I thought I had escaped.  But no.  The Gambling Gods don’t allow for escapes.  They may lull you into believing that you are, and then close the net around you once more to make any thoughts of escaping seem fanciful in the extreme.  They let you reach the train station in small town Germany, dressed in civilian clothes and merging into the background, but then a crafty “Hello” in English, and an understandable but instant “Hello” back, and before you know it you’re being ruthlessly gunned down.  And don’t even get me started on stealing a motorbike and after some valiant attempts at escape, riding it headlong into a load of barbed wire…

My stealing of the motorbike took the form of Keita Nakajima, one of four Weekly Golf Value players put up across the two golf tournaments last week that I didn’t back.  I couldn’t get value prices on them at any of the books I can still use.  He was level at the top of the leaderboard in the Club House, but was pipped when Richard Mansell birdied the last to claim the victory.  Nakajima finished second, and I breathed a sigh of relief.

And then came the barbed wire fence.

Viktor Hovland, another of the four unbacked golfers, took advantage of Justin Thomas fannying around when clear at the top to cliam the US event in the evening by a stroke.  WGV, to its immense credit, had Hovland to a sizeable stake at a big price (70/1).  I had nothing.

One golfer to place for me across the two tournaments.  It could have been so much better.  But them’s the breaks, I guess.

Elsewhere and there’s not been any immediate bounce back this time from the disaster that was the previous weekend for WinnerOdds Football.  That Saturday has left a serious dint on the figures, both for the month and year to date.  It very much feels I’m in recovery mode.  How long for?  Let’s see.

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 708pts, +38.23pts, ROI 5.39%, ROC 1.9%, Drawdown -184.2pts, Max DD -184.2pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 4,580pts, +270.75pts, ROI 5.9%, ROC 13.5%, Drawdown -16.25pts, Max DD -254pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,340pts, -40.58pts, ROI -3%, ROC -2%, Drawdown -200pts, Max DD -266.42pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 5,908pts, -136.82pts, ROI -2.3%, ROC -6.8%, Drawdown -468.58pts, Max DD -495.34pts

TOTAL: Staked 12,538pts, +112.58pts, ROI 0.89%, ROC 1.4%, Drawdown -276.5pts, Max DD -402.35pts

Sadly we haven’t had a repeat of the rapid and ridiculously strong bounce back from last weekend’s tail of woe that we saw from the woe of three weeks ago.  There’s been a lot of woe, a bit of Wheeeh! and then a lot of woe again.  I’ve decided we need more Wheeeh! in our lives.  A life spent Wheeehing! would be a fine life indeed.

A small profit has been made since Monday, but nowhere near enough to make the year to date figures below look like anything other than what they are.  I look at the figures and all I see at this moment in time is an awful lot of bets struck for very little reward.

Look, it goes like that sometimes.  That’s why they call it a “grind”.

Let’s start with some positive news and the figures so far for eSoccer Edge are looking fine indeed.  I’ve been trialling this new service for a fair few weeks now and to have already amassed bank growth of 44% already is pretty amazing,  Funnily enough, this week hasn’t been the best either, and yet my overall ROI now reads 6.83%, almost bang on the 7% long term aim (although I believe with a newish variable staking approach that may/should rise a little).  I have been flat staking, and not getting on anywhere near the maximum number of bets I could if I had more time.  Perhaps I’ve ridden on the positive side of variance a little with this, managing to coincide the bets I’ve struck with more winners than losers and had I taken different bets my figures wouldn’t be so impressive.  To be honest, this is essentially an observation only and not some kind of relevant point – the fact is over the long term that variance will even out but the ROI should remain broadly the same.  I can see no reason why it wouldn’t.

It’s been a very quiet week bet wise for WinnerOdds Football, I’m assuming because so many leagues have shut down for the tiresome international break.  Actually, that’s not fair.  Personally, I CANNOT WAIT for England’s match against the mighty Albania tonight.  It’s a true match for the ages, as England’s brave boys take on the team that most who know anything about football recognise as being the best international team since Pele’s 1970 Brazil.  For Pele, Rivelino, Tostao and Gerson, read Armando Broja, Bajrami, erm…and err…Brutti.

One thing to look out for is a full, in depth review coming up of The Value Machine Exchange Profit service I’ve been following within these posts.  With all the data to hand it’s been fascinating this week putting in some prep for writing up the review.  What’s clear to me is that the most recent months have been (and here comes that word again) a bit of a “grind”, but in the context of the full data set, this is a service to be very excited about.  You SBC members will be able to read much more soon, and if you’re reading this and you’re not a member, well frankly, why aren’t you?!?  Seriously, sort your life out!

