You may remember that a couple of weeks ago or so I wrote about how Tom at Bookie Bashing had cut short his daily Vlog that he had intended to post for around a month.  The reason was that after posting just a couple of times, he had received some pretty venomous personal abuse from what I can only describe as complete idiots.

This was a classical case of a mindless minority ruining things for the majority.  Here was the opportunity to learn more about the thought processes and the edges used by an incredibly successful professional bettor, and some brain dead bellends had ruined it for us.

No blame whatsoever attached to Tom.  Who would put up with taking personal abuse from faceless idiots when you don’t have to?  I know I wouldn’t.

Since then, it’s been noticeable that the output from Bookie Bashing, in terms of videos and discussions around some of the edges that their tools can be used to identify that were frequently posted on their site, has diminished somewhat.  There’s not been a Bashcast podcast released since either (which is a huge miss as far as I’m concerned, by the way).  I may be reading more into this than there is.  It may be that the decline in public output has simply coincided timing-wise with what happened with the Vlog and there’s nothing more to it.  But the feeling I get is that the two are very much linked.

Then this week we have an announcement from the BB Team that they were closing their Discord channel.  I’ve got to admit, although I joined the channel, I didn’t pay much/any time in it.  I could see why they might close this and when it was announced I personally didn’t feel any sense of loss.  Certainly not in comparison to how disappointed I feel at not having had a Bashcast to listen to or a daily vlog to watch!

And then on Wednesday, Tom posted a video headed, “Why we don’t talk as much…”, which kinda says it all.

In the video, Tom basically lays out the crux of the issue, and justifiably and successfully gets across the message that life is too short to waste time arguing with people online (when really what you say is not going to have any impact – I guess another way of describing this “interaction” is arguing with trolls).  And I agree.  There aren’t enough hours in the day.  Why waste precious time and energy when if you have half an hour or so free, you can get out in the fresh air, walk the mutt, clear the mind, etc.?!?

The thing is – and I think this is where the real shame lies – is that although I don’t know Tom at all, he comes across strongly to me as someone who is only too happy to discuss and debate issues around what he does and what Bookie Bashing provides.  I get the distinct impression that he is open to a proper discourse from which both parties may pick something useful up, and would be completely fine should someone challenge something that he has said or done.  Most intelligent people do, and respond positively if challenged in a way that is polite and respectful…in short when someone behaves if they’ve been brought up to be respectful and not believe that the best way to approach someone is to just wade in in an aggressive and completely unreasonable way.  Manners cost nothing, and all that.

Anyway, like I say, I don’t really know Tom.  These are simply my own observations made from afar.  I hope, selfishly, that the Bashcast returns.  I hope that Tom and the others at Bookie Bashing continue to do what they’re clearly exceptionally good at, and most importantly, that they enjoy doing what they’re clearly exceptionally good at.  Because if they do, reasonable, intelligent folk who can rationalise and put points across without resorting to abuse and aggression will benefit, and everyone – those at Bookie Bashing, and their customers – wins.

Figures update on Monday.  Have a good weekend.

So after last week bemoaning my Saturdays and how badly they had been going recently, The Value Machine produced a good one and Sys Analyst had an absolute stormer!  With WinnerOdds Football following that up with a strong Sunday, it wasn’t a bad weekend of betting all told.

I wasn’t actually able to get on as many bets as I would have liked this weekend due to circumstances beyond my control, so I was thankful that a large proportion of the WO bets were accumulated through the previous week, and same with the EP Tracker.  I was however, able to jump on some racing bets issued on Saturday, and I was bloomin’ happy I could, as things worked out.

Sys Analyst is the one to take the biggest plaudits.  With the Breeders Cup taking place Stateside and a couple of good meetings on this side of the Pond, there was a fair amount to get stuck into.  The Real Whacker in the big race at Wetherby was the pick, landing decent odds carrying a decent stake.  I don’t want to go too much into individual winning bets, but there were a couple of other crackers too.

The only downer was the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker which has an uncharacteristic bad week.  Nothing to say about it really – just a bit of bad variance.

So not too much to talk about really.  One thing did manage to rile me though, and perhaps it should come as no surprise when I tell you it was refereeing standards that did it…again!

Now this isn’t my natural antipathy to Sp*rs but anyone who watched their match against Aston Villa on Sunday will know that Rodrigo Bentancur committed the most obvious, blatant, nailed on yellow card foul in the first half.  He went sliding in, studs up, ball had gone, and took out the man…from behind.  Only ridiculously inconsistent and downright incompetent refereeing could prevent my bet on Bentancur to be shown a card from paying out, and we all know the incredibly high standards demanded of our Premier League referees would make sure that never hap…..oh.

