What do we think is the most important factor in profitable betting?

If I had to make a check list, it would look something like this…

• Having an edge.
• Patience.
• The ability to get on.
• Patience.
• An appropriately sized betting bank, ie. having sufficient funds so as not to carry too much risk.
• Patience.
• Extra dollop of patience, for when patience starts to wear a bit thin.

Normally, when talking about having patience in the context of gambling, we mean the ability to focus on the long term and refusing to allow drawdowns and extended losing runs to knock us off our path.  In other words, not giving up on something or someone with a proven edge, too soon.

Last week though, I felt I was able to demonstrate a different type of patience. Or at least, I was able to be patient when faced with a slightly different challenge.

The profits I’ve enjoyed from eSoccer Edge since the early part of this year have been nothing short of phenomenal.  After yesterday’s profits were added to the pot, I’m standing at just over 2,500 points profit at an ROI of 15.3%.  The issue last week was that I struggled to get many bets down at all.  Turnover suddenly slowed drastically as lines/prices on the bets changed almost immediately the Telegram notifications came through.  In short, it was a bit of a pain.

This week however, the situation has almost completely eased, and I’ve been able to get on over 95% of the picks that came through at the times I was happy to be betting.

Where I’m pleased with myself is that for most of last week, if the bets came through, I’d react in the same way I always do and look to jump on quickly and efficiently.  I must have tried and failed to get on well over 50 bets.

But I figured on two things.

One – this is an exceptionally well run service, and I knew the powers that be would be working hard on finding a solution.  And…

Two – the crashes might well be caused by someone staking big and looking to make a quick hit of profit and max out before the account would be shut down…but I was pretty confident if this was the case, it would be shut down.

I don’t know what’s ultimately happened, but I do know that this week normal service was very much resumed, and I’m 231.5 points better off than I was.  I wonder when the insanely hot streak this service has been enjoying will end, and patience will be tested in a more traditional way?

I’m going to give myself a little pat on the back. 🙂

Enjoy the sun, folks!  See you next week.

July 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 218pts, +115pts, ROI 52.75%, ROC 7.66%

eSoccer Edge: Staked 1,440pts, +209.5pts, ROI 14.54%, ROC 13.96%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 700pts, 293.18pts, ROI 41.88%, ROC 19.54%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 373.4pts, +51.32pts, ROI 13.74%, ROC 3.42%.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 2,155pts, +172.05pts, ROI 7.98%, ROC 11.47%.

TOTAL: Staked 4,886.4pts, +860.05pts, ROI 17.6%, ROC 11.46%

The first week of July has been kind, profits have come in very nicely, and as a result a new profit high has been reached for the year to date.

An overall ROI for the week of 24.59% and bank growth of 7.32% tells the story.  July has seen a very strong start.  And yet, there’s an inescapable sense of what could have been…again…after watching the end of the John Deere Classic golf tournament last night.

Weekly Golf Value generated an ROI for the week of 52%, but in what seems to have become a theme recently, one of our players threw away a strong position, and ended up losing in a play-off.  There was a time we couldn’t lose a play off.  Now we can’t win one.  Having said that, our man Grillo missed a putt to win it on the last and avoid the need for any extra holes, by a matter of an inch or two.  I guess that sums up the very fine margins between winning, and winning big.

It was the horses last week that produced much of the profit, however.

A couple of nice winning multiples were landed for Tilt The Odds, although still waiting for a biggie.  Keep hitting the crossbar as far as that is concerned, but nevertheless bank growth of 10.76% represents a fine week.

And then we had The Value Machine Exchange Profit enjoy a great day last Thursday, but subsequently give some back.  I’m quite looking forward to getting really stuck in with this come the autumn.  At the moment, I’m not able to get a fair percentage of the bets down, particularly at weekends.  This will change when the cricket season comes to an end, but in the meantime and despite a bit of clawback, bank growth of 12.1% on the week is excellent stuff!

And a similar story for SharpBetting Football, with a couple of fantastically profitable days followed by a bit of a clawback by the books.  But very healthy ROI (8.68%) and ROC (6.28%) have meant that July is already looking much better than June was.

Just hints that the line/price movement issues recently experienced by eSoccer Edge have been got on top of.  I don’t want to speak to soon, but there are promising signs and I’ve been able to get on a few more bets towards the end of the week than I was at the start.  Let’s see what happens this week.

