I’ve been a bit of a burk.  Managed to overwrite February’s results with March’s to date.  Doh!

So, needing to get this post written early this morning as I won’t have a chance later, you’re going to have to bear with me for the February monthly review.  I’ll do that later this week, although to be honest in the bigger picture, there is not a lot to report.  From memory, I ended up in profit, but with an ROI of less than 1%.  An awful lot of bets struck to stand still, and February did feel like a month largely spent wading in treacle.

March is seeing a slimline portfolio in action.  As I’ve mentioned recently, circumstances have changed and time is now my most precious commodity.  I’ve relied on my lad getting a lot of bets on but his situation is changing too over the next few months which means he can’t do anywhere near so much moving forward.  Certainly not until the summer.  The Bet Diary is very much designed to show betting in real life…and this is it!

So taking time to think about how to progress when I was on holiday the other week was important.  My thoughts were centred around trying to find an answer as to how I can get as many bets down as possible, but very quickly.

My lad is still going to be able to get the golf bets down.  Half an hour a week is fine, so all good there.

eSoccerEdge is high turnover, but very quick and easy to strike the bets, and most significantly for my purpose, you can just dip in and out when suits.  Bets are churned out through the day, and I don’t get down anywhere near the total of bets generated, and yet can still maintain a very healthy level of turnover.  The only drawback is that I’m still relatively new to it.  I’ve loved what I’ve seen so far, and it was by far and away my most profitable service last month, but I usually build stakes very slowly with any service I’m relatively new to.  Now I need to up stakes to compensate for fewer overall bets, which to my very risk-averse approach, puts me just ever so slightly out of my comfort zone.  However, the fact I can back a good number of selections at whatever time in the morning/afternoon/evening that I can, is a massive plus point, so out of my comfort zone I go.

The Value Machine is a perfect set up for me.  I just need it to really start producing the goods.  As I’ve already stated within these pages, I messed up January myself.  What really should have been a small profit on the month was for me, a loss.  It goes back to building up stakes (and if I’m honest, the issue of being  prevented from depositing the necessary funds by restrictive affordability limitations) as I grow more familiar and comfortable with a service.  February produced a tiny loss (it was essentially break even) but was a month rescued by the huge drifter I wrote about last week, with a winner going from the advised price of 6.5 to 26.  I still can’t get my stakes quite to where I want them.  A decent month this month though should mean I can up bet size by April.

Where TVM fits in so well is that I can, during the week anyway, just quickly stick bets on at Betfair SP, setting a minimum acceptable price.  There’s no thought required.  Any bets that come through in the morning I can quickly get down in a bunch at lunchtime.  Those that come through in the afternoon, it takes less than a minute to get the money down.  And turnover is still high.

Finally, WinnerOdds Football.  This is the most difficult but by using ten minute time windows first thing in the morning, lunchtime and early and then late evening, such are the number of bets that come through that again, I can maximize my use of time.  I can retain strong levels of turnover, whilst not taking up much time at all.

And there we have it.  Is it the perfect scenario?  No.  I’d much rather just be carrying on as normal.  But that – for the next little while at least – isn’t possible.  So compromise, and flexibility, is a must.  Let’s see where it gets us.

Meanwhile, a good start to the month with the weekend producing some strong profit, including a lovely Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value winner in Joe Highsmith, on whom I got 110/1!  Towards the end, I had Highsmith, another WGV pick in Ben Griffin (45/1), and from the Tracker, Jacob Bridgeman (100/1) all vying for the lead with only a couple of holes to play.  Happy days!  Sadly, success not replicated in the DPWT event, for which I suffered a total blank.  Good profit overall though, taking the 2025 profit to a new high.

A decent weekend for WinnerOdds Football too, as it looks to claw back the heavy losses suffered the previous weekend.  Much more like it this week.

So March has got off to a decent start.  Let’s hope the new, slimline, temporary portfolio continues to do the business.

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 133pts, +158.75pts, ROI 119.36%, ROC 10.58%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 360pts, -41pts, ROI -11.3%, ROC -2%, Drawdown -41pts, Max DD -41pts

The Value Machine: Staked 150pts, +43.13pts, ROI 28.7%, ROC 2.8%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 1,125pts, +138.21pts, ROI 12.2%, ROC 4.6%, Drawdown -60pts, Max DD -60pts

TOTAL: Staked 1,768pts, +299.09pts, ROI 16.9%, ROC 3.5%, Drawdown -51.2pts, Max DD -51.2pts

For context, if you haven’t read the previous Bet Diary post, go read it now and come back.

For those of you that have read Monday’s missive, well, what can I say?  What a ridiculous, crazy, sometimes infuriating, often downright daft…game this is we play.

Since Saturday’s absolute disaster show, which basically lost all the profit made this year to date, come Tuesday night I was sitting on a profit high for 2025.  And it was all down to just one bet.

