This is essentially a holding post until Wednesday, when I’ll stick up a March review.  I can’t believe we’re a quarter way through 2025 already!

I can honestly say I’ve not enjoyed March one bit from a betting point of view.  It’s been a Grind with a capital G.  From a strong position part way through, one catastrophic day means that barring a miracle today (Monday), it’s very likely to end in a loss, and performance for 2025 to date is running well below par.  Has it been a bit demoralising?  I’ve got to confess, that yes, it has.

But we plough on.  And with that in mind, I signed up to the newly launched eSoccer Edge service on Friday.  To be honest it’s the one service that has done me ok this month, although the back end of last week wasn’t the best.  The profits made in February were strong though after I jumped on the free trial opportunity that opened up in January.  It is going to be interesting to see what happens moving forward but everything so far has shown real promise, including bouncing back from what was a really weird few days when something happened that effected the dynamics of the markets and not in a good way!  I think that was a real test as things needed to be recalibrated, but whatever the guys did their, they did it well.

I can say that there was very little joy on the golf over this last weekend, and when I look back what happened last week kinda sums up the month of March as a hole – a big win at a big price missed.  Those lucky enough to be able to follow the Weekly Golf Value bets more closely than I would have cashed in and will be sitting on a fine month golf-wise.  Me, not so much.

I’ve a lot to think about moving forward.  Put in very basic terms, I need to see more from WinnerOdds Football.  I’ve said before that I do not doubt the benefits of the service.  Too many people I know make too much money from it (and their tennis offering) to even consider that they are anything but a brilliant service, but the fact is for me, it’s not working as well as anyone would hope.  Another five or six weeks or so and it will have been a calendar year since signing up, and 2,483 bets later I’m running at an ROI of 1.39%.  Under normal circumstances I’d probably call it quits, but I’m conscious that changing the size of bank attached to following as I was finding my feet (which happens with all services I’m new to following, by the way) may be affecting the bottom line.  Perhaps I owe it to provide some real consistency for an extended period and then reassess.  Let’s see.

I would dearly love to get back to betting in shops again and putting some Bookie Bashing inspired and sourced Lucky 15s on the horses, and picking off value from the Bet/Combo Bet Trackers.  I’m still not sure I can afford the time though.  Not quite yet, anyway.

After intending to write very little today, I’ve almost provided a review of the month less the actual figures.  On Wednesday I’ll post the numbers, and add any additional thoughts.

Until then…

I thought I had escaped.  But no.  The Gambling Gods don’t allow for escapes.  They may lull you into believing that you are, and then close the net around you once more to make any thoughts of escaping seem fanciful in the extreme.  They let you reach the train station in small town Germany, dressed in civilian clothes and merging into the background, but then a crafty “Hello” in English, and an understandable but instant “Hello” back, and before you know it you’re being ruthlessly gunned down.  And don’t even get me started on stealing a motorbike and after some valiant attempts at escape, riding it headlong into a load of barbed wire…

My stealing of the motorbike took the form of Keita Nakajima, one of four Weekly Golf Value players put up across the two golf tournaments last week that I didn’t back.  I couldn’t get value prices on them at any of the books I can still use.  He was level at the top of the leaderboard in the Club House, but was pipped when Richard Mansell birdied the last to claim the victory.  Nakajima finished second, and I breathed a sigh of relief.

And then came the barbed wire fence.

Viktor Hovland, another of the four unbacked golfers, took advantage of Justin Thomas fannying around when clear at the top to cliam the US event in the evening by a stroke.  WGV, to its immense credit, had Hovland to a sizeable stake at a big price (70/1).  I had nothing.

One golfer to place for me across the two tournaments.  It could have been so much better.  But them’s the breaks, I guess.

Elsewhere and there’s not been any immediate bounce back this time from the disaster that was the previous weekend for WinnerOdds Football.  That Saturday has left a serious dint on the figures, both for the month and year to date.  It very much feels I’m in recovery mode.  How long for?  Let’s see.

