Scottish Confidential – Big Edges In The Scottish Football Leagues From An Experienced Professional Bettor

 8.86% ROI; Attainable Prices; 1,385 Bets & 182.5 Points Of Profit Since 2015.

Beating English Premier League 1×2 markets is a remarkably tricky proposition, with sub-5% edges seen as excellent due to the efficiency of the prices and the deep liquidity available.

This is because the sharpest minds pay a lot of attention to higher profile games. Data is available for every conceivable metric; Asian pools provide global outlets for ‘The Wisdom Of The Crowd’ to shape prices and bookmakers of all stripes have a rock-solid barometer that allows them to confidently lay, all feeding into the perfect conditions for landing on ‘true prices’.

Beating these lines is tricky but markets that get less attention from traders, syndicates and other sharp money can often provide unique opportunities.

That is where a service like ‘Scottish Confidential‘ comes in. North of the border, things are a bit different as those big Asian betting pools aren’t present to the same degree, making the opportunity to find chunky edges less daunting.

Run By A Scottish Football Expert

Run by a professional bettor who has worked extensively within the industry for both bookmakers and syndicates, Scottish Confidential is a service that focuses on the top 4 Scottish leagues and the Scottish cup competitions.

Its a service that has been in operation since 2015, since when over the course of nearly 1,400 bets it has made 182.5 points of profit at 8.86% ROI.

Due to the aforementioned lack of attention from some of the ‘big players’, modelling these games is a big part of what this expert does, using player ratings, form and other variables to create tissue prices for each round of fixtures each week.

This is accompanied by more ‘time-heavy’ research like studying the local media for given teams, picking up ‘whispers’ about what is going on inside some of these clubs and even visiting fan forums to pick up those nuggets of information that can inform which bets may be value and which ones won’t.

Keeping abreast of 4 leagues and 42 teams may seem like an onerous task but Scottish Confidential manages it well, with the distribution of bets across these competitions being relatively even since the service started in 2015:

• The Scottish Premiership has seen 295 advised bets
• The Scottish Championship has seen 307 advised bets
• The Scottish League One has seen 335 advised bets
• The Scottish League Two has seen 339 advised bets
• Scottish Cup games have seen 58 advised bets
• Multiple bets (such as doubles and trebles) have been advised 52 times

Practicality is at the heart of all of the tips that are shared. Handicap betting or goal lines are harder to get money down in less liquid markets so moneyline/1×2 bets make up the vast majority of the portfolio, with the odd ‘Draw No Bet’ advice put forward where a favourite is well worth opposing.

In short, Scottish Confidential acts like a syndicate or odds compiler does for any ‘top league’ where there is lots of action and liquidity. His edge comes from the fact that not many others are doing the same thing!

The Results

These bets have provided some superb profits since the service began in 2015. Despite small losing years in 2019 and 2021, the service has provided solid returns, with ROI averaging out at 8.86% after 1,386 bets:

Some other headline data to take from the record includes:

• The average stake for bets is just under 1.5 points (1.486 to be exact)
• The average price for tipped selections (singles and multiples) is 2.78 (a little over 7/4 in ‘old money’)
• The strike rate stands at 42.99%
• 13 bets ‘pushed’ where a draw no bet or other similar derivative was advised

One other notable takeaway from looking at the 1,386 bet record is how much the staking plan has impacted upon performance. Level staking would have produced fine profits since the service’s inception, producing a 7.02% ROI, but the variable advised staking really is worth following as it has added 1.84 percentage points to that figure which equates to a 36% uplift in profit.

A full bet-by-bet record for Scottish Confidential can be found here.

Return On Capital

We have carried out some analysis on Scottish Confidential’s record and feel comfortable putting two suggested betting banks forward for you to choose from when following.

25 points (aggressive) and 50 points (conservative) banks are based on the average odds and historical drawdown data and below, you can see the returns that these suggested banks would have delivered based on the profit garnered since 2015.

To the more aggressive 25 point bank, the bank growth stands at 730%, whereas to the conservative 50 point bank this is 365% bank growth. 

Progressive staking (e.g. increasing a bank by 2.5% after consecutive winning months) would be a suitable strategy with a service like Scottish Confidential as the service has delivered consistent profits with small drawdowns, making it unlikely that this small adjustment would ever threaten your overall bank.

Service Nuts & Bolts

Bet timing: Bets are sent out to members on Thursdays before weekend matches. Bet release times for other rounds of fixtures varies, but will normally be 1-2 days before kick off.

Bet type: Bets are most commonly single 1×2 bets. Draw no bet and multiple bets are also utilised regularly.

Bookmakers: Access to a range of soft bookmakers, sharp bookmakers and exchanges would be ideal to get the best prices. Odds are cited to the best price on Oddschecker. Access to other outlets not listed there could result in obtaining better odds.

Number of bets: 15-20 bets is typical in any given month during the football season.

Betting bank: We advocate a 25 or 50 bank for this service with the former being more aggressive and the latter being more conservative.

Subscribe Now – Exclusive SBC Deals

You can subscribe now to Scottish Confidential with the following options:

Monthly Subscription £24.95 (Save £5 a Month As An SBC Member)

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You can now join Scottish Confidential and save the usual cost each month or year as a member of the Smart Betting Club as part of an exclusive discount offer!

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