I despair of our refs.  I really do.  It would take a lot for them somehow manage to sink even lower in my estimation, but when they start costing me winnings, well, they’re reaching a new low.

November Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 255pts, -137.4pts, roi -53.88%, roc -9.16%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 0pts, 0pts, roi 0%, roc 0%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 219pts, 305.55pts, roi 139.52%, roc 20.37%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 149.95pts, -65.67pts, roi -43.78%, roc -8.75%.

The Value Machine: Staked 900pts, -30.59pts, roi -3.39%, roc -2.03%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 1,185pts, 126.96pts, roi 10.71%, roc 8.46%.

Trial Service: Staked 175.5pts, +28.05pts, roi 15.98%, roc 3.74%

TOTAL: Staked 2,884.45pts, +226.9pts, roi 7.86%, roc 2.32%.

What a grind October has been.  At times, it has felt like ridiculously hard going.  Halfway through the month and the drawdown was reaching the point of becoming really boring.  Nobody likes drawdowns, but this one just felt interminable.  Why?  Perhaps because with a couple of services now being such high volume, a lot of bets were being put down, which makes the grind feel even more grindier than normal.  I dunno, just a theory, but one that makes sense to me at least.

Ultimately, by the time the last race yesterday had been run and the last football match had been drawn to an end by three sharp peeps of the ref’s whistle, I had somehow managed to scramble into green territory.  Just.

And this is where it gets a little awkward.  Because I have the service currently being trialled, ahead of an SBC review, to thank for the fact that October wasn’t a complete dud.  And I swore that whilst trialling the service, I wouldn’t write about it in here, merely post the figures.  I don’t think it’s fair to go into any detail at all at this stage, and that will remain the case.  But I can’t completely ignore something that within a couple of weeks or so has managed to double its bank, and which has played such a prominent part on my keeping my nose just above the profit and loss line overall.  And all this to what is essentially less than half a bank assigned to it compared to the others (at this stage).

The big damage has been done by the Value Bets sourced from the various Trackers on the Bookie Bashing site.  Concentrating mainly on Cards and Enhanced Specials, I’ve definitely been on the wrong side of variance.  The levels of EV I’m taking are high, and I’ve not been drawn into striking bets with lower levels of value.  Perhaps if I had and had increased volume, it would be a different story, but the reality is that circumstances have meant I’ve had to cut back on the number of bets I’m searching for and striking, and so settled on this approach.  I know that as long as I continue to get the value, results will turn.  Just waiting for that ‘Heater’.

A very similar story with The Value Machine, which in the end settled just the wrong side of P&L this month.  Again to reduce the number of bets I was placing, I tweaked my parameters for what I would back and not (basically by reducing the maximum odds limit).  Since doing that, results have improved significantly – again only as a consequence of variance.  I’ve no idea how I would have fared without the tweak.  Perhaps I’d have made an amazing profit.  But I did tweak, results improved, and that’s where I am.

A word for those at Winning Odds Football, many of whom I believe are living in the area around Valencia so shockingly affected by the flash floods this past week.  Experiencing that must have been beyond terrifying, the consequent damage to life and property devastating, and from an email sent to subscribers I know some at WO were badly hit although mercifully have remained safe.  Thoughts are with you, folks.

As for results this past month, again a poor first half followed by a much better second and a strong finish.  After what was a great September for me, I’m hoping that the momentum from this this recent upturn continues and we get back to winning times.  To be honest though, when you hear about what has happened in Spain this week, it kinda puts betting profits and losses into context.

A good month using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker and I’ve got to admit, it was pretty satisfying to get a winner that I wouldn’t have had if I’d have just stuck to the Weekly Golf Value picks.  And I know 100% that roles there will be reversed at some point, and WGV be on a winner I’m not, but after a month of sourcing my own bets, I’m pretty pleased.  I find myself backing a few more players each week and covering a slightly bigger percentage of the field in terms of win probability, which over time ought to reduce the variance a little.  We’ll see. My main reasons for changing my approach though are that having lost a couple of accounts I was finding that getting on one or two of the WGV tips was problematic, and that by using the Tracker I can “beat” the WGV email – if only by a matter of half an hour or so – and that my money isn’t going into the bookmakers at a very similar time to those of other WGV members.  I’m not sure how much of a factor this is.  Perhaps not as much with golf as can be the case when following a popular horse racing tipster with a large following all trying to snap up the best prices at the same time?  Certainly I didn’t experience any real price pressure with the WGV bets, so I don’t think the two are comparable.  But to be completely honest, I don’t know with anything approaching certainty.  But I do know my new approach using the Golf Tracker isn’t going to do any harm in this respect, and may possibly be beneficial.

