Time to outline plans for 2025.
Let’s start with the Bet Diary itself. I think moving forward I’ll try to get two posts out each week, one on the Monday and one on the Friday. There may be the odd week when I change the days, but the idea is that each Monday I’ll provide a review of the weekend’s betting and provide year to date figures. Then on the Friday, a review of the midweek betting and the month to date figures. That feels quite neat. I hope you agree.
As for what I’m going to be betting on and how, well there’s not too much that’s changing to be honest. Just a bit of a tweak here and there.
Starting with what remains exactly the same for 2025 that was for 2024, and we have Sys Analyst. Last year wasn’t the service’s best, but nor was it bad. A simple case of just keeping calm and carrying on through 2025 with this one, I feel.
Same for golf betting, with my independent use of the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to the fore, supplemented by additional Weekly Golf Value picks if I’ve not already backed them and I can get a value price/place terms at a book I have available to me (which isn’t always the case).
My method is to use the Golf Tracker to identify value bets at around midday on the Wednesday, which is usually half an hour to an hour before the WGV email comes through. There is usually a strong overlap between the players I back and those put up by WGV, as you might expect. For example, at this week’s Sentry Championship event, I had bet on six of the eight listed WGV golfers before the WGV email arrived. By getting on players slightly earlier, I should both avoid any price drops caused by WGV members, and as far as the bookmakers are concerned, I am not part of any discernible pattern of certain golfers being backed by numerous accounts within a small time window. To be honest, I don’t think this last factor is really much of an issue, not at midday/early afternoon on a Wednesday. If the bets were being put on by numerous WGV customers as soon as the markets have been formed, then maybe. But by early Wednesday afternoon, the markets have matured.
One thing I am thinking about is perhaps leaving out the LIV Tour competitions this year. For golf bettors, the sample size from LIV events remains very small, so I’m not saying that to omit them from my plans is a direct consequence of the poor results across the LIV events I endured through 2024. My feelings around the Tour though, are that the dynamics differ from that of the DPWT and PGA Tours. I question whether the competitive motivation of many of the leading players in these competitions reach the levels we see in those competing on the two ‘main’ Tours, and do I need to be putting down money on sportsmen who might not be that bothered?
There are other question marks I have about LIV and its dynamics. I guess I’m in a place where I’m thinking there’s plenty of DPWT and PGA Tour action to get stuck into, and that as things stand I don’t need to be putting money on something I have questions over. Cue WGV cleaning up on the LIV Tour…
Now we come to a couple of tweaks.
WinnerOdds Football has done me proud the last couple of months, and I’ve decided to invest more money and increase the bank committed to it by a third. WO themselves advocate – as do others I know – setting the bank to be automatically updated on a bet by bet basis. I have no doubt this is the “best” and most efficient way to follow, with the stake size growing in correlation to the bank. However, to fit my circumstances better, I set the bank to a fixed amount doing so to prevent my stake sizes reaching a point where they are bound to attract the attention of trading teams.
Who knows if it’s better to simply raise stakes and the bank as quickly as possible to make as much money as possible before the accounts are restricted, or whether a more conservative approach means accounts remaining viable for longer, therefore allowing a greater total profit to be made over time? I don’t. But by staying relatively conservative, I can still make the sort of money from WO Footie that I want to, and by mixing their bets up with a range of others covering a variety of sports and markets, I’m hoping to avoid unwanted attention for an extended period. It’s largely worked so far, but as we know, that dreaded email can arrive at any time.
There is a review in the offing so I’m not going to say too much about the new The Value Machine related services right now. I have been following for a month, and although profitability wasn’t outstanding during this period, I’ve seen enough to commit properly to it. The bank for TVM, like WinnerOdds Football, has been raised, and it is these two services that together will provide the bulk of my turnover for 2025. Betfair-only for me with this too, so I know at least that if things go according to plan, this is a sustainable angle.
Whilst being mindful of time constraints, I fully intend to identify a lot of value betting opportunities using the various Bookie Bashing Tools and Trackers. I think instead of calling these Value Bets as I have done previously, I’ll record these going forward under the label of Bookie Bashing Tools.
What will these bets include?
- The Combo Bet Tracker (those with an indicated EV of 110+).
- Darts 180s Tool.
- Player Stats Tool.
- NFL/Rugby xTouchdowns/xTries Tool.
- Enhanced Specials on the Exchanges.
- Early Pay Out Tracker.
I’m changing the way I use the Early Pay Out Tracker this year. 2024 was all about betting in Lucky 15s, but as one book withdrew bonuses from such bets, there can be no question that the edge was eroded somewhat. However, bonuses are still paid on successful doubles, trebles, fourfolds, etc., and my way of utilising the Tracker will reflect this. I’m also looking to it to bet some Singles on teams perceived as carrying value, which play in one of the top European leagues. I’m not expecting to make a load of money from doing this, but what I am looking to do is add some decent sized single bets in major markets without losing money (over time). Why? To help camouflage the bets going down with a bigger edge! All part of the (hopefully) long game.
Anyway, overall turnover from the EP Tracker is going to be significantly down from 2024’s level, and as such I’m going to include the figures within the ‘Bookie Bashing Tools’ category. Obviously as time passes, I’ll write about which bet types are performing well and those not so well, and will give figures for each from time to time.
So there we have it. Thoughts and plans for 2025. We all know about the ‘Best laid plans…’ etc., but as we’re sitting here right now, this is how 2025 is shaping up. I wonder what changes might be needed before this time next year? I guess we’ll find out.
I’ll leave you with 2025 figures to date (all two days of them!), and will see you on the other side of the weekend. Have a good one.
2025 Figures to Date (stakes normalised):
Bookie Bashing Tools: Staked 135.25pts, +6.27pts, ROI 5.69%, ROC 0.41%, Drawdown -6.27pts, Max DD -6.27pts
Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: n/a
Sys Analyst: Staked 21pts, -21pts, ROI -100%, ROC -1.05%, Drawdown -21pts, Max DD -21pts
The Value Machine: Staked 240pts, -84.75pts, ROI -35.31%, ROC -2.82%, Drawdown -99.61pts, Max DD -99.61pts
WinnerOdds Football: Staked 511pts, +16.83pts, ROI 3.29%, ROC 0.56%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 5.19pts
TOTAL: Staked 907.25pts, -81.22pts, ROI -8.95%, ROC -0.9%, Drawdown -83.86pts, Max DD -83.86pts