I was all set up to write a review of November to publish today, and then the weekend happened.  Or more accurately, in the early hours of Sunday morning the golf tournament in Australia came to a conclusion and I had to put those original monthly review plans on hold.

Why?  Because with Ryggs Johnstone – a player I must admit to not ever having heard of – Weekly Golf Value had provided me with a 75/1 winner and by far the biggest return I’ve had from one single bet all year.  The November review can wait a day or two.

There’s quite a story here.  One that I need to remember when things aren’t going well and variance is showing me its more menacing face.

As you know if you read this column regularly, I have started to use the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to find my own bets each week rather than blindly following the golfers put up by WGV.  As a rule, I look to get on before the WGV email comes through but only by 30 minutes to an hour or so.  As a result, generally speaking I’ll be on four or five of the golfers that are listed amongst those to back by WGV.  There is always a fair crossover, although I tend to end up backing a few more players in each tournament and covering a greater proportion of the field in terms of win probability (c.20% compared to WGV’s c.15%, give or take).

This week however, after using the Tracker, I’d only found five golfers I wanted to back.  Five golfers who fit into my self-imposed parameters to qualify as a bet.  Parameters that includes considerations of price, level of +EV, etc.  More to the point, the win probability covered by these five players, according to the Tracker, was a mere 5.3%.  Not enough.

So when the WGV email came through, I had a look to see if there were any golfers I could easily add to my list.  As it happens, four of the five I’d identified myself were on the WGV rota too.  Three weren’t.  Checking the Tracker, one of the three wasn’t value at any book I could use, but two were – Victor Perez and…yes, you’ve guessed it…Ryggs Johnstone.

The terms of my Johnstone bet were different to WGV’s who were tipping it at 100/1 and 150/1.  The best value I could secure – and it was considerable value – was at 75/1 but the place terms were more favourable.  Big value, big stake….BIG WIN!!!!!

Did I simply miss Johnstone when I scoured the Tracker first time around?  Or did it become value in the half an hour or so between my search for bets and the WGV email coming through?  I don’t know.  What I do know is that if I’d found more bets on my initial search, I’d not have backed Johnstone.  For once, the Gambling Gods were in a good mood, and had smiled down on me.

With the bet settling in the early hours of Sunday morning, this will go down in my December figures.  Meaning November was a bit of a struggle and a month I found pretty tough going at times.  More on that in the next post though, when I really will get that Review done and dusted.  For now, I’m just going to ask my wife to peel some grapes for me, bring me wine and rare delicacies for me to enjoy, basking in the warm glow that comes from the knowledge that the new month’s golf betting ROI sits at exactly 1000%.

*Added the “(to date)” into the title because, well, you just never know…

We’re almost at another month end, so as far as figures and progress is concerned, I’m putting that to one side today and will provide a full review early next week.

The BBC’s Royal Charter – which is effectively the longest mission statement you have ever not read – lays out the aims of the Corporation as “serving all audiences through the provision of impartial, high quality and distinctive output and services which inform, educate and entertain”.*

I can’t help but think that it’s a shame that whoever the person was that penned such lofty ambitions, worked for the BBC and not the SBC!  Because frankly, that bit above in italics kinda does, to my mind at least, sum up what the SBC is constantly seeking to do.  And you know what?  I think the SBC achieves and hits those KPIs very well.**

From my own experience of writing SBC Reviews, I can tell you that impartiality is right at the forefront of what is produced.  It would be a little big-headed of me to claim the next two qualities can be attached to my output, but having read my colleague Josh’s excellent analysis and review of the free Betfair SP-focused service that was released earlier this week, I can unashamedly say that there is right there, one fine example of a review that ticks the “high quality and distinctive output” boxes.

And you know what, Josh’s review demonstrates just how much the SBC strives to “inform, educate and entertain”.  With new metrics and angles of analysis introduced to the Review structure, you are without any vestige of doubt informed and educated.  And so, “ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED!?!” (Russell Crowe, 2000).