On Monday I alluded to the fact that we are going to see some changes implemented in what I’m betting on and how, the result of changing work circumstances for myself and my son’s own situation.  Not changes I want to make necessarily, but if any of you have read the Bet Diary for a length of time, you’ll know it reflects real life.  That’s the point of it, to be honest.  This is betting in the real world where things happen.  I’m not a full time bettor.  If I was, betting itself would be a bit easier.  But I’m not, and so it isn’t.

I had intended this post to detail what those changes are, but that is going to have to wait, in light of that one bet on Tuesday afternoon that I want to concentrate this post on instead!

It’s fair to say that The Value Machine hadn’t quite produced the goods for me yet, in 2025.  I use only the Exchanges for following this service, and my strategy to date has largely been to look to get my stakes into the market – if at least the minimum advised price is available – at some point in the last three minutes in the build up to the race.  For any bets in any races that I know I’m not going to be sitting at my laptop during that timeframe, I’d just stick in my stake at Betfair SP, setting the minimum odds acceptable at the advised TVM price advised.

One fundamental change I’m making moving forward is that all TVM bets, I’ll be using Betfair SP for.  It means that getting the bets on will take minimal time.  I started doing that this week.

On Tuesday, a horse called SeanOG was tipped up in a small race at Catterick.  The advised TVM price was 6.5.

Come Tuesday evening, I got back from the cricket coaching I do, logged into my Betfair account and immediately clocked that the balance had gone up.  A lot.

First thought was what the hell has happened here?

What had happened was that SeanOG had won…at a Betfair SP of 26!  I mean, when does that ever happen.  How often does a horse drift like that, and then not run like it had only three good legs and had double cod and chips for lunch?

But no.  This time, the Sporting Life site tells us that Sean OG “came clear before the last” and “stayed on strongly” to win by three and a half lengths.

There’s been a very small dip across Wednesday and Thursday, but from being (not quite) in despair on Saturday night to this on the Tuesday, and the impact that each day had had on the P&L…what we do is madness.  Isn’t it?

Have a great weekend, folks.

Febuary 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 795.64pts, -278.32pts, ROI -34.9%, ROC -18.5%, Drawdown -278.32pts, Max DD -312.94pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 428pts, -115.3pts, ROI -26.9%, ROC -7.6%, Drawdown -115.3pts, Max DD -136.3pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 4,320pts, +611.62pts, ROI 14.1%, ROC 40.7%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -97.12pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 61.5pts, -61.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -4.1%, Drawdown -61.5pts, Max DD -61.5pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,650pts, +30.85pts, ROI 1.8%, ROC 2%, Drawdown -80pts, Max DD -195.19pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 5,179pts, -58.14pts, ROI -1.1%, ROC -1.9%, Drawdown -317.24pts, Max DD -393.85pts

TOTAL: Staked 12,488.01pts, +101.46pts, ROI 0.8%, ROC 1.1%, Drawdown -99.2pts, Max DD -434.05pts

Saturday was an absolute disaster.  Do you ever have one of those days when absolutely nothing goes the right way?  And it doesn’t have to be limited to your betting.

I enjoyed a week away last year down on the South Devon coast, but after a drive home on Friday lasting over six and a half hours due to weather, accidents, and usual Friday afternoon chaos on the M6, I was feeling almost like I was jet lagged when I woke up on Saturday morning.  And the day went downhill from there.

It was an interesting experience.  I like to feel that through experience, I handle losing runs fairly well.  I’m pretty sanguine about them nowadays.  To be honest, it’s when you go through the weeks of grind without making any progress that I find more taxing psychologically, even if I am fully aware it’s all part of the game.  But come Saturday evening, I was feeling pretty down about it all.

Let’s start a summary of the last week though with the exceptionally good, and that has been eSoccer Edge.  Its form has been outstanding, and when I tell you that for just this month to date, it’s generated bank growth for me of 34.5%! Every day of the last week has generated a profit.  Not a huge amount each day, but it’s amazing how quickly a regular, small but solid profit adds up.  There’s no doubt it’s currently on a hot streak, with my ROI for February standing at 13.3%, which is way above long term expectation.  So the pace will have to slow, but when I remember that spell last month that saw a pretty sharp drawdown as a consequence of an abrupt change in the dynamics of the markets, to see where I’m at now with it is very impressive.

Now let’s turn to the disastrous.

WinnerOdds Football had a nightmare on Saturday for me.  Sitting on a very healthy profit for the year on Friday night, by Saturday night all that profit, and some, had gone. And you know what, that came as a bit of a blow.   Not so much the amount of money lost.  More the fact that five weeks of striking plenty of bets and steadily accumulating profit, and suddenly all that work had been undone.  Five weeks profit, disappearing in just one day.

Look, the drawdown is nothing out of expectation.  It’s just that normally, it happens over a longer stretch of time and I feel that would be easier to compartmentalize.  It’s all part of what we do.  In fact, back in the summer, there was a slightly larger drawdown that I suffered, but that occurred over seven weeks.  I didn’t have any problem at all dealing with that.  I knew that the losses would be regained, and I know this time that they will be regained.  But when you lose five weeks work in the space of 12 hours?  Yeah, not great.