Enough from me.  I’m off to start building up to the big match tonight.  COME ON TUCHEL AND HIS BOYS!!!!!

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 604pts, +87.43pts, ROI 14.4%, ROC 4.3%, Drawdown -135pts, Max DD -135pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 4,200pts, +180pts, ROI 4.2%, ROC 9%, Drawdown -107pts, Max DD -254pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,080pts, -27.7pts, ROI -2.5%, ROC -1.1%, Drawdown -187.12pts, Max DD -266.42pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 4,870pts, -163.58pts, ROI -3.3%, ROC -5.4%, Drawdown -495.34pts, Max DD -495.34pts

TOTAL: Staked 10,754pts, +57.15pts, ROI 0.53%, ROC 0.6%, Drawdown -331.93pts, Max DD -402.35pts

A couple of weeks ago I talked about a dreadful Saturday from WinnerOdds Football that I admitted, despite however many years I’ve been in this game, I found hard to deal with.  This Saturday, the same service had for me, a much worse day.  Two weeks ago, the bounce back was almost immediate with a decent Sunday restoring some confidence, and the thanks to a huge drifter for the version of The Value Machine I use, I was sitting back on a profit high less than half a week later.  Sunday this time, saw no bounce back, and in fact already heavy losses were exacerbated by TVM having 20 consecutive losers Friday through to Sunday and a blank week for me using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker.

I guess losing confidence in something you’re doing when you’ve done it successfully for years is, on the face of it, a bit daft.  But I’d liken it to a top notch centre forward with a history of banging in goals left, right and centre over many seasons suddenly doing everything but score.  It doesn’t matter how experienced or successful you’ve been, confidence can always be knocked.

It got me thinking and I thought what I’d do is provide some unofficial ‘Confidence Ratings’ for each of the services I’m following right now.  Marked out of five, these are a reflection of what I am feeling right now.  They could easily change very, very quickly.

eSoccerEdge: 3.5

For a service that has produced 42.1% bank growth since mid-January, and which was the only bright spot of the weekend just gone, you’d perhaps expect this to be higher.  The only reason it isn’t is that it is so (relatively) new to me.  Based on what it’s done so far it should be a nailed on 5/5, but I still feel I’m getting used to it.  A new, variable staking system has been introduced which should increase the ROI further, but until I’ve got more info in terms of how that looks like and potential implications on the size of betting bank, I’m sticking to level stakes.  That’s why I’m at 3.5 – HUGE potential, just not 100% set yet on how to realise it.  But that will come.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker: 5

Been using it or it’s derivative Weekly Golf Value for years, and with huge success.  Every faith and confidence behind the people that run it.  Settling on a 5/5 is a no-brainer despite the inevitable long losing runs golf betting brings at times.

The Value Machine: 2.5

To emphasise – this is how I’m feeling, as Oasis once said, right here right now.  20 consecutive losing bets.  A pattern so far this year of getting to break even before hitting another draw down has happened again.  It’s difficult on a grey Monday morning to be feeling overjoyed about it.  But…and it is a big but…the people behind it are fantastic at what they do, have experience in bucket loads, and the track record is strong.  A decent week and the rating could easily be 4 by Friday!

WinnerOdds Football: 1.5

Do I believe WinnerOdds Footie is a top, top service? Yes.

Do I believe that WO Footie has suddenly lost its edge? No.

Am my feelings (and therefore rating) being assessed on just a couple of recent weekend’s bad results?  Yes, and no.

Here’s the thing.  I know this service makes good money for it’s customers.  I know it’s run by people I have huge respect for.  But…it’s not just recent results that is making my confidence levels decline.  Since starting with it, I’ve struck 2,402 bets at an average of 7.85/day.  My ROI figure is 1.3%.

That’s not a level of return that can justify the work put in.  It just isn’t.  And I know that other users will have made a strong return in the same time period, and some will have made less.  But frankly, I don’t care about them.  I care about spending a lot of time and effort, for what is a very low rate of return.

I have to be careful to caveat that my stakes last year changed as I got a feel for the service (as is the case for every service I begin to follow), and since January the bank has been larger than it was at any time in 2024. The knock on impact is that the losing runs are going to hit harder right now than they would have done last year, and as a result the ROI will be lowered.  But the difference in staking really hasn’t been that large.  Still, when encountering a winning run, the resultant profit line will rise more sharply so it needs time to right itself.