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 708pts, +38.23pts, ROI 5.39%, ROC 1.9%, Drawdown -184.2pts, Max DD -184.2pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 4,580pts, +270.75pts, ROI 5.9%, ROC 13.5%, Drawdown -16.25pts, Max DD -254pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,340pts, -40.58pts, ROI -3%, ROC -2%, Drawdown -200pts, Max DD -266.42pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 5,908pts, -136.82pts, ROI -2.3%, ROC -6.8%, Drawdown -468.58pts, Max DD -495.34pts

TOTAL: Staked 12,538pts, +112.58pts, ROI 0.89%, ROC 1.4%, Drawdown -276.5pts, Max DD -402.35pts

Sadly we haven’t had a repeat of the rapid and ridiculously strong bounce back from last weekend’s tail of woe that we saw from the woe of three weeks ago.  There’s been a lot of woe, a bit of Wheeeh! and then a lot of woe again.  I’ve decided we need more Wheeeh! in our lives.  A life spent Wheeehing! would be a fine life indeed.

A small profit has been made since Monday, but nowhere near enough to make the year to date figures below look like anything other than what they are.  I look at the figures and all I see at this moment in time is an awful lot of bets struck for very little reward.

Look, it goes like that sometimes.  That’s why they call it a “grind”.

Let’s start with some positive news and the figures so far for eSoccer Edge are looking fine indeed.  I’ve been trialling this new service for a fair few weeks now and to have already amassed bank growth of 44% already is pretty amazing,  Funnily enough, this week hasn’t been the best either, and yet my overall ROI now reads 6.83%, almost bang on the 7% long term aim (although I believe with a newish variable staking approach that may/should rise a little).  I have been flat staking, and not getting on anywhere near the maximum number of bets I could if I had more time.  Perhaps I’ve ridden on the positive side of variance a little with this, managing to coincide the bets I’ve struck with more winners than losers and had I taken different bets my figures wouldn’t be so impressive.  To be honest, this is essentially an observation only and not some kind of relevant point – the fact is over the long term that variance will even out but the ROI should remain broadly the same.  I can see no reason why it wouldn’t.

It’s been a very quiet week bet wise for WinnerOdds Football, I’m assuming because so many leagues have shut down for the tiresome international break.  Actually, that’s not fair.  Personally, I CANNOT WAIT for England’s match against the mighty Albania tonight.  It’s a true match for the ages, as England’s brave boys take on the team that most who know anything about football recognise as being the best international team since Pele’s 1970 Brazil.  For Pele, Rivelino, Tostao and Gerson, read Armando Broja, Bajrami, erm…and err…Brutti.

One thing to look out for is a full, in depth review coming up of The Value Machine Exchange Profit service I’ve been following within these posts.  With all the data to hand it’s been fascinating this week putting in some prep for writing up the review.  What’s clear to me is that the most recent months have been (and here comes that word again) a bit of a “grind”, but in the context of the full data set, this is a service to be very excited about.  You SBC members will be able to read much more soon, and if you’re reading this and you’re not a member, well frankly, why aren’t you?!?  Seriously, sort your life out!

Enough from me.  I’m off to start building up to the big match tonight.  COME ON TUCHEL AND HIS BOYS!!!!!

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 604pts, +87.43pts, ROI 14.4%, ROC 4.3%, Drawdown -135pts, Max DD -135pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 4,200pts, +180pts, ROI 4.2%, ROC 9%, Drawdown -107pts, Max DD -254pts

The Value Machine: Staked 1,080pts, -27.7pts, ROI -2.5%, ROC -1.1%, Drawdown -187.12pts, Max DD -266.42pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 4,870pts, -163.58pts, ROI -3.3%, ROC -5.4%, Drawdown -495.34pts, Max DD -495.34pts

TOTAL: Staked 10,754pts, +57.15pts, ROI 0.53%, ROC 0.6%, Drawdown -331.93pts, Max DD -402.35pts

A couple of weeks ago I talked about a dreadful Saturday from WinnerOdds Football that I admitted, despite however many years I’ve been in this game, I found hard to deal with.  This Saturday, the same service had for me, a much worse day.  Two weeks ago, the bounce back was almost immediate with a decent Sunday restoring some confidence, and the thanks to a huge drifter for the version of The Value Machine I use, I was sitting back on a profit high less than half a week later.  Sunday this time, saw no bounce back, and in fact already heavy losses were exacerbated by TVM having 20 consecutive losers Friday through to Sunday and a blank week for me using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker.

I guess losing confidence in something you’re doing when you’ve done it successfully for years is, on the face of it, a bit daft.  But I’d liken it to a top notch centre forward with a history of banging in goals left, right and centre over many seasons suddenly doing everything but score.  It doesn’t matter how experienced or successful you’ve been, confidence can always be knocked.

It got me thinking and I thought what I’d do is provide some unofficial ‘Confidence Ratings’ for each of the services I’m following right now.  Marked out of five, these are a reflection of what I am feeling right now.  They could easily change very, very quickly.

eSoccerEdge: 3.5

For a service that has produced 42.1% bank growth since mid-January, and which was the only bright spot of the weekend just gone, you’d perhaps expect this to be higher.  The only reason it isn’t is that it is so (relatively) new to me.  Based on what it’s done so far it should be a nailed on 5/5, but I still feel I’m getting used to it.  A new, variable staking system has been introduced which should increase the ROI further, but until I’ve got more info in terms of how that looks like and potential implications on the size of betting bank, I’m sticking to level stakes.  That’s why I’m at 3.5 – HUGE potential, just not 100% set yet on how to realise it.  But that will come.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker: 5

Been using it or it’s derivative Weekly Golf Value for years, and with huge success.  Every faith and confidence behind the people that run it.  Settling on a 5/5 is a no-brainer despite the inevitable long losing runs golf betting brings at times.

The Value Machine: 2.5

To emphasise – this is how I’m feeling, as Oasis once said, right here right now.  20 consecutive losing bets.  A pattern so far this year of getting to break even before hitting another draw down has happened again.  It’s difficult on a grey Monday morning to be feeling overjoyed about it.  But…and it is a big but…the people behind it are fantastic at what they do, have experience in bucket loads, and the track record is strong.  A decent week and the rating could easily be 4 by Friday!

WinnerOdds Football: 1.5

Do I believe WinnerOdds Footie is a top, top service? Yes.

Do I believe that WO Footie has suddenly lost its edge? No.

Am my feelings (and therefore rating) being assessed on just a couple of recent weekend’s bad results?  Yes, and no.

Here’s the thing.  I know this service makes good money for it’s customers.  I know it’s run by people I have huge respect for.  But…it’s not just recent results that is making my confidence levels decline.  Since starting with it, I’ve struck 2,402 bets at an average of 7.85/day.  My ROI figure is 1.3%.

That’s not a level of return that can justify the work put in.  It just isn’t.  And I know that other users will have made a strong return in the same time period, and some will have made less.  But frankly, I don’t care about them.  I care about spending a lot of time and effort, for what is a very low rate of return.

I have to be careful to caveat that my stakes last year changed as I got a feel for the service (as is the case for every service I begin to follow), and since January the bank has been larger than it was at any time in 2024. The knock on impact is that the losing runs are going to hit harder right now than they would have done last year, and as a result the ROI will be lowered.  But the difference in staking really hasn’t been that large.  Still, when encountering a winning run, the resultant profit line will rise more sharply so it needs time to right itself.

But…2,402 bets for 1.3% ROI.  It would take a pretty special person (or maybe a psychopath) not to feel a little down about that.

I’ve got to run right now.  I’ll stick, the figures up in my next post.  Fingers crossed any Confidence Ratings will look a little better in a couple of days time.

This weekend was truly a weekend of two halves.  All three services with bets on Saturday produced a loss.  All four on the Sunday a profit.  All told, we came up ahead.  Enough to push the month to date and the year to date balance to a new high.

We had another Weekly Golf Value winner last night in Russell Henley (28/1), who snatched victory from what looked like, if not certain, probable defeat late in the final round. It was a pretty tough watch actually, but in the end Henley got the job done and secured a golfing profit for the week.  WGV is on a fine run of form!

Henley and a couple of others that placed has pushed golf betting to a new profit high for 2025, but this week was one in which my using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to identify my own bets in addition to those from WGV didn’t pay off.  All it did was provide a number of more bets that didn’t provide a return, apart from one who had his placed returns split several times over as he finished joint 6th with about five others!  Still, these are the swings and roundabouts associated with my approach.  I’m sacrificing some level of ROI for, hopefully, a touch more stability.  And believe me, I’m not quibbling about an ROI of 38%, which is what I have right now.

