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SPORTS: Another quietly profitable week, thank you very much!

This sports “portfolio” is just about the very antithesis of what a lot of people think serious betting is about.  I think the natural assumption for those that have no clue is that it’s all big wins and devastating losses, and sure, there are services out there that you can follow that are very much like that.  I follow a few myself.

But these three tipsters here – On The Oche, The Poacher and Touchdown Profit – are the absolute opposite of that misconception.  Last week was another prime example of just ticking along, adding a nice, but modest profit to those already made this year.

One bet from On The Oche (just a half point stake risked) came up with the goods, and The Poacher eked out a bit of profit too.  Noticeable that the latter is beginning to produce a bit more by way of output too, now that the European footie season is properly underway.

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 55pts, +8.735pts, roi 15.88%, roc 29.11%, High 8.735pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 160.5pts, +5.304pts, roi 3.33%, roc 13.26%, High 6.606pts, DD -1.302pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 6.78%, ROC 13.24%.

GOLF: Tour Tips comes good!

Will Zalatoris winning the play-off in the PGA Tour event last night for Tour Tips at 25/1 ensured the week’s golf punting ended in profit, and I’m never going to complain about that!  It feels like a long time since we had a winner from Tour Tips and although we’re still in the red for the year, the losses have been cut considerably.  Another winner like this week’s and we’d be ahead, which just goes to show how quickly things can turn around.

The Rainmaker will be praying that’s the case for him as yet again, for the upteenth time it feels, he knocked on the door, this time getting two to place in the same US event.  However, at the prices it wasn’t enough to avoid another (small) loss on the week, and we need one of these near missed to drop soon.

A very similar story for Golf Insider who also found two to place for the week, but again at relatively skinny odds for golf and with one sharing the places with too many others, a loss overall was the outcome.

This however was better than Weekly Golf Value who could only get one in the frame across the two tournaments (and sadly again, we had to share the place money), and PGA Profit, which blanked completely and is now barely above the profit and loss line for me for this year so far.

So all in all, an ok week that provided some profit, but it still feels like the portfolio isn’t quite clicking.  Let’s see what this week brings.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 301pts, -53.935pts, roi -17.91%, roc -26.96%, High 29.24pts, DD -83.175pts, Max DD -92.525pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 593.5pts, +4.14pts, roi 0.69%, roc 0.82%, High 119.24pts, DD -115.1pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 159.5pts, -23.77pts, roi -14.9%, roc -15.84%, High 19.614pts, DD -43.75pts, Max DD -79.25pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 3,133.5pts, +1,312.81pts, roi 41.89%, roc 65.64%, High 1,464.65pts, DD -151.84pts, Max DD -435.75pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 881.5pts, -342.33pts, roi -38.83%, roc -85.58%, High 5.2pts, DD: -347.53pts, Max DD -347.53pts

Golf Totals: ROI -8.73%, ROC -14.97%

RACING: Tough at the top.

I think it’s fair to say that Northern Monkey sits at the top table when it comes to horse racing tipsters.  You don’t get a track record of success and reach the longevity that NMP has over the years without being.  How many “great” tipsters do we see come and go in what is essentially the blink of an eye?  I can think of several over the years which have briefly lit up the tipping skies with what seemed like supernova-esque brilliance, only not to still be operating less than a year later.

NMP, on the other hand, has seen bad spells and good.  A couple of years ago I think the service dropped out of the SBC’s Hall of Fame for a while before earning a re-entry.  Last year was very strong.

So through this current, incredibly frustrating (for Wayne, I mean) spell, we need to remember that it’s far better to be in with someone we’ve seen go through the bad times and come out the other side smiling, than with someone who hasn’t.  This current situation – and it’s not really even that bad (I’m less than half the allotted betting bank down) – is infuriating, frustrating, challenging and likely to test patience.  But this is precisely why we invest in experienced tipsters, and set up an appropriately sized betting bank.