But…2,402 bets for 1.3% ROI.  It would take a pretty special person (or maybe a psychopath) not to feel a little down about that.

I’ve got to run right now.  I’ll stick, the figures up in my next post.  Fingers crossed any Confidence Ratings will look a little better in a couple of days time.

This weekend was truly a weekend of two halves.  All three services with bets on Saturday produced a loss.  All four on the Sunday a profit.  All told, we came up ahead.  Enough to push the month to date and the year to date balance to a new high.

We had another Weekly Golf Value winner last night in Russell Henley (28/1), who snatched victory from what looked like, if not certain, probable defeat late in the final round. It was a pretty tough watch actually, but in the end Henley got the job done and secured a golfing profit for the week.  WGV is on a fine run of form!

Henley and a couple of others that placed has pushed golf betting to a new profit high for 2025, but this week was one in which my using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to identify my own bets in addition to those from WGV didn’t pay off.  All it did was provide a number of more bets that didn’t provide a return, apart from one who had his placed returns split several times over as he finished joint 6th with about five others!  Still, these are the swings and roundabouts associated with my approach.  I’m sacrificing some level of ROI for, hopefully, a touch more stability.  And believe me, I’m not quibbling about an ROI of 38%, which is what I have right now.

A half decent weekend for WinnerOdds Football has meant that I’m sitting on a new profit high for March for the service, albeit I still have a fair bit of the current drawdown to reclaim before I can push on again.

And finally in the run up to Cheltenham, The Value Machine has had a quietly very effective week.  Not too many bets each day getting the price matched to Betfair SP, but a regular flow and enough to start accumulating a very decent level of profit (37.95% ROI).  Regular readers will know that when similar has happened this year, a drawdown will make it a case of one step forward and one step backwards.  This past week has felt like two steps forward, so let’s see what happens from here.

For all of you participating, best of Cheltenham luck to you.

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 469pts, +222.43pts, ROI 47.4%, ROC 11.1%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 1,620pts, -155.25pts, ROI -9.5%, ROC -7.7%, Drawdown -155.25pts, Max DD -155.25pts

The Value Machine: Staked 420pts, +159.42pts, ROI 37.9%, ROC 10.6%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -33.41pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 2,696pts, +259.1pts, ROI 9.6%, ROC 8.6%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -60pts

TOTAL: Staked 5,205pts, +485.7pts, ROI 9.3%, ROC 5.7%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -161.11pts

Not too much to report for this week.  A very small profit notched, but really nothing of any significance, and as is the case most weeks, the weekend will have the biggest influence on how we’re performing.

A quick summary today, then.

After the fairly disastrous end to last month, WinnerOdds Football has launched a strong recovery and has gained almost 7% bank growth since Monday.  The weekend’s action awaits and if it can reach just average performance levels then that horrible Saturday a couple of weeks ago will be forgotten.

Nice to see The Value Machine getting the month off to a good start too, running as it is at 29.5% ROI, albeit from a small sample of bets.  The returns have equated to bank growth of 6.1%, which again, is a good rate.  I’ll be looking to raise stakes if I can with this service next month so a strong March will be most welcome (he says, stating the bleeding obvious).

One service I have already raised stakes for this month after the initial period of getting used to the service and how it works, is eSoccer Edge.  My “getting to know you” period covering late January and February has been an…how shall I put it?…interesting experience.  After a sharp drawdown as a consequence of new dynamics hitting the games being played in January, February was a fantastic time.  I’d upped my stakes slightly at the start of Feb and was richly rewarded with an ROI of 13.8% and a ridiculous bank growth figure of just over 35%.

It should be noted that the ROI figure was way above long term expectations and I’m certainly not expecting double digit every month (6-7% seems to be a reasonable expectation based on long term history) but I was very happy to increase my “intermediate” staking level employed through February to “full time” level from the beginning of March.  Naturally, since doing this, I’ve seen a (small) loss.  I think that’s what is called Sod’s Law.

Exciting times though, and clearly the service is being tweaked in terms of the way it is run to protect the edge whilst maximising potential for people to sign up, providing levels of stake per bet based on perceived levels of expected value, etc.

As for the golf, well there was a fair bit of value available across the four tournaments (yes, four!) being played this week.  Personally, I’ve covered just the three as for reasons previously explained I’ve decided to leave the LIV Tour alone this year, but even so staking across the three has added up to a significant amount.  Just one round played as I write this post, and a number of players have got off to a decent enough start, but clearly very early days.  Let’s see what the fall out is on Sunday evening.