July 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 218pts, +115pts, ROI 52.75%, ROC 7.66%

eSoccer Edge: Staked 300pts, -3pts, ROI -1%, ROC -0.2%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 460pts, +181.6pts, ROI 39.47%, ROC 12.1%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 170.2pts, +161.51pts, ROI 94.89%, ROC 10.76%.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 1,085pts, 94.2pts, ROI 8.68%, ROC 6.28%.

TOTAL: Staked 2,233.2pts, +549.31pts, ROI 24.59%, ROC 7.32%

First of all, a huge apology for being a day later with this post than had been planned and promised.  We had to say goodbye yesterday to the faithful mutt who, at 16 years of age had chased her last squirrel, bless her.

Without further ado, let’s take a look back at June’s betting and we’ll start with the main figures:

Staked 13,890.9pts, +720.11pts, ROI 5.18%, ROC 9.6%.

The target for each month is to look to hit bank growth of 10%, so the first thing to say is that at 9.6% ROC, June has been a decent enough month.  However, a week before the end that ROC figure was up near the 12-13% marker, and the ROI near the 10% line.  The last few days of June were anything but “blazing”.

My biggest overall drawdown this year has reached a depth of -467.45pts, and that was hit this Sunday just gone.  A decent Monday from eSoccer Edge has eaten into that, but it shows how the last week has been a bit of a struggle.

Winner of ‘Service of the Month’ was yet again, for the third consecutive month, eSoccer Edge.  Its figures were frankly, phenomenal…

Staked 3,480pts, +922.25pts, ROI 26.5%, ROC 61.48%.

Not sure I’ve ever had 60%+ bank growth from any one service in just a month’s worth of betting.

I am forcing myself to remember that 26.5% ROI is waaaaaaayyy over the expected long term norm, and as hot as the service has been running, there will come a time when it runs cold.  The other issue is that the speed with which lines and prices are now moving has severely curtailed the number of bets I’ve been able to get on.  I’m really hoping this can be got on top of, and am very willing to give time to see this happen.  The fear is that this becomes a service that burns ridiculously bright but only for a short time before burning itself out.  But I have total belief and trust in the management team to be doing everything possible to get on top of the problem.

A very poor last weekend across three tournaments meant that a fairly sizeable chunk was taken from the profits that Weekly Golf Value had amassed.  Despite a winner in June, it will be a month that goes down as a “what might have been”.  A number of close finishes and players throwing away seeming victory meant it could have been an absolute stormer.  Still, I refuse to complain.  Even with the last weekend’s disappointment, June finished with a perfectly respectable ROI and overall across 2025, my ROI is just a shade under 30%.

The third profitable service in June was The Value Machine Exchange Profit.  Again, a bit of a dip towards the end of the month meant it didn’t finish at the sort of performance level it looked like it might at one point.

The exact same comments apply to Tilt The Odds and I’m waiting patiently for that one bet that transforms how it looks.

The one disappointment was SmartBetting Football which followed an extremely hot May with a cold June.  It was never in profit, reached a fairly sizeable drawdown, but over the last couple of days started to process of clawing those back.  It will.

And let’s not forget where this service is for me overall.  Still on a 693pt profit and an overall ROI of 4.72%, which in a high turnover service isn’t at all shabby.

June 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 1,616pts, +133.04pts, ROI 8.23%, ROC 8.86%

eSoccer Edge: Staked 3,480pts, +922.25pts, ROI 26.5%, ROC 61.48%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 1,890pts, +97.92pts, ROI 5.18%, ROC 6.52%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 820.4pts, -108.45pts, ROI -13.21%, ROC -7.23%.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 6,006pts, -320pts, ROI -5.32%, ROC -21.33%.

TOTAL: Staked 13,890.9pts, +720.11pts, ROI 5.18%, ROC 9.6%

Just a note to say I’m pushing back the normal Monday post to Tuesday.  One more betting day for June, so tomorrow a full monthly review.

See you then.

A profitable weekend and on we go, pushing up further the high profit line for month and year to date.

Having said that, it was very much another case of ‘What might have been’ for Weekly Golf Value.

These are my figures for the year to date:

Staked 3,195pts, +1,429.96pts, ROI 44.75%, ROC 95.33%.

