PGA Profit Golf Tips – Small Stakes, Big Profits

PGA Profit features the unique golf betting advice from Matt, a former accountant turned sports therapist and now professional gambler, who has successfully showcased how to make a profit betting on golf since February 2018.

Since 2018, Matt has made a 1,365 point profit @ 22.16% ROI from 1,995 bets on PGA golf tournaments.

This profit has been spread out evenly over the years as follows:

With all selections derived from his proprietary golf betting algorithms and databases alongside a finely tuned understanding of golfers and the betting markets, PGA Profit gives you the best possible chance to turn a profit golf betting.

As a subscriber to the PGA Profit service, you will receive a weekly email outlining the best value selections to be backed each way. Many of which can be placed with betting exchanges as well as bookmakers so making it a service for ALL punters.

To view a full bet-by-bet record that is regularly updated, please click here.

Secure Your Membership To This Fantastic Golf Tipping Service

You can subscribe now to PGA Profit with the following options:

SBC Member Rates

To take advantage of these discounted prices, an active membership to the Smart Betting Club is required.

• 1 month subscription @ £45 + VAT
• 6 month subscription @ £205 + VAT
• 12 month subscription @ £349 + VAT (Best Value long-term)

Normal Rates

• 1 month subscription @ £50 + VAT
• 6 month subscription @ £219 + VAT
• 12 month subscription @ £379 + VAT

Click here to view the subscription options and to join the service.

Listen To The SBC Podcast Interview With Matt – The Brains Behind PGA Profit

Learn more about Matt and his PGA Profit service in this new podcast interview with the Smart Betting Club as published in June 2021.

Discover more on why Matt bets on golf, how his algorithm works in terms of hunting down value bets each week and the best way to get your bets down – be it with bookmakers or exchanges.

If you enjoy this and are keen to hear more – simply search ‘Smart Betting Club’ wherever you get your podcasts!

Matt’s Betting Journey From Beginner to Golf Expert

Like most of us, Matt’s first forays into the betting world were a struggle and it is only after years of dedicated hard work and analysis has he been able to arrive at a place where he is now making it really pay through betting on golf.

Matt began his working life as an accountant – a career based on his clear aptitude for numbers and statistics, yet finding the accountancy world monotonous and unchallenging, he retrained as a sports therapist – a job which due to its self employed nature allowed him to also indulge his love of sports betting…Which is where this story really begins!

Starting in his early betting years with a focus on football betting, Matt constructed an algorithm to calculate the percentage chance of a team winning based upon their past results, which after much hard work and effort helped him to win small amounts of money betting.

As many of us know, the issue with football betting is how difficult it can be to make significant sums without access to a very large bankroll as the ROI figures were very low – 2 to 3% ROI at best. The very best football syndicates stake millions, which enables them to make a decent profit, yet these kind of sums are out of the reach of most punters, as it was for Matt.

Powerful Golf Betting Algorithms

Understanding the issues betting on football, Matt subsequently turned his attention to Golf. This was a sport he had followed from a young age and to help identify value betting opportunities without the need for a huge bankroll, he began developing his own golf betting algorithm. Here, in his own words is how he got started:

‘I began delving deeper into various statistics, such as driving distance, driving accuracy, putting average, G.I.R (greens in regulation percentage), strokes gained, ball striking, etc. It was difficult at first to find these, but as golf and the internet grew, it became a lot easier. It has got to the point now, where I have over 6 years of data from each venue on the PGA Tour, which is an absolute goldmine of information. This, alongside another algorithm that calculates the strengths a player needs to succeed on any given course, when ran against every active player on the PGA Tour in those key areas, gives me a shortlist of names going into an event.’

Added to the above, Matt also leaves no stone unturned when it comes to his knowledge of golfers and their strengths and weaknesses. For example – he knows who’s just had a baby, when it’s their birthday or if they’ve changed caddies or equipment. All of which (and much more besides) can affect them going into the start of a tournament each Thursday and therefore impacts just who you should bet or or not!

This approach often finds Matt highlighting golfers no-one else is, including those who haven’t enjoyed success before…

‘As my selections are more based upon numbers than opinion, I am not afraid to back guys who have never won on tour before. In fact, I think in the last 6 years, I have selected 8 or 9 guys that have claimed their maiden tour victory, when most ‘pundits’ were saying it was too soon for them to get inside the winners circle.’

Given all of the above it is therefore no surprise to learn the standard of profits that Matt has been making betting on golf as the next section reveals.

The Performance Record & Profits To Date

PGA Profit first began advising bets back in February 2018 so now has the benefit of over 6 years’ worth of tips and results.

Advising an average of 4-6 tips in most tournaments on mostly outright selections alongside occasional extra in-play bets, Matt has made a fine profit since he began supplying tips.

As a total, over the course of 1,995 bets advised, a 1,365 point profit has been made at 22.16% Return on Investment.

To view a full bet-by-bet record that is regularly updated, please click here.