Have a good weekend, all.

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 133pts, +158.75pts, ROI 119.36%, ROC 10.58%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 1,020pts, -85.5pts, ROI -8.3%, ROC -4.2%, Drawdown -85.5pts, Max DD -85.5pts

The Value Machine: Staked 310pts, +91.71pts, ROI 29.5%, ROC 6.1%, Drawdown -20pts, Max DD -20pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 1,328pts, +206.93pts, ROI 15.5%, ROC 6.8%, Drawdown -11pts, Max DD -60pts

TOTAL: Staked 2,791pts, +371.89pts, ROI 13.3%, ROC 4.37%, Drawdown -55.5pts, Max DD -55.5pts

I’ve been a bit of a burk.  Managed to overwrite February’s results with March’s to date.  Doh!

So, needing to get this post written early this morning as I won’t have a chance later, you’re going to have to bear with me for the February monthly review.  I’ll do that later this week, although to be honest in the bigger picture, there is not a lot to report.  From memory, I ended up in profit, but with an ROI of less than 1%.  An awful lot of bets struck to stand still, and February did feel like a month largely spent wading in treacle.

March is seeing a slimline portfolio in action.  As I’ve mentioned recently, circumstances have changed and time is now my most precious commodity.  I’ve relied on my lad getting a lot of bets on but his situation is changing too over the next few months which means he can’t do anywhere near so much moving forward.  Certainly not until the summer.  The Bet Diary is very much designed to show betting in real life…and this is it!

So taking time to think about how to progress when I was on holiday the other week was important.  My thoughts were centred around trying to find an answer as to how I can get as many bets down as possible, but very quickly.

My lad is still going to be able to get the golf bets down.  Half an hour a week is fine, so all good there.

eSoccerEdge is high turnover, but very quick and easy to strike the bets, and most significantly for my purpose, you can just dip in and out when suits.  Bets are churned out through the day, and I don’t get down anywhere near the total of bets generated, and yet can still maintain a very healthy level of turnover.  The only drawback is that I’m still relatively new to it.  I’ve loved what I’ve seen so far, and it was by far and away my most profitable service last month, but I usually build stakes very slowly with any service I’m relatively new to.  Now I need to up stakes to compensate for fewer overall bets, which to my very risk-averse approach, puts me just ever so slightly out of my comfort zone.  However, the fact I can back a good number of selections at whatever time in the morning/afternoon/evening that I can, is a massive plus point, so out of my comfort zone I go.

The Value Machine is a perfect set up for me.  I just need it to really start producing the goods.  As I’ve already stated within these pages, I messed up January myself.  What really should have been a small profit on the month was for me, a loss.  It goes back to building up stakes (and if I’m honest, the issue of being  prevented from depositing the necessary funds by restrictive affordability limitations) as I grow more familiar and comfortable with a service.  February produced a tiny loss (it was essentially break even) but was a month rescued by the huge drifter I wrote about last week, with a winner going from the advised price of 6.5 to 26.  I still can’t get my stakes quite to where I want them.  A decent month this month though should mean I can up bet size by April.

Where TVM fits in so well is that I can, during the week anyway, just quickly stick bets on at Betfair SP, setting a minimum acceptable price.  There’s no thought required.  Any bets that come through in the morning I can quickly get down in a bunch at lunchtime.  Those that come through in the afternoon, it takes less than a minute to get the money down.  And turnover is still high.

Finally, WinnerOdds Football.  This is the most difficult but by using ten minute time windows first thing in the morning, lunchtime and early and then late evening, such are the number of bets that come through that again, I can maximize my use of time.  I can retain strong levels of turnover, whilst not taking up much time at all.

And there we have it.  Is it the perfect scenario?  No.  I’d much rather just be carrying on as normal.  But that – for the next little while at least – isn’t possible.  So compromise, and flexibility, is a must.  Let’s see where it gets us.

Meanwhile, a good start to the month with the weekend producing some strong profit, including a lovely Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value winner in Joe Highsmith, on whom I got 110/1!  Towards the end, I had Highsmith, another WGV pick in Ben Griffin (45/1), and from the Tracker, Jacob Bridgeman (100/1) all vying for the lead with only a couple of holes to play.  Happy days!  Sadly, success not replicated in the DPWT event, for which I suffered a total blank.  Good profit overall though, taking the 2025 profit to a new high.