That brings us to The Value Machine.  Now here is a service I retain total faith in (as I do WinnerOdds!), but which just isn’t quite working for me at the moment.  January should have ended in a small profit for me, but due to a mistake at my end, didn’t.  This month, and a pattern of losses – almost getting back to break even – losses again, has set in.  All natural.  All part of what to expect.  But the pattern of 17 consecutive losers, culminating with 6/6 losing on Saturday to go with the situation with WinnerOdds, again I found it tough to deal with.

Now here’s the bit that’s really stupid.  Everything felt like it was going wrong.  I watched Arsenal put in the worst performance I’ve seen them produce for what must be about three years!  My Fantasy Football Team – riding high with a strong ranking – crashed and burned.  Players I brought in did nothing or worse, the players I’d taken out were scoring goals for fun.  I know, this really isn’t important and nothing I would ever get down about…I’m just pointing out that Saturday really was “one of those days”.  To round it all off, I had a speeding ticket come through the post!  I’m usually pretty careful about driving within the speed limit, but I got caught doing 80 on the M5 last week.  I had seen a camera flash – just hadn’t thought it was me, because there was another car coming up to overtake me on the outside lane. 🙁

And herein lies a salutary lesson.  Whereas when I was new to betting, I would have done my version of going “on tilt” after Saturday’s performance, which would have meant either not continuing to follow WO/TVM, or maybe drastically reducing my stake size.  Now, knowing what is important, when I got to my laptop on Sunday I just carried on putting on the bets as they came through as normal.  Just grind, is what I told myself.

Sunday?

77% of the losses on Saturday were made back.  Yup, after all that drama, the betting weekend ended up being no worse than mediocre.  Nothing particularly dramatic at all.  If the overall loss had been split between the two days, I’d likely not have even mentioned anything in this post at all.

The Value Machine had winners in all four races in which I had bets, WinnerOdds Football generated 63 points of profit, three placed golfers meant a small profit there for the week, and eSoccer Edge had a strong day.

What was all the fuss about?

Look.  Overall, the year as it stands is underperforming for me.  But not to any level that can’t be expected.  Fundamentally things are sound, and it is just a case of grinding away and knowing that the profit will follow.  Put it this way.  By far my bigger worry moving forward is the ability to keep accounts open – as always – than whether or not I’m going to actually make any money.  Was it ever thus?

However, and this is something I hinted at before I went away last week, I do need to change some things.  Yesterday was my first “proper” day in a new business, and it’s going to take a lot of my time, as any new venture does.  At the same time, my son who I rely on considerably, needs to come away from betting and concentrate on what he needs to do, for the next few months at least.

I’ll explain what these changes are in my next post.  But for now, rest assured that WinnerOdds Football and The Value Machine are central to my plans moving forward.

Here are the figures:

Febuary 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 770.82pts, -253.5pts, ROI -32.8%, ROC -16.9%, Drawdown -253.5pts, Max DD -312.94pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 428pts, -115.3pts, ROI -26.9%, ROC -7.6%, Drawdown -115.3pts, Max DD -136.3pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 3,885pts, +518.6pts, ROI 13.3%, ROC 34.5%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -97.12pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 61.5pts, -61.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -4.1%, Drawdown -61.5pts, Max DD -61.5pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,470pts, -159.39pts, ROI -10.8%, ROC -10.6%, Drawdown -159.39pts, Max DD -195.19pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 4,935pts, +12.71pts, ROI 0.25%, ROC 0.4%, Drawdown -246.39pts, Max DD -393.85pts

TOTAL: Staked 11,654pts, -56.13pts, ROI -0.48%, ROC -0.62%, Drawdown -99.93pts, Max DD -434.05pts

A quick round-up for you.  Quick, because I’m off on holiday for a week this evening, and I’ve packing to do.  I say packing.  It will very much be “man” packing – you know, a couple of pairs of Boxers, a couple of pairs of jeans and hoodies, and a silent prayer that there’s a washing machine where you’re going.

So whilst I remember, a note there’ll be no posts next week.

In the meantime, a little bit of profit so far this week that brings the month (almost) back to break even.

The standout bet was a bet using the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker with 8 teams placed into 28 trebles.  Five winning teams meant a decent, if not spectacular profit (two winners were at odds on) but I’ll definitely take it.

Same old pattern for The Value Machine – ie. back to (almost) level.  The question now is do we fall back into another drawdown, or kick on into some decent profit.

eSoccer Edge rolling along quite nicely, and nearly on a profit high now, after the sharp drawdown last month.  And as for WinnerOdds Football – that is now on a new profit high for both the month and year to date.  Happy days.

One note is that some things are going to have to change when I get back.  Without going into boring detail, I’ve been only able to work in my new business at less than half pace up to this point, due to certain Terms in the contract of employment I had with my previous employers that are enforceable for six months after my leaving.  Those 6 months are up on the 19th, and from that point, I’m going to be running at 100% pace.  The knock on effect is that something will have to give with the betting.  Not too much, but I do need to figure out a few things.  This Bet Diary is nothing if not a true reflection of real life and how betting can fit into it, eh?.  I’m long past the small kids stage of life, but as we know, things happen.