Those are the figures of a service really hitting its straps and in fine form.  And yet this month alone we’ve had Sam Burns miss a 5ft putt to win and then lose in a play off, and last night Tommy Fleetwood enjoying a two shot lead deep into the final round only to bogey two of the last three holes and be overtaken at the last by Keegan Bradley.  Bradley had looked as if his race had been run until sinking a birdie putt on the 15th from what looked like about 200 yards away!

So it’s fair to say that despite it’s fine form, I couldn’t help myself in thinking last night, ‘and here is what you and WGV could have won!’

And until now, I haven’t even mentioned that Russell Henley had also been backed and finished tied for 2nd with Fleetwood just one shot behind Bradley.

I used to think that Darts could be the most frustrating sport to watch when you have a financial involvement.  Seeing your man miss three darts at a double to win the match and your bet, by a combined distance of about 5 millimetres could be a tough watch.  But after last night, I reckon golf can compete in the hide-behind-the-sofa element of betting.

Friday was a bad day for SharpBetting Football but almost the exact amount lost that day was made back across Saturday and Sunday, so no big drama.  It does feel that the drawdown is beginning to drag on a bit now, but I imagine that is simply because last month was so spectacularly successful by comparison.

And finally, I was only able to make one Tilt The Odds bet on Sunday – a Trixie.  Two winners and a non-runner.  What was I thinking when I saw the result?

I’ll tell you, shall I?

It was very much a case of: “And here’s what you could have won…”

June 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 1,184pts, +489.04pts, ROI 41.3%, ROC 32.6%

eSoccer Edge: Staked 3,100pts, +749.25pts, ROI 24.16%, ROC 49.95%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 1,280pts, +138.46pts, ROI 10.81%, ROC 9.23%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 612.6pts, +19.29pts, ROI 3.14%, ROC 1.28%.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 4,239.5pts, -310.72pts, ROI -7.32%, ROC -20.71%.

TOTAL: Staked 10,494.6pts, +1,077.67pts, ROI 10.26%, ROC 14.36%

Three profitable days from Monday-Thursday betting and the high profit point for both the month and the year to date continues to rise.

Leading the way again is eSoccer Edge with a further 242 points profit in this time.  As long as control is maintained in terms of prices/lines not disappearing too quickly, this is a phenomenal service.  So far so good on that point, and I get the strong impression that behind the service is a team determined not only to provide profits for its members, but a service that can be followed without any issues.  Sure, you have to be fast, but more often than not, not ridiculously so.  I’ve found that by being at my laptop when the bets come through, if I don’t delay, I’m usually fine in getting on.  Occasionally the line will change in a blink, but not often is this the case.

The impact on the whole portfolio that eSoccer Edge has had is fundamental.  The sheer consistency we’ve seen so far means that I’ve been enjoying a lot more profitable days than not and it feels very much as if the overall variance has been smoothed somewhat.  It may be that there are days when the actual amount of profit made is negligible, but the overall effect is that it makes things feel a lot more serene.

Of course having written the above, it’s almost inevitable that everything will take a sudden twist.  eSoccer Edge is not going to be immune to a significant downswing.  The laws of probability dictate that.  I guess you can run from it, but you can never hide or escape it.

Other than that, not much to report.  So we’ll leave it there for today, go and enjoy the weekend sunshine, and come back on Monday.

June 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 1,008pts, +418.64pts, ROI 41.53%, ROC 27.9%

eSoccer Edge: Staked 3,040pts, +699.25pts, ROI 23%, ROC 46.61%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 1,120pts, +117.88pts, ROI 10.52%, ROC 7.85%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 541.6pts, -7.01pts, ROI -1.29%, ROC -0.46%.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 3,535pts, -310.98pts, ROI -8.79%, ROC -20.73%.

TOTAL: Staked 9,323.1pts, +910.13pts, ROI 9.76%, ROC 12.13%

A good weekend all round pushes up the profit for the month to a new high, and for the whole portfolio since starting in its present format.  The ROI for June now stands at 10.4%, showing bank growth of 10.1%.

The losses suffered during a bad day at the office last Thursday for eSoccer Edge have essentially been recouped already and the service remains leading the way in terms of bank growth for June, but only just.  Three placed golfers for Weekly Golf Value at the US Open means that the Bookie Bashing-based service is only a sliver behind in second place.