Let’s see what next week brings.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 176pts, -1.28pts, roi -0.72%, roc -1.28%, High 0pts, DD -11.73pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 296.5pts, -30.434pts, roi -10.26%, roc -38.04%, High 0pts, DD -30.434pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 306pts, +387.53pts, roi 126.64%, roc 387.53%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 47.1%, ROC 112.19%

SPORTS: Footie is back!

Another VERY quiet week for the Sports guys with no darting action, the NFL season yet to get underway, and no Spanish league football – a rich source of bets for The Poacher.  We had five TP bets and a smidgeon of profit for the week, but next weekend we should really start to see more bets coming through.

So not a lot to report betting wise, but how good was it to see the Premier League back in action?  With a 2-0 win for the Mighty Arsenal, it was very good.  Very good indeed. 🙂

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 54.5pts, +8.11pts, roi 14.88%, roc 27.03%, High 8.11pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 155.5pts, +4.562pts, roi 2.93%, roc 11.4%, High 6.606pts, DD -2.044pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 6.27%, ROC 12%

GOLF: An overdue good week, and Golf Insider hits a winner!

I don’t know about you but during the tougher times, I often look out for little things that might signify a corner being turned.  A fluke goal in the 90th minute, your outsider holding off the strongly closing short favourite who’d got off to a slow start and then met trouble in running by a short head,…you get the point.

Well, getting paid out at Ladbrokes on the 8th spot in the DP Tour event this week on Paul Waring turned an already good week for Golf Insider into an even better one, and rescued what would have been a bad week for Weekly Golf Value.  I’ll take it!

Callum Shinkwin was another 20/1 winner for Golf Insider, who also had Andy Sullivan place at 66/1 in the same tournament, so despite blanking over in the States, this was a good week for GI.  Frankly, it needed one, and I really hope this is the start of a good run that will quickly eradicate this year’s losses and get the service back on track once again.

I couldn’t shake off the feeling that PGA Profit didn’t quite catch the breaks this week.  Backing the wrong Kim (ok, I take it that’s not unlucky), advising 2nd place finisher Sung-Jae Im win-only, and getting the place return on a 150/1 shot shared between about 33 golfers just feels a bit unlucky.

*Edit: I believe Si-Woo Kim (the wrong Kim actually withdrew – money back!)

And finally, I really felt for The Rainmaker, who hit another 2nd place (this time at 40s) in Connor Syme.  A break even week, but goodness a win would feel good for this service right now!

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 291pts, -47.685pts, roi -16.38%, roc -23.84%, High 29.24pts, DD -76.925pts, Max DD -92.525pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 573.5pts, +24.14pts, roi 4.2%, roc 4.82%, High 119.24pts, DD -95.1pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 153.5pts, -57.77pts, roi -37.63%, roc -38.51%, High 19.614pts, DD -77.75pts, Max DD -79.25pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 3,026.5pts, +1,401.15pts, roi 46.29%, roc 70.05%, High 1,464.65pts, DD -63.5pts, Max DD -435.75pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 841.5pts, -332.05pts, roi -39.45%, roc -83.01%, High 5.2pts, DD: -337.25pts, Max DD -338pts

Golf Totals: ROI -10.11%, ROC -16.66%

 

RACING: A busy week but frustration for some.

With the Goodwood and Galway Festivals last week, it was a busy time for our tipsters.  Bet Alchemist did very well and have almost clawed their way into profit for the first time this year (remember my figures may differ significantly from yours if you follow), helped by an 18/1 winner on the Thursday.

For Northern Monkey however, no such joy, and poor Wayne is beginning to feel somewhat frustrated.  He’s off on a well-deserved holiday but before departing, Wayne sent his members an email on Saturday evening headed, “Saturday whinge”.  I can absolutely see where he’s coming from, and my heart does go out to him at present.  On Saturday antepost bets on Regional alongside some multiples rolling onto him in the Steward’s Cup at prices of up to 33/1 could have netted 100+ points of profit.  With the nag going off at 13/2, you could say we had a fair chunk of value!

