August is proving to be a miserable month, which really isn’t how it should be.  August is a time for summer holidays, sunny weather at home if you’ve not gone away, ripe strawberries and chilled white wine whilst enjoying long evenings luxuriating in the warmth.

Is it b*lloc*s!  It’s barely got above 15 degrees, the covers down at the cricket ground have been on more than they’ve been off, the strawberries are hard and horrible because there’s not been enough sun to ripen them, and I’ve been losing money!  Not what I was hoping for, really.  Oh, well.  It will soon be cold and dark by 5.00pm, eh?

After such a strong start to the month for Weekly Golf Value, the profits have somewhat dwindled and after just one golfer to finish in the (shared) places last weekend, the ROI is down to 11.3%.  In itself, this isn’t too shabby, and represents the final figure for August with this week’s tournaments ending on the 1st September.

It’s been interesting, and something of a roller coaster ride following new entry The Value Machine.  After reaching a new high and an ROI of 8%, a bad day has brought that right down again.  I’m managing to get between 30 and 50 bets per day on and I’ve seen enough to be encouraged.  Although I’ve found there is a need to get bets on efficiently, it’s not like the odds crash immediately or anything.  I did find last Saturday morning the prices went much quicker than at other times.  It will be interesting to see if this pattern repeats itself this week.  Anyway, so far I’m in the black, which for this month is something of a novelty.

The “best” of the ‘losers’ this month has been the Value Bets sourced from the various Bookie Bashing tools and tracker.  The ROI of -0.11% tells you that these have mounted something of a recovery and have almost broken level now.  A bit of luck over the weekend and we may end up with green figures in the spreadsheet and not red.

The Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker has so far this season failed to find the consistency in performance that was so enjoyable last, and as a result is currently tracking at-41% ROI and has reached its deepest drawdown for me since starting with it last December.

The month was rather summed up by Sys Analyst last weekend, as mentioned in the last blog post.  Suffice to say, both it and WinnerOdds Football have very much disappointed.  Let’s hope September brings happier times for both.

August Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 450pts, -184.69pts, roi -41.04%, roc -12.31%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 676pts, +77pts, roi 11.39%, roc 5.13%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 441.7pts, -254.2pts, roi -57.55%, roc -16.94%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 651pts, -0.77pts, roi -0.11%, roc -0.05%.

Winner Odds Football: Staked 3,455pts, -259.97pts, roi -7.52%, roc -17.33%.

TOTAL: Staked 6,741.75pts, -605.26pts, roi -8.97%, roc -8.07%.

I really hope I’m not about to offend anyone…

So I’m driving down the A34 in Cheshire, and reach the end at Alderley Edge.  For those that don’t know, Alderley Edge is one point of what is known as Cheshire’s Golden Triangle.  In other words, there’s A LOT of money around.  Being out of the way a bit too, it’s very popular as a place to live for plenty of Man United (boo!), City (boo!), Liverpool (boo!) and Everton (oh dear, never mind) players.  And with footballers of course, come very flash cars.

So as I say, there I am driving (in my beat up old Ford Focus), and at the end roundabout there’s a horde of teenagers with iPhones and cameras at the ready to snap the latest supercar to drive through.  I reckon this must be in 2024, what standing on a platform spotting trains was in 1984.  I mean, what is wrong with these kids?!?  Whatever’s happened to getting some stranger to buy you a bottle of Merrydown cider from the local corner shop and sitting in the park on the roundabout and swings swigging it down with your mates.

Honestly, kids of today…

My circumstances have changed recently, and consequently for the next few weeks (and maybe months depending on restrictive covenants, non-compete clauses and the like) I find I have a lot more time than usual on my hands.  It is in this context that one of the SBC’s marketing pieces hit my inbox last week, telling me all about The Value Machine.  You can read a lot more about it

The Value Machine is run by Kieran Ward, a much respected bettor who has been behind the incredibly successful Morning Value Service and spin offs.  In short, the guy knows how to run a successful tipping service and has been doing so professionally and with a huge amount of dedication for many years now.  If getting on every bet The Value Machine spits out each day, then you’re placing a huge number of bets, probably around the 100/day mark.

