You may recall that a couple of Bet Diary posts back, I mentioned that I would be using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to find my weekly golf bets more, and rely on the Weekly Golf Value tips less.  The reason for this planned shift was that after a couple of bookmaker accounts had started to impose staking restrictions I was finding it harder to get on every one of the WGV players at either the correct price, or to the correct stake, or to both!

I’ve been on this path before, and know where it leads.

The thinking behind using the Tracker to a greater extent is based on two factors.

1. I can set it up to take prices from bookmakers I can still get on with without any problem; and
2. I’ll not be following the crowd lumping on the same golfers at the same books as soon as the WGV email comes through (which might, you never know, slightly increase the chances of staying under bookmaker radars for a little bit longer than might otherwise be the case).

I’ve tended to look at the Tracker at around midday on the Wednesday, which is fairly close to the time I know Bookie Bashing do the same to produce the list of golfers for WGV members to back that week.  Unsurprisingly then, in the two weeks I’ve been doing this there has been some considerable overlap between the golfers I’ve backed and those put up in the WGV email.

Before doing this, I have had to mentally prepare myself.  It is inevitable that at some point, WGV is going to put up a winner that I haven’t backed, and I guess I’m not going to like that.  Interesting psychology this.  I’ve had to forcibly remind myself that of course, there will also be times when WGV don’t put up a winner that I’m on (more on this in a moment), but in the same way that an unlucky losing bet seems to remain in the conscious for longer than a lucky winning bet, so the negative thought process here feels like it is overriding the positive.  Which is daft.

WGV look to cover around 15% of the field in terms of win probability in any one event.  I am looking to do the same, but using the Tracker for myself.  Over time therefore, our results should look very similar as long as we are both taking value prices at roughly similar odds.

Another difference I’ve noticed over the past two weeks is the staking.  On the Bookie Bashing site, there is a Golf Staking Calculator that I use.  This has however, generally speaking, meant that I have been staking slightly less on certain golfers that WGV also put up.

This brings us to this last week, which has been something of a triumph for WGV/Bookie Bashing golf betting!

First, the European Tour event in France.  Dan Bradbury was put up by WGV, and had also picked him out as a suitable bet using the Tracker.  The difference between the two was that the stake WGV assigned to Bradbury was literally twice the size of mine, and the recommended book was one offering 125/1…that I can’t use.  Instead, I was on at 90/1 (one reason I imagine the stake was lower, as an iteration of Kelly staking is used whereby a larger stake is assigned when there is perceived to be a higher level of value within any given bet).  I’m never going to complain about a 90/1 winner!  I merely point this out to illustrate where using the Tracker may have a different outcome than simply following the prescriptive WGV list.

So, a great golf betting weekend.  But, it was only half way through…

On to the US tournament over in Utah.  I was on rookie Matt McCarty from the Tracker.  WGV was not.

McCarty went into the final round two shots ahead and there was really no sign of rookie nerves throughout the last 18 holes.  He won by three shots, and I was on another winner, this time at 50/1!  An example of where using the Tracker has paid off.  Like we said above, there will be times it works the other way, and it’ll be important to remember this win when that happens.

A great golf betting weekend turned into an exceptional one.  Happy days.

Overall, last week was a pretty decent one, helped in no small part by the golfing success.  It would be unfair to say that it was only the golf that contributed however.  It was generally speaking, a decent all round portfolio performance that has clawed back about two thirds of the previous week’s sharp and horrible losses.

More on that however, in the next post.  In the meantime, here are the figures…

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 445pts, -0.19pts, roi -0.04%, roc -0.01%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 452pts, +370.1pts, roi 81.88%, roc 18.5%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 339pts, -250.8pts, roi -73.98%, roc -12.54%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 1,159.52pts, -548.07pts, roi -47.26%, roc -27.4%.

The Value Machine: Staked 3,160pts, +48.34pts, roi 1.52%, roc 2.41%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 2,063pts, -124.43pts, roi -6.03%%, roc -6.22%.

Trial Service: Staked 370.5pts, +136.16pts, roi 36.75%, roc 20.17%

TOTAL: Staked 7,781.27pts, -359.82pts, roi -4.62%, roc -3.78%.

