipster I trust as I currently follow another of his other (better known at this stage) services.

Anyway, that’s all for puzzling over through the course of the next few weeks, with a view to starting in January.  Until then, let’s get through the Christmas period.  It’s not long now you know!

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 45.75pts, +5.072pts, roi 11.08%, roc 16.9%, High: 9.132pts, CDD: -4.06pts, Max DD: -4.185pts.

Sports Service 2 (40): Staked 64pts, -4.934pts, roi -7.7%, roc -12.33%, High 0pts, CDD: -4.934pts, Max DD: -6.734pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 159pts, -21.507pts, roi -13.52%, roc -21.5%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -25.901pts, Max DD: -25.901pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 381pts, +16.858pts, roi 4.42%, roc 42.14%, High: 24.07pts, CDD: -7.212pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Totals: ROI 1.66%, ROC 5.87%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

I’ve really enjoyed my golf betting this year.  I feel like I’ve got into it more, and as we approach the end of 2021 thoughts inevitably start to wander towards plans for 2022.  At this moment in time, I’m thinking that I will likely up my golf betting involvement next year.

One reason for this is that from the privileged position of writing reviews for the Smart Betting Club, I get to see exactly what tipsters and services are emerging.  These past weeks I’ve penned a new review for each of another two golfing services that clearly have huge potential (the second of these will be out shortly), and my experience this year in terms of ease of getting on, how generally speaking the odds hold up well, and how straightforward it is to use the exchanges with no real detriment to the bottom line…well, why wouldn’t I want to expand?

As for this week, not much by way of returns.  Weekly Golf Value got three to place across the two tournaments, and PGA Profit found one to place in the States, but all told it wasn’t enough to avoid a losing week.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 339pts, -46.732pts, roi -13.78%, roc -23.36%, High 14.35pts, CDD: -61.082pts, Max DD: -91.044pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 780.5pts, +322.601pts, roi 41.33%, roc 64.52%, High +353.136pts, CDD: -30.535pts, Max DD: -115.77pts

PGA Profit Europe (500): Staked 134.5pts, -22.473pts, roi -16.7%, roc -4.49%, High 75.027pts, CDD: -97.5pts, Max DD: -97.5pts

Weekly Golf Value (2,000): 5,815pts, +1,886.84pts, roi 32.44%, roc 94.34%, High 2,064.97pts, CDD: -178.13pts, Max DD: -461.8pts.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

With the overall ROI for the racing services this year standing at a sliver under 15%, it feels a little daft to be talking of recoveries, but I do wonder if we are just seeing Performance Value’s drawdown level out and a recovery get underway.

It’s a bold statement to say that the recovery has definitely gotten going when last week’s figures show a profit of a mere half point, but a decent day yesterday and Monday (figures not included in this post’s update) which follow a week to ten days of not dropping lower than the previous deepest drawdown point have got me all optimistic.

My thinking is that for a service like Performance Value, when a nasty spell hits it probably feels worse than it might because we’re generally backing horses towards the front of the market.  If we’re backing 10/1+ shots every time, then we brace ourselves for losing runs.  In fact, I’d go as far as to say we psychologically prepare ourselves by accepting that the drawdowns are inevitable and unavoidable.  Betting at shorter prices though?  These beggars should be winning, no?  So when the equally inevitable losing spell comes, perhaps we find it tougher to deal with?

I don’t know.  But what I do know is that I suddenly feel optimistic that we’ve seen the worst of this PV drawdown.  Time will tell of course.  Let’s see what I’m writing next week.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 443pts, +59.271pts, roi 13.37%, roc 59.27%, High: 67.66pts, CDD: -8.389pts, Max DD: -25.65pts.

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 539.725pts, +161.721pts, roi 29.96%, roc 161.72%, High: 200.604pts, CDD: -38.883pts, Max DD: -40.22pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 893pts, -8.614pts, roi -0.96%, roc -4.3%, High: 55.986pts, CDD: -64.6pts, Max DD: -66.433pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 32.5pts, +3.312pts, roi 10.19%, roc 6.62%, High: 12.312pts, CDD: -9pts, Max DD: -8pts.

Racing Totals: ROI 14.94%, ROC 55.82%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

It very much feels like a plod at the moment when it comes to the sports tipsters.  We’re not galloping or charging.  Nor are we slumping or falling.  We’re very definitely plodding.

Overall, the last week has seen the P&L line more or less stay where it has been for what feels like ages.

A bit of action for Sports Service 1 to get stuck into but we’ve so far come out the wrong side of the profit and loss line, and the same can be said for The Poacher which of course, has been starved of any top level football to get stuck into during the most recent, and seemingly interminable, interlull.  I hate international football with a passion, until we get to the actual Finals tournaments at least.  Watching qualifying matches for England against the likes of San Marino?  No thanks.  I’ll give it a miss.  Life’s too short.

The bit of profit we got to counter the small SS1 and The Poacher losses came from Scottish Football Income Booster.  It wasn’t a spectacular weekend by any means, but one that produced a couple of points of profit and that’ll do me.

We plod on to next week…

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 43.75pts, +4.947pts, roi 11.3%, roc 16.49%, High: 9.132pts, CDD: -4.185pts, Max DD: -4.185pts.

Premium Boxing Tips (40): Staked 64pts, -4.934pts, roi -7.7%, roc -12.33%, High 0pts, CDD: -4.934pts, Max DD: -6.734pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 152pts, -18.807pts, roi -12.37%, roc -18.8%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -23.201pts, Max DD: -25.351pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 372pts, +20.154pts, roi 5.41%, roc 50.38%, High: 24.07pts, CDD: -3.916pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Totals: ROI 2.48%, ROC 8.52%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

Oh, heck!