Alas, it was not to be, as Regional was slowly away, met trouble in running, before finishing well to finish third.  Unlucky, and devastatingly frustrating bearing in mind the profit a clear run may well have brought.  I was pleased not to have been able to watch the race.  It would have had me tearing my hair out, so how it must have played with Wayne’s emotions I shudder to think.

Just to rub a healthy dose of salt into a very sore wound, the saver bet finished 2nd at 20/1, by a short head.  You couldn’t make it up.

I hope Wayne manages to chill a bit on his holiday.  The results haven’t come as yet this year, but one thing is for sure, he’ll be working just as hard as always to turn it around, which I’m sure he will.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 176pts, -1.28pts, roi -0.72%, roc -1.28%, High 0pts, DD -11.73pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 296.5pts, -30.434pts, roi -10.26%, roc -38.04%, High 0pts, DD -30.434pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 306pts, +387.53pts, roi 126.64%, roc 387.53%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 47.1%, ROC 112.19%

SPORTS: Tumbleweed.

One bet.  One loser.

That’s the extent of the ‘action’ from the Sports portfolio last week.

So, with that being the case, and it being my birthday today (so I’m being taken out for dinner by my lovely wife), I’m going to keep this post short.

Very.

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 54.5pts, +8.11pts, roi 14.88%, roc 27.03%, High 8.11pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 150.5pts, +4.299pts, roi 2.85%, roc 10.74%, High 6.606pts, DD -2.307pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 6.29%, ROC 11.78%

GOLF: Papering over cracks.

After a blank last week Weekly Golf Value got back to winning ways by tipping up Henrik Stenson (50/1) on the revel LIV Tour tournament over the weekend.  It was so very nearly an amazing week for the one golf service that is really delivering this year – they also had a 50/1 shot on the DP Tour finish one shot back in second place and a 70/1 shot go into the final round joint top (he couldn’t maintain a challenge through the final round, sadly).

This is clearly excellent tipping, but the feeling of WGV papering over some fairly sizeable cracks within the foundations of the golf portfolio has grown stronger and stronger recently.

I really wish the service well, but two or three more poor tournaments from The Rainmaker is going to see my 400 point bank bust.  I’m struggling to remember when Tour Tips last got one to finish in the frame and the drawdown there has now exceeded 50% of the bank.  Golf Insider, despite two players finishing in the places this week, has once again reached a low point for the year to date and after a blank week, PGA Profit remains just a tad in the green overall but an ROI of 3.3% is nothing to shout about.

So you can see, WGV aside, things are pretty tough at the minute.  I know it’s been said so many times it’s become a cliche, but we really do need to remember that with golf betting, things can turn around so very quickly with a winner or two at big odds.  Time to keep the faith, and just go plodding on.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 281pts, -63.285pts, roi -22.52%, roc -31.64%, High 29.24pts, DD -92.525pts, Max DD -92.525pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 553.5pts, +18.79pts, roi 3.39%, roc 3.75%, High 119.24pts, DD -100.45pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 150pts, -59.27pts, roi -39.51%, roc -39.51%, High 19.614pts, DD -79.25pts, Max DD -79.25pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 2,935.5pts, +1,464.65pts, roi 49.89%, roc 73.23%, High 1,464.65pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -435.75pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 798pts, -332.8pts, roi -41.7%, roc -83.2%, High 5.2pts, DD: -338pts, Max DD -338pts

Golf Totals: ROI -12.35%, ROC -19.58%

RACING: Can Bookie Bashing do a good roast dinner?