A decent weekend for WinnerOdds Football too, as it looks to claw back the heavy losses suffered the previous weekend.  Much more like it this week.

So March has got off to a decent start.  Let’s hope the new, slimline, temporary portfolio continues to do the business.

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 133pts, +158.75pts, ROI 119.36%, ROC 10.58%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 360pts, -41pts, ROI -11.3%, ROC -2%, Drawdown -41pts, Max DD -41pts

The Value Machine: Staked 150pts, +43.13pts, ROI 28.7%, ROC 2.8%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 1,125pts, +138.21pts, ROI 12.2%, ROC 4.6%, Drawdown -60pts, Max DD -60pts

TOTAL: Staked 1,768pts, +299.09pts, ROI 16.9%, ROC 3.5%, Drawdown -51.2pts, Max DD -51.2pts

For context, if you haven’t read the previous Bet Diary post, go read it now and come back.

For those of you that have read Monday’s missive, well, what can I say?  What a ridiculous, crazy, sometimes infuriating, often downright daft…game this is we play.

Since Saturday’s absolute disaster show, which basically lost all the profit made this year to date, come Tuesday night I was sitting on a profit high for 2025.  And it was all down to just one bet.

On Monday I alluded to the fact that we are going to see some changes implemented in what I’m betting on and how, the result of changing work circumstances for myself and my son’s own situation.  Not changes I want to make necessarily, but if any of you have read the Bet Diary for a length of time, you’ll know it reflects real life.  That’s the point of it, to be honest.  This is betting in the real world where things happen.  I’m not a full time bettor.  If I was, betting itself would be a bit easier.  But I’m not, and so it isn’t.

I had intended this post to detail what those changes are, but that is going to have to wait, in light of that one bet on Tuesday afternoon that I want to concentrate this post on instead!

It’s fair to say that The Value Machine hadn’t quite produced the goods for me yet, in 2025.  I use only the Exchanges for following this service, and my strategy to date has largely been to look to get my stakes into the market – if at least the minimum advised price is available – at some point in the last three minutes in the build up to the race.  For any bets in any races that I know I’m not going to be sitting at my laptop during that timeframe, I’d just stick in my stake at Betfair SP, setting the minimum odds acceptable at the advised TVM price advised.

One fundamental change I’m making moving forward is that all TVM bets, I’ll be using Betfair SP for.  It means that getting the bets on will take minimal time.  I started doing that this week.

On Tuesday, a horse called SeanOG was tipped up in a small race at Catterick.  The advised TVM price was 6.5.

Come Tuesday evening, I got back from the cricket coaching I do, logged into my Betfair account and immediately clocked that the balance had gone up.  A lot.

First thought was what the hell has happened here?

What had happened was that SeanOG had won…at a Betfair SP of 26!  I mean, when does that ever happen.  How often does a horse drift like that, and then not run like it had only three good legs and had double cod and chips for lunch?

But no.  This time, the Sporting Life site tells us that Sean OG “came clear before the last” and “stayed on strongly” to win by three and a half lengths.

There’s been a very small dip across Wednesday and Thursday, but from being (not quite) in despair on Saturday night to this on the Tuesday, and the impact that each day had had on the P&L…what we do is madness.  Isn’t it?

Have a great weekend, folks.

Febuary 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 795.64pts, -278.32pts, ROI -34.9%, ROC -18.5%, Drawdown -278.32pts, Max DD -312.94pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 428pts, -115.3pts, ROI -26.9%, ROC -7.6%, Drawdown -115.3pts, Max DD -136.3pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 4,320pts, +611.62pts, ROI 14.1%, ROC 40.7%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -97.12pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 61.5pts, -61.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -4.1%, Drawdown -61.5pts, Max DD -61.5pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,650pts, +30.85pts, ROI 1.8%, ROC 2%, Drawdown -80pts, Max DD -195.19pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 5,179pts, -58.14pts, ROI -1.1%, ROC -1.9%, Drawdown -317.24pts, Max DD -393.85pts

TOTAL: Staked 12,488.01pts, +101.46pts, ROI 0.8%, ROC 1.1%, Drawdown -99.2pts, Max DD -434.05pts

Saturday was an absolute disaster.  Do you ever have one of those days when absolutely nothing goes the right way?  And it doesn’t have to be limited to your betting.