But look.  This isn’t an advert for the SBC.  What it is however, is a personalised note of appreciation to the SBC for what it does and the positive impact it has had on me and my betting.  And the reason I felt like writing about this today is rooted in some comments I’ve read this week within a Discord channel that alarmed me in the level of naivety they showed, but also reminded me that I was once as naive.

The comments that raised my eyebrows were around a pronounced desire to – and I’m paraphrasing – “just find winners”.  I actually feel that the poster, from other posts, does understand the essential ingredient in the recipe that bakes the cake of profit from the heat of the oven that is the bookmaker (Christ, that’s a desperate reach for a suitable analogy – forgive me!) but still, it made me cringe (in the same way that last analogy made you, I would imagine).  Is it a coincidence to find such a comment within a Channel run by a service that provides bets that are very high variance by nature?  I don’t know, but you see where I’m coming from.

What really made me shudder though was it brought memories flooding back of my own, pre-SBC efforts to bet profitably, which basically consisted of going for one newspaper Racing Correspondent’s nap, seeing the nag was about 11/10 or 5/4 in the betting, and being convinced that if a paid journalist was tipping it and the horse was at that price, well then it simply had to win.  I imagine the likes of *cough* Tom Brownlee *cough* and *cough* Kieran Ward *cough* started along very similar lines.***

And then I was found by the SBC, as it were, and my betting life was spun right round baby, spun round like a record baby (click on the link – that’s me with the hair!  As you can see, I was quite the mover).

And that’s what I want all people who bet to do.  Be informed, be educated, and perhaps be entertained.  But most of all get a bit savvy and hit those dastardly bookmakers where it hurts.  There’s so much great information out there nowadays that there is no reason why anyone who wants to take their betting seriously shouldn’t be able to do so profitably.  It’ll never be easy.  The mental challenges, the difficulties in getting on over an extended period of time, and I suppose nowadays actually getting paid out can mean jumping over a number of unfair and unjust obstacles and through some hoops that in any just world wouldn’t exist…but it is all possible.

And there endeth the sermon.

Right then.  Have a great weekend, folks.  November review next week.  See you then.

*Not sure how having Robbie Savage and Chris Sutton on 606 fits in with this, but still.

**As Pete has stated on more than one occasion, I have full editorial freedom on what I write in these pages, so this isn’t me aiming for a rise!  If I wasn’t at liberty to write what I wanted, I’m not sure I’d get away with so many gratuitous references to The Arsenal! 

***I’m one million percent sure that actually, they didn’t!

Looking at my figures, by the time the weekend had been accounted for I had placed 61 Lucky 15s made up of football teams highlighted as +EV by the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker.  By the 24th of the month, I would have aimed to have struck 96.  In other words I’m roughly a third down on anticipated turnover.  The reason is the stupid, mind numbingly boring, who-gives-a-sh*t international break. If you want to know why I’m really so anti-international football outside of the major Championship Finals, this is one big reason.  They can seriously impact my turnover, and therefore in the long run, profits!

Value Bets are also notably down, so it’s not just the EP Tracker being impacted here.

Moving on before I get too worked up and hot under the collar…

A bit of a recovery for the month launched by said EP Tracker with one L15 seeing three teams at very good odds coming up with the wins, including Tottenham at City.  Very mixed feelings about that one, got to admit.  Funny hearing some football commentators/journalists doing a quick turnaround from dismissing Sp*rs as a flop after their home defeat to Ipswich last time out to now proclaiming them as favourites for a Top 4 spot.  Talk about not being able to contextualize.  I imagine Sp*rs are somewhere in the middle – not a flop and a team that might challenge for the Top 4.  But then that’s the mainstream football media today – I guess being rational doesn’t garner clicks.