A half decent weekend for WinnerOdds Football has meant that I’m sitting on a new profit high for March for the service, albeit I still have a fair bit of the current drawdown to reclaim before I can push on again.

And finally in the run up to Cheltenham, The Value Machine has had a quietly very effective week.  Not too many bets each day getting the price matched to Betfair SP, but a regular flow and enough to start accumulating a very decent level of profit (37.95% ROI).  Regular readers will know that when similar has happened this year, a drawdown will make it a case of one step forward and one step backwards.  This past week has felt like two steps forward, so let’s see what happens from here.

For all of you participating, best of Cheltenham luck to you.

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 469pts, +222.43pts, ROI 47.4%, ROC 11.1%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 1,620pts, -155.25pts, ROI -9.5%, ROC -7.7%, Drawdown -155.25pts, Max DD -155.25pts

The Value Machine: Staked 420pts, +159.42pts, ROI 37.9%, ROC 10.6%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -33.41pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 2,696pts, +259.1pts, ROI 9.6%, ROC 8.6%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -60pts

TOTAL: Staked 5,205pts, +485.7pts, ROI 9.3%, ROC 5.7%, Drawdown -0pts, Max DD -161.11pts

Not too much to report for this week.  A very small profit notched, but really nothing of any significance, and as is the case most weeks, the weekend will have the biggest influence on how we’re performing.

A quick summary today, then.

After the fairly disastrous end to last month, WinnerOdds Football has launched a strong recovery and has gained almost 7% bank growth since Monday.  The weekend’s action awaits and if it can reach just average performance levels then that horrible Saturday a couple of weeks ago will be forgotten.

Nice to see The Value Machine getting the month off to a good start too, running as it is at 29.5% ROI, albeit from a small sample of bets.  The returns have equated to bank growth of 6.1%, which again, is a good rate.  I’ll be looking to raise stakes if I can with this service next month so a strong March will be most welcome (he says, stating the bleeding obvious).

One service I have already raised stakes for this month after the initial period of getting used to the service and how it works, is eSoccer Edge.  My “getting to know you” period covering late January and February has been an…how shall I put it?…interesting experience.  After a sharp drawdown as a consequence of new dynamics hitting the games being played in January, February was a fantastic time.  I’d upped my stakes slightly at the start of Feb and was richly rewarded with an ROI of 13.8% and a ridiculous bank growth figure of just over 35%.

It should be noted that the ROI figure was way above long term expectations and I’m certainly not expecting double digit every month (6-7% seems to be a reasonable expectation based on long term history) but I was very happy to increase my “intermediate” staking level employed through February to “full time” level from the beginning of March.  Naturally, since doing this, I’ve seen a (small) loss.  I think that’s what is called Sod’s Law.

Exciting times though, and clearly the service is being tweaked in terms of the way it is run to protect the edge whilst maximising potential for people to sign up, providing levels of stake per bet based on perceived levels of expected value, etc.

As for the golf, well there was a fair bit of value available across the four tournaments (yes, four!) being played this week.  Personally, I’ve covered just the three as for reasons previously explained I’ve decided to leave the LIV Tour alone this year, but even so staking across the three has added up to a significant amount.  Just one round played as I write this post, and a number of players have got off to a decent enough start, but clearly very early days.  Let’s see what the fall out is on Sunday evening.

Have a good weekend, all.

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 133pts, +158.75pts, ROI 119.36%, ROC 10.58%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 1,020pts, -85.5pts, ROI -8.3%, ROC -4.2%, Drawdown -85.5pts, Max DD -85.5pts

The Value Machine: Staked 310pts, +91.71pts, ROI 29.5%, ROC 6.1%, Drawdown -20pts, Max DD -20pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 1,328pts, +206.93pts, ROI 15.5%, ROC 6.8%, Drawdown -11pts, Max DD -60pts

TOTAL: Staked 2,791pts, +371.89pts, ROI 13.3%, ROC 4.37%, Drawdown -55.5pts, Max DD -55.5pts

I’ve been a bit of a burk.  Managed to overwrite February’s results with March’s to date.  Doh!

So, needing to get this post written early this morning as I won’t have a chance later, you’re going to have to bear with me for the February monthly review.  I’ll do that later this week, although to be honest in the bigger picture, there is not a lot to report.  From memory, I ended up in profit, but with an ROI of less than 1%.  An awful lot of bets struck to stand still, and February did feel like a month largely spent wading in treacle.