Obviously, if using bookmakers, then these numbers will be restricted somewhat, or you may choose to effectively limit the number of bets you place by using a strategy of only betting the lower or mid-priced horses.  It’s up to you and your own circumstances, and that is one beauty of TVM – you can tailor it to your needs.

I was also intrigued by the promise that good returns are available via the Exchanges, perhaps using Betfair SP.  As regular readers may know, a lot of my online betting is now done by proxy via my son, which is a godsend.  But even so, I’m always open to good profitability driven by Exchange betting and with being able to get on a lot of bets right now, I thought I’d sign up for the cheap, 14 day trial.

With high turnover, comes high and rapid bank growth opportunity, and I’m kinda seeing this as the horse racing counte-equivalent to another high turnover service I’m using currently, WinnerOdds Football.

How have I got on?

Well, bearing in mind due to cricketing responsibilities on Saturday, Sunday and Monday which did in fact limit the time I could spend at my desk, I’ve struck a lot of bets, averaging over 35 per day.  I’m currently running at 4.53% ROI, but to be honest, it should have been significantly more than that.

I’ve been playing with different strategies, have made one or two mistakes in the way I follow that led to missing more than one winner, and fell initially into the trap of rushing to get everything possible on.  As soon as I started to think more strategically, to relax a bit and accept I couldn’t get on every bet but relax in the knowledge that there were more than plenty I could get on…that’s when I started to make some profit.  The more chilled approach is now working, and I should mention too that I’m using half the stake for each bet that I will when the 14 days are up and I’m on the full membership rate.

It’s exciting.  I realise too that I’m not always going to be so time rich and will in fact, at some point fairly soon, become very time poor.  So finding a lower workload approach that still results in strong returns is a priority.

Until then though, I’m going to enjoy myself with it.

Figures updated, including those for The Value Machine, coming in the next post.  See you then.

It feels like it’s been for ever!  But yes, yesterday was a profitable day.  It may have been to the tune of just under a tenner, but at this stage I don’t care.  After two weeks and the last golf winner, it feels good to not be marking down a lower low.

Contributing to the profit in a small way yesterday, was a new service introduced, but I’m going to write about that next week.  There’s a lot to say, but having only used it for two days, I’ve not yet quite ready to articulate thoughts as I’m still getting used to it.  Watch this space for more on this.

As for the services/tipsters we are familiar with, well it’s still only Weekly Golf Value that can hold its head high this month.  We had a losing week overall last week, despite getting three golfers to place, but the losses were relatively small and the ROI for the month remains at an excellent level (40%).

We’re then in the realms of damning with faint praise, as in second place in the league table for August is the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker which is “only” running at a minus ROI of 28%!  To be clear though, I’ve not yet been able to place as many Lucky 15s as I would have liked (just 15 as it stands) although the last couple of days have seen that number grow for matches being played over the weekend.

The Value Bets come next.  It’s been noticeable recently that I’ve needed to look at the price boosts at BetFred, William Hill and Ladbrokes – who all have offices near to me – myself, and then use the Bookie Bashing Bet Builder to find value.  No problem doing this at all, in fact I find it quite therapeutic.  Or at least I do until the bets go on to lose!

I mentioned the woes of Sys Analyst yesterday and so far the York Ebor meeting has not shown any respite, despite a couple of near misses.

And bringing up the rear is WinnerOdds Football.  The ROI may “only” be -9.7%, but that’s enough for a drawdown equating to -17.3% of the bank.  If I could be granted just one wish for this weekend (other than Heung-Min Son to miss a hat trick of penalties as Arsenal cruise to a 5-0 win away to the Villa, it would be a good weekend for WO Football.  Come on, mighty Zeus!  You know it makes sense!

August Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 225pts, -63.06pts, roi -28.02%, roc -4.2%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 526pts, +210.88pts, roi 40.09%, roc 14.05%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 406.2pts, -218.7pts, roi -53.84%, roc -14.58%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 216.5pts, -75.85pts, roi -35.03%, roc -5.12%.

Winner Odds Football: Staked 2,658pts, -259.81pts, roi -9.77%, roc -17.32%.

TOTAL: Staked 4,354.75pts, -641.46pts, roi -8.98%, roc 5.21%.

Let’s face it, nobody likes to be in the midst of a losing run.  And I’m no different from anybody else.

Losing money to the bookmakers or on the exchanges is not enjoyable, but it’s a fact of gambling life that there will be times when this is all you seem able to do.  But it’s not this that really unsettles me.  It did once upon a time.  Never mind unsettling, I found losing money consistently slightly scary.  It also made me question what I was doing and how I was doing it, which added to the general feeling of malaise.

Now, I’m very confident in what I’m doing and how I’m doing it.  But I’ll tell you what does still get to me a touch.

“What gets at you a touch, Row, when you’re in the middle of a losing run?”, I can hear you all shout.

I’ll tell you.  It’s reloading accounts with money.

Daft, isn’t it?  I mean depositing cash, if not quite an every day occurrence, is one that is frequent and just a part of doing the job.  It’s a nothing, menial betting task.  And yet it is one I really don’t like.  Appreciate it’s as logical of being scared of a house spider many thousands of times smaller than you are.  But then, I really don’t like spiders either.  Horrible, evil-looking, don’t know-where-they’re-going-to-run-next critters that they are.  The world would be a far better place without spiders in my view (although maybe slightly overrun by house flies), and losing runs and subsequent bookmaker account deposits needing to be made.  A. Much. Better. Place.

Just to add to the illogicality of this near phobia of pressing the <Deposit> tab, is that I deliberately keep my account balances relatively low anyway.  No point in exposing funds to companies that have been known to go bump without any warning  whatsoever.  It’s good betting practice, is it not, to keep balances low?

It’s currently Winner Odds Football and Sys Analyst providing the most cause for concern.  But when I look at the ‘Average User History’ for the past 12 months, I gain some reassurance.  Of the 52 weeks, 22 of them showed a loss.  That’s 42%, and yet at an average of a shade over 8 bets per day, the ROI shows 4.4%.  That ROI doesn’t sound so good, but when you take into account the high turnover, it’s enough to generate bank growth of over 500%! Put it this way, if I can get a 4% ROI over time then it’s happy days, as my daily bet average currently stands at 8.5 bets per day and that’s having just gone through the two quietest months of the year.

That’s not to say the downturn hasn’t come as a bit of a shock to the system.  Having started with seven profitable weeks from the first nine, I’m now on a run of five losing weeks from six and from a really nice profit high, I’m now in overall deficit after striking 890 bets.

As for Sys Analyst, well, there’s nothing to say really.  Just hope it keeps plugging away.  Allan has been through this many, many times in the past and has always bounced back to go on to post a new profit high.  I’m categorising this losing run as one of those that simply happens from time to time and all will come good again.

Results update tomorrow.

So, two weeks into August and how are things bearing up after what was a very disappointing July?

Well, to be honest I can’t really complain with the 25/1 Aaron Rai winner from Weekly Golf Value ensuring that the ROI for August so far is very healthy.  Unsurprisingly WGV is on a high for the month and with an ROI of 122%, is very much the headline act at present.  With three tournaments this week, if things go badly then that will change very quickly.  But there’s no point in thinking like that.  I’d rather be optimistic and hope for more profits.

The other service producing a good profit and arresting a July shaped slump, is WinnerOdds Football.  After four consecutive losing weeks, last week’s profit was very welcome indeed and so far this week, the upward trend has continued.  We’re now standing at a 7% ROI for the month.  It’s been very noticeable that there have been a lot more bets to go at this week as various football leagues are starting or have just started, so I’m expecting a busy time of it from now on.  That of course, makes weekend results highly significant as there will be a lot of bets playing out.