You may remember that last week Sam Burns let us down by missing a 5ft putt to win a play off and make the weekend one to remember, having already enjoyed a victory on the DPWT Tour?  So this week I was thinking that Burns very much owed us one going into the final round of the US Open two shots in the lead.  That lead became three early on in the round but the muppet then went on to putt like a wally and end up in the places instead.  He really does owe us one now!

The Value Machine Exchange Profit continues to quietly build a decent month with the ROI after the weekend standing at 14.1%.  More please, as previous losses are clawed back.

Same comment applies for Tilt The Odds which again, came very close to a monster pay out with two double digit winners in a Trixie.  Had that landed just that bet would have landed a profit equal to 75% bank growth.  Shoulda, coulda, woulda, I guess, but we know it’s just a matter of time.  In the meantime, an ROI of 17.4% for the month to date is more than respectable.

And finally it’s nice to see a couple of profitable days for SharpBetting Football.  So far June has been a struggle and the opposite to May when it seemed that every day was a profitable one.  But a decent Friday and Sunday hopefully signals a turnaround.

So all in all, since the start of last month things have gone swimmingly.  An overall ROI of 9.1% is great, but bank growth of 47.7% through this period is exceptional.  Long may it continue.

June 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 1,008pts, +418.64pts, ROI 41.53%, ROC 27.9%

eSoccer Edge: Staked 2,100pts, +457.25pts, ROI 21.77%, ROC 30.48%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 920pts, +131.63pts, ROI 14.3%, ROC 8.77%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 407.4pts, +70.96pts, ROI 17.41%, ROC 4.73%.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 2,882.5pts, -316.09pts, ROI -10.96%, ROC -21.07%.

TOTAL: Staked 7,317.9pts, +763.69pts, ROI 10.43%, ROC 10.18%

A week that has essentially broken even.

There have been two things happen though, that were each to some extent, overdue.

Firstly, a bad day for eSoccer Edge.  It has been galloping along like a good ‘un for some time, and quite frankly the pace was always going to slacken.  Yesterday (Thursday) saw it drop -158 points for me, one of the worst (although still not that bad) days I’ve experienced with the service.  But when we see that the ROI for June to date remains as high as 16.89% – still above the long term expected rate of return – then some context becomes apparent.

The second notable event was a good winning day for Tilt The Odds, which again, came yesterday.  It was a good day with over 155 points being garnered, but it was so close to being an outstanding one.  Within a Lucky 15 three winners was almost four when the fourth finished in second place, losing out by just a neck.  Had that gone the other way, the bet would have landed over 1,000 points profit.  This is the thing with TTO – just got to keep plodding away until the big one hits.  It’ll come.

Other than that and The Value Machine Exchange Profit continues to tick along for me this month, running as it is at around the 10% ROI marker.  And SharpBetting Football continues its recent downturn, and as things stand, is the only service in negative territory for the month.  That can change in two shakes of a gnat’s tail though.

Not much else to report, so fingers crossed you all have a good weekend, and I’ll see you on the other side.

June 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 798pts, +319.14pts, ROI 40%, ROC 21.3%

eSoccer Edge: Staked 1,780pts, +300.75pts, ROI 16.89%, ROC 20.05%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 660pts, +67.33pts, ROI 10.2%, ROC 4.48%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 270.6pts, +24.71pts, ROI 9.13%, ROC 1.64%.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 2,090pts, -375.5pts, ROI -17.96%, ROC -25.03%.

TOTAL: Staked 5,598.6pts, +337.73pts, ROI 6.03%, ROC 4.5%

We used to win play-offs to decide the winner of golf tournaments.  I remember going through a ridiculous streak, during which if a golfer Weekly Golf Value had tipped ended up contesting a play off, you could calculate your winnings before they’d teed off at the first extra hole!  Sadly, that doesn’t seem to be the case any more.  Sam Burns last night, had a putt to win the tournament when playing off against Ryan Fox, missed by a matter of centimetres, and then went on to lose to Fox on what seemed like the 10th extra hole they played.  A case of so near, and yet so far, which is often the way in golf betting.