OK, so I’m off for some bracing sea air, a log fire, and some/lots of red wine.  And, I hope, a washing machine.

Catch you later.

Febuary 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 665.36pts, -217pts, ROI -32.6%, ROC -14.4%, Drawdown -217pts, Max DD -312.94pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 251pts, -63.3pts, ROI -25.21%, ROC -4.22%, Drawdown -63.3pts, Max DD -63.3pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 2,130pts, +164.74pts, ROI 7.7%, ROC 10.9%, Drawdown -6.17pts, Max DD -97.12pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 61.5pts, -61.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -4.1%, Drawdown -61.5pts, Max DD -61.5pts

The Value Machine: Staked 920pts, -51.95pts, ROI -5.6%, ROC -3.4%, Drawdown -51.95pts, Max DD -195.19pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 2,686pts, +175.77pts, ROI 6.5%, ROC 5.8%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -97.9pts

TOTAL: Staked 6817.73pts, -53.24pts, ROI -0.7%, ROC -0.5%, Drawdown -53.24pts, Max DD -282.11pts

As you’ll read below the timing of this post, which explains how I use the Bookie Bashing Player xG and Bet Builder Tools, isn’t great.  As always though, performance is all about the long term and until fairly recently, the suite of trackers and tools were doing a fine job for me.  Just now though, not so good.

The Player xG Tool is one that I used a lot more frequently than I do now, simply down to restrictions on time.  The Tool provides a fair price for players to score at any time (AGS – Anytime Goal Scorer), and to score first (FGS – First Goal Scorer), before comparing to prices available at Betfair Exchange and calculating the level of Expected Value in the Exchange price, whether that be negative or positive.  I should also mention that it takes the BetFred price for FGS and calculates EV if striking a bet utilizing the bookmaker’s Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven concession.

It’s a valuable Tool, and one that one day, when I have more time free, I plan to use more frequently.

As for my “rules”, well, they’re very simple.  I won’t take a bet that is indicated at being anything less than 105% +EV, and I wait for team news.  When team news has been confirmed, the Tool normalises the individual Player xG to total the Team xG, and so will be more efficient that pre-team news.  On a practical level, it also means that by waiting, we know at least the player we’ve backed is definitely playing.  We don’t want to be backing someone who perhaps comes on at some point in the last 20 minutes from the substitute’s bench with limited time to make a scoring impact.  I have on occasion gone early, but only if I’ve been very confident that player in question will start.

Have I been burnt by going early?  Yes.  Yes, I have.  And it’s not great, which is why I now wait.  The exception to this was when I was getting to the Shops much more frequently and using using the DD/HH value.  But alas my shop visits are relatively rare currently.  I’m sure that will change at some point.

I should mention that all my Goalscorer bets are placed using the Exchanges.  Maybe Betfair, although I find that Smarkets often provide slightly better prices.  Not all the time by any means, but often enough to merit checking.

The Tool I use possibly the most is the Bet Builder Tool, where I construct the Enhanced Specials that the Exchanges put up to find value.  The majority of these bets evolve around Player Stats, typically Shots on Target or Cards or Saves, the prices for which come from the BB Player Stats Tool.

It’s not unusual to find fantastic value.  As an example, today – Tuesday – I’ve backed Viktor Gyokeres to have 3 or more shots on target in tonight’s Champions League match between Sporting and Borussia Dortmund.  I’ve got 6.0 (5/1) from the Enhanced Specials at BetDaq, where the Tool has the fair price at 4.91.  That’s +EV of 122.2%!

Most of my bets carry +EV of between 105 and 110% (again, I don’t dip below the 105% marker), and I stake £x amount to win a set £y.

As you’re about to read, my various ‘Value Bets’ are going through the mill just at the moment, but the Enhanced Specials/Player Stats bets are between them running at an ROI of 22.5% for 2025 to date, despite the recent drawdown.  This ROI is due to come down as that rate is not sustainable.

Bets take me about 5-10 minutes each day to find, and I tend to look at both lunchtime and early evening.  So not a huge amount of time investment for the Bet Builder Tool on its own.

As for last week’s betting, well, this month has started off mirroring the pattern of last month.  That being, a bit of a stodgy time of it.

Every single ‘strand’ of my Value Bets mini-portfolio is currently on its deepest drawdown of the year to date, which individually doesn’t really amount to much but when put altogether, has meant that February has got off to a losing start.  Add to that the fact that Sys Analyst is in a bit of a trough and that The Value Machine has a pattern for me of losing run/losses recouped to get close to break even/losing run, then it’s all a bit of a struggle.  Waiting for that ‘Heater’!