I mentioned in Tuesday’s post that I had intended to get going with the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker and be looking to get four or five Lucky 15s down every day.  The best laid plans and all that…managed to get four down on Tuesday, and then BB have experienced an IT issue which means the Bet365 prices on the Tracker are stale.  So this strategy has come to a temporary halt just as I wanted to really wind it up.  I’ll just have to be patient whilst the BB IT guys sort the issue – to be honest they historically have been very quick to iron out any technical issues.  From the three Lucky 15s that have played out, a small loss.

I’ve only placed a couple of Value Bets derivated from the various Bookie Bashing tools this month, not bothering myself to be searching for value when on holiday.  This week has got off to a very quiet start on this front too, but as the weekend approaches and with it the return of the Premier League, I’m expecting this form of betting to really ratchet up.

And finally, could really do with Sys Analyst finding some form.  Not been a great start to August, following on the heels of a poor July.  Things will turn, there’s no doubt about it.

August Figures (stakes normalised):

Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 45pts, -30.01pts, roi -66.68%, roc -2%.

Weekly Golf Value: Staked 234pts, +286.88pts, roi 122.59%, roc 19.12%.

Sys Analyst: Staked 225.9pts, -38.4pts, roi -16.99%, roc -2.56%.

Value Bets (BB): Staked 64pts, -64pts, roi -100%, roc -4.26%.

Winner Odds Football: Sstaked 1,169pts, +84.73pts, roi 7.24%, roc 5.64%.

TOTAL: Staked 1,684.9pts, +239.2pts, roi 14.19%, roc 3.18%.

Last week was great.  Mid-30s every day, clear blue skies until a short thunderstorm late afternoon that freshened the air.  Plenty of good pasta and wine.  A dip in the pool whenever you felt things were getting a little bit too hot, and absolute peace.  And time to read, chat, and sleep.  Remind me again why I live in the UK?

I hadn’t intended to put any bets on but in the end I did, not because of any great compulsion to do so, but because with modern technology, it is so quick and easy to do.  I didn’t take my laptop, but when others were snoozing and all was quiet, then why not.  I managed to get on all the Weekly Golf Value bets for the week, each of the Sys Analyst picks, and a few WinnerOdds Football bets too, all very quickly and easily via my ‘phone.  I didn’t bother with looking for value bets on the Exchanges or using the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker.  That would have been too much pfaff (?) and quite frankly I just wasn’t that inclined.  Not when there was another glass of the local vino rosso to pour.

As it transpired, I was grateful for putting on the WGV bets, with 25/1 Aaron Rai a successful pick on Sunday, and Austin Eckroat placing too at 60/1.  I’d gone to bed Sunday night thinking I was in with a good chance of two placers, with Rai a couple of shots behind a strong looking Max Greyserman entering the back nine.  I’ll let WGV explain what happened next, these words taken from their weekly update email:

“…it is fair to say that variance was on our side in this instance! Max Greyserman (who eventually finished second) looked like he had the title sewn up going into the back nine on Sunday but a quadruple-bogey shattered his chances as Rai played confidently to win by two strokes.”

For once, the Monday-morning-back-to-work-after-a-holiday feeling wasn’t so bad!

Looking forward and just today, with the top European football leagues starting up at the weekend, I’ve started to place regular Lucky 15s using the Bookie Bashing Early Price Tracker.  This ran at a 20%+ rate of ROI from last December to the end of the football season and it would be most welcome indeed if that picks up from where I left it.  It’s true I’ve put on a smattering of L15s since, but you can coount the number on your two hands.  From this week, the intention is to get up to four or five each day.

I’m expecting there to be more WinnerOdds football picks to put on now too.  The rate of bets being placed each day fell from about 12 to around 8 over the past month to six weeks.  Time to get busy!