I enjoyed a week away last year down on the South Devon coast, but after a drive home on Friday lasting over six and a half hours due to weather, accidents, and usual Friday afternoon chaos on the M6, I was feeling almost like I was jet lagged when I woke up on Saturday morning.  And the day went downhill from there.

It was an interesting experience.  I like to feel that through experience, I handle losing runs fairly well.  I’m pretty sanguine about them nowadays.  To be honest, it’s when you go through the weeks of grind without making any progress that I find more taxing psychologically, even if I am fully aware it’s all part of the game.  But come Saturday evening, I was feeling pretty down about it all.

Let’s start a summary of the last week though with the exceptionally good, and that has been eSoccer Edge.  Its form has been outstanding, and when I tell you that for just this month to date, it’s generated bank growth for me of 34.5%! Every day of the last week has generated a profit.  Not a huge amount each day, but it’s amazing how quickly a regular, small but solid profit adds up.  There’s no doubt it’s currently on a hot streak, with my ROI for February standing at 13.3%, which is way above long term expectation.  So the pace will have to slow, but when I remember that spell last month that saw a pretty sharp drawdown as a consequence of an abrupt change in the dynamics of the markets, to see where I’m at now with it is very impressive.

Now let’s turn to the disastrous.

WinnerOdds Football had a nightmare on Saturday for me.  Sitting on a very healthy profit for the year on Friday night, by Saturday night all that profit, and some, had gone. And you know what, that came as a bit of a blow.   Not so much the amount of money lost.  More the fact that five weeks of striking plenty of bets and steadily accumulating profit, and suddenly all that work had been undone.  Five weeks profit, disappearing in just one day.

Look, the drawdown is nothing out of expectation.  It’s just that normally, it happens over a longer stretch of time and I feel that would be easier to compartmentalize.  It’s all part of what we do.  In fact, back in the summer, there was a slightly larger drawdown that I suffered, but that occurred over seven weeks.  I didn’t have any problem at all dealing with that.  I knew that the losses would be regained, and I know this time that they will be regained.  But when you lose five weeks work in the space of 12 hours?  Yeah, not great.

That brings us to The Value Machine.  Now here is a service I retain total faith in (as I do WinnerOdds!), but which just isn’t quite working for me at the moment.  January should have ended in a small profit for me, but due to a mistake at my end, didn’t.  This month, and a pattern of losses – almost getting back to break even – losses again, has set in.  All natural.  All part of what to expect.  But the pattern of 17 consecutive losers, culminating with 6/6 losing on Saturday to go with the situation with WinnerOdds, again I found it tough to deal with.

Now here’s the bit that’s really stupid.  Everything felt like it was going wrong.  I watched Arsenal put in the worst performance I’ve seen them produce for what must be about three years!  My Fantasy Football Team – riding high with a strong ranking – crashed and burned.  Players I brought in did nothing or worse, the players I’d taken out were scoring goals for fun.  I know, this really isn’t important and nothing I would ever get down about…I’m just pointing out that Saturday really was “one of those days”.  To round it all off, I had a speeding ticket come through the post!  I’m usually pretty careful about driving within the speed limit, but I got caught doing 80 on the M5 last week.  I had seen a camera flash – just hadn’t thought it was me, because there was another car coming up to overtake me on the outside lane. 🙁

And herein lies a salutary lesson.  Whereas when I was new to betting, I would have done my version of going “on tilt” after Saturday’s performance, which would have meant either not continuing to follow WO/TVM, or maybe drastically reducing my stake size.  Now, knowing what is important, when I got to my laptop on Sunday I just carried on putting on the bets as they came through as normal.  Just grind, is what I told myself.

Sunday?

77% of the losses on Saturday were made back.  Yup, after all that drama, the betting weekend ended up being no worse than mediocre.  Nothing particularly dramatic at all.  If the overall loss had been split between the two days, I’d likely not have even mentioned anything in this post at all.

The Value Machine had winners in all four races in which I had bets, WinnerOdds Football generated 63 points of profit, three placed golfers meant a small profit there for the week, and eSoccer Edge had a strong day.

What was all the fuss about?

Look.  Overall, the year as it stands is underperforming for me.  But not to any level that can’t be expected.  Fundamentally things are sound, and it is just a case of grinding away and knowing that the profit will follow.  Put it this way.  By far my bigger worry moving forward is the ability to keep accounts open – as always – than whether or not I’m going to actually make any money.  Was it ever thus?