In a more positive light WinnerOdds Football is running at an ROI of 5.1% for February, its marker for long term performance, and eSoccer Edge has – for me anyway – been on a strong run of form.  You may remember last month that an unexpected spike in goals, the reasons for which could really only be guessed at (even if in a fairly educated way) had resulted in a bit of a sudden drawdown.  All those losses have been clawed back and in fact the profit is now standing at a high since I started following, with an overall bank growth of 16.4%.

So the current feeling is one of going slightly backwards although not at an alarming rate, and being patient waiting for the time where three or more of the services/strategies all find some form simultaneously.

Febuary 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 560.99pts, -312.94pts, ROI -55.78%, ROC -20.86%, Drawdown -312.94pts, Max DD -312.94pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 251pts, -63.3pts, ROI -25.21%, ROC -4.22%, Drawdown -63.3pts, Max DD -63.3pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 1,395pts, +170.91pts, ROI 12.25%, ROC 11.39%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -97.12pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 61.5pts, -61.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -4.1%, Drawdown -61.5pts, Max DD -61.5pts

The Value Machine: Staked 580pts, -53.87pts, ROI -9.28%, ROC -3.59%, Drawdown -53.87pts, Max DD -195.19pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 2,204pts, +113.51pts, ROI 5.15%, ROC 3.78%, Drawdown -22.43pts, Max DD -97.9pts

TOTAL: Staked 5,048.99pts, -207.19pts, ROI -4.1%, ROC -2.3%, Drawdown 207.19pts, Max DD -282.11pts

Before we look at what sort of start February has got off to, I’m going to start a breakdown of which Tools and Trackers I use from the Bookie Bashing site, the results from which I record under the “Bookie Bashing Tools” label in my results.  I’ll go through these one at a time through the next few Bet Diary posts.  Any questions, you know where to find me.

Let’s start with one of the Trackers (as opposed to a Tool).

So far for 2025, the Combo Tracker has elicited for me an unsustainably high ROI of 82.2%, and a points profit total of 59.2.  What this tells you is that I don’t source too many bets from this Tracker, and nowhere near as many as I could, granted more time.

But here lies one of the beauties of what Bookie Bashing offers.  You can dip in and out at a time that is convenient for you.  There is such a broad suite of Tools and Trackers that you need not be wedded to just one or two, and that is the approach I take.  Instead I’ll look to use as many as possible, dipping in and out almost on a whim.  If I happen to be sitting at my laptop an hour before kick off of a match in one of the European leagues on an early Saturday evening, then I’ll load up the Combo Tracker to see if there is any bet worth taking.  I honestly give it no more thought than that.

A bet from the Combo Tracker worth taking for me, is a bet that is perceived to carry a positive EV of 10% or more.  I’ve drawn this arbitrary line after listening to Tom discussing the Tracker on one of the videos regularly posted up (free access to everyone) on the BB site or on the BB YouTube channel.  Over the long term bets at 105% EV are profitable, but I prefer the more selective approach, probably because I have so much more betting to do in the general run of things.

What I particularly like about the Combo Tracker is that we’re sourcing value from what are generally considered to be mug bets.  These are predominantly your #WhatOddsPaddy, #YourOdds (William Hill) and RequestABets from Skybet.  Generally a combination of a certain number of corners/bookings to each or a particular team, or some combination thereof.  The sort of bets that the bookmakers are often advertising when trying to attract new customers.  So it is unlikely that striking such bets is going to place pressure on the viability of your accounts.  Indeed, there is anecdotal evidence that Skybet have even lifted some restrictions on accounts after a fair number of these type of bets have been placed!

Just one thing I do bear in mind is that it is not at all unusual to get a lot of value bets sourced from one particular match.  If I was to place all of them I feel I’d potentially be overstaking.  So I limit my bets to one per match, usually picking the bet available at somewhere between Evens and 4/1 if there are many.

So, to summarize: Combo Bet Tracker used an hour or less before kick off across many and varied football matches, 110%+ EV, only one bet per match, and I stake to win a certain amount.

I’m not saying that is the best way to use it.  I am saying it’s my way of using it.

And so has February started?

Not brilliantly, truth be told, but not disastrously either.

Interestingly, the best performer has been eSoccer Edge which has already amassed bank growth of 7.2%, mainly due to strong gains across Tuesday and Wednesday.  Since then, however, the bets have largely dried up.  Certainly the number of picks being issued dropped dramatically yesterday (Thursday) and as at 10.00 this Friday morning I’m yet to strike a bet.  There must be a reason for this, and it may just be the normal rhythm of what it does but of course being so new to it, I wouldn’t yet know.  What I do know is that the losses suffered from the fairly sharp drawdown in January have all been recouped and this week reached a new profit high.  The 12.6% ROI for February is waaaaaay higher than expectation, but overall now the ROI stands at 3.5% which is getting close to the 4-7% expected long term ROI.

WinnerOdds Football has ticked along, as I find it tends to during midweek.  It’s the weekend, which carries far more picks, that really dictates the week’s performance.

No third consecutive week’s winner on the golf, but no real damage done either with a couple finding the places.

