Mossman Rugby

Rugby, like many other sports, has benefitted from gambling markets becoming globally interconnected.

The likes of Pinnacle price the sport up with very deep liquidity and low margins and in turn, the softer books have started to price the sport up more competitively.

This presents opportunities to follow expert bettors in and Mossman Rugby is a service that does exactly that – it is run by a professional bettor who offers the chance to get his Rugby Union bets delivered straight into your Telegram inbox.

About

Nathan Mossman is that professional Rugby Union bettor and he uses models and his knowledge of the sport to bet profitably on leagues in both Australia, New Zealand and Europe.

Since 2022, he has proofed his personal betting record to the Smart Betting Club alongside working with some syndicates, who get on his bets in various jurisdictions in Europe, Australasia and North America.

The breakdown of bets is as follows, with the countries that the action take place in included for those less familiar with the sport*:

  • National Provisional Championship (New Zealand): 409 bets
  • Super Rugby (Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands): 279 bets
  • Pro D2 (France): 182 bets
  • United Rugby Championship (URC; Ireland, Italy, Scotland, South Africa, and Wales): 170 bets
  • Premiership (England): 117 bets
  • Top 14 (France): 103 bets
  • Championship (England): 66 bets

*Up to October 2024

As we can see, Australasia provides the majority of the action but the European leagues and club competitions also provide a high volume of bets.

The Record

During our proofing period (which went up to October 2024), we used Nathan’s personal betting record to note down stakes and prices, with the following headline results:

As you can no doubt tell, Nathan uses a variable staking system that is a derivation of Kelly, meaning that the stakes are dependent on the prices and edges that Nathan thinks he has against the market. Some detail around the type of outlets that were used during this period are detailed in ‘Getting On’ below.

Here is what this record looks like when plotted on a graph:

 

From October 2024 we started recording Nathan’s bets using a fair pricing policy (taking the second available best price) and we have combined that sample with the previous records to create a record at level stakes.

This obviously looks a lot different from the variable staking (which is based on a 1,000 point bank), but the ROI actually increases using this staking strategy vs. Nathan’s variable method:

Whichever way you stake these bets, the profit has been consistent and both graphs look exactly as we would want them to look for steady bank growth:


Getting On

This service is most suitable for bettors at levels 3, 4 or 5 on their betting journey and with that in mind, getting on is a key consideration.

Using Nathan’s personal betting record, we can start to get an idea of the operators that he has used to get bets down. Here is a breakdown:

Firms such as Bet365, Bet Victor, 1XBet and Unibet have a global presence (or have sites that mirror their prices) whilst Pinnacle, the outlet used more than any other, can be accessed in various jurisdictions (or by using white labels or brokers).

As Nathan is based in Australia, he does not have the same access to the wider range of operators elsewhere to gauge prices against multiple exchanges and other bookmakers, something that we will be doing moving forward.

The fair odds policy for this service will record bets against the second best price available with the following outlets: Bet365, Pinnacle, Bet Victor, William Hill, Paddy Power and Unibet. This means that you can be confident that no standout prices are used – in reality, bettering the record should be relatively easy by accessing a wider range of outs to get money down.

Service Nuts & Bolts

Here is how the service works:

Bet Notifications: All bets will be advised via Telegram with a message including details of the match, the selection and the prices available.

Bet Timing: Bets will be advised when markets are mature, normally the day before a match or on the day of play.

Bet Type: Bets are all single bets.

Number of Bets: Nathan Mossman Rugby has increased its bet volume since 2022, with 100+ bets a month now a regular occurrence. Most of these selections will centre on the weekend, when rugby fixtures are concentrated.

Staking: From a 1,000 point bank, the average stake has been 27.83 points to date. As Nathan deploys a derivation of Kelly, the stake for any given bet will depend on the size of the perceived edge.

Betting Banks: We advocate a 1000 point bankroll when following this service to advised stakes.