However, and this is something I hinted at before I went away last week, I do need to change some things.  Yesterday was my first “proper” day in a new business, and it’s going to take a lot of my time, as any new venture does.  At the same time, my son who I rely on considerably, needs to come away from betting and concentrate on what he needs to do, for the next few months at least.

I’ll explain what these changes are in my next post.  But for now, rest assured that WinnerOdds Football and The Value Machine are central to my plans moving forward.

Here are the figures:

Febuary 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 770.82pts, -253.5pts, ROI -32.8%, ROC -16.9%, Drawdown -253.5pts, Max DD -312.94pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 428pts, -115.3pts, ROI -26.9%, ROC -7.6%, Drawdown -115.3pts, Max DD -136.3pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 3,885pts, +518.6pts, ROI 13.3%, ROC 34.5%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -97.12pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 61.5pts, -61.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -4.1%, Drawdown -61.5pts, Max DD -61.5pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,470pts, -159.39pts, ROI -10.8%, ROC -10.6%, Drawdown -159.39pts, Max DD -195.19pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 4,935pts, +12.71pts, ROI 0.25%, ROC 0.4%, Drawdown -246.39pts, Max DD -393.85pts

TOTAL: Staked 11,654pts, -56.13pts, ROI -0.48%, ROC -0.62%, Drawdown -99.93pts, Max DD -434.05pts

A quick round-up for you.  Quick, because I’m off on holiday for a week this evening, and I’ve packing to do.  I say packing.  It will very much be “man” packing – you know, a couple of pairs of Boxers, a couple of pairs of jeans and hoodies, and a silent prayer that there’s a washing machine where you’re going.

So whilst I remember, a note there’ll be no posts next week.

In the meantime, a little bit of profit so far this week that brings the month (almost) back to break even.

The standout bet was a bet using the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker with 8 teams placed into 28 trebles.  Five winning teams meant a decent, if not spectacular profit (two winners were at odds on) but I’ll definitely take it.

Same old pattern for The Value Machine – ie. back to (almost) level.  The question now is do we fall back into another drawdown, or kick on into some decent profit.

eSoccer Edge rolling along quite nicely, and nearly on a profit high now, after the sharp drawdown last month.  And as for WinnerOdds Football – that is now on a new profit high for both the month and year to date.  Happy days.

One note is that some things are going to have to change when I get back.  Without going into boring detail, I’ve been only able to work in my new business at less than half pace up to this point, due to certain Terms in the contract of employment I had with my previous employers that are enforceable for six months after my leaving.  Those 6 months are up on the 19th, and from that point, I’m going to be running at 100% pace.  The knock on effect is that something will have to give with the betting.  Not too much, but I do need to figure out a few things.  This Bet Diary is nothing if not a true reflection of real life and how betting can fit into it, eh?.  I’m long past the small kids stage of life, but as we know, things happen.

OK, so I’m off for some bracing sea air, a log fire, and some/lots of red wine.  And, I hope, a washing machine.

Catch you later.

Febuary 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 665.36pts, -217pts, ROI -32.6%, ROC -14.4%, Drawdown -217pts, Max DD -312.94pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 251pts, -63.3pts, ROI -25.21%, ROC -4.22%, Drawdown -63.3pts, Max DD -63.3pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 2,130pts, +164.74pts, ROI 7.7%, ROC 10.9%, Drawdown -6.17pts, Max DD -97.12pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 61.5pts, -61.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -4.1%, Drawdown -61.5pts, Max DD -61.5pts

The Value Machine: Staked 920pts, -51.95pts, ROI -5.6%, ROC -3.4%, Drawdown -51.95pts, Max DD -195.19pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 2,686pts, +175.77pts, ROI 6.5%, ROC 5.8%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -97.9pts

TOTAL: Staked 6817.73pts, -53.24pts, ROI -0.7%, ROC -0.5%, Drawdown -53.24pts, Max DD -282.11pts

As you’ll read below the timing of this post, which explains how I use the Bookie Bashing Player xG and Bet Builder Tools, isn’t great.  As always though, performance is all about the long term and until fairly recently, the suite of trackers and tools were doing a fine job for me.  Just now though, not so good.

The Player xG Tool is one that I used a lot more frequently than I do now, simply down to restrictions on time.  The Tool provides a fair price for players to score at any time (AGS – Anytime Goal Scorer), and to score first (FGS – First Goal Scorer), before comparing to prices available at Betfair Exchange and calculating the level of Expected Value in the Exchange price, whether that be negative or positive.  I should also mention that it takes the BetFred price for FGS and calculates EV if striking a bet utilizing the bookmaker’s Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven concession.