On the negative side, my value bets have largely lost this week, but not many placed.  And The Value Machine got me back to being almost level from its previous drawdown, only to embark on another.

OK then.  Have a great weekend, and on Monday I’ll talk about how I use the Player xG and Bet Builder Tools on the Bookie Bashing site.

Febuary 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 294.92pts, -107.08pts, ROI -36.3%, ROC -7.13%, Drawdown -107.08pts, Max DD -107.08pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 113pts, -27.8pts, ROI -24.6%, ROC -1.85%, Drawdown -27.8pts, Max DD -27.8pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 855pts, +108.03pts, ROI 12.63%, ROC 7.2%, Drawdown -15pts, Max DD -97.12pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 0pts, 0pts, ROI 0%, ROC 0%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

The Value Machine: Staked 380pts, -185.09pts, ROI -48.7%, ROC -12.33%, Drawdown -185.09pts, Max DD -195.19pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 1,067pts, +112.14pts, ROI 10.5%, ROC 3.73%, Drawdown -23.8pts, Max DD -55pts

TOTAL: Staked 2,706.42pts, -99.8pts, ROI -3.68%, ROC -1.1%, Drawdown 99.8pts, Max DD -282.11pts

Can’t help thinking there should be some guitar-based track playing in the background as you read this, as per Match of the Day’s Goal of the Month competition (by the way, did I enjoy MoTD2 last night?  Yes.  Yes, I did!).  Something by The Lightning Seeds or some geezer you’ve never heard of but the track makes you look him/the up on Wiki.

Anyway, in January’s ‘Service of the Month’ competition, there was just one winner, and so clear and obvious was it that even VAR couldn’t f*ck it up.  Although no doubt, they’d try their best to…

Err, yes, we can see clearly that the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value has outperformed every other service by at least 300%, but, err, we’d just like to take ten minutes to draw some lines at some random point and then, err, come back to confirm the on-pitch decision, err, despite the whole of rest of the world seeing that that decision was clearly and obviously, err, wrong…

Good process.

Anyway, thankfully, this is a VAR-free zone, and therefore with two winners, an ROI of 82.3% and bank growth of 22% in January, I can confirm that the Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value is quite clearly the stand out service for January.  When we add in a play-off loser in Week 1, what was a spectacular month could easily have been, erm, more spectacular.

Overall, January ended in a profit, and on a profit high when all things had been totted up at close of play on Friday.  6.22% ROC in total is what I would call a “middling” month, but bearing in mind I was in the midst of a not too clever drawdown halfway through the month, I’ll take it.

The next largest contributor was the raft of Value Bets sourced from the Bookie Bashing Tools & Trackers.  I know I’ve promised I would go into some detail as to how I use these, which I will very soon (the end of the month has kinda got in the way).

My biggest profit contributor from these last month came from using the Bet Builder to identify value in various Player Stats markets put up under the ‘Enhanced Specials’ label at BetDaq.  These include things like player Shots on Target, or Saves, or Cards.  Not too many bets as my time is restricted, but a high percentage of winners from those I did strike and an ROI of 55.78% is exceptional.  At the other end of the scale has been the Early Pay Out Tracker, but I’ve settled on a set strategy for February now and let’s see if we see some level of recovery.

WinnerOdds Football came home in third place in terms of bank growth (a tadge under 5%).  A really poor final Saturday took the shine off a little though, as up until that point it was flying.  Those losses have almost been recovered now and as always I’m confident that in no time at all we’ll be pushing on to a new profit high.  In some ways, this service is the key stone in what I do.  It has twice the funds allocated to it, primarily because I need to look to exploit its strengths whilst having access to a particular account.  For me personally, this is an area I’m vulnerable, so my attitude is to look to make as much of that lovely, sweet, juicy hay whilst the sun is shining.  The sun will set at some point, I’m aware of that.  I’m also aware I need to move on from torturous metaphors too, so…

Sadly the other elements to the portfolio ended January in the red.  The most vexing perhaps, has been The Value Machine.  A horrible first half of the month was followed by a reduction of those losses over the second half, and to level stakes a small profit would have been achieved.  However, with the introduction of eSoccer Edge I tweaked the fund allocations, effectively drawing that money from the TVM bank, which subsequently lowered the stake size on TVM.  Sod’s Law being what it is, this more or less coincided with the TVM bounce back, and so of course the losses are taking longer to claw back in pure monetary terms.  That’s on me.  A mistake, ultimately, on my part, although hindsight is always 20:20.

So, ultimately, my figures do not really do justice to The Value Machine, but you know I’m with it for the long term and so many months from now this January will represent nothing other than a small and largely irrelevant, blip.

As for the previously mentioned eSoccer Edge, I’m upping my bank a little for February, despite what has been an “interesting” introduction to the service.  I wrote about it in my previous post and since then, the ship has been steadied somewhat (although the weekend just gone was a losing one).  But after a pretty sharp drawdown, I ended January with a green position.  Still very early days for me with this one, but it is now something I’ve added to my armoury with a view to the longer term.