Just following on, in a way, from the previous post and the experience of Bookie Basher Tom in being subject to completely unnecessary personal abuse after posting his Vlog.

This isn’t concerning Tom directly, but I couldn’t help but think of what happened there whilst in the Discord channel of a service that I’m currently trialling.  The strategy they use is very definitely high variance.  The sort where you see and expect a lot of losing bets before hitting a big win that wipes out the losses and then some.

There were a number of messages on different threads from one chap, bemoaning that having set aside a not inconsiderable set of money for this service, after two days he had staked a pretty significant proportion of his bank and had suffered losses.  His displeasure was clear, as he cast doubt on the efficacy of the strategy and – to my mind at least – just staying the right line of calling it a con.  The use of the word “beware”, aimed at others in the channel who are also trialling the service, is what gave me this impression.  Maybe I’m reading too much into it, maybe I’m not.

The replies from “Admin” were consistent, incredibly polite, and showed admirable patience.  Far more patience than I’d have been minded to provide, I don’t mind saying, so credit to them for that!  And look, who knows?  Maybe there isn’t an edge (although I’m pretty darned sure there is), which is why I’m trialling to seriously small stakes (not much more than paper trading, if I’m honest), but to give it two days?  It was the line, “winning in the long run….I’ve heard that before”, that finally did me in and I had switch off the laptop.

On a serious note, I do worry about the thinking with which some people go into betting.  This chap professed to have decades of betting experience.  Got to admit I was struggling to see much evidence of it based on his comments, approach and attitude.

In other news, this week so far has been about stopping the rot and starting to claw back the losses that hit last week.  The Value Machine, after a couple of very solid days has clambered just about into green territory for the month, and a couple of winning bets at World Grand Prix of Darts sourced from the Bookie Bashing x180s Tool have provided a little relief too.  What would really do the trick is a big win on the golf come Sunday.  Oh how sweet that would be!

What has been frustrating has been the inevitable impact of this latest international football break (yaaaaawn!!) has had on turnover.  But what can I do about that, eh?  Nothing, nothing at all.

Have a good weekend, folks.

You know that when you look at the past week, the highlight is that by using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker yourself and not just relying on the Weekly Golf Value bets (as mentioned last week), you’ve managed a slightly smaller loss than would otherwise have been the case…it’s not been a great week.

To be honest, I’d snap your hand off for “not great”.  The word I would use instead to describe the past seven days or so, is the title of this post!

We all know these spells happen from time to time, but it makes them no less painful to endure when they do.  It’s been a horrible week, with not one tipster or strategy used generating any profit, and a number producing a pretty sharp loss.  Diversification is supposed to stop such acute sharp, short term swings, but every now and then, the principles of diversification get trampled on and destroyed.

From Sunday, things have stabilised a little.  It feels akin to having a bad, open wound.  Somehow I’ve managed to stem the flow of blood, but I still need to get to hospital.  The losses are the flow of blood – since Sunday I’ve managed to scrabble a profit of about £50, which feels like it’s bought me the time for the ambulance to arrive.

I’m exaggerating a little, of course.  The drawdown only amounts to 10% of the overall betting bank, so let’s keep things in perspective.  It’s just when that 10% drop hits over the course of just three or four days, then it feels like quite a hard hit.  Suddenly you’re depositing more money into more accounts, and that always makes things feel worse.  I guess that’s a consequence of never wanting to hold too much money with any one company for any lengthy period of time.

I’ll post the figures below, as usual.  I’m not going to go into any detail about how any individual service or strategy has performed.  1. What’s the point? and 2. It’s too soon! Too soon, I tell you!

What I am going to mention is the total and complete waste of oxygen cowards who refuse to take responsibility for their own actions and who instead scapegoat someone else are.  Bookie Bashing Tom had just started a 25 day series of daily Vlogs, aimed at being entertaining (I find Tom always is, hence why the BB Podcast is a must listen) and educational.  Here we have anyone at all able to listen to a renowned professional gambler talk through his bets, explain some of the edges, and go into his thought processes.  Genuinely, I reckon if instead of a Vlog series someone like this ran “seminars”, marketed them aggressively, and delivered the same content, they could charge a lot of money for attending.  I’ve seen it happen in the property world.