I’ll be back later in the week with a results update.  Until then…

Oh dear.

July Total ROI: -3.07%.

July Total ROC: -3.05%.

On the face of it, that is far from a disastrous month.  Actually in reality, that is a far from disastrous month.  But how you feel about your betting at any moment in time is likely informed by how things are going at that moment.  As bettors, we do our best not to live in the moment, but psychology is a strange old beast.

Look, I have no concerns in the slightest.  Have seen a lot worse at times over the years.  But I’d be lying if I said I was as happy with betting after the last seven days, each one of them having produced a loss, as I would be if the last seven days had produced a profit.  It’s similar to football.  When Arsenal lose, I’m old enough and (just about) mature enough to get over it fairly quickly and not let it affect life (trust me, it once did!), but when they win then all is good with the world and that lovely warm glow makes me feel happy inside.  My betting is not giving me any warm glow!

Context is also a thing.  Eight days ago, I was heading towards a good month.  Three Weekly Golf Value winners in as many July weeks had set things up nicely.  And in fact, I am scratching my head wondering how that’s happened and yet the month has ended in the red.  I mean, come on!

The worst offender for me in straight cash terms has been Winner Odds Football.  Again, it was sailing along, up towards the 5% target ROI, which with the turnover it provides – even when not at “normal” levels due to time of year – means the profit is coming in nicely.  A few days later and bang! -7.9% ROI for the month, and three losing weeks in a row.  Can’t wait for the seasons to kick off across Europe and maybe…I don’t know…the Tibetan Women’s 3rd Division…to gather steam, and more bets will be placed and things will right themselves.

The Value Bets have had a stinker of a month, down -23.25% ROI.  The Euros didn’t really pay off for me in any major way, and since they ended, it’s been downhill all the way.

Next we have Sys Analyst, at -43.3% ROI and -18.46% ROC (a shade better than the Value Bets’ -19.2% ROC).  I was hoping the Goodwood meeting this week might provide turnover and a recovery, but as of yesterday, bets have been few and the recovery is yet to take place.

I’ve been very quiet with the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker, striking only a few Lucky 15s.  I don’t want to draw too much unnecessary attention to the B365 account by backing a load of teams which don’t play for four or five days.  Have decided to keep this really quiet until the leagues come back in a couple of weeks time before really looking to hit these hard again.

And so finally, the one bright spark of the month and the incredible form of Weekly Golf Value.  Three winners, eh.  Bloomin’ good, that.

So that’s July done and dusted and thank Dennis Bergkamp for that!  It’s going to be a very quiet start to August too, as I’m away on my holibobs to Italy for sun, peace, food, wine and reading.  And all that means no betting.  In fact, not taking the laptop and the ‘phone is being turned off!

I’ll be back the week after…

All figures ‘normalised’ to allow direct comparison between services.

EP Tracker: Staked: 180pts, P&L: -19.5pts, ROI: -10.83%, ROC: -1.3%, High: 0pts, Drawdown: -19.5pts, Max DD: -54.59pts

 Weekly Golf Value: Staked: 1,099pts, P&L: +694.19pts, ROI: 63.16%, ROC: 46.27%, High: 917.19pts, DD: -223pts, Max DD: -223pts

 Sys Analyst: Staked: 633.5pts, P&L: -276.99pts, ROI: -43.72%, ROC: -18.46%, High: 0pts, DD: -276.99pts, Max DD: -276.99pts

 Value Bets: Staked: 1,237.5pts, P&L: -287.82pts, ROI: -23.25%, ROC: -19.18%, High: 0pts, DD: -287.82pts, Max DD: -326.39pts

Winner Odds: Staked: 4,301pts, P&L: -340pts, ROI: -7.9%, ROC: -22.66%, High: 122.57pts, DD: -461.77pts, Max DD: -470.17pts

PS. Warm Glow.  Good name for a racehorse, that.