March is seeing a slimline portfolio in action.  As I’ve mentioned recently, circumstances have changed and time is now my most precious commodity.  I’ve relied on my lad getting a lot of bets on but his situation is changing too over the next few months which means he can’t do anywhere near so much moving forward.  Certainly not until the summer.  The Bet Diary is very much designed to show betting in real life…and this is it!

So taking time to think about how to progress when I was on holiday the other week was important.  My thoughts were centred around trying to find an answer as to how I can get as many bets down as possible, but very quickly.

My lad is still going to be able to get the golf bets down.  Half an hour a week is fine, so all good there.

eSoccerEdge is high turnover, but very quick and easy to strike the bets, and most significantly for my purpose, you can just dip in and out when suits.  Bets are churned out through the day, and I don’t get down anywhere near the total of bets generated, and yet can still maintain a very healthy level of turnover.  The only drawback is that I’m still relatively new to it.  I’ve loved what I’ve seen so far, and it was by far and away my most profitable service last month, but I usually build stakes very slowly with any service I’m relatively new to.  Now I need to up stakes to compensate for fewer overall bets, which to my very risk-averse approach, puts me just ever so slightly out of my comfort zone.  However, the fact I can back a good number of selections at whatever time in the morning/afternoon/evening that I can, is a massive plus point, so out of my comfort zone I go.

The Value Machine is a perfect set up for me.  I just need it to really start producing the goods.  As I’ve already stated within these pages, I messed up January myself.  What really should have been a small profit on the month was for me, a loss.  It goes back to building up stakes (and if I’m honest, the issue of being  prevented from depositing the necessary funds by restrictive affordability limitations) as I grow more familiar and comfortable with a service.  February produced a tiny loss (it was essentially break even) but was a month rescued by the huge drifter I wrote about last week, with a winner going from the advised price of 6.5 to 26.  I still can’t get my stakes quite to where I want them.  A decent month this month though should mean I can up bet size by April.

Where TVM fits in so well is that I can, during the week anyway, just quickly stick bets on at Betfair SP, setting a minimum acceptable price.  There’s no thought required.  Any bets that come through in the morning I can quickly get down in a bunch at lunchtime.  Those that come through in the afternoon, it takes less than a minute to get the money down.  And turnover is still high.

Finally, WinnerOdds Football.  This is the most difficult but by using ten minute time windows first thing in the morning, lunchtime and early and then late evening, such are the number of bets that come through that again, I can maximize my use of time.  I can retain strong levels of turnover, whilst not taking up much time at all.

And there we have it.  Is it the perfect scenario?  No.  I’d much rather just be carrying on as normal.  But that – for the next little while at least – isn’t possible.  So compromise, and flexibility, is a must.  Let’s see where it gets us.

Meanwhile, a good start to the month with the weekend producing some strong profit, including a lovely Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value winner in Joe Highsmith, on whom I got 110/1!  Towards the end, I had Highsmith, another WGV pick in Ben Griffin (45/1), and from the Tracker, Jacob Bridgeman (100/1) all vying for the lead with only a couple of holes to play.  Happy days!  Sadly, success not replicated in the DPWT event, for which I suffered a total blank.  Good profit overall though, taking the 2025 profit to a new high.

A decent weekend for WinnerOdds Football too, as it looks to claw back the heavy losses suffered the previous weekend.  Much more like it this week.

So March has got off to a decent start.  Let’s hope the new, slimline, temporary portfolio continues to do the business.

March 2025 (stakes normalised):

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/WGV: Staked 133pts, +158.75pts, ROI 119.36%, ROC 10.58%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

eSoccer Edge: Staked 360pts, -41pts, ROI -11.3%, ROC -2%, Drawdown -41pts, Max DD -41pts

The Value Machine: Staked 150pts, +43.13pts, ROI 28.7%, ROC 2.8%, Drawdown 0pts, Max DD 0pts

WinnerOdds Football: Staked 1,125pts, +138.21pts, ROI 12.2%, ROC 4.6%, Drawdown -60pts, Max DD -60pts

TOTAL: Staked 1,768pts, +299.09pts, ROI 16.9%, ROC 3.5%, Drawdown -51.2pts, Max DD -51.2pts