Am I a greedy man?  Yes.  Yes, I am.  For earlier in the day, Connor Syme, put up by WGV and backed at 150/1, won the KLM Open in Holland.  A fantastic win which of course meant that a victory for Burns that night would have landed the second double-winning Sunday in a month!

Look, I’m not complaining.  WGV is going through a hot streak at the moment and we love to see it.  But it’s hard not to feel just a wee pang of regret at coming so close to another red letter day.  I feel for those who may have been on and have backed Burns win only.

Anyway, the profit from the golf has pushed the month’s total profit to a high water mark, and the year to date figure too.  I’m now running at 8.8% ROI for the year and so I can only say that things are going very well at the moment.

eSoccer Edge continues on its merry way, but I’ve got to be sensible enough to realise that it’s June ROI to date of 30.7% is totally unsustainable and will head south, probably sooner rather than later.

The only dark spot at present is the current drawdown from last month’s high performer, SharpBetting Football.  The drawdown that started towards the very end of May has now reached the equivalent to 26.5% of the bank allocated to it.  However, as always, context is required.  It is still running at an ROI level of 7.3% from the time I started, with bank growth of 49.2%, which is excellent.  Nothing to worry about, and just a case of keep putting on the bets, and wait for things to head up again.

June 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 798pts, +319.14pts, ROI 40%, ROC 21.3%

eSoccer Edge: Staked 1,160pts, +356.75pts, ROI 30.75%, ROC 23.4%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 460pts, +47.57pts, ROI 10.3%, ROC 3.2%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 184pts, -100.97pts, ROI -54.9%, ROC -6.7%.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 1,484pts, -273.1pts, ROI -18.4%, ROC -18.2%.

TOTAL: Staked 4,086pts, +350.69pts, ROI 8.6%, ROC 4.7%

In the first six weeks of using SharpBetting Football’s model – the one that is used to derive the David’s Daily bets – I made 70% bank growth.  That is possibly the best start I’ve ever had to using any service.

The last seven days however, I’ve seen a loss equating to 17.25% of the bank.  Not disastrous by any means, but I do wonder how differently I’d felt about the efficacy of the model had I started seven days ago and had missed out on all the profit that preceded it?

Now look, I’m experienced enough to know now that if my stint with SB had got off to a sticky start I wouldn’t have batted an eyelid.  But go back a few years, and the last six days would at the very least have had me running through all sorts of questions in my head.  Is it worth the subscription cost?  What if previous good results was just positive variance and in fact the edge might have gone, if it had ever existed at all?  Is my betting bank allocated to this service big enough?  Should I drop my stake size, just until I see an upturn in results?  Etcetera, etcetera…

As it is, I knew that SB Football had got off to an absolute flier for me, was running ridiculously hot at times, and that before too long it was likely that I’d experience something of a dip to start to bring performance levels closer in line with what had been seen historically.  And I guess that has happened/is happening now.  Now we see if this is to be an extended drawdown that will drag results below the expected performance line before changing course again, this time upwards.  Only time will tell, but regardless, I know at least I’m going to stay level headed about it all and just see where the ride takes me.  As it is, a run of six consecutive losing days for SB Football for me (others using the model will be taking different bets of course, and with that, getting different results) was brought to a halt by recording a small profit yesterday.

The losses via SB Football contributed to experiencing the worst drawdown I’ve suffered for three months this week, but a strong performance from eSoccer Edge and The Value Machine Exchange Profit over the last couple of days has just eradicated those losses and pushed me up to a new profit high at time of writing (Friday morning).  The drawdown wasn’t that deep (-292 points) and has been quickly clawed back.  Let’s see what the weekend brings, although I can say right now, it won’t be much if anything at all on Saturday.

Have a great weekend, whatever it is you’re doing.

May 2025 (stakes normalised)…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 344pts, -131.4pts, ROI -38.2%, ROC -8.8%

eSoccer Edge: Staked 920pts, +264.75pts, ROI 28.8%, ROC 17.7%

The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 370pts, +137.57pts, ROI 37.2%, ROC 9.2%

Tilt The Odds: Staked 121.8pts, -79.8pts, ROI -65.5%, ROC -5.3%.

SharpBetting Football: Staked 1,104pts, -135.01pts, ROI -12.2%, ROC -9%.

TOTAL: Staked 2,859.8pts, +57.41pts, ROI 2%, ROC 0.8%