Losing runs can hit you like a train.

The week started off fine.  Not many bets, but a small profit on Monday and Tuesday had kept things ticking along fine.  And then bam!  By close of play Sunday night, I find myself in the midst of the deepest drawdown I’ve suffered yet this year.  And who knows when it will start to right itself again.  That’s the pain of losing runs.  You just have to keep doing what you’re doing until the gambling God’s appetite for sadism has been sated.

Tom of Bookie Bashers puts it well.  He describes a losing run as something to endure, stay in the game through, and know that the heater will be turned on again at some point.  It’s waiting for the warmth that tests us, and let’s be honest, it’s a test that many fail.  What never surprises me though, no matter how long I play this game for, is the speed with which situations change.  It was only 10 days or so ago when I was very firmly on track for a decent month.  Now, I’m licking wounds and eyeing up the neighbour’s cat as a potential sacrificial victim.

What is even more difficult to get my head around, is that Weekly Golf Value had been picking winners for fun and bringing home the proverbial bacon.  Even now, after a week with absolutely no returns from either of the two tournaments, the ROI for July stands at 63% and the bank growth at 46%.  That is seriously impressive tipping, and yet I’m on the biggest bump encountered on the road that is 2024 so far!  Thank the Big Fella WGV has been so impressive!  Had it not been, I wouldn’t be licking wounds, more demanding amputations.

Sys Analyst is having a real struggle at the moment with not one return from a number of horses given across Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  Allan has promised some results analysis soon and that will make for an interesting read.  If ever there is a chap to soothe the worries and fevered brow of someone going through a “dip”, it is he.  He’ll bounce back.  Hopefully it will be through the Glorious Goodwood Festival that starts tomorrow.  I can think of no better place to bring a halt to losing misery than the Sussex Downs with top class racing and the sun out.

This is the first “extended” losing run I’ve encountered with Winner Odds Football too.  Betting turnover is notably down, as you would expect at this time of year, but even then I find myself slightly surprised to have had five consecutive losing days, which is madness really.  Five days is nothing, but I’d kinda become accustomed to just making a steady profit day after day, that this losing nonsense has come as a jolt to the system.  For the month now my ROI is down at -5%, and overall, after 747 bets, the ROI is just 1.87%.  That will over time push up towards 5%, so you can see by how much it’s underperforming.  Again, nothing at all to worry about.

The Value Bets have proven to be very disappointing this month although the overall profit remains strong (8.3% ROI).  This month has been a bit of a disaster though, with some heavily staked odds on bets going down.  Currently at -24% ROI for July!!

Have just started putting a handful of Lucky 15s on again from the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker, but no real success as yet.  A very small loss…and frankly right now, I’ll grab that with both hands and cling on for dear life!

I’ll have a July review out for you later this week (probably Thursday).

Friday was a long day.  It was an early start to catch the train that would get me to the Big Smoke, and from London Euston to Chelsea FC, in time for the first speakers at Smart-Bash 2024.  And before I go any further, can I just make a request to Virgin Trains that they up the ante when it comes to their bacon rolls!?  Richard Branson, if you’re reading this (and why wouldn’t you be?), you need to take a long hard look at yourself if you think that is a bacon roll.  It isn’t!

On what was a very hot day, it was a bit of a relief to arrive at Chelsea FC (not a line I’d ever thought I’d type) and into the air conditioned conference suites.  It was even more of a relief to just have time to grab a coffee before going straight in to listen to the first panel.

The whole thing got off to a perfect start in my eyes.  Nothing too complex; there was time for the caffeine shot to work its way into the system and kickstart the old grey matter.  But what we listened to was thoroughly entertaining betting and gambling talk and stories that made us chuckle from both sides of the punting fence.  What was clearly apparent was that both bookmaker and punter alike, a love of racing and the betting game was clear and obvious and set the tone for what was to come.

It was a shame to see a number of delegates take an unscheduled break for refreshments as the second panel took the mic.  This was a discussion around governance, legalities, affordability checks, etc.  There could be a fairly robust argument that these topics are the most important facing serious bettors today, and yet it was a little difficult to escape the notion that maybe some are sticking their heads in the sand and hoping the problems might just go away.  A call to collective arms to seek representation for punters within the corridors of power was a powerful message to take away.  Will this happen?  I guess only time will tell.

Further panels covering gaining an edge over the golf markets, the psychology behind the players and the role of analytics in golf betting was genuinely fascinating, as were the afternoon sessions dedicated to subjects such as effective staking from WinnerOdds, emerging technology and the use of crypto (very thought provoking), betting syndicates, and how to profit from using the Exchanges.

Thanks to a number of people who said “Hello”, and especially to Derek who remembered something I’d written within the Bet Diary a couple of years ago about cricket tipsters.  Derek,  if you’re reading, thank you for the insight…and even just for remembering.  Oh, and Up the Hatters! 🙂

To sum up then, there was a huge amount of excellent stuff to learn through the day.  Like most things I find with betting, a lot of information is to be mulled over, pondered upon, and thought through.  You can take bits of knowledge learnt, and see how they might benefit you, or not, as the case may be.  But I’d much rather have the knowledge and separate what is worth trying from what is not, depending on personal circumstances, than not having the knowledge at all.  And for this, the Smart-Bash was exceptional.

The only way I can think of a way in which it might be improved for next year, is to maybe try hosting at the Emirates, North London.  But then, I would say that, wouldn’t I? 😉

Really looking forward to the Smart-Bash down in London tomorrow.  Will be the only time I go to Chelsea FC without Arsenal playing, of that there is no doubt, but for once I shall overlook the fact that I regard myself as being on enemy territory and just enjoy the occasion.  If you’re reading this and going, come and say “Hello!”.  I’ll be the one in the full Arsenal kit!

Last week was 99% losing, and 1% winning, with the winning bit coming right at the end.  I was looking down the barrel of a bad week until Harry Hall won a play off in the PGA Tour tournament to land odds of 50/1 and give the remarkable Weekly Golf Value their third winner in as many weeks.

There are so many similarities with last year for WGV.  The first half of the year proving to be something of a struggle before really hitting some form and making profit like there’s no tomorrow.  I’ve made the equivalent of 39% bank growth this month alone, and my ROI is looking much more healthy than it did this time last month.  Just shows how quickly things can turn around.

Tom Brownlee has been talking in his videos (well worth a watch as he visually records 25 days of betting, found on the Bookie Bashing website) of waiting for the heater to return when enduring a cold run.  Stay in the game, and the good times will return.  Hear, hear to that!

Weekly Golf Value Figures: Staked 5,805 pts, +995.32pts, roi 17.14%, roc 66.35%.

If you’re a WGV follower and thinking hang on, those figures for 2024 to date are much better than mine, don’t forget I used the Tracker for the first few months of the year.  That has changed last month and this, as my son is putting down the WGV bets only using his accounts.

For July only, WGV figures look like this:

Staked 594pts, +581.19pts, roi 97.84%, roc 38.74%.

It’s The Open this week.  Let’s see how we get on.

Not so positive have been the various Value Bets I’ve been placing, as you can see here:

Staked 778.5pts, -284.17pts, roi -36.5%, roc -18.94%.

Let’s make sure we keep this in context.  For the year to date I’m up 474.89 points at an ROI of 9%.  This is simply illustrative of how different methods and strategies can run either hot or cold.  I guess that’s the advantage of having a “portfolio” as such.  Avoiding putting all eggs in one basket can help ease the volatility.

With the Euros now over, my attention for these bets is turning more towards the World Matchplay Darts this week, and I’ll report back on how that goes.

Clearly though, no bets on Friday.  Too much time travelling, and learning down at the Smart-Bash.  Can’t wait.

Let’s continue on our update by taking a (brief) look at the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker and the performance of what I call Value Bets sourced from the various Bookie Bashing tools and Bet Tracker.

There really is nothing to report on the Racing Tracker as finding Lucky 15s from this has essentially ground to a halt.  It’s a temporary halt, but I’m not at all sure when using this Tracker will resume.

The figures are, therefore, exactly the same as the last update:

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 3,995pts, -489.11pts, roi -12.24%, roc -32.6%

The fact is that I don’t want to put undue strain on online accounts and would much rather concentrate on using cash in shops, and here lies the problem.  I’m not currently able to get out and about at lunchtimes with any level of consistency to get the bets down.  This will change, but for now I/we have decided to reallocate the funds elsewhere within the services/strategies followed.

It feels a little strange to be doing this.  After all, the Racing Lucky 15s were by far my most lucrative source of betting income in 2023, but when Sky Bet restricted my lad’s account (it is still of use, just not as useful as it had been until then) this is the decision we took.

The Tracker isn’t going anywhere.  Just going to have to concentrate on hitting shops again when able.

As for the Value Bets, this is where we stand:

Staked 5,012pts, +635.51pts, roi 12.67%, roc 42.36%

As you would expect, the Euros have been dominating this sector, and we’ve been pretty busy on the Exchanges, taking advantage of value being found in the Enhanced Specials offered up by BetDaq and Matchbook.  This really is a great bank builder – liquidity isn’t always great, although better for the Euros, but even to small stakes you can keep a regular churn of profit coming in.

In addition to those we’ve been searching for value in the Anytime Goalscorer markets and had recently started looking at players being carded.  The latter has brought great early success with 3 of the first five bets being landed.