It was nice to see using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker pay off with a winner with Maverick McNealy landing odds of 30/1 over in the US.  By using the Tracker I’m (generally) backing more golfers albeit to slightly lower stakes than I would by simply following the Weekly Golf Value picks.  The hope is that I don’t sacrifice too much by ROI but do smoothen out slightly the pathway to profit.  McNealy wasn’t showing exceptional perceived positive value and in fact carried less than all but one of the other golfers I backed in the tournament.  It must have been over 105% as that is where I draw a line for what I bet on, but it would have been close and at relatively short odds the stake wasn’t a heavy one.  But it’s a winner I wouldn’t otherwise have had, a bit of profit on the week instead of a loss, and it tides me over nicely waiting for the more heavily staked, bigger priced winner that will inevitably come.

Not too much to report elsewhere.  WinnerOdds Football had another solid week, and in fact enjoyed an exceptional Saturday, but sadly a poor Sunday undid much, but not all, of the previous day’s good work.

November Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 915pts, -213pts, roi -23.27%, roc -14.2%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 513pts, +43.25pts, roi 8.43%, roc 2.88%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 1,019.15pts, +535.18pts, roi 52.51%, roc 26.75%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 590.07pts, +26.18pts, roi 4.43%, roc 2.61%.

The Value Machine: Staked 2,510pts, -170.88pts, roi -6.8%, roc -11.39%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 3,713pts, +346.37pts, roi 9.32%, roc 23.09%.

Trial Service: Staked 1,153.88pts, -54.45pts, roi -4.71%, roc -3.63%

TOTAL: Staked 10,414.1pts, +512.65pts, roi 4.92%, roc 5.69%.

I had been intending to post an update to the figures but to be honest this week has been so slow as to make doing this a bit silly.  Let’s just say it’s been really quiet and I’m about a tenner on the week.  Woo Hoo!

The second half of an Interlull break is quieter than the first, and I tend to forget this.  At least with internationals to be played, there might be some Value Bets to be found.  Very few this time, for me anyway.  But then when the internationals have all been done and dusted as they were earlier this week, then there is other than horse racing, very, very little for me to bet on.  And guess what.  This week saw the first meetings of the winter abandoned due to snow and frost, and so turnover there hasn’t exactly been busy.

Thankfully, it’s all about to change.  I’ve updated my FPL team, and that tells us that proper football is back, and with it should come more betting opportunities.  Thank the Good Dennis Bergkamp above for that!

Meanwhile, has anybody joined the “new” (it’s not really) BlueSky platform?  There seems to have been something of an exodus from X, and frankly I’m not surprised.  It has felt in recent months that it has been impossible to scroll through X without being bombarded by videos showing violence and physical abuse, expressions of far right wing-oriented hatred, or questionable propositions from various young ladies who don’t seem that interested in the Arsenal or betting.

I’ve got to admit too, that I’ve kinda been put off actually using Twitter/X as a result.  Anyway, BlueSky feels a lot like Twitter used to back in the day.  Messages are posted chronologically on your timeline, easy to limit only to people you actually follow, and looking at other’s messages it actually feels people are being respectful to each other.  Strange, but true!

So, I’m gonna dip my toes into the BlueSky water (air?) and start posting the odd thought up there over the weekend, now there’s actually going to be some sport that might be worth commenting on.  If you fancy, give me a follow at @rowanday.bsky.social (an imaginative handle, I know), and I’ll follow right back.  Promise.

Right.  Let’s get back to actually placing a decent number of bets again.  May the Force be with you all this weekend, and I’ll see you the other side…

This past week, or more accurately this past weekend, has stopped the bleeding somewhat.  With no major league domestic football, it’s been relatively quiet.  Take WinnerOdds Football.  Turnover this weekend was just 45% of what it was last.  Let’s just say I’ll be more than pleased when this latest Interlull is over, and the realisation that we don’t have another deadly tedious international break until the spring fills me with joy.

Talking of WinnerOdds Football, it has been the very epitome of consistency this month so far, and again was easily my best performer last week, despite the vastly reduced number of picks.  It feels that almost every day in November has seen a new profit high reached – it hasn’t, but it really does feel like it has! – and we end the weekend still pushing forward.  The last seven days have performed at an ROI of 24.5%, about five times as high as I aim for over the long term, so I’m hoping that as turnover increases this week, we don’t see a dip.