Profitable To Either Bookmakers Or With Betfair Exchange Prices

The excellent news about PGA Profit is that it works whether you follow the service via the advised bookmaker prices and terms OR on the Betfair exchange.

You can read the full lowdown on the edge available at Betfair via this free PDF report.

Whilst all of PGA Profit’s bets are advised and settled at official bookmaker prices, data we have collected based on taking the same bets in the Win and Top 5 Betfair markets suggests a clear edge exists there too.

We gathered the odds for each market dating back to November 2020 at both bookmakers and Betfair as part of this analysis. Here is what we found:

To explain this table – between November 2020 and August 2022 we collated 420 each way bets and 13 win only bets advised by PGA Profit. Over the course of these 433 bets, PGA Profit made a 646 point profit with bookmakers, yet also a 551.47 point profit at Betfair Exchange odds.

The difference in ROI between the two is 4.98% with a 33.73% Bookmaker ROI and a 28.75% Betfair Exchange ROI

Suggesting that there is only a 4.98% ROI drop if taking Betfair odds.

You can read the full breakdown in this free-to-read PDF but the headline news is that betting with Betfair is only slightly less profitable with a 4.98% ROI drop.

An Update With Ongoing Exchange Tracking

Due to many SBC Members relying on exchanges to get their golf bets down, we had several requests to track PGA Profit’s performance away from the bookmakers (and their juicy place terms!).

To do this, we now have a ‘PGA Profit Exchange’ tracking sheet that can be viewed here.

The dynamics of the differences between bookmakers and exchanges follows a pattern that was referenced above:

• Win prices are typically much better on the exchanges
• The value in the place markets is generally worse
• Place markets are generally restricted to ‘Top 5 Finish’, ‘Top 10 Finish’ and ‘Top 20 Finish’, with the majors being the only exceptions (when extra options e.g. ‘Top 8’ are available)

With this in mind, creating ‘like for like’ bets is impossible, so Matt from PGA Profit creates alternative options, mixing up staking and combinations of ‘Top X’ finishes. Every part of each bet on a selection is noted in detail in the record, so you can see for yourself what this looks like. The overall record since 2020 looks like this:

How These Tips Fared When Supplied Free To SBC Members

As part of a tie-up with SBC to help expose the quality of Matt’s advice, he supplied all advice free of charge to SBC members between the 22nd July 2019 and the 23rd of February 2020, during which time the service thrived.

All told, over the course of 205 bets advised during this free trial period, a profit of 665 points @ 104.37% ROI was made! Amazing figures indeed and proof positive as to the difference that golf betting can bring to bear!

For those of you wishing to explore these results further, you can access a Google Sheets spreadsheet via this link. This results spreadsheet is updated on a regular basis with the latest figures.

Matt’s Staking Plan & Bankroll Management

To help maximise his profitability, Matt has a unique approach to staking and bankroll management – something that is also vital to follow when golf betting given the ups and downs that can be experienced at times.

The staking plan he uses is relatively simple – never putting more than 1% of his current bankroll on a selection, although sometimes if it’s a real ‘long-shot’ he may only risk 0.2% of his bank.

To explain how this all works – let’s say you have a bankroll of £1000. This means that if he advises a selection of “Justin Rose to win The Masters @ 25/1 – 1% (0.5% each-way)” – All you need to do is work out what 1% of your bank equates to, which in this instance is £10 – therefore you would place a £5 each way (total of £10) on Justin Rose.

If you have an outstanding 12 months, and by the end of the year your bankroll is £3000, you may wish to recalculate your 1%, so in this case 1% would now equate to £30.

Whatever size bankroll you begin with you simply use the calculations above to work out how much to stake on each selection.

For the basis of our results, we equate 0.2% of a bank to be worth 1 point.

Award Winning Service!

To further highlight just how popular this service is with his subscribers, PGA Profit took first prize in the ‘Best Sports Tipster’ category in the 2021 Smart Betting Club Awards; taking the Gold Award with over 20% of the vote.

Then in the 2022 SBC Awards, they also won the Bronze Award in the Best Sports & Best Golf Tipster categories.

Voted for by Smart Betting Club members, these awards recognise those tipsters who have made a difference to punters’ lives through the quality of betting advice they supply.

Showcasing just how popular PGA Profit is with those shrewd enough to hold a membership!

Why You Should Consider Golf Betting

Although often overlooked in preference to other sports such as football or horse racing, golf is actually one of the best sports to bet upon to develop a long-term profitable strategy to beat the bookmakers with.

This is true for several reasons such as…

High ROI Figures

Golf betting often allows you to obtain a very high Return on Investment figure, especially in comparison to sports like football which are often very competitive and whereby you need to stake a LOT of money to make a good return. It is not rare to see a golf tipster hit a 20 to 30% ROI, in comparison to perhaps a 5% ROI on football.

