Umut Football: Pinnacle Asian Handicap Bets
(PICTURE OR SUMMARY)
Profitable Edges At The Sharpest Lines: Pinnacle Asian Handicap Lines
Umut Football has been advising football bets with Pinnacle since 2022 and has built up an enviable record of near double-digit returns.
By focusing on less liquid leagues that receive less attention from bigger bettors, Umut has been able to consistently find matches which offer profitable angles in. As his betting record demonstrates, Asian Handicaps are his ‘MO’ and the returns to date suggest he is very good at finding the right spots to get involved!
What is Umut’s Process?
Umut models match outcomes, using his own prices to determine fair Asian Handicap lines before advising bets. Here is what he has to say about his process:
‘My predictions are completely statistical and do not include human emotions. That’s why I can create more transparent bets that are purely based on numbers. I actually have a very simple strategy. When making my predictions, I try to find teams with higher odds than I expect, namely the underrated ones. I try to be on the side with 66% using the Asian handicap (draw and win). I make my decision by looking at factors such as the teams’ past form, the importance of the match, the missing (injury/suspended) list and the past odds movements. This is what I do regularly every morning. After many years of development, I have seen that this strategy gives better results in some leagues and I only consider those leagues. There may be losses in the short term, but I don’t care about them!’
Umut’s process is exhaustive but after looking at all of these variables he is left with a shortlist to bet and tip. Volume isn’t very high (more on this shortly), but results suggest that he is consistently finding value.
The Record
Umut has a full record detailed on the Blogabet site and we used a proofing period of several months to make sure that our records aligned with that (they did!); you can view Umut’s line-by-line record here. This is what the long-term record looks like in summary form:
As Umut tips using Asian Handicaps, odds are generally offered at around the even money mark, with a mean of 1.963 over the 461 bet sample. This makes his 9.21% ROI quite remarkable as there is no reliance on ‘big-priced winners’ with his flat staking plan (2.6 are the longest odds that Umut has advised a bet at, a winning selection on Raith Rovers +1 in May 2023).
As you can see from this summary the strike rates and average odds make this a low volatility service.
This makes it a perfect candidate for solid bank growth and progressive reinvestment. Here is what ROC figures would look like using Umut’s advised 50 point bank and a more aggressive 25 point bank:
Progressive investment could be achieved by reinvesting profits at certain milestones or by investing a set amount (e.g. 2% or 4%) on each and every bet using a rolling-bank figure. Here is what Umut advises based on his own betting:
‘I recommend a 50 point bankroll. I trust every prediction equally, that’s why I use flat stake. This means 2% of the bankroll, or 1 point, for each prediction. You can withdraw the profit at the end of 1 year. You can continue to make predictions with a 50 point bankroll. When the total amount you withdraw reaches the amount in your bankroll, which is 50 points, you can increase your bankroll and continue with, for example, 60 points. (The amount you invest in each match will be 1.2 points)’
Getting On
All of our proofing and Umut’s results recording has been based on Pinnacle prices to date, so we do not have more detailed analysis of prices with exchanges and/or soft bookmakers. Pinnacle’s odds are generally offered with low margins but are ‘beatable’ in certain spots. Concessions such as ‘2up’ also add value to bets, so taking slightly inferior prices with these concessions available should not leave a personal betting record that is too disparate from Umut’s records. A historic ROI of 9.21% also suggests that there may be a little ‘wiggle-room’ with value prices.
Service Nuts and Bolts
About: Umut Football advises Asian Handicap football bets, with prices quoted solely with Pinnacle.
Method of Bet Supply: Tips are sent out via email to subscribers with the match, selection and price clearly noted.
Bet Timing: What time and day are bets sent? Tips are sent out between 2pm and 5pm (GMT) on the day of game. Weekend selections may be advised earlier if matches are scheduled to kick off before this time.
Bet Type: All bets are in Asian Handicap markets, with a flat 1-unit staking plan deployed.
Bookmakers: Tips are advised (and recorded) with Pinnacle but given patterns seen in other markets, prices with exchanges and bookmakers will be similar (or in some cases better) in certain leagues and matches.
Number of Bets: Around 12-15 bets can be expected in an average month, with the amount of action and active leagues determining the number of value opportunities.
Staking: Each bet is advised with a flat one unit stake from a 50-point bank.
Betting Bank Advice: Umut advises a 50-point bank to follow his bets and we have calculated ROC figures using this (and a more aggressive 25 point bank) above. To use this advise more fluidly, 2% of any running bank could be used for progressive reinvestment. The average odds (around even money) make the risk of considerable drawdowns low, hence our analysis using a 25 point bank above.