And finally, the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker has had a very solid month, without hitting the really big wins that can suddenly shoot the profit levels up.  Got one 4/4 Lucky 15 up, and a couple of 3/4s, which ain’t at all shabby.  The bank growth of 7.74% for the month reflects this, but that ROI is about half what we might expect long term.  I think this month the EP Tracker has been a Ford Mondeo – nothing wrong with it, gets you from A to B but doesn’t really thrill, whereas I see the EP Tracker more like an Aston Martin – plenty of ooomph and a bit of a head turner.

I think I’ve been typing too long.  Here’s to a good November…

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 1,345pts, +116.14pts, roi 8.63%, roc 7.74%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 970.5pts, +233.58pts, roi 24.06%, roc 11.67%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 643pts, -137.56pts, roi -21.39%, roc -6.87%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,648.19pts, -685.94pts, roi -41.61%, roc -34.29%.

The Value Machine: Staked 7,365pts, -73.29pts, roi -0.99%, roc -4.88%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 4,706pts, -99.63pts, roi -2.11%, roc -6.64%.

Trial Service: Staked 1,157.25pts, +757.45pts, roi 65.45%, roc 100.99%

TOTAL: Staked 17,834.94pts, +110.75pts, roi 0.62%, roc 1.13%.

…I ought to just stay in bed!

Is When Saturday Comes still a thing?  I used to buy it religiously every week from the local newsagents back in the 90s.  WSC was at the forefront of the new (at the time) Fanzine scene, and it was sooo refreshing compared to all the nonsense you’d get in the tabloids or the staid writing of the Chief Football Correspondents on the broadsheets.  Loved my WSC, I did.

Anyway, the headline does not refer directly to that erstwhile publication, and more to my mood when Saturday ends!  Seriously, if I just didn’t bet The Value Machine selections each Saturday, I reckon I’d be quids in this month.  Instead, I’ve just dipped back into the red after last week hailing the recovery to get into the black.  Talk about up and down, and it always seems to be the Saturdays that do for me.

To be honest, I’ll be glad to see the back of this month.  It’s been a real struggle and I’m still in a loss making position, albeit not now a very big one.  I even made a bit of profit last week but that was mainly down to the ‘Trial Service’.  My intention was to just post the figures during the trial run, and not make mention of it specifically, but after a Friday just gone that saw one bet land the equivalent to 72% bank growth in just one hit, it’s a bit hard to maintain that cloak of secrecy.  I’ll not mention the name of the service as yet, but suffice to say that when it hits big, it hits big!  Trouble is, as I’m only trialling it, I’m using very small stakes and a proportionally very small bank.  Oh well, the signs are ‘promising’, shall we say?

Elsewhere though, and things have continued to be all a bit gloomy.  The killer for me, other than Saturday’s horses, has been the Value Bets.  Concentrating mainly on Player to be Shown a Card markets and the Enhanced Specials, simply because I’ve found these the easiest to find good levels of value within the restricted time I have, are going through a cold spell.  For me, anyway.  Tom at Bookie Bashing talks of waiting for the heater to arrive, and believe me, I am waiting for all the warm, glorious bone seeping heat to arrive in all its glory.  Bring me that heat!  I worship at the altar of all that is warm and goodly.

It’ll come, I’m sure.  But right now, it feels like I’m on the North Pole wearing only a thin cotton T-shirt and a pair of linen shorts.

Figures below…

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 1,270pts, +90.49pts, roi 7.12%, roc 6.03%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 970.5pts, +233.58pts, roi 24.06%, roc 11.67%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 643pts, -137.56pts, roi -21.39%, roc -6.87%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,648.19pts, -685.94pts, roi -41.61%, roc -34.29%.

The Value Machine: Staked 6,090pts, -90.73pts, roi -1.48%, roc -4.53%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 4,489pts, -195.08pts, roi -4.34%, roc -9.75%.

Trial Service: Staked 966pts, +521.71pts, roi 54%, roc 69.56%

TOTAL: Staked 15,686.94pts, -438.74pts, roi -2.79%, roc -4.61%.

Is anyone else beginning to lose interest in Premier League football?