It’s a little ironic that the service I’m trialling, which has a very high variance strategy, has actually performed as if the opposite were true.  A midweek that produced either a very small daily profit or loss, and then a Saturday/Sunday that generated a decent enough profit but nothing approaching spectacular meant that this felt like following a tipster whose average odds lie around the 2.00 mark and a strike rate of somewhere between 51 and 53%!  I exaggerate a little, but you take the point.

The fact here is that overall with this service I’m running at a very high ROI to date, mainly due to one day’s results that gave a BIG win.  Shame it’s at a fraction of the stakes Id be using if this were not a trial.  That’s not a complaint, just an acknowledgement of an irony.  I’m also aware that I could very easily have started on the wrong side of variance and the overall figures look very different, and it wouldn’t alter the way I am looking at the service.  I like what I see, and am confident there is an edge.  More to be revealed further down the line.

Sys Analyst was a little busier last week, providing tips on what was a fairly mundane Wednesday’s racing and today (Monday) I believe will be another tipping day.  I like the increased turnover, and I remember when SysAnalyst was active every day.  That has changed over recent times as getting on in weak markets has grown more and more difficult, which is a shame.  Anyway, another bit of profit to add to the month’s tally after last week’s bets were done.

Pleasingly, the Value Bets from the various Bookie Bashing Tools turned a corner for me over the weekend, and in fact not only reversed the drawdown but managed to poke their nose just above the profit and loss line for the first time this month.  It was very quiet during the week but the extra time I could devote to searching for value over the weekend paid dividends.  My biggest bet and win was actually a lay against there being exactly one or two goals in the first half of the England/Ireland match yesterday.  I don’t like laying.  Dont know why.  Perhaps the years of being on the other side of the fence has conditioned me mentally.  Whatever, I don’t enjoy it, but there was good value available laying at 1.73 against what the true odds according to the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker of 1.99.  And a nice win, amongst other good bets across the week using the Darts 180s Tool.

I felt very aggrieved not to come out on top with this week’s golf.  One of those weeks when overall performance was not reflected at all in the bottom line.  Having backed 21 players across the two tournaments, using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to find value, I had seven golfers finish in the top 11 on the DPWT and five finish in the Top 20 over Stateside.

Rasmus Hojgaard was almost an outright winner for me but finished a shot behind McIlroy in 2nd, McIntyre finish 7th when I had Top 5, the same withNakajima, Svensson finish 7th when I had Top 6, and McKibbin finish one shot off a share for 7th when I had him for Top 8.  That one shot deficit from 7th meant he finished 11th!

I know this is all ifs, buts and maybes, and is not uncommon for this to happen on a fairly regular basis.  I just feel that this was one of those weeks when a large proportion of the players I backed performed really well, and yet there was no real returns to show for it.  Ultimately I had four place, and a resultant very small loss on the week.

The dearth of top level football across Europe meant that only four Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker Lucky 15s were struck, and this dearth of bets was exacerbated by there being an issue with the Tracker over the weekend which meant odds were stale.  These things happen and no-one to blame.  Just Sod’s Law it came at a time when I couldn’t get any decent number of bets down.

Roll on next weekend.

November Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 765pts, -291.66pts, roi -38.12%, roc -19.44%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 352pts, -21.75pts, roi -6.17%, roc -1.45%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 781.15pts, +641.18pts, roi 82.11%, roc 32.05%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 487.07pts, +9.78pts, roi 2%, roc 0.97%.

The Value Machine: Staked 1,900pts, -195.81pts, roi -10.3%, roc -13.05%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 2,823pts, +278.03pts, roi 9.84%, roc 18.53%.

Trial Service: Staked 825.18pts, -49.43pts, roi -5.99%, roc -3.29%

TOTAL: Staked 7,933.4pts, +370.34pts, roi 4.66%, roc 4.11%.