How much of a return did I get from this week’s golf betting?  Not. A. Jot.  Nothing.  Nada.  Niente.  Absolutely b*$%er all!

It had to happen at some point, and this was the week it did.  This is the ying I guess, to what has been golf betting’s yang this year.  There were plenty of near misses.  Luke List double bogeying the last hole of the tournament to drop from Tied 4th to Tied 9th (with eight places the terms) kinda summed it all up.  I mean, had he even just bogeyed the last it would have given a fairly decent return.  But oh, no.

So I shan’t dwell.  No point.  Will simply brush myself down, and go again this week coming.

There’s not much more to say than that.  So I won’t.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 330pts, -37.732pts, roi -11.43%, roc -18.86%, High 14.35pts, CDD: -52.082pts, Max DD: -91.044pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 760.5pts, +332.101pts, roi 43.66%, roc 66.42%, High +353.136pts, CDD: -21.035pts, Max DD: -115.77pts

PGA Profit Europe (500): Staked 120.5pts, -8.473pts, roi -7.03%, roc -1.69%, High 75.027pts, CDD: -83.5pts, Max DD: -83.5pts

Weekly Golf Value (2,000): 5,693pts, +1,911.42pts, roi 33.57%, roc 95.57%, High 2,064.97pts, CDD: -153.55pts, Max DD: -461.8pts.

Golf Totals: ROI 26.02%, ROC 59.25%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

The racing portfolio has extended its deepest drawdown for 2021 to date and I can tell the Betting Gods that this is now getting a wee bit boring.  It’s not as if we’re losing money hand over fist in some vicious tailspin.  It’s just a steady drip, drip of losses that has been served up over the last few weeks, and it’s dull!  Seriously you pesky controllers of betting fate you, liven it up a bit!   Let’s have some fireworks.  Let’s go toe to toe.  You.  And.  Me.

It was the Breeders’ Cup Stateside last week, but nothing doing there.  Precision Value arrested their slump with a great start to the week, and then gave most of it back to finish more or less, even.  Boring.  Bet Alchemist with a winner at the weekend…but overall finishing more or less even.  Boring.  Only Northern Monkey is showing any devotion to the cause of livening things up a bit, but perhaps better if it would do so with profit and not losses.

Losses?  Boring!

It was even a quiet introduction to the season for Racing Service 1 after the previous week’s false start.

Perhaps I shouldn’t complain.  Often boring is good when it comes to betting.  But Betting Gods…throw me a bone, eh?

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 431pts, +59.626pts, roi 13.83%, roc 59.62%, High: 67.66pts, CDD: -8.034pts, Max DD: -25.65pts.

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 531.1pts, +160.384pts, roi 30.19%, roc 160.38%, High: 200.604pts, CDD: -40.22pts, Max DD: -40.22pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 866pts, -9.114pts, roi -1.05%, roc -4.55%, High: 55.986pts, CDD: -65.1pts, Max DD: -66.433pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 30.5pts, +5.312pts, roi 17.41%, roc 10.62%, High: 12.312pts, CDD: -7pts, Max DD: -8pts.

Racing Totals: ROI 15.52%, ROC 56.51%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

“I was disappointed not to get anything out of tonight’s bet and it really has been a frustrating weekend.” – The Poacher, this morning.

I think there’s a lot to be said for being your own harshest critic, generally speaking anyway.  I guess if you want to be good at something, and to continually look to improve, then you need to be able to self-analyze effectively.  I have always got the impression from The Poacher, since starting to follow his betting advice this year, that this is something he does a lot.  I may be wrong, but it is clear he wants to do well for his clients and my guess is that examining himself, his own methods and performance is something he does a fair bit.

But even the very best tipsters, and tipping services, have to accept that once they’ve put out their advice, there is literally nothing they can do to affect results.  At that point, sport being what it is, they and everyone else is in the lap of the gods.  And I can tell you something.  Those gods can be right mean old beggars at times.

I understand The Poacher’s frustration.  When a team you’ve backed to win is two goals up going into injury time, you kinda expect to be taking a virtual walk to the pay out window.  Not with Atletico Madrid on Sunday afternoon though.  Oh, no!  Goals in the 92nd and 96th minutes stopped that walk dead in its tracks.

So yes, I guess in some ways it has been a frustrating weekend.  But we must be careful of not falling victim to what  believe is known as Outcome Bias.  Outcome Bias is a thing that makes us fall into the trap of judging our process purely on the result (or outcome).  In other words, The Poacher no doubt put a lot of work in before deciding Atletico Madrid represented a good value bet.  That events unfolded that were a. very unlikely to occur, and b. were completely out of his control, does not make his advice to back Madrid a bad bet.  If the process is correct, then over time, the results will follow.

We need to remember this as bettors.  Process, process, process.  Let’s not worry about individual bet outcomes.  After all, we have no control over them.  And what’s the point of worrying over things we have no control over?

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 38.75pts, +6.332pts, roi 16.34%, roc 21.1%, High: 9.132pts, CDD: -2.8pts, Max DD: -3.5pts.

Sports Service 2 (40): Staked 64pts, -4.934pts, roi -7.7%, roc -12.33%, High 0pts, CDD: -4.934pts, Max DD: -6.734pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 147pts, -20.957pts, roi -14.25%, roc -20.95%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -25.351pts, Max DD: -25.351pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 365pts, +21.411pts, roi 5.86%, roc 53.52%, High: 24.07pts, CDD: -2.659pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Totals: ROI 2.93%, ROC 9.8%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown