At the risk of offending one or two, it’s always good to beat Spurs.  I’ll just leave that there.

The last week has felt a bit topsy turvy, but when everything had been settled late Sunday night, the seven days had produced a profit equating to a shade under 3% bank growth at an ROI of 6.9%.  That’s not exactly spectacular, but nor is it too shabby.  The ride to get there though, was a pretty bumpy one.

Let’s start with the positive and WinnerOdds Football.  The vast  majority of the action, as you might expect, came over the weekend and whilst Sunday was essentially break even, Saturday’s profits came to nearly 22% bank growth on their own.  There were some pretty hefty bets in there too, at short odds, but it would take only one or two of them to go down and we’d be looking at a very different picture.  That’s not what happened though, so all good.

It’s going to be interesting to keep an eye on turnover over the next week or so, with my adopting the policy I mentioned last week of not looking to strike bets on matches happening 48 or more hours ahead.  I know this is going to mean missing some fairly sizeable chunks of EV, but am prepared to make the sacrifice in the interest of keeping accounts viable for longer.  This might not work, of course.  It may be I’m better just getting as much turnover through as I possibly can whilst I have the chance, and there is a lot to be said for that approach too.

Really good to see Sys Analyst bouncing back and am delighted for Allan.  The trend was started last week, and continued through this.  Three days with bets, and each of them profitable.  A good priced each way place on Friday, and a winner on each of Saturday and Sunday meant an excellent week and the figures for the month to date are something to gaze upon with adoration and admiration in equal measure.  All short term of course, but so good to see the numbers going in the right direction.

The Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker has been the epitome of something “going quietly about its business”.  No spectacular all four up Lucky 15s to boast about, but a couple with three.  Without any outstanding return from one bet, it is sailing along at an ROI of 41.5% this month, and has generated 11.6% bank growth.  If making money from betting was always this easy and smooth, it would likely grow to be a little boring.  I suppose it’s a tedium I could get used to.

Managed to hit a decent number of Value Bets derived from the Bookie Bashing Tools on Sunday, primarily on the Any Time Goalscorer market and some Combo Bets involving Cards and Corners.  And added volume seemed to do the trick with an area that I had been struggling with just a touch this month.  Anyway, almost all the losses have now been clawed back and I do enjoy finding value myself.  Makes me feel useful.

A break even week for Weekly Golf Value with three placed from the three events we played in.  Thought it was four until I realised that I’d taken Alex Fitzpatrick to eight places instead of ten – he finished in a tie for 9th!  One of the placed golfers was at 110/1 which produced a decent enough return and overall, I finished just the red side of the break even line.  Certainly not much damage done at all.

The one service to lose anything like a significant sum last week in the end was The Value Machine, although hardly in any disastrous way.  The first half of the week saw some fairly significant losses, but a fair chunk of these were recouped through the second half, despite my not being in a position on Saturday to put any bets at all down.  I think what I’ve learnt about TVM is that with a large number of bets each day, the bad days can feel pretty darned bad, and the good days pretty darned good.  Losing runs may not last that long in terms of time, but they can hit in a fairly sharp way.  But then so do the winning runs.  I think, what I’m trying to say in a very roundabout, incoherent way, is that it can feel a bit up and down.  Even with the down this week though, TVM has still provided 10% bank growth in just two weeks.  Which is an up.  Not a down.  Just has felt down.  And then felt up.

You get the point.

September Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 420pts, 174.32pts, roi 41.5%, roc 11.62%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 384pts, -59.5pts, roi -15.49%, roc -2.97%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 177.8pts, +343.06pts, roi 192.94%, roc 17.15%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 533.1pts, -19.35pts, roi -3.62%, roc -0.96%.

The Value Machine: Staked 4,190pts, +200.09pts, roi 4.77%, roc 10%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 2,964pts, +455.21pts, roi 16.89%, roc 22.76%.

TOTAL: Staked 8,398.9pts, +1,095.83pts, roi 13.04%, roc 9.52%.

I’ve been following WinnerOdds Football for 18 weeks.

Nine of those weeks have been profitable, so it shouldn’t really come as much of a surprise that all in, I’m at break even point.  In fact, I’m ridiculously close to break even, with an overall ROI of -0.04%.

Across those 18 weeks, I’ve struck 1,027 bets.  507 have won, 509 have lost.  And this is where it gets interesting.

Using the WO tool that allows us to look at how the “Average User” has fared over defined periods of time, I can  see that over the same 18 week period, Mr or Ms Average User experienced 10 winning weeks and eight losing.

He or she struck fewer bets – 637.  323 of those were winners, 308 losers and the outcome is a positive ROI of 3.35%.

What does this tell us?

That unfortunately, I’ve been the victim of negative variance, but not to any level anywhere near outside of the norm.

I do feel unfortunate, got to admit.  In their FAQ section, WO have this to say on the subject of when it is reasonable to judge their performance, ie. over the long-term:

“At WO, we set the long-term at 1000 bets, because as you can see in the betting history, the chances of being at a loss after 1000 bets are minimal.”

Well guys, I am at a loss.  But don’t worry, I’m not coming for you! 🙂

I’m genuinely not concerned at performance levels thus far.  I’m confident that it will improve, and although we’re obviously talking very, very short term now, September has got off to a pleasing start.  Let’s just hope it’s the start of a sustained profitable period.

If I’m being totally honest, I do harbour some concerns over viability.  I rely on the family’s account with one prominent online bookmaker more than I would ideally like, and the fear has to be being shut down before making a decent profit.  High turnover should help with this, but it hasn’t over the last 1,000 bets!  Do I feel comfortable putting a bet down on a team playing in the South Korean League 2 in a match not being played for five days?  No.  No, I don’t.  Because surely not many Traders are going to turn a blind eye for that long.

But this is doom and gloom stuff, the sort you often read in Discord channels where people who don’t necessarily reveal the whole picture criticise and whinge and generally give the impression something is a complete waste of time because they haven’t won for two days.  A lesson I learnt very quickly was to pick carefully who you listen to or take advice from, and who from their public utterances can be trusted as being fair and balanced.  Outside of that, just do things yourself and draw your own conclusions on something,

Anyway, let’s see what happens next with WO Football.  Hopefully, more of what I’ve enjoyed over the last few days.

As for yesterday’s betting, we had a couple of Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Trackers complete with a resultant small profit.  An overdue poor day for The Value Machine recording a -107.5 point loss. one winner from two Any Time Goalscorer bets sourced from the Bookie Bashing Player xG Tool (Value Bets) in the France match last night, and one losing bet from one for WinnerOdds Football.

Overall then, a loss of -88.33 points across the board, or ROC of -0.76%.

Updated figures below:

September Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 105pts, 75.74pts, roi 72.13%, roc 5.04%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 94pts, -44.5pts, roi 11.39-47.34%, roc -2.22%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 55.8pts, +191.3pts, roi 342.83%, roc 9.56%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 134pts, -80.21pts, roi -59.85%, roc -4.01%.

The Value Machine: Staked 2,410pts, +308.59pts, roi 12.8%, roc 15.42%

Winner Odds Football: Staked 929pts, +212.85pts, roi 22.91%, roc 10.64%.

TOTAL: Staked 3,727.8pts, +665.77pts, roi 17.85%, roc 5.78%.

I’m very aware I still need to write a post providing some thoughts on the Value Bets derived from the various Tools and Trackers at Bookie Bashing, and on WinnerOdds Football.  That will come very shortly, tomorrow with a fair wind.  But for today, I want to bring everything up to speed for the first week of September.

Thankfully, after a pretty ropey July and August, things have taken something of an upturn.  This is good.  We like upturns.  We don’t like what comes before an upturn, because to be an upturn you have to have a down turn.  Down turns?  No-one is a fan, eh?

After my moaning about how the break in domestic football to accommodate international games was having a detrimental impact on turnover, it was fantastic to see high turnover The Value Machine enjoy what can only be described as a ‘stormer’!  Loads of bets each day – at least 30, sometimes 50+ – meant turnover was something I needn’t have worried about.  Not only that, but the results were excellent too.  Up to full stakes from the first of the month, and now 416 points up at an ROI of 21%.

A note of caution however, more to myself than aimed at anyone else.  An ROI of 21% is WAY above what I am hoping for long term.  I’m targeting somewhere between 7 and 9% ROI over time, so clearly the pace set by last week’s performance is unsustainable.  I’ve determined that I should enjoy this rate of return whilst it lasts.

The other big winner last week was WinnerOdds Football, which after a fairly torrid few weeks enjoyed something of a bounce back.  What you have just read for The Value Machine, rinse and repeat for WO Footie.  An ROI on the week of 26.5% is way outside the margins of expectation, and is an example of very shot term positive variance if ever I’ve seen one.  But after a period of negative variance, it is most welcome indeed.

Despite a chronic lack of bets, the Lucky 15s from the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker actually produced some profit with, put simply, more teams winning.  None at particularly big odds, but enough to ensure a small pay out on a few tickets and one Lucky 15 saw all four teams win, albeit at shorter prices.  Still, after what has been a pretty testing period, I’m quite happy with a bit of steady if not spectacular.

Finally, just the one player landing in the frame from the one tournament given the treatment by Weekly Golf Value, and due to the number of places available at the bookmaker I was able to get on with, I had to share the place returns on that.  Still, no real damage done on the week.

And in some ways leaving the best until last, a lovely winner for Sys Analyst on Sunday.  Tribalist, running at Longchamp was the 25/1 SP winner, but I was fortunate enough to get 36.0 on the Exchange. Some I believe, were able to get even bigger, but I sure ain’t complaining!  I really hope, for Allan’s sake as well as my own, that Sys Analyst really builds on this now and before we know it, reaches a new profit high point.

The only dark spot last week were the Value Bets, and I managed to exacerbate the non-performance issue by being what can only be described as a 24 carat plonker!  Who didn’t check that Marcus Thuram wasn’t actually in the starting 11 for France’s match against Italy?  Who thought he was taking a great price of 2.11 for him to have at least one shot on target?  Who was stung by Thuram coming on with about 15 minutes to go?  And who was the muppet who clearly had his eyes shut when shooting because he managed two shots in that limited time, but neither of them were accurate enough to trouble the goalkeeper.

Only for one of those questions above, is the answer not, ‘Me’! 🙁

September Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 75pts, 55.36pts, roi 73.81%, roc 3.69%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 94pts, -44.5pts, roi 11.39-47.34%, roc -2.22%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 55.8pts, +191.3pts, roi 342.83%, roc 9.56%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 106pts, -106pts, roi -100%, roc -5.3%.

Winner Odds Football: Staked 902pts, +239.85pts, roi 26.59%, roc 11.99%.

TOTAL: Staked 3,202.8pts, +752.1pts, roi 23.48%, roc 6.54%.

In this post, some thoughts on Weekly Golf Value and Sys Analyst.

Starting with the sport that ruins good walks.  As far as WGV is concerned, I could just as well simply copy and paste my comments in yesterday’s post around the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker.  Things are going smoothly if we look at longer term performance and year to date figures just north of 15% ROI.

15% is lower than the long, long term numbers but is a level of return not to be sniffed at.  A service cannot be said to be enduring a disappointing year when it’s performing to a level of 15%!

It would be nice if we could finish the year off with a winner or two, he says, stating the bloomin’ obvious.  A 20% ROI 2024 would be another excellent year.  As for August, it was essentially a break even month, which I think feels worse than it should because for such a period throughout August, it was the one service producing the goods after an early winner.  Unfortunately the profit from that was eroded completely, but as we know, this is all a part of the golf betting game.

It’s a little bit different when it comes to Sys Analyst.

