A disappointing past week for the sports portfolio, with all services barring Sports Service 2 (which didn’t issue any bets) producing a loss.  It’s been tough going for Sports Service 1 but the chap who runs the service sounds very unfazed and unconcerned, and rightly so.  We’ve not had many bets so far this year, there is a strong past record to point to, and an experienced and clearly knowledgeable tipster at the wheel.

After a promising start to the year Scottish Football Income Booster has dropped off a little over the past couple of weeks or so. Again, I feel there is nothing more going on here than the usual ebb and flow of betting.  And finally – and it is forgivable bearing in mind the scorching hot form this service has been in – The Poacher has dropped a point or so.

No need at all for despondency.  The ROI for this mini-portfolio remains at a very respectable 9.33%.  Should we be in and around that number at the end of the year, 2021 will go down as one to toast!

Sports Service 1 (40pts): Staked 12pts, -6.13pts, roi -51.08%, roc -15.32%, High 0pts, CDD: -6.13pts, Max DD: -6.13pts.

Sports Service 2 (30): Staked 3pts, +3.03pts, roi 100.1%, roc 10.01%, High: 3.03pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 19pts, -4.606pts, roi -24.24%, roc -4.6%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -9pts, Max DD: -9pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 53.5pts, +11.406pts, roi 21.31%, roc 28.51%, High: 12.955pts, CDD: -1.549pts, Max DD: -2pts

Sports Portfolio: ROI 9.33%, ROC 4.41%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

There’s really very little to report on in terms of the day to day betting on the nags is concerned.  Certainly the current situation is very removed from the thrills, spills and exciting late nights watching the golf.  This last week has seen a bit of a loss although we’re still in profit overall, just.

Thanks to Northern Monkey however, there is some excitement building as Wayne continues to steadily develop what is an impressive-looking antepost portfolio for the Cheltenham Festival.  This is quite normal for the service, and NMP Festivals of the past have proven to be lucrative affairs.  Here’s hoping that will be the case this year too.

In addition to advising straight antepost bets, Wayne gets stakes rolling onto Cheltenham selections by doubling them up with runners at the bog-standard day to day meetings.  Clearly as you would expect, his plans are sometimes thwarted if the horse running that day at Lingfield or Wolverhampton doesn’t win, but over the years it’s been a tried and tested formula that has paid dividends.  I’ve not ever seen another tipster using this strategy, but it’s one that makes sense.  If Wayne can see value in the prices of his bets for that day, and in one of his Cheltenham fancies, it makes sense to compound that value in doubles.  It also means a pretty exciting four days in March, and at this moment in time that is something very much to look forward to.

Bet Alchemist (100pts):Staked 41pts, -0.751pts, roi -1.83%, roc -0.75%, High: 1.15pts, CDD: -1.901pts, Max DD: -8.438pts.

Northern Monkey Punter (100): Staked 60.325pts, -12.589pts, roi -20.86%, roc -12.58%, High: 1.687pts, CDD: -12.081pts, Max DD: -14.276pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 116pts, +0.989pts, roi 0.85%, roc 0.49%, High: 5.989pts, CDD: -5pts, Max DD: -15.444pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 9.5pts, +8.25pts, roi 86.84%, roc 16.5%, High: 11.25pts, CDD: -3pts, Max DD: -3pts.

Racing Portfolio: ROI 2.07%, ROC 0.91%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

I have played a number of sports over the years.  Never what folk might call talented in any, but always able to play to a semi-decent Club level without embarrassing myself.  The years may be taking their toll on my legs, but I still play cricket, a bit of 6-a-side footie, and tennis, and although the youngsters often run rings around me with their fancy pace and all that, I reckon I still hold my own…just.  They say the first yard in football is in the head.  Well, I can tell you, the next ten yards are very much in the legs!

In the past, I’ve also played table tennis at Club level, and badminton too.  I know some don’t count these as sports, but I won the odd darts match down the pub as a student, and once hustled ex-pro-jockey Darryll Holland (who rode for many of the top trainers) out of a tenner on the pool table (but that’s a story for another day).

And then there’s golf.  What a ridiculously, stupidly, difficult game golf is.  I tried playing it years ago.  I was on the golf course when Lady Diana died, which tells you how long ago it was.  But I gave it up. Why?  Because it is just so darned difficult.

So, when Max Homa hit the first drive of his first play-off hole last night so that it nestled against the base of a tree, not only could I sympathise because most of my shots ended up against or behind or in trees, fences, bunkers, lakes and/or any other obstacle you might find on a golf course (because it’s a ridiculously difficult game, remember) but I also turned off the telly and went to bed, because frankly, there was no come back for Homa from there.

Imagine my surprise when I found out this morning Homa had indeed won.  I’ve no idea how – I didn’t see it.  But I’m telling you, there are mysterious forces at play with this golfing portfolio at the moment.  That is the only possible explanation for finding yet another winner this week (courtesy of the scalding hot PGA Profit) to make it…erm…let’s see now..ermmm…  You know I can’t flaming keep up with how many golf  winners we’ve had this year now.  Yup, mysterious forces is what it is.

PGA Profit also tipped up two others who finished in the places, and Weekly Golf Value broke even on the week with a couple placed too.

This can’t continue.  Can it?

Golf Insider (200pts bank): Staked 45pts, -11.475pts, roi -25.5%, roc -5.73%, High 14.95pts, CDD: -26.425pts, Max DD: -26.425pts

 PGA Profit (500): Staked 129.5pts, +166pts, roi 128.18%, roc 33.2%, High +166pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -65pts

 Weekly Golf Value (1,000): 1,232pts, +1,003.15pts, roi 81.42%, roc 100.31%, High 1,093.5pts, CDD: -90.35pts, Max DD: -93.25pts.

Golf portfolio: ROI 74.46%, ROC 42.59%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

Well, time is ticking on and yet the ROI figures for The Poacher continue to stay solid at the 30% mark, which is quite remarkable.  The service has pushed on again this week to an all time high for the year and as the weeks pass, I find I’m boring myself saying that the long term ROI is around a tenth of what it is presently and that there’s going to be a crash soon.  So you know what?  I’m going to stop stressing about the inevitable reversion to the mean or “correction”, and concentrate instead on just enjoying the moment.

It is a fault of mine.  Over the years I feel I’ve managed to control my emotions well when it comes to dealing with losing runs.  That was tough, but I got there.  I do however, find myself struggling at times to just relax and take it easy when things are going well.  Is it through years of trying to control the negative side of betting psychology that I now find myself reticent to enjoy the positive?  Anybody else find they’ve trained themselves so much not to get down by losing spells that you struggle a little mentally when the profit’s coming in as anyone would or could hope for?  Or is it just me?

The entire portfolio is also at an all time high for 2021, largely due to the golf.  But the racing side, despite struggling, has clawed back the majