It’s not been a good couple of weeks or so. In fact, they’ve been pretty darned poor.
A small overall profit yesterday (Thursday) dragged me away slightly from the point of the deepest drawdown so far this year. But the surface water that represents the previous high point feels like a long way up and I’m in a mini-submarine with the headlight on trying to pierce the black depths.
Which is all a little dramatic.
Time for a little context. The main “culprit” has been WinnerOdds Tennis which until two weeks ago, was absolutely flying for me. Since then, a number of very heavily staked, very short priced matches have gone the wrong way, and that has had a massive impact. I know there is a strong temptation to simply ignore such bets. Do we really want to be sticking 175 points on a 1.08 shot? The fact is is that those very short odds ranges have proven to be significantly profitable over many, many bets. This is just a nasty spike in negative variance.
When I look at my WinnerOdds Tennis performance overall, my bank growth stands at just over 30% from just shy of six weeks of betting. I know it doesn’t work like this, but if I was to simply extrapolate those figures over a year, it would mean annual bank growth of around 250%, which is not too shabby!
The other culprit has been The Value Machine Exchange Profit. I’m going to write more thoughts around this (spoiler: I need to get on more bets, which I should be able to do in the not too distant) next week, once I’ve updated figures and posted for August (which should be Monday).
Let’s leave it there for now. Have a great weekend, and will see you the other side.