I was chatting to an old mate over the weekend.  Big Man U fan (I know, I know) who has a season ticket at Old Trafford and back when we were both much younger and free of the expense that are children, used to go to loads of away games too.  He was a proper died-in-the-wool fan, but is someone who now is so disillusioned with the way the game has gone, is considering giving up his season ticket.  And he never bothers with away games any more.

And it got me thinking.  I mean, I think I’m a pretty staunch Arsenal supporter.  I used to travel down to Highbury for every weekend home game and some midweek too, which from Cheshire is no short journey.  And after a few years of what felt like purgatory, I can now really invest emotionally again into a team that has been seriously on the up for the past couple of years.  We’re now serious Title contenders, and believe me, that should feel amazing.  I’ve always felt that the thrill of football supporting was not necessarily winning, but being competitive.  That old Wenger/Ferguson era rivalry between the two Clubs was petrifying, exhilarating, demoralising (when losing) and yet capable of putting me on a high for weeks (when winning).  Depending on whether winning or losing, I felt elation or real pain.  It was bloody marvellous.

And yet, despite Arsenal’s recent renaissance, I just can’t fully let myself go and enjoy it.  VAR has, in my opinion, done nothing but bad to the game.  The inability to be able to completely let yourself go when your team scores an important goal because you have to wait to see if someone was offside by a millimetre (and I have no time for anyone who says offside is offside – the law was introduced to prevent gaining an unfair advantage by goal hanging…being offside to such a narrow extent as it takes ten minutes for lines to be drawn and images analysed means that the spirit of that law has definitely not been infringed and the attacker really hasn’t gained any conceivable advantage!!! – so do one!).

And the other major issue I have with VAR?  That it has shone a very bright and uncompromising light on the incompetence and inability to act consistently, of our referees and the PGMOL.  Seriously, they are so incompetent it makes me wince, and then wonder if there’s anything more sinister going on.

I’m not saying that referees are taking bungs or that they’re bent in any way.  But we do know that spot fixing and dodgy betting patterns are a thing in top level sport (cricket and tennis have seen well publicised and proven spot fixing controversies).  And here’s the thing.  Whereas both cricket and tennis set up fully transparent and accountable, independently governed units to investigate and expose suspicious betting patterns and to tackle the problem of spot fixing, football and the body that “regulates” football referees in this country, is about as transparent and accountable as, err…something that isn’t either transparent or accountable.

And so the optics aren’t good.  It’s only very recently been decided by the PGMOL that their leading referees can’t moonlight by reffing matches in the Saudi Pro League and the UAE League, when two leading Premier League clubs are owned by the Vice President of the UAE and the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia?  Talk about a conflict of interest!

And then on Saturday we have a referee on VAR who is not allowed to officiate Liverpool matches because he is a fan, influencing the on-pitch ref’s decision to give a yellow card and instead issue a red and so send off one of Arsenal’s best player meaning he misses the next match through suspension.  Which team is that next match against?  Liverpool.

Again, not saying this is corrupt.  But what “governing” body worth its salt creates a situation where this is even a thing?  An incompetent one, that’s what.

I’ve come away from the original point a little.  And what’s all this got to do with betting anyway!?!

Not a lot truth be told.  Was wondering if it’s just me who is no longer really finding the beautiful game to be that beautiful any more?

Just one thing to note though, and worth checking out if you haven’t already.

Ted Knutson is a former professional bettor, who in an interesting career to date also played a large part in developing Pinnacle Sports as a major global bookmaking firm, and worked with FC Midtjylland and Brentford as a Data Analyst.  He has been very much at the forefront of the development and use of sports analytics within the top levels of the professional game.

Anyway, he has recently launched a free, daily newsletter which is such a refreshing read.  It’s insightful, entertaining, and provides an intelligent assessment of aspects of the game that the likes of pundits on Sky and Talksport could only dream of providing.  He has also launched to go with it, a betting service concentrating on the Premier League, the Championship and the Champions’ League.  This was initially free, and I signed up to it.  I didn’t follow with money, but found the breakdown and angles being explored each week fascinating to read.

As it happens, the results weren’t that great, but I believe have really picked up over the last couple of weeks or so.  I didn’t subscribe when it went down the subscription route (although it’s pretty cheap at about £15/month).  I’m not for one moment recommending you sign up to this and devote a betting bank to it.  But the free newsletter, I couldn’t recommend more strongly.  You can find it at The Transfer Flow.

Back soon.