Here are the figures…

January 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 1,323.54pts, +138.33pts, ROI 10.45%, ROC 9.22%, Drawdown -29.45pts, Max DD -43.66pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 532pts, +442.66pts, ROI 83.2%, ROC 22.13%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -150.25pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 4,315pts, +76.54pts, ROI 1.77%, ROC 7.65%, Drawdown -50.49pts, Max DD -253.49pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 350pts, -118pts, ROI -33.71%, ROC -7.86%, Drawdown -205pts, Max DD -205pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,700pts, -146.14pts, ROI -8.59%, ROC -4.87%, Drawdown -160.2pts, Max DD -507.67pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 6,346pts, +149.84pts, ROI 2.36%, ROC 4.99%, Drawdown -62.07pts, Max DD -212.71pts

TOTAL: Staked 14,971.54pts, +560pts, ROI 3.74%, ROC 6.22%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -596.58pts

Two golf winners in two weeks, and Weekly Golf Value members should all have benefited from Harris English’s win Stateside (I got 75/1).  It’s amazing how frequently this happens, or at least seems to.  No winners for ages, and then two in consecutive weeks.

It’s been a great January for golf, and when bearing in mind we had a loser in a play off too, it could have been a month for the ages.  Still, I ain’t complaining.

I feel I’m in a good place too in terms of using the Golf Tracker to find my own value bets in each week’s fields, and then adding any official WGV picks providing I can find a value price at the bookmakers I can use.

Which is the opposite of how I’m feeling with the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker, which I have to profess has me in a state of flux.  I can’t quite settle upon a strategy.  I know the value is there.  I’m just not happy I’ve quite nailed a preferred way of how to exploit it.  With bonuses no longer being paid on Lucky 15s, I know I need (and have been) separating teams into Doubles, Trebles, Fourfolds, etc.  Another way would be to use the same methodology as for the Football Coupon Tracker – find seven teams at a value price and stick in a series of 35 Trebles.

It was a poor week for the EP Tracker for me anyhow, with no returns at all, and I’m finding it just a little irksome, truth be known.

I had a reader email in to ask if I could give a break down of the different Tools I use at Bookie Bashing, and as I’m always eager to please (just ask the Missus!) that is something I shall do.  So stay tuned for that!

Elsewhere with the BB Tools, it was a good weekend for using the Player Stats Tool and this month is running at a hot 45% ROI using this.  Overall, the various ‘Value Bets’ I’ve struck this month are ticking along very nicely (12.3% ROI), so providing a break down of what Tools I use and how might be useful to some.

It was a shocking Saturday for me with WinnerOddsFootball, with my entire profit built over the month to date being eradicated in one day’s worth of bets.  Not nice, and thankfully Sunday was a day that clawed some of those losses back.

So, next post I’ll talk about the Bookie Bashing Combo Tracker and how I look to use that, plus the Player Stats Tool.

2025 figures to date (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 1,133.21pts, +139.99pts, ROI 12.35%, ROC 9.33%, Drawdown -27.79pts, Max DD -43.66pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 532pts, +442.66pts, ROI 83.2%, ROC 22.13%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -150.25pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 3,775pts, -57.71pts, ROI -1.52%, ROC -5.77%, Drawdown -184.74pts, Max DD -253.49pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 350pts, -118pts, ROI -33.71%, ROC -7.86%, Drawdown -205pts, Max DD -205pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,570pts, -281.9pts, ROI -17.95%, ROC -9.39%, Drawdown -295.96pts, Max DD -507.67pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 5,759pts, +93.1pts, ROI 1.61%, ROC 3.1%, Drawdown -118.81pts, Max DD -212.71pts

TOTAL: Staked 13,524.21pts, +234.91pts, ROI 1.73%, ROC 2.61%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -596.58pts

First thing I’m going to say – and I want to emphasise this – is that what I am about to write is not criticism, nor me passing judgment.  It is merely my very limited experience to date, and it is around the fascinating new eSoccer Edge service.

I’ve only been trialling for a little more than a week, to very small level stakes.  Because of the high turnover nature of the service however, the total amount staked has soon built up and in fact it lies second only to WinnerOdds Football in how much I have staked on any one individual strategy or service this month.

There is no doubt that eSoccer Edge keeps its followers busy.  But it was very interesting to read that very recently, turnover levels had spiked.  The reason for the spike was a sudden burst in the number of goals being scored.  I’m not going to go into what might have caused that here, but the net result was a period of adaptation for the model.  From what followers were told, this is all part of an expected cycle.  One that is typified by some sharp losses before a period of stabilisation and then sustained profiteering as the model has adjusted but the markets have not.

It all made sense, to be honest, and I felt the approach I would take would be to simply carry on betting as normal.  I was already using small stakes after all (this is a trial), and if there was an uplift coming, I want to be on it from the start.

How have things fared since?