Instead, we could get this insight for free.  Every day for a near-month.  What an education that could have been, but instead some brainless, selfish, good-for-nothing bell-ends (hyphenated?) have seemingly ruined it for everyone else by submitting Tom to vitriolic personal abuse!  Seriously, what sort of person do you have to be?  As a result, Tom (and I do not blame him) has at best put a temporary pause on issuing these Vlogs, and at worst has just brought a halt to them altogether. I don’t blame him.  I’d do the same.

I don’t know any detail.  Last Wednesday was a bit of a shocker with almost all of a relatively large number of bets I placed that I’d derived from the BB Tools I use being losing bets.  I noticed that there was (unsurprisingly I guess, bearing in mind the same source) a fair amount of overlap between the bets I had placed and those that Tom was talking about and striking himself.  Did people just blindly follow him, do their money and then let loose with all that nonsense aimed at Tom?  That’s my guess.  Either way, hurling crap at someone from behind a screen is to my mind, an offence that should be punished by public shaming so cowardly is it.  Bring back the stocks and rotten tomatoes, I say.

October Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 400pts, +31.5pts, roi 7.87%, roc 2.1%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 240pts, -47pts, roi -19.95%, roc -2.39%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 182pts, -155pts, roi -85.16%, roc -7.75%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 960.06pts, -427.8pts, roi -44.55%, roc -21.39%.

The Value Machine: Staked 1,810pts, -171.35pts, roi -9.46%, roc -8.56%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 1,536pts, -224.82pts, roi -14.63%%, roc -11.24%.

Trial Service: Staked 7.5pts, +47pts, roi 626.66%, roc 6.96%

TOTAL: Staked 4,927.81pts, -948.55pts, roi -19.24%, roc -9.98%.

What do we think is the most common mistake made by folk who want to elevate their betting to a “serious” level and who rely on the skills and abilities of others to do so?  In other words, those who follow tipsters – where do we err most frequently?

From personal experience, I reckon there are a number of “areas of weakness” that I had to really work on.  I made so many mistakes that looking back now, make me cringe.

Paying too much for a service in subscription fees in relation to the size of bank we have, or not setting up a separate betting bank in the first place are two errors I hear a lot about.  Choosing to follow a tipster whose approach to betting isn’t psychologically suited to our own risk profile is another; ie. if you really struggle with long losing runs then starting with a golf service or a horse racing tipster whose tips average out at 16/1 and longer isn’t likely to end well.  Trust me, I’ve been there, done that!

I hate to say it, but jumping in bed with a tipster who has no proofed track record, can provide no detailed breakdown of performance, relies on non-independent affiliates to drum up a customer base…we’ve all been there (have we?…tell me we have!).  Actually, maybe not nowadays, but back in the day…

Anyway, the point is, is that there are loads of mistakes we can make and a lot of traps we can fall into.

But, I reckon the most common error I see being made is finding a tipster with a clearly defined and statistically proven edge, and then not allowing him or her the requisite time for the edge to manifest itself.

And I get it.  You join a new service, and you get off to a losing start.  No matter how much you have read about it before committing, ingested and digested the reviews, done the statistical research and absorbed the findings of Monte Carlo simulations (all framed within the context perhaps, of a service that has successfully been generating profit for years)…until you start benefitting yourself it is almost impossible for you to reach the point of complete “buy in”.

There’s nothing worse than joining a service only to get off to a losing start.  Which is exactly what has happened to me with The Value Machine.  Actually, the first week or two was really profitable, and then a drawdown hit.  Which in some ways, is even harder to take.

SBC Towers received an email from a member who, reading my Bet Diary report, asked if the The Value Machine edge should not have shown itself after the number of bets that have been placed (for context, I average at just over 30 bets per day and have done since the start of last month).  That’s around 900 bets for September, and yet I’m in negative territory.

I’m not a statistician.  I’m no mathematician either.  But from all the reading I’ve done over the years I understand that this isn’t a big enough data sample of bets from which to draw any conclusions.  Not when the average odds of the bets is 5.86/1 (for those interested, I set my TVM parameters at finding selections between Evens and 10/1).

Trust me, when your drawdown reaches 40% of the betting bank with a service that you’re yet to make any money from, it’s hard to think like this.  And I’ll tell you something.  If this had been me when starting out on my betting journey, I reckon I would have quit, or come very close to.  Which would have bene the complete wrong thing to do.

Others, who have a different psychological profile to me, may not batter an eyelid in the same circumstances.  The only reason I’m not tearing at my hair and running around shaking my fists up at the Gambling Gods and declaring “Infamy! Infamy!  They all have it in for me!” (Carry On Cleo), is through experience and having seen/made this mistake countless times before.

Which is why I think it vital to have certain rules in place to provide a framework.  Something that provides guidance and perhaps takes guesswork out of any decision making process around deciding whether or not to continue with a service that is struggling. This could be when starting with a service and having got off to a sticky start, or for a service you’ve been with for a long term and have benefited from financially.

My “framework” is very simple.  I track all current drawdowns, and maximum drawdowns suffered to date with any one tipster.  If at any point, a drawdown reaches the point that is equal to the size of the bank that was initially set aside for it, then that’s it.  A line is drawn.

So say, for sake of easy numbers, you sign up to a new service and assign to it a bank of 100 points.  In the first two years, you make a 300 point profit.  At that point there is a horrible drawdown that reduces your profit by 200 points (the size of your original bank) – that’s when I would quit.  I’m still 100 points to the good, but the drawdown has reached the original bank size of 200 points.

As for The Value Machine specifically.  This is a service with an exceptionally long, proven track record.  But looking at its history, it is clear that – much like golf betting – it is very common to go weeks without making any progress and then see a spurt of profit that takes members to a new profit high point.  With the odds profile as it is, we need to see a lot more bets come through before having any sort of expectation that the edge really should have made itself evident, buy hasn’t (with the inference that there is no edge any longer).

Compare to WinnerOdds Football.  I don’t think anyone can deny the edge that exists there.  And yet here I am, 1,260 bets in (at much, much shorter average odds per bet) at an ROI of just 0.96%, way below the long term that sits around the 5% mark.

The conclusion?

If we’re with a service that ticks all the right boxes in terms of it having been analysed and proven to have a long term edge, then we need to give it ample time for that edge to manifest itself to our benefit.  And that means striking a LOT of bets.  More than I’ve placed myself for The Value Machine and WinnerOdds Football.

I have no doubts at all about the existence of the edge with these services.  My fear comes more from being able to keep (or not!) bookmaker accounts open for long enough for me to be able to profit well from the edge that exists.  That’s a completely different mindset.  My safety net in terms of winning or losing comes from the betting bank and funds I’ve set aside – reach the point where a drawdown hits the points betting bank assigned…that’s when I’m out, and not before (unless the accounts go).  That’s my way of avoiding the mistake I made several times before the penny dropped…the mistake of quitting something really good, far too soon.

I delayed doing the weekly Monday figures update, saving it for yesterday’s totals to be counted up and instead doing an end of month review post today.

First, the final figures for September.

ROI: 5.03%.

Bank Growth (ROC): 11.52%

That’s not too shabby a month, and ultimately provided a welcome relief from the purgatory that was August.  And yet, in some ways, September is one that has somehow felt like a month that got away.  It’s hard to shake the feeling that with just a shade of fortune being for me and not against me, it would have been a bit of a stormer.

What do I mean by this?  Simply that there are a few bets that didn’t win, that really on another day, would have.  You can say that all the time when betting, of course.  I realise that.  And over time, these things all even out and we get the “lucky” wins that really boost profitability and provide that lovely warm feeling that you can do know wrong (whilst also knowing that it ain’t going to last!).  Don’t know about you, but there are days, just occasionally, when almost everything you back seems to win, with all the fine margins going for you.  All I’m saying is that this past month, when it came to fine margins, they went the other way.  It happens.

Drum roll please, for Tipster/Service of the Month…

SYS ANALYST!

What a fantastic month for Allan, and a strong rebound from what had been a testing period beforehand.

Staked 641.8pts, +625.98pts, ROI 97.53% (!), ROC 31.29%.

Incredible figures from a month that barely had a losing day, a couple of really big priced winners, and all win bets (the majority) backed using the Exchanges.  There was one biggie each way winner that I used a bookmaker for, but other than that the majority of the profit is net of 2% commission with no danger of having accounts restricted.  Fantastic stuff.