I’ll be honest with you, things betting are a wee bit tiresome just at present.  A more or less sideways week, a touch less than a touch more, which is a pity.  If I take a step back and see that actually, the recovery from what was a really sharp drawdown early in the month has been pretty positive.  But you know, it would be kinda nice to get things moving into positive territory again.  The grind is grinding, if you catch my drift.

Let’s start with the positive, and from a pretty low position The Value Machine has been the model of consistency, and in fact for the month has now got to where I would like it to be.  It has just stuck its nose above the 5% ROI line and I really hope it kicks on from here.  I still can’t quite manage a profitable Saturday with it, although this week the loss was pretty small and was followed by a very good Sunday.

Saturdays have been a bit of a kicker for me all round, in recent times.

Frustrating times with the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker which as always, through up a number of loss-making Lucky 15s, but but still just avoiding the big 4/4 winner that really kicks everything on again.  Came very close over the weekend with two 3/4s, and if Hull had not buggered up against Sunderland yesterday afternoon, we’d be talking about an overall 30% ROI for the month.  But they did, and we’re not.

Just a small loss with the Golf Tracker too.  Much less by way of overlap between my list of bets and those of the Weekly Golf Value, and I believe I came out a little better again by having three placed in the US Tour tournament whilst WGV had just the one.  Two of mine were at 70/1 too, so the loss overall amounted to little.  There will be weeks of course, where I’m outperformed by WGV, but as I keep telling myself, with similar market coverage each week, over time we should end up in pretty similar positions.

A mixed weekend for Sys Analyst, Saturday bad, Sunday good (with two decent priced winners) so a claw back of some earlier losses here, and exactly the same comments apply to Winner Odds Football except the good day was the Saturday and poorer Sunday.

The elephant in the room is the performance of the Value Bets, which is almost a third of its bank down.  As much of my betting here is on Player Cards, I can easily compartmentalize this by blaming the refs.  They really are useless!

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 850pts, -28.36pts, roi -3.33%, roc -1.89%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 669pts, +341.08pts, roi 50.98%, roc 17.05%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 480pts, -166.56pts, roi -34.7%, roc -8.32%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,363.64pts, -594.51pts, roi -43.59%, roc -29.72%.

The Value Machine: Staked 4,680pts, +237.43pts, roi 5.07%, roc 11.87%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 3,293pts, -159.99pts, roi -4.85%, roc -7.99%.

Trial Service: Staked 708pts, -51.12pts, roi -7.22%, roc -6.81%

TOTAL: Staked 11,652.89pts, -596.84pts, roi -5.12%, roc -6.28%.

You may recall that a couple of Bet Diary posts back, I mentioned that I would be using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to find my weekly golf bets more, and rely on the Weekly Golf Value tips less.  The reason for this planned shift was that after a couple of bookmaker accounts had started to impose staking restrictions I was finding it harder to get on every one of the WGV players at either the correct price, or to the correct stake, or to both!

I’ve been on this path before, and know where it leads.

The thinking behind using the Tracker to a greater extent is based on two factors.

1. I can set it up to take prices from bookmakers I can still get on with without any problem; and
2. I’ll not be following the crowd lumping on the same golfers at the same books as soon as the WGV email comes through (which might, you never know, slightly increase the chances of staying under bookmaker radars for a little bit longer than might otherwise be the case).

I’ve tended to look at the Tracker at around midday on the Wednesday, which is fairly close to the time I know Bookie Bashing do the same to produce the list of golfers for WGV members to back that week.  Unsurprisingly then, in the two weeks I’ve been doing this there has been some considerable overlap between the golfers I’ve backed and those put up in the WGV email.

Before doing this, I have had to mentally prepare myself.  It is inevitable that at some point, WGV is going to put up a winner that I haven’t backed, and I guess I’m not going to like that.  Interesting psychology this.  I’ve had to forcibly remind myself that of course, there will also be times when WGV don’t put up a winner that I’m on (more on this in a moment), but in the same way that an unlucky losing bet seems to remain in the conscious for longer than a lucky winning bet, so the negative thought process here feels like it is overriding the positive.  Which is daft.

WGV look to cover around 15% of the field in terms of win probability in any one event.  I am looking to do the same, but using the Tracker for myself.  Over time therefore, our results should look very similar as long as we are both taking value prices at roughly similar odds.

Another difference I’ve noticed over the past two weeks is the staking.  On the Bookie Bashing site, there is a Golf Staking Calculator that I use.  This has however, generally speaking, meant that I have been staking slightly less on certain golfers that WGV also put up.