287 Lucky 15 bets struck to one point level stakes.  379.6 points profit.  Return on Investment = 132.26%.

There are many things that go through my mind when I read the above stats.  The first of which, if you’ll excuse my French is, “Blo*dy Hell!”  Let’s give some kudos, love, and general salutations to the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker for enabling me to produce such results.  The commitment I feel like giving to these guys – who you realise put a HUGE amount of work into what they provide for their followers – possibly reaches the levels I’ve given to my wife of the last 23 years!  If I had to split from one, I reckon I’d have to give some serious thought as to which! (I’m joking my love, should you ever read this – as far as I know, no-one at BB can make a Sunday roast to rival yours. Although if they did…)

The second thought is that I’m doing something wrong; that I’ve somehow stumbled across some superior method of picking which +EV horses put up by the Tracker to include in my Lucky 15s, which has resulted in such incredible success.  I know this is ridiculous and clearly not true.  But when last week’s Lucky 15, that had three winners at 14/1, 9/1, and 5/1, plus a placed horse at 12s) came in, just for a minute or two I thought this must be the case.  For those wondering, I pick which horses to include based on a very simple suggestion you can read in the SBC’s full review of the service.  There really is nothing different, or clever, about what I do when it comes to picking my horses.

Which brings me to my third thought.  The SBC advertise the review of the Tracker with a headline of, “The Lucky 15 strategy with a 27% ROI” or something very similar.  If my BB Racing Tracker results were gained from an investment in shares within a certain sector of the stock market, I’d be expecting the 132% ROI “bubble” to burst any time soon – anyone remember the Tech Bubble crash of 2000?  In essence, performance level is going to have to start reverting to the mean (wherever that is – 27% ROI?) at some point, and I can’t shake off the feeling that time is likely to be soon.

And final thoughts…I’m going to have to change my strategy.  This run has proven to be too much for a couple of online books now.  I knew this was coming, but now I need to react.  How?  By using cash and going to the shops.  This in itself presents challenges.  I do work, after all.  But nothing worth pursuing in life comes without the need to overcome obstacles.  And to be honest, what BB are providing and it’s ongoing potential, is worth pursuing.

I’m pretty confident that Tom Brownlees and his crew at BB will fair pretty well when it comes around to the SBC Betting awards next year and receive due recognition.  To my mind at present, they should be up for honourable knighthoods, free season tickets at the Arsenal for life (there is no greater reward!), and Freedom of the City of London if they so choose.  Not only for the service they provide, but for what Tom did in hand with our very own SBC Pete, for what they did for all of us who used 10bet to back Trey Mullinax recently.

Guys, from me, for all your efforts… Thank you.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 148pts, -11.73pts, roi -7.92%, roc -11.73%, High 0pts, DD -11.73pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 276.875pts, -20.627pts, roi -7.44%, roc -25.33%, High 0pts, DD -20.627pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 287pts, +379.6pts, roi 132.26%, roc 379.6%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

SPORTS: On The Oche continues remarkable consistency

It was the World Matchplay Championship last week and On The Oche did what On The Oche does and went about issuing a small number of value bets that returned a decent enough profit.  It has now hot a new profit high for 2022.

Perhaps more remarkable is the tremendous consistency the service has hit this year.  I take it I’ve missed a few picks that have been sent out on Saturdays, so my figures are not going to replicate everyone else’s, but for me the “deepest” drawdown this year from 54.5 points staked, is, wait for it…-2.05 points!

That seems faintly ridiculous.  Not sure it even qualifies as a drawdown.  What it is though, is OTO’s consistency of approach, selectivity, and patience.  Well done, them!

I’m fully aware of course, that by typing these words I’m likely condemning OTO to the mother of all drawdowns.  I sincerely hope not, but if that happens, you fellow OTO disciples out there know who to blame.  I’m just glad none of you know where I live!

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 54.5pts, +8.11pts, roi 14.88%, roc 27.03%, High 8.11pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 149.5pts, +5.299pts, roi 3.54%, roc 13.24%, High 6.606pts, DD -1.307pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 6.75%, ROC 12.61%