Something I would advise anyone who is either looking to get into betting in a way that is seriously aimed at delivering a profit, or who is looking to ramp up their betting, is to seriously consider their unique personal circumstances and how they impact the decision making process around which services and/or strategies are used.

The Smart Betting Club provide real detail on the practicalities involved in following a tipster or service that they place under their review microscope.  At the risk of speaking out of turn and putting words into the mouths of others, I think a big reason for this is that each of us have at some point or other, probably joined a service that wasn’t a comfortable fit.  I know I certainly have in the past.

Three months or so ago my circumstances changed which meant that for a limited time, I was able to get a lot of bets down.  I was time rich, and this is why I signed up to The Value Machine.  A high turnover service run by a real stalwart of the tipping industry who has a tremendous reputation built up over many years of providing profitable betting advice.

A couple of weeks ago, my circumstances changed again, which I knew they would.  In short, I’ve started a new business and that means that much more of my time is now accounted for and I have much less time for betting.  Regular readers of the Bet Diary will know that I do ‘outsource’ a lot of my betting to my son which is a really useful resource to have available, not least for the access to certain books!  But I do still very much want to remain involved – it’s just I don’t have so much time to get to shops as I did not so long ago.

So when The Value Machine announced that it was looking at the possibility of launching a new, Exchange-friendly service and required some Beta testers to get involved, I jumped at the chance.  I still had free time during the trial period so getting on would be no problem, but with it being Exchange friendly – and in fact lucrative to Betfair SP – I saw an opportunity to not only make my betting easier to fit around what I knew was a schedule that was going to become time restricted, it also offered potential to move towards future proofing my betting.

The more I can build towards being able to rely on the Exchanges and – when time allows – shops, the better.  I love WinnerOdds Football, and the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker, but the fact is that there will come a time when I will no longer have access to the online books I need to make them work.  And then what?  I’ve been through this scenario before of course, and it does have an impact.  There’s no escaping that.

What makes the new TVM service so attractive to me though, is that if using Betfair SP, placing bets is going to take no time at all.  A real set and forget option.  The figures so far suggest very strongly that more profit can be made by using the immediate pre-race markets, and when I can I will.  But I won’t for large parts of each week, and so the BFSP option is manna from heaven.

We’ll see how it all goes.  It’s week 1 this week.  The service has been split into two – a Midweek Service covering selections from Monday to Thursday (higher turnover, lower ROI) and a Weekend Service running from Friday to Sunday (lower turnover, higher ROI).  I’ve signed up to both, and of course will keep you up to date on how they’re performing right here.

Have a great weekend!

The last couple of months or so have been pretty tough going, but the one recent very bright spot has been Sys Analyst, which enjoyed another highly successful weekend’s betting.

Winners at 16/1 always help of course, but when they’re supported by further winning bets at 5s, 6s and 7/1 – the last albeit effected by a Rule 4 deduction – then with a relatively low turnover service such as this, it’s going to mean profit.  And that’s what we got.

It’s easier for me to put on the Sys Analyst bets on a Saturday now that the cricket season has finished, and I’m benefiting from being able to use online accounts as opposed to scrabbling around on the Exchange apps in the interests of speed, whilst waiting to go into bat or field!  But, having said that, this is a service proven to be perfectly manageable by taking Exchange prices and as such is to be heartily recommended whether you have access to online accounts or not.

WinnerOdds Football continues to do what I hope this month, running at just above my target ROI figure of 5% as it is.  Another prolific weekend of bets resulted in a further boost to the profit.  It has been depressing today to see no bets provided (not at the bookmakers I can use, anyway) which I can only think is down to the start of another cursed international break.  Seriously, these are really doing my head in now.  It feels like every other week is one that brings domestic football grinding to a halt for a series of matches that surely, surely means very little to nothing to almost everyone?

This has and will dry up turnover on the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker too, although bearing in mind the current drawdown I’m experiencing with this, perhaps it’s for the better!  It’s not, obviously.  Who am I trying to kid?

The Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker did me well this week, with my own bets securing a third golfer to place as opposed to just the two from Weekly Golf Value.  As this third player was Grant Higgo at a tasty 150/1, the highest EV+ bet I placed in the WW Technology Championship, the impact was pretty big.  I was surprised when I totted everything up and found golf had made a tiny loss on the week.  I was expecting much bigger.

And that’s that, really.  In terms of notable profit or loss, anyway.

There has been a development with The Value Machine over the weekend.  I’ll write about that in my next post.

Until then…

November Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 705pts, -268.42pts, roi -38.07%, roc -17.89%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 164pts, -15.5pts, roi -9.45%, roc -1.03%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 478pts, +593.55pts, roi 124.17%, roc 29.67%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 212.95pts, -48.01pts, roi -22.54%, roc -4.8%.

The Value Machine: Staked 1,620pts, -144.59pts, roi -8.92%, roc -9.63%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 2,320pts, +154.78pts, roi 6.67%, roc 10.31%.

Trial Service: Staked 477.38pts, -100.37pts, roi -21.02%, roc -6.69%

TOTAL: Staked 5,977.33pts, +171.44pts, roi 2.86%, roc 1.75%.

You may remember that a couple of weeks ago or so I wrote about how Tom at Bookie Bashing had cut short his daily Vlog that he had intended to post for around a month.  The reason was that after posting just a couple of times, he had received some pretty venomous personal abuse from what I can only describe as complete idiots.

This was a classical case of a mindless minority ruining things for the majority.  Here was the opportunity to learn more about the thought processes and the edges used by an incredibly successful professional bettor, and some brain dead bellends had ruined it for us.

No blame whatsoever attached to Tom.  Who would put up with taking personal abuse from faceless idiots when you don’t have to?  I know I wouldn’t.

Since then, it’s been noticeable that the output from Bookie Bashing, in terms of videos and discussions around some of the edges that their tools can be used to identify that were frequently posted on their site, has diminished somewhat.  There’s not been a Bashcast podcast released since either (which is a huge miss as far as I’m concerned, by the way).  I may be reading more into this than there is.  It may be that the decline in public output has simply coincided timing-wise with what happened with the Vlog and there’s nothing more to it.  But the feeling I get is that the two are very much linked.

Then this week we have an announcement from the BB Team that they were closing their Discord channel.  I’ve got to admit, although I joined the channel, I didn’t pay much/any time in it.  I could see why they might close this and when it was announced I personally didn’t feel any sense of loss.  Certainly not in comparison to how disappointed I feel at not having had a Bashcast to listen to or a daily vlog to watch!

And then on Wednesday, Tom posted a video headed, “Why we don’t talk as much…”, which kinda says it all.

In the video, Tom basically lays out the crux of the issue, and justifiably and successfully gets across the message that life is too short to waste time arguing with people online (when really what you say is not going to have any impact – I guess another way of describing this “interaction” is arguing with trolls).  And I agree.  There aren’t enough hours in the day.  Why waste precious time and energy when if you have half an hour or so free, you can get out in the fresh air, walk the mutt, clear the mind, etc.?!?

The thing is – and I think this is where the real shame lies – is that although I don’t know Tom at all, he comes across strongly to me as someone who is only too happy to discuss and debate issues around what he does and what Bookie Bashing provides.  I get the distinct impression that he is open to a proper discourse from which both parties may pick something useful up, and would be completely fine should someone challenge something that he has said or done.  Most intelligent people do, and respond positively if challenged in a way that is polite and respectful…in short when someone behaves if they’ve been brought up to be respectful and not believe that the best way to approach someone is to just wade in in an aggressive and completely unreasonable way.  Manners cost nothing, and all that.

Anyway, like I say, I don’t really know Tom.  These are simply my own observations made from afar.  I hope, selfishly, that the Bashcast returns.  I hope that Tom and the others at Bookie Bashing continue to do what they’re clearly exceptionally good at, and most importantly, that they enjoy doing what they’re clearly exceptionally good at.  Because if they do, reasonable, intelligent folk who can rationalise and put points across without resorting to abuse and aggression will benefit, and everyone – those at Bookie Bashing, and their customers – wins.

Figures update on Monday.  Have a good weekend.

So after last week bemoaning my Saturdays and how badly they had been going recently, The Value Machine produced a good one and Sys Analyst had an absolute stormer!  With WinnerOdds Football following that up with a strong Sunday, it wasn’t a bad weekend of betting all told.

I wasn’t actually able to get on as many bets as I would have liked this weekend due to circumstances beyond my control, so I was thankful that a large proportion of the WO bets were accumulated through the previous week, and same with the EP Tracker.  I was however, able to jump on some racing bets issued on Saturday, and I was bloomin’ happy I could, as things worked out.

Sys Analyst is the one to take the biggest plaudits.  With the Breeders Cup taking place Stateside and a couple of good meetings on this side of the Pond, there was a fair amount to get stuck into.  The Real Whacker in the big race at Wetherby was the pick, landing decent odds carrying a decent stake.  I don’t want to go too much into individual winning bets, but there were a couple of other crackers too.

The only downer was the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker which has an uncharacteristic bad week.  Nothing to say about it really – just a bit of bad variance.

So not too much to talk about really.  One thing did manage to rile me though, and perhaps it should come as no surprise when I tell you it was refereeing standards that did it…again!

Now this isn’t my natural antipathy to Sp*rs but anyone who watched their match against Aston Villa on Sunday will know that Rodrigo Bentancur committed the most obvious, blatant, nailed on yellow card foul in the first half.  He went sliding in, studs up, ball had gone, and took out the man…from behind.  Only ridiculously inconsistent and downright incompetent refereeing could prevent my bet on Bentancur to be shown a card from paying out, and we all know the incredibly high standards demanded of our Premier League referees would make sure that never hap…..oh.

I despair of our refs.  I really do.  It would take a lot for them somehow manage to sink even lower in my estimation, but when they start costing me winnings, well, they’re reaching a new low.

November Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 255pts, -137.4pts, roi -53.88%, roc -9.16%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 0pts, 0pts, roi 0%, roc 0%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 219pts, 305.55pts, roi 139.52%, roc 20.37%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 149.95pts, -65.67pts, roi -43.78%, roc -8.75%.

The Value Machine: Staked 900pts, -30.59pts, roi -3.39%, roc -2.03%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 1,185pts, 126.96pts, roi 10.71%, roc 8.46%.

Trial Service: Staked 175.5pts, +28.05pts, roi 15.98%, roc 3.74%

TOTAL: Staked 2,884.45pts, +226.9pts, roi 7.86%, roc 2.32%.

What a grind October has been.  At times, it has felt like ridiculously hard going.  Halfway through the month and the drawdown was reaching the point of becoming really boring.  Nobody likes drawdowns, but this one just felt interminable.  Why?  Perhaps because with a couple of services now being such high volume, a lot of bets were being put down, which makes the grind feel even more grindier than normal.  I dunno, just a theory, but one that makes sense to me at least.

Ultimately, by the time the last race yesterday had been run and the last football match had been drawn to an end by three sharp peeps of the ref’s whistle, I had somehow managed to scramble into green territory.  Just.

And this is where it gets a little awkward.  Because I have the service currently being trialled, ahead of an SBC review, to thank for the fact that October wasn’t a complete dud.  And I swore that whilst trialling the service, I wouldn’t write about it in here, merely post the figures.  I don’t think it’s fair to go into any detail at all at this stage, and that will remain the case.  But I can’t completely ignore something that within a couple of weeks or so has managed to double its bank, and which has played such a prominent part on my keeping my nose just above the profit and loss line overall.  And all this to what is essentially less than half a bank assigned to it compared to the others (at this stage).