It’s a valuable Tool, and one that one day, when I have more time free, I plan to use more frequently.

As for my “rules”, well, they’re very simple.  I won’t take a bet that is indicated at being anything less than 105% +EV, and I wait for team news.  When team news has been confirmed, the Tool normalises the individual Player xG to total the Team xG, and so will be more efficient that pre-team news.  On a practical level, it also means that by waiting, we know at least the player we’ve backed is definitely playing.  We don’t want to be backing someone who perhaps comes on at some point in the last 20 minutes from the substitute’s bench with limited time to make a scoring impact.  I have on occasion gone early, but only if I’ve been very confident that player in question will start.

Have I been burnt by going early?  Yes.  Yes, I have.  And it’s not great, which is why I now wait.  The exception to this was when I was getting to the Shops much more frequently and using using the DD/HH value.  But alas my shop visits are relatively rare currently.  I’m sure that will change at some point.

I should mention that all my Goalscorer bets are placed using the Exchanges.  Maybe Betfair, although I find that Smarkets often provide slightly better prices.  Not all the time by any means, but often enough to merit checking.

The Tool I use possibly the most is the Bet Builder Tool, where I construct the Enhanced Specials that the Exchanges put up to find value.  The majority of these bets evolve around Player Stats, typically Shots on Target or Cards or Saves, the prices for which come from the BB Player Stats Tool.

It’s not unusual to find fantastic value.  As an example, today – Tuesday – I’ve backed Viktor Gyokeres to have 3 or more shots on target in tonight’s Champions League match between Sporting and Borussia Dortmund.  I’ve got 6.0 (5/1) from the Enhanced Specials at BetDaq, where the Tool has the fair price at 4.91.  That’s +EV of 122.2%!

Most of my bets carry +EV of between 105 and 110% (again, I don’t dip below the 105% marker), and I stake £x amount to win a set £y.

As you’re about to read, my various ‘Value Bets’ are going through the mill just at the moment, but the Enhanced Specials/Player Stats bets are between them running at an ROI of 22.5% for 2025 to date, despite the recent drawdown.  This ROI is due to come down as that rate is not sustainable.

Bets take me about 5-10 minutes each day to find, and I tend to look at both lunchtime and early evening.  So not a huge amount of time investment for the Bet Builder Tool on its own.

As for last week’s betting, well, this month has started off mirroring the pattern of last month.  That being, a bit of a stodgy time of it.

Every single ‘strand’ of my Value Bets mini-portfolio is currently on its deepest drawdown of the year to date, which individually doesn’t really amount to much but when put altogether, has meant that February has got off to a losing start.  Add to that the fact that Sys Analyst is in a bit of a trough and that The Value Machine has a pattern for me of losing run/losses recouped to get close to break even/losing run, then it’s all a bit of a struggle.  Waiting for that ‘Heater’!

In a more positive light WinnerOdds Football is running at an ROI of 5.1% for February, its marker for long term performance, and eSoccer Edge has – for me anyway – been on a strong run of form.  You may remember last month that an unexpected spike in goals, the reasons for which could really only be guessed at (even if in a fairly educated way) had resulted in a bit of a sudden drawdown.  All those losses have been clawed back and in fact the profit is now standing at a high since I started following, with an overall bank growth of 16.4%.

So the current feeling is one of going slightly backwards although not at an alarming rate, and being patient waiting for the time where three or more of the services/strategies all find some form simultaneously.

Febuary 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 560.99pts, -312.94pts, ROI -55.78%, ROC -20.86%, Drawdown -312.94pts, Max DD -312.94pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 251pts, -63.3pts, ROI -25.21%, ROC -4.22%, Drawdown -63.3pts, Max DD -63.3pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 1,395pts, +170.91pts, ROI 12.25%, ROC 11.39%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -97.12pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 61.5pts, -61.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -4.1%, Drawdown -61.5pts, Max DD -61.5pts

The Value Machine: Staked 580pts, -53.87pts, ROI -9.28%, ROC -3.59%, Drawdown -53.87pts, Max DD -195.19pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 2,204pts, +113.51pts, ROI 5.15%, ROC 3.78%, Drawdown -22.43pts, Max DD -97.9pts

TOTAL: Staked 5,048.99pts, -207.19pts, ROI -4.1%, ROC -2.3%, Drawdown 207.19pts, Max DD -282.11pts