Now let’s take a look at the rest, in order of decreasing profitability.

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 8,269pts, +518.67pts, ROI 6.27%, ROC 25.93%.

Like Sys Analyst, WO Footie bounced back strongly from a poor period of underperformance.  The ROI this month much closer to where my long term expectations lie, although overall that parameter is still languishing somewhat with more catching up to do.  The first week of the month was my most profitable so far, and was followed up with two more weeks ending in the black and just the final weekend dragging things down a little.

My concern, as ever, is ongoing viability with bookmakers due to the nature of some of the games/leagues we’re playing in.  To counter that, the actual liability per bet to the bookmaker isn’t actually that high, despite the high stake size because often, the odds are very short.  I’m hoping this will help but, significantly, I have had to wave goodbye to two accounts this past month.  When a certain other book goes by the wayside, then I have a problem.  Which leads me on to…

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 1,200pts, +251.51pts, ROI 20.95%, ROC 16.76%.

A month that epitomises what to expect from this style of betting (Lucky 15s).  One bet, with all four teams winning, generated a profit of just shy of 400 points.  The total for the month was 251.51.  As these figures demonstrate, the strategy here is that knowing we have a good edge, we place as many Lucky 15s as we can, endure a lot of losing slips or small wins, just waiting for the big one to land.  Historic records show that these hit frequently enough to ensure an overall high ROI…and that is exactly what has happened through September.

Despite the figures, I’m just a little disappointed not to have been able to get more bets down.  An international break early in the month didn’t help, and with 80 bets struck, I fell significantly short of my turnover target.  Note to self – must do better!

Bookie Bashing “Value Bets”: Staked 2,260pts, +219.66pts, ROI 9.71%, ROC 10.98%.

A fabulous last weekend/yesterday really pulled things around for bets that until then had made a small loss all told, into one that finished with double digit ROC.  Bets on Cards and Enhanced Specials did the trick.  One ES on the Bournemouth/Southampton match last night was HUGE value…when the sixth corner was given to land this particular bet (after that *!@!!* Michael Oliver didn’t give what was such an obvious corner that would have made it six, meaning a relatively anxious few minutes hoping for the sixth that just weren’t necessary!) it was happy days indeed!

Think I mentioned it last week, but really enjoying finding the value bets for myself.  Something just so very rewarding about it. It’s the same as the feeling you get from a perfectly executed cover drive that you hold the follow through for just to pose, and not even have to consider running as you watch the ball scoot to the boundary.  Mind you, it’s been a while since one of those, got to say.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 588pts, -231.5pts, ROI -39.37%, ROC -11.57%.

Really not much to comment on what is a pretty average golf betting month for any service that specialises in this particular sport.  We go through periods without winners.  Fact. (see comments above on the EP Tracker…we just keep placing the bets and wait for the big one)

Just one thing of note.  I had to replace one of the WGV golfers last week with my own from the Tracker as my lad’s accounts start to be restricted.  I can see this trend strengthening where each week more golfers are sourced by myself from the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker.  I have no issue with that, whatsoever.  In fact, I may start to do this more moving forward anyway as it means getting different bets on different players at a different time to the WGV subscriber base.

The Value Machine: Staked 9,590pts, -291.43pts, ROI -3.03%, ROC -14.57%

Well, what a ride this has been!  From being very nicely up to a drawdown that reached the equivalent of 40% of the bank at its lowest (so far) mark, with a tiny bounce back in the right direction yesterday.  Two drastically poor Saturdays have done for me.

Lots of bets, and a bit of a grind which is always more difficult when not winning, of course.  I have been asked if after this number of points staked (959 individual bets), should the edge – if there is one – ought not to have revealed itself?  The short answer is ‘No’, but my next post will go into this in more detail, so that’s all I want to say about that here.

Like WinnerOdds, my bigger fear here is losing accounts, although Kieran’s stated strategy of lots of bets at relatively low stakes is one I’m following with this service.  Fingers crossed then, we get a good run from the bookmakers.  Time will tell.  I do limit the number of bets I strike with any one particular company each day too, which is easy to do as so many betting opportunities come through.

So there we have it.  Autumn hasn’t got off to a bad start.  Let’s see what October brings.