The big damage has been done by the Value Bets sourced from the various Trackers on the Bookie Bashing site.  Concentrating mainly on Cards and Enhanced Specials, I’ve definitely been on the wrong side of variance.  The levels of EV I’m taking are high, and I’ve not been drawn into striking bets with lower levels of value.  Perhaps if I had and had increased volume, it would be a different story, but the reality is that circumstances have meant I’ve had to cut back on the number of bets I’m searching for and striking, and so settled on this approach.  I know that as long as I continue to get the value, results will turn.  Just waiting for that ‘Heater’.

A very similar story with The Value Machine, which in the end settled just the wrong side of P&L this month.  Again to reduce the number of bets I was placing, I tweaked my parameters for what I would back and not (basically by reducing the maximum odds limit).  Since doing that, results have improved significantly – again only as a consequence of variance.  I’ve no idea how I would have fared without the tweak.  Perhaps I’d have made an amazing profit.  But I did tweak, results improved, and that’s where I am.

A word for those at Winning Odds Football, many of whom I believe are living in the area around Valencia so shockingly affected by the flash floods this past week.  Experiencing that must have been beyond terrifying, the consequent damage to life and property devastating, and from an email sent to subscribers I know some at WO were badly hit although mercifully have remained safe.  Thoughts are with you, folks.

As for results this past month, again a poor first half followed by a much better second and a strong finish.  After what was a great September for me, I’m hoping that the momentum from this this recent upturn continues and we get back to winning times.  To be honest though, when you hear about what has happened in Spain this week, it kinda puts betting profits and losses into context.

A good month using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker and I’ve got to admit, it was pretty satisfying to get a winner that I wouldn’t have had if I’d have just stuck to the Weekly Golf Value picks.  And I know 100% that roles there will be reversed at some point, and WGV be on a winner I’m not, but after a month of sourcing my own bets, I’m pretty pleased.  I find myself backing a few more players each week and covering a slightly bigger percentage of the field in terms of win probability, which over time ought to reduce the variance a little.  We’ll see. My main reasons for changing my approach though are that having lost a couple of accounts I was finding that getting on one or two of the WGV tips was problematic, and that by using the Tracker I can “beat” the WGV email – if only by a matter of half an hour or so – and that my money isn’t going into the bookmakers at a very similar time to those of other WGV members.  I’m not sure how much of a factor this is.  Perhaps not as much with golf as can be the case when following a popular horse racing tipster with a large following all trying to snap up the best prices at the same time?  Certainly I didn’t experience any real price pressure with the WGV bets, so I don’t think the two are comparable.  But to be completely honest, I don’t know with anything approaching certainty.  But I do know my new approach using the Golf Tracker isn’t going to do any harm in this respect, and may possibly be beneficial.

And finally, the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker has had a very solid month, without hitting the really big wins that can suddenly shoot the profit levels up.  Got one 4/4 Lucky 15 up, and a couple of 3/4s, which ain’t at all shabby.  The bank growth of 7.74% for the month reflects this, but that ROI is about half what we might expect long term.  I think this month the EP Tracker has been a Ford Mondeo – nothing wrong with it, gets you from A to B but doesn’t really thrill, whereas I see the EP Tracker more like an Aston Martin – plenty of ooomph and a bit of a head turner.

I think I’ve been typing too long.  Here’s to a good November…

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 1,345pts, +116.14pts, roi 8.63%, roc 7.74%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 970.5pts, +233.58pts, roi 24.06%, roc 11.67%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 643pts, -137.56pts, roi -21.39%, roc -6.87%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,648.19pts, -685.94pts, roi -41.61%, roc -34.29%.

The Value Machine: Staked 7,365pts, -73.29pts, roi -0.99%, roc -4.88%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 4,706pts, -99.63pts, roi -2.11%, roc -6.64%.

Trial Service: Staked 1,157.25pts, +757.45pts, roi 65.45%, roc 100.99%

TOTAL: Staked 17,834.94pts, +110.75pts, roi 0.62%, roc 1.13%.