This brings us to this last week, which has been something of a triumph for WGV/Bookie Bashing golf betting!

First, the European Tour event in France.  Dan Bradbury was put up by WGV, and had also picked him out as a suitable bet using the Tracker.  The difference between the two was that the stake WGV assigned to Bradbury was literally twice the size of mine, and the recommended book was one offering 125/1…that I can’t use.  Instead, I was on at 90/1 (one reason I imagine the stake was lower, as an iteration of Kelly staking is used whereby a larger stake is assigned when there is perceived to be a higher level of value within any given bet).  I’m never going to complain about a 90/1 winner!  I merely point this out to illustrate where using the Tracker may have a different outcome than simply following the prescriptive WGV list.

So, a great golf betting weekend.  But, it was only half way through…

On to the US tournament over in Utah.  I was on rookie Matt McCarty from the Tracker.  WGV was not.

McCarty went into the final round two shots ahead and there was really no sign of rookie nerves throughout the last 18 holes.  He won by three shots, and I was on another winner, this time at 50/1!  An example of where using the Tracker has paid off.  Like we said above, there will be times it works the other way, and it’ll be important to remember this win when that happens.

A great golf betting weekend turned into an exceptional one.  Happy days.

Overall, last week was a pretty decent one, helped in no small part by the golfing success.  It would be unfair to say that it was only the golf that contributed however.  It was generally speaking, a decent all round portfolio performance that has clawed back about two thirds of the previous week’s sharp and horrible losses.

More on that however, in the next post.  In the meantime, here are the figures…

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 445pts, -0.19pts, roi -0.04%, roc -0.01%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 452pts, +370.1pts, roi 81.88%, roc 18.5%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 339pts, -250.8pts, roi -73.98%, roc -12.54%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,159.52pts, -548.07pts, roi -47.26%, roc -27.4%.

The Value Machine: Staked 3,160pts, +48.34pts, roi 1.52%, roc 2.41%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 2,063pts, -124.43pts, roi -6.03%%, roc -6.22%.

Trial Service: Staked 370.5pts, +136.16pts, roi 36.75%, roc 20.17%

TOTAL: Staked 7,781.27pts, -359.82pts, roi -4.62%, roc -3.78%.

Just following on, in a way, from the previous post and the experience of Bookie Basher Tom in being subject to completely unnecessary personal abuse after posting his Vlog.

This isn’t concerning Tom directly, but I couldn’t help but think of what happened there whilst in the Discord channel of a service that I’m currently trialling.  The strategy they use is very definitely high variance.  The sort where you see and expect a lot of losing bets before hitting a big win that wipes out the losses and then some.

There were a number of messages on different threads from one chap, bemoaning that having set aside a not inconsiderable set of money for this service, after two days he had staked a pretty significant proportion of his bank and had suffered losses.  His displeasure was clear, as he cast doubt on the efficacy of the strategy and – to my mind at least – just staying the right line of calling it a con.  The use of the word “beware”, aimed at others in the channel who are also trialling the service, is what gave me this impression.  Maybe I’m reading too much into it, maybe I’m not.

The replies from “Admin” were consistent, incredibly polite, and showed admirable patience.  Far more patience than I’d have been minded to provide, I don’t mind saying, so credit to them for that!  And look, who knows?  Maybe there isn’t an edge (although I’m pretty darned sure there is), which is why I’m trialling to seriously small stakes (not much more than paper trading, if I’m honest), but to give it two days?  It was the line, “winning in the long run….I’ve heard that before”, that finally did me in and I had switch off the laptop.

On a serious note, I do worry about the thinking with which some people go into betting.  This chap professed to have decades of betting experience.  Got to admit I was struggling to see much evidence of it based on his comments, approach and attitude.

In other news, this week so far has been about stopping the rot and starting to claw back the losses that hit last week.  The Value Machine, after a couple of very solid days has clambered just about into green territory for the month, and a couple of winning bets at World Grand Prix of Darts sourced from the Bookie Bashing x180s Tool have provided a little relief too.  What would really do the trick is a big win on the golf come Sunday.  Oh how sweet that would be!

What has been frustrating has been the inevitable impact of this latest international football break (yaaaaawn!!) has had on turnover.  But what can I do about that, eh?  Nothing, nothing at all.

Have a good weekend, folks.

You know that when you look at the past week, the highlight is that by using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker yourself and not just relying on the Weekly Golf Value bets (as mentioned last week), you’ve managed a slightly smaller loss than would otherwise have been the case…it’s not been a great week.