Well, I lost the profit I had previously made and then some, and I’ve not yet really started to make inroads into the losses.  I’m uncertain how long the cycle as it was described takes to progress.  Time will tell on that front.  What I would say though is that my personal betting on eSoccer Edge has stabilised and I’m breaking even today.  Yesterday was another losing day, which followed a more or less level day which followed the sharp losses suffered at the start of the week.

Read into all that, what you will!  I’m not sure there is too much to read into it to be honest.  Other than this does feel like a fairly volatile period.

I shall continue to follow with interest.  And obviously, will continue to report back here.

Elsewhere and there does appear to be something of a heater arriving for The Value Machine.  There’s one bar of the electric heater on and we’re just waiting for the other bars to kick in.

I’ve literally made a couple of quid using Winners Odds Football, but as ever the weekend’s activity will dictate how the week shapes up there.  And not much else to report.

See you Monday.

January figures to date (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 906.28pts, +137.2pts, ROI 15.13%, ROC 9.14%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -43.66pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 367pts, +263.26pts, ROI 71.73%, ROC 13.16%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -150.25pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 3,435pts, -123.46pts, ROI -3.59%, ROC -12.34%, Drawdown -253.49pts, Max DD -253.49pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 282pts, -50pts, ROI -17.73%, ROC -3.33%, Drawdown -137pts, Max DD -137pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,410pts, -320.86pts, ROI -22.75%, ROC -10.69%, Drawdown -334.92pts, Max DD -507.67pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 4,592pts, +178.66pts, ROI 3.89%, ROC 5.95%, Drawdown -33.25pts, Max DD -212.71pts

TOTAL: Staked 11,397.28pts, +98.77pts, ROI 0.86%, ROC 1.09%, Drawdown -113.56pts, Max DD -596.58pts

Saturday was a bloody nightmare.  Don’t ask, but far too many steps trudging to and from the nearest train station to not catch a train I needed to catch… My mood wasn’t the best, shall we say.  When I was a kid, there were endless jokes made about British Rail, all around the fact that unlike the Italians under Mussolini, no bloomin’ train ran on time.  Then we had privatisation.  Now I’m thinking the rail system should be re-nationalised because the service couldn’t get any more expensive or unreliable.  I got the money back on my tickets, but I missed out on being where I wanted to be.  I bear a grudge.

After what has been a poor start to 2025, a lovely golfing winner in the US last night was very welcome.  It got rid of the losses in one fell swoop, and pushed my nose just above the waterline.  An ROI of 0.87% is nothing to write home about, but it is something I’ll take quite happily after being a fair way down.

Sepp Straka – 55/1 – and taken from the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker last week.  He wasn’t on the Weekly Golf Value list, so this is one where it’s paid off to use the Tracker myself and it’s always gratifying when that is the case.  Straka was never really in any danger, starting the final round four clear and finishing it two clear but not at any point did he look as if he was going to give up the lead.  All very nice, and with the DPWT Tour also seeing three golfers place and providing a decent enough return on its own right, it was a darned fine golfing week.

It was a good week for new service eSoccer Edge too, with some steady gains and a decent ROC figure for the week.  However, that is really only half the story, and I’ll go into more detail in the post later this week.  Fascinating stuff, and I’ve enjoyed following thus far.

The Value Bets taken from the various Bookie Bashing Trackers and Tools are ticking along nicely.  The weekend was a bit win one/lose one, but overall an ROI of 11.22% is excellent.  A couple of very big value bets have been landed which at the risk of stating the obvious, have provided a real boost.

Ticking along is how I’d describe WinnerOdds Football’s week too, with losses on Saturday being grabbed back by profits on Sunday.  I kinda mentally compartmentalise this service as a steady earner.  High enough turnover, and an ROI of 5% or thereabouts consistently dripping profit into the bank.  And that’s exactly what it’s done so far.

Still waiting for “the heater” to arrive for The Value Machine (although a better day today, Monday) and a bit of a nondescript week for Sys Analyst.

So, I find myself in a much better position this Monday than I was last, or even through most of last week.  It would be fantastic if now I’ve been able to clamber out of the red, the rest of the month could add some real profit.  Let’s see if that happens.

2025 figures to date (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 848.54pts, +95.24pts, ROI 11.22%, ROC 6.34%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -43.66pts

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 367pts, +263.26pts, ROI 71.73%, ROC 13.16%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD -150.25pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 2,515pts, +89.28pts, ROI 3.54%, ROC 8.92%, Drawdown -40.75pts, Max DD -40.75pts

Sys Analyst: Staked 282pts, -50pts, ROI -17.73%, ROC -3.33%, Drawdown -137pts, Max DD -137pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,240pts, -489.7pts, ROI -39.49%, ROC -16.32%, Drawdown -503.76pts, Max DD -507.67pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 4,306pts, +162.35pts, ROI 3.77%, ROC 5.41%, Drawdown -19.43pts, Max DD -212.71pts

TOTAL: Staked 9,633.54pts, +84.4pts, ROI 0.87%, ROC 0.93%, Drawdown -68.22pts, Max DD -596.58pts