What we have found though is that there have been a couple of instances of a particular match proving to be the source of good profit, or a fairly significant loss.  Siding with the Germans and players to score plus Enhanced Specials on the first match of the tournament – Germany vs Scotland – got things off to a great start.  But there have been one or two matches since, particularly once the group games had been completed, where scoring was low and bets on players to score or shots on target accumulated a significant loss on the match.  I’ll tally everything up across the tournament and see how we’ve fared after the final at the end of this week.

Finally for today, a mention for the second winner in consecutive weeks for Weekly Golf Value, with 20/1 shot Davis Thompson landing the spoils in the US last night.  Great to see WGV find some consistent form and my ROI from finding bets for myself using the Golf Tracker, and now simply following WGV advice has broken the 10% ROI marker for the first time this year.

Deep apologies for the enforced break.  Bloody Covid!

Yep, it’s not gone away, and to be honest, it hit me for a bigger six than any Tino Best would have hit if not trying to mind the windows!  Fortunately, as I’m now effectively in a joint venture partnership with my lad, betting didn’t come to a standstill as it might have done previously.  And in fact, looking at the bright side of things, it’s been an interesting exercise to get someone else’s thoughts and viewpoint gained from a practical perspective.

So I need to bring these pages up to date, and I thought that the best way to do this might be a series of posts, each of which will concentrate on a couple of the services/strategies used at a time, and including questions that have been raised and thoughts discussed between Joe and myself.

So we’ll start with the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker and the Lucky 15 strategy adopted to utilise it.

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 8,100pts, +1,657.5pts, roi 20.46%, roc 110.5%

A very small drop in the P&L from the last update, and only a handful of Lucky 15s placed.  In fact, no Lucky 15 bet has been struck for over a week now and there are a couple of reasons for this.

Firstly, with a lot of the domestic leagues currently on their summer break, there have been far fewer teams appear on the Tracker than is the case during the main football season.  However, that is not to say the Tracker has been blank.  It hasn’t, and it is still possible to get some bets down if you wanted to.  Which leads us on to the second point.

Although it is possible to get maybe one or two Lucky 15s on each day, to do so, it is often necessary to include matches that are being played days ahead.  In some correspondence I had with an SBC member a few weeks back, it was pointed out to me that the bookmakers aren’t particularly going to take kindly to this.  In other words, placing high liability Lucky 15s that include teams upon whom a very early price is being taken might catch the attention of the Traders, and nobody wants to do that when it can be avoided.

The way I use the EP Tracker during the main football season is to first look to see what bets I can make using teams playing within the next 24 hours, and then the next 48.  Generally speaking, I can get four or five Lucky 15s down each day without having to look at teams playing within 72 hours.  Right now, it’s almost impossible.

So after discussion, we’ve decided to knock the EP Tracker on the head until the new football season starts in August.  The account we use primarily for these bets is precious, not least when it comes to following a service such as Winner Odds, which is something I’ll talk about in a later post.

Weekly Golf Value

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 5,211pts, +414.13pts, roi 7.94%, roc 27.6%

Now let’s take a look at WGV.

Joe and I decided to slim down how we bet on the golf.  As you may know if you are a regular reader, at the start of the year when I was limited to betting in cash and on the Exchanges only, I used the Tracker and bet win-only using the likes of Smarkets and Matchbook.  When Joe opened new accounts we used the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to find our own bets and mixed them with WGV selections.  For the past month or so, and essentially due to timing, we decided to simply back the WGV bets that come out on a Wednesday.  Moving forward we will undoubtedly go back to using the Tracker to find our own players to back in each tournament, but right now it simply suits us to keep things as simple as possible.

This has coincided with something of a return to form for WGV which to official figures had until recently been in deficit for the year.  However, three weeks of good each way place returns and then this Sunday a winner at 45/1 has pushed things back in the right direction and I believe as a result the official figures have just broken through into positive territory.

Our own personal ROI from what is now a mix of our own bets sourced from the Tracker and WGV picks is creeping up towards the 10% ROI mark, which is good to see.

It was also good to see us get some luck on Sunday too, when for all the world Cam Davis, our winner, looked unlikely to end up as another to go close and place rather than win (Seconditis has been a curse this year!) but with a bogey on the last from a rival, Davis was left on his own at the top of the leaderboard.  Hallelujah!

Sadly this was the week when no other golfer in either of the PGA and DPWT tournaments placed, so the overall profit wasn’t that much greater than the previous week when we had four or five place but no win.  But who’s complaining?  Not us, that’s for sure.

I remember last year WGV struggled a little through the first half and then bagged a number of winners in the second half of 2023 to end up with another great year overall (23.8% ROI to official numbers) and so of course, we’re hoping for similar this year.  Whether that happens or things go the other way, it matter not in the long term.  The Golf Tracker/WGV is a winner.  Patience and good bank management will always be rewarded.

In the next post we’ll look at what’s happened with the Lucky 15s sourced from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker, and from our Value Bets.

Until then…