Thankfully, a better weekend. Is this the start of the big recovery?
Well, we have to start at some point, although with (yet) another second place for Weekly Golf Value, the second in consecutive weeks, things still feel a little bit sticky, if you know what I mean?
Had Elvis Smylie finished in top place, it would have been a big win, but with betting, going down down the route of ‘What Ifs’ is a dopey thing to do. If my Dad’s brother was a woman she’d be my aunt, kinda thing. I think where I’m coming from is that when in the jaws of a bog drawdown, even when some decent profit has been made to have another close run second means that some frustration is inevitable.
Let’s put this into context though. Yes, it is frustrating, but only mildly so. This is all part of the gambling game we play. I found yesterday’s first half team selection for the Arsenal more frustrating, let’s put it that way!
Anyway, before I get to the figures, some thoughts on The Value Machine Exchange Profit.
Where to begin?
Look, variance is a hard mistress, and I don’t know what TVM has done to upset her, but upset she is! And she’s showing her displeasure on an almost daily basis, with horses being touched off by the slenderest of margins, of winners that don’t quite hit the required price to back, and losers that just hit the right price to back. Variance has hit hard over the past couple of months and my Exchange balance has been badly affected.
The fact is that my current drawdown figure has reached pretty darned close – some might say perilously close – to the bank allocated to following the service. I’ve read, and written, many pieces on when do stop following a tipster or service. My thoughts on the matter is that there are two main reasons.
- You can’t get on any more, or at least the practicalities of getting on are so arduous that it’s just not reasonably feasible.
- You hit a drawdown the size of the bank attached to the service.
To put it brutally, I need TVM to hit some winners, and fast. That we’re in this parlous state is a real sadness, too. The service is run by two proper pros, each of whom have a tremendously long track record of success running excellent and profitable tipping services. I trust them, and their methods. I genuinely believe TVM has been the victim of shockingly poor variance, but a line does need to be drawn at some point.
I’m praying that we have something of a recovery over the next few days. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than for things to turn around and we begin the road back to a new profit high.
Back to the weekend that was, and an excellent Sunday from SharpBetting Football, plus the profit from two placed golfers in the one tournament held (oh, how much more it nearly was!) has provided light at what I’m hoping is the end of a pretty dark tunnel.
The next few days will tell us, I’m sure.
September 2025 (stakes normalised)…
Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 664pts, -93pts, ROI -14%, ROC -6.53%
BB Tracker Each Way Golf Doubles: Staked 304pts, -186.79pts, ROI -61.44%, ROC -9.33%.
David’s Daily: Staked 1,078.5pts, +427.83pts, ROI 39.66%, ROC 42.78%
The Value Machine Exchange Profit: Staked 630pts, -161.92pts, ROI -25.7%, ROC -12.95%
Tilt The Odds: Staked 394.8pts, -102.9pts, ROI -26.06%, ROC -6.86%.
SharpBetting Football Model: Staked 3,122pts, +129.66pts, ROI 4.15%, ROC 8.64%.
WinnerOdds Tennis: Staked 7,219pts, -276.09pts, ROI -3.82%, ROC -13.8%.
TOTAL: Staked 13,412.3pts, -263.21pts, ROI -1.96%, ROC -2.44%