To be honest, I’d snap your hand off for “not great”.  The word I would use instead to describe the past seven days or so, is the title of this post!

We all know these spells happen from time to time, but it makes them no less painful to endure when they do.  It’s been a horrible week, with not one tipster or strategy used generating any profit, and a number producing a pretty sharp loss.  Diversification is supposed to stop such acute sharp, short term swings, but every now and then, the principles of diversification get trampled on and destroyed.

From Sunday, things have stabilised a little.  It feels akin to having a bad, open wound.  Somehow I’ve managed to stem the flow of blood, but I still need to get to hospital.  The losses are the flow of blood – since Sunday I’ve managed to scrabble a profit of about £50, which feels like it’s bought me the time for the ambulance to arrive.

I’m exaggerating a little, of course.  The drawdown only amounts to 10% of the overall betting bank, so let’s keep things in perspective.  It’s just when that 10% drop hits over the course of just three or four days, then it feels like quite a hard hit.  Suddenly you’re depositing more money into more accounts, and that always makes things feel worse.  I guess that’s a consequence of never wanting to hold too much money with any one company for any lengthy period of time.

I’ll post the figures below, as usual.  I’m not going to go into any detail about how any individual service or strategy has performed.  1. What’s the point? and 2. It’s too soon! Too soon, I tell you!

What I am going to mention is the total and complete waste of oxygen cowards who refuse to take responsibility for their own actions and who instead scapegoat someone else are.  Bookie Bashing Tom had just started a 25 day series of daily Vlogs, aimed at being entertaining (I find Tom always is, hence why the BB Podcast is a must listen) and educational.  Here we have anyone at all able to listen to a renowned professional gambler talk through his bets, explain some of the edges, and go into his thought processes.  Genuinely, I reckon if instead of a Vlog series someone like this ran “seminars”, marketed them aggressively, and delivered the same content, they could charge a lot of money for attending.  I’ve seen it happen in the property world.

Instead, we could get this insight for free.  Every day for a near-month.  What an education that could have been, but instead some brainless, selfish, good-for-nothing bell-ends (hyphenated?) have seemingly ruined it for everyone else by submitting Tom to vitriolic personal abuse!  Seriously, what sort of person do you have to be?  As a result, Tom (and I do not blame him) has at best put a temporary pause on issuing these Vlogs, and at worst has just brought a halt to them altogether. I don’t blame him.  I’d do the same.

I don’t know any detail.  Last Wednesday was a bit of a shocker with almost all of a relatively large number of bets I placed that I’d derived from the BB Tools I use being losing bets.  I noticed that there was (unsurprisingly I guess, bearing in mind the same source) a fair amount of overlap between the bets I had placed and those that Tom was talking about and striking himself.  Did people just blindly follow him, do their money and then let loose with all that nonsense aimed at Tom?  That’s my guess.  Either way, hurling crap at someone from behind a screen is to my mind, an offence that should be punished by public shaming so cowardly is it.  Bring back the stocks and rotten tomatoes, I say.

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 400pts, +31.5pts, roi 7.87%, roc 2.1%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 240pts, -47pts, roi -19.95%, roc -2.39%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 182pts, -155pts, roi -85.16%, roc -7.75%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 960.06pts, -427.8pts, roi -44.55%, roc -21.39%.

The Value Machine: Staked 1,810pts, -171.35pts, roi -9.46%, roc -8.56%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 1,536pts, -224.82pts, roi -14.63%%, roc -11.24%.

Trial Service: Staked 7.5pts, +47pts, roi 626.66%, roc 6.96%

TOTAL: Staked 4,927.81pts, -948.55pts, roi -19.24%, roc -9.98%.

What do we think is the most common mistake made by folk who want to elevate their betting to a “serious” level and who rely on the skills and abilities of others to do so?  In other words, those who follow tipsters – where do we err most frequently?

From personal experience, I reckon there are a number of “areas of weakness” that I had to really work on.  I made so many mistakes that looking back now, make me cringe.

Paying too much for a service in subscription fees in relation to the size of bank we have, or not setting up a separate betting bank in the first place are two errors I hear a lot about.  Choosing to follow a tipster whose approach to betting isn’t psychologically suited to our own risk profile is another; ie. if you really struggle with long losing runs then starting with a golf service or a horse racing tipster whose tips average out at 16/1 and longer isn’t likely to end well.  Trust me, I’ve been there, done that!