Good Value On Exchanges

The reality is that you can often obtain good value from placing golf bets on the betting exchanges instead of bookmakers, especially in the markets that Matt utilises. For example, in a recent tournament, a bet was advised on Ryan Moore at 66/1 with bookmakers, which was widely available at 80/1 on Betfair. Time and time again, we see much excellent value on the exchanges for PGA Profit’s selections

Ideal For ‘Restricted’ Bettors

Betting exchanges also do not restrict you if winning too much money from your bets – making golf betting ideal for restricted punters. The fact golf betting is a 4 day event and there is lots of liquidity on the exchanges also ensures that bookmakers don’t get too twitchy about restricting your account if you back a big golf winner with them.

A ‘Scalable’ Sport To Bet On

As a knock-on effect of the above ability to bet on the exchanges, golf also appeals because you can easily increase your stakes and generate a strong annual profit without fear of being closed down. Giving it what we term ‘scalability’ in that you can build up long-term profits without fear of having the plug pulled on you in future.

Ability to bet in-play

Due to the fact almost all golf tournaments last 4 days, it also opens up plenty of opportunity for in-play bets between time. Matt has begun to advise a small number of in-play bets to be taken (advised once the days play is complete) that can be easily matched on the Betfair exchange or at times with bookmakers.

What You Need To Know When Golf Betting

Although there is no doubting the quality of Matt’s tipping prowess, there are some very important points to be aware of when golf betting as it needs to be treated very differently to other sports.

The nature of golf betting ensures that you can go very long periods without hitting a winner, however, when you do hit a winner at average odds of over 50/1 it more than makes up for any losing streak.

It is not rare therefore to go months without a big winner and indeed post losses for several weeks on the bounce. You need to be prepared for this likelihood before committing to the service.

It is only for those of you brave enough to ride the ups and downs and wait for the big winners to come in!

Take 2019 for example – it was a very successful year all told making a profit of 285 points @ 27.09% ROI from 407 bets.

Yet as you break down the year, you will see that only 6 out of the 11 active months (there were no bets in December) made a profit.

There were 137 outright selections put forward in 2019 and of these only 3 won (2.18%) with another 11 (8.02%) each-way winners. All combined, of the outright bets, only 10.20% of them were profitable – a little over 1 in 10 made a profit, although usually a very good one.

A Low-Staking, Value For Money Approach

Fully conscious of the patience needed at times, the subscription costs for PGA Profit have been deliberately kept low to ensure you can stake appropriately and build a strong profit without breaking the bank.

This means even during bad losing runs, you don’t have to worry about staking lots each week and the panic this can cause.

Since the service began, approximately 320 points profit has been generated over an average 12 month period.

Staking just £5 a point over the course of an average year making 320 points profit would ensure you ended up £1,600 in profit. Deducting the £299 annual fee, that would still leave a £1300 clear profit after subscription costs.

Even during a ‘bad year’ making just 200 points profit – that would still leave you clear £700 in profit and all at just £5 stakes.

Service Nuts & Bolts

Here is more on how it all works as a member of the PGA Profit service

Bet Notifications Via Email: As a member of the service you will get all bet notifications sent to you via email.

Type of Bets: Matt’s main bets these days are outright selections on golfers to be backed each way. These are occasionally topped up with Top 10, Top 20 market bets alongside some in-play bets (always advised after a days play has finished). Most if not all of these bets can usually be placed on the betting exchanges alongside with all major bookmakers.

Bet Release Timing: All bets are advised on a Monday at 9pm as standard. There may be occasions when the bet release time is pushed back to lunchtime on a Tuesday if the bookmakers are slow to price up an event. You will be notified in this instance. Matt often sends update emails with the latest odds on a Tuesday or Wednesday ahead of a tournament starting. If there are any in-play bets, they will be advised after a days play has been completed. In-play bets are currently quite rare.

Staking: Matt advises all bets to a percentage of his current bankroll and never betting more than 1% on a selection. For example, a recent bet on Justin Rose was advised as “Best Available Odds: 40/1 with Several – Stake 1.00% (0.50% each-way)”  In this instance you would simply risk 1% of your betting bank on Justin Rose.

Bookmakers/Exchanges: If using bookmakers, you are recommended to hold accounts with William Hill, Bet365, Betfair & Skybet. It is highly recommended however you use the exchanges: Betfair, Smarkets, and Matchbook to secure the best value and avoid possible issues with restrictions

Subscribe Now – Only Available Via SBC

You can subscribe now to PGA Profit with the following options:

SBC Member Rates

To take advantage of these discounted prices, an active membership to the Smart Betting Club is required.

• 1 month subscription @ £45 + VAT
• 6 month subscription @ £205 + VAT
• 12 month subscription @ £349 + VAT (Best Value long-term)

Normal Rates

• 1 month subscription @ £50 + VAT
• 6 month subscription @ £219 + VAT
• 12 month subscription @ £379 + VAT

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If you don’t hold an active Smart Betting Club membership, you can join via the following payment links:

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