Before I continue, I want to make one or two things extremely clear:

1. This is a top drawer service that has been churning out excellent profits for a long, long time.
2. The chap who runs the service, Allan, is a highly experienced bettor and tipster who has seen losing runs come and then go, recovering strongly from each and every one of them.
3. Because of Point 2 above, he retains my complete confidence.

I think my only concern here is that it feels like the number of bets has dropped in more recent times.  Looking at the latest results spreadsheet that was sent through on July 29th, I can see that there were 753 bets issued between July 28th 2023 and July 27th 2024 – exactly one year.

Through the previous 12 months, there were 1,218 bets.

My feeling is that one likely cause of this trend is Allan’s desire to provide the best possible service to his clientele.  He is – and has always been – keen to ensure that the prices he is quoting his bets at are realistically achievable, and this has meant targeting higher quality racing carrying more liquid markets, plus tipping at a time when the markets have matured and bookmakers are less likely to have their hackles raised by someone sticking more than a tenner down!  Let’s not forget too, and this is vital, Allan is tipping in a way that allows those that use the Exchanges to profit.

I’ve seen this pattern before, in old favourite The Value Bettor, with Andrew there being equally as conscientious as Allan is now.  He too altered his service to target exclusively the major races and meetings.  It means that turnover drops, and therefore the individual or service becomes more susceptible to losing runs lasting longer (in terms of time), simply because they take longer to recover from.  I have an inkling this is what we’re seeing with Sys Analyst.  I could be wrong, but to me anyway, it makes sense.

Next post we’ll explore the Bookie Bashing derived Value Bets, and WinnerOdds Football.

What a month!  Not enjoyable.  At all.

And just when you think we’re entering a time of year when turnover could be reasonably expected to really pick up, we have an international footie break, bringing the top European leagues to a grinding halt.  To be fair, with Winner Odds Football, a lot of the picks are in minor leagues around the world, so the interminable interlull shouldn’t have that much of an impact.  I certainly hope not.  But with the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker, that’s a different story.  A lot of the teams I back in my Lucky 15s are sourced from the EPL and other top level European leagues, and that’s not going to happen until proper football is back in two weeks time.  As if to emphasise this issue, Monday and Tuesday of this week have seen me able to get down just one – yes, one – L15.

I hate international breaks.  With. A. Passion.

Let’s take a look at the August figures:

August Figures (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 630pts, -132.7pts, roi -21.06%, roc -8.84%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 904pts, -16pts, roi -1.76%, roc -1.06%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 492.7pts, -230.7pts, roi -46.82%, roc -15.38%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 691pts, -40.77pts, roi -5.9%, roc -2.71%.

Winner Odds Football: Staked 3,455pts, -259.97pts, roi -7.52%, roc -17.33%.

TOTAL: Staked 6,741.75pts, -605.26pts, roi -8.97%, roc -8.07%.

What I want to do is write a series of posts that explores each of the above separately.  Being honest, with one or two of them I do have some slight niggles.  Nothing at this stage that would make me think about dropping them.  But it should be a good exercise in noting the sort of things we should be always looking out for that might raise some real alarms and provide serious pause for thought.  At the very least, double checking that there are no real warning signs about a service, strategy, or tipster, is always good practice.  A constant and ongoing audit, if you like.

Let’s start today with the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker.

In terms of alarm bells, there are none.  It is as simple as that.  I’m convinced that all that has happened here is that we’re a victim of variance across a very small data set.  The ROI for the year remains north of 15%, which is around about where I would set the target for the Lucky 15 strategy anyway.

The season has not yet really got underway properly, a point exacerbated by the dreaded interlull, and so the aim of getting four to five Lucky 15s down per day has proven to be somewhat ambitious.  This will change, of that I’m sure, and when it does I’ve no reason to think that results won’t continue to be strong.

It should be noted too, that the deficit for August is nothing that wouldn’t be totally eradicated (and then some) by one good Lucky 15 return.  In terms of concerns, there really is nothing to see here.

The next Bet Diary post will look at Weekly Golf Value and Sys Analyst.

Back soon with that.