I hate to say it, but jumping in bed with a tipster who has no proofed track record, can provide no detailed breakdown of performance, relies on non-independent affiliates to drum up a customer base…we’ve all been there (have we?…tell me we have!).  Actually, maybe not nowadays, but back in the day…

Anyway, the point is, is that there are loads of mistakes we can make and a lot of traps we can fall into.

But, I reckon the most common error I see being made is finding a tipster with a clearly defined and statistically proven edge, and then not allowing him or her the requisite time for the edge to manifest itself.

And I get it.  You join a new service, and you get off to a losing start.  No matter how much you have read about it before committing, ingested and digested the reviews, done the statistical research and absorbed the findings of Monte Carlo simulations (all framed within the context perhaps, of a service that has successfully been generating profit for years)…until you start benefitting yourself it is almost impossible for you to reach the point of complete “buy in”.

There’s nothing worse than joining a service only to get off to a losing start.  Which is exactly what has happened to me with The Value Machine.  Actually, the first week or two was really profitable, and then a drawdown hit.  Which in some ways, is even harder to take.

SBC Towers received an email from a member who, reading my Bet Diary report, asked if the The Value Machine edge should not have shown itself after the number of bets that have been placed (for context, I average at just over 30 bets per day and have done since the start of last month).  That’s around 900 bets for September, and yet I’m in negative territory.

I’m not a statistician.  I’m no mathematician either.  But from all the reading I’ve done over the years I understand that this isn’t a big enough data sample of bets from which to draw any conclusions.  Not when the average odds of the bets is 5.86/1 (for those interested, I set my TVM parameters at finding selections between Evens and 10/1).

Trust me, when your drawdown reaches 40% of the betting bank with a service that you’re yet to make any money from, it’s hard to think like this.  And I’ll tell you something.  If this had been me when starting out on my betting journey, I reckon I would have quit, or come very close to.  Which would have bene the complete wrong thing to do.

Others, who have a different psychological profile to me, may not batter an eyelid in the same circumstances.  The only reason I’m not tearing at my hair and running around shaking my fists up at the Gambling Gods and declaring “Infamy! Infamy!  They all have it in for me!” (Carry On Cleo), is through experience and having seen/made this mistake countless times before.

Which is why I think it vital to have certain rules in place to provide a framework.  Something that provides guidance and perhaps takes guesswork out of any decision making process around deciding whether or not to continue with a service that is struggling. This could be when starting with a service and having got off to a sticky start, or for a service you’ve been with for a long term and have benefited from financially.

My “framework” is very simple.  I track all current drawdowns, and maximum drawdowns suffered to date with any one tipster.  If at any point, a drawdown reaches the point that is equal to the size of the bank that was initially set aside for it, then that’s it.  A line is drawn.

So say, for sake of easy numbers, you sign up to a new service and assign to it a bank of 100 points.  In the first two years, you make a 300 point profit.  At that point there is a horrible drawdown that reduces your profit by 200 points (the size of your original bank) – that’s when I would quit.  I’m still 100 points to the good, but the drawdown has reached the original bank size of 200 points.

As for The Value Machine specifically.  This is a service with an exceptionally long, proven track record.  But looking at its history, it is clear that – much like golf betting – it is very common to go weeks without making any progress and then see a spurt of profit that takes members to a new profit high point.  With the odds profile as it is, we need to see a lot more bets come through before having any sort of expectation that the edge really should have made itself evident, buy hasn’t (with the inference that there is no edge any longer).

Compare to WinnerOdds Football.  I don’t think anyone can deny the edge that exists there.  And yet here I am, 1,260 bets in (at much, much shorter average odds per bet) at an ROI of just 0.96%, way below the long term that sits around the 5% mark.

The conclusion?

If we’re with a service that ticks all the right boxes in terms of it having been analysed and proven to have a long term edge, then we need to give it ample time for that edge to manifest itself to our benefit.  And that means striking a LOT of bets.  More than I’ve placed myself for The Value Machine and WinnerOdds Football.

I have no doubts at all about the existence of the edge with these services.  My fear comes more from being able to keep (or not!) bookmaker accounts open for long enough for me to be able to profit well from the edge that exists.  That’s a completely different mindset.  My safety net in terms of winning or losing comes from the betting bank and funds I’ve set aside – reach the point where a drawdown hits the points betting bank assigned…that’s when I’m out, and not before (unless the accounts go).  That’s my way of avoiding the mistake I made several times before the penny dropped…the mistake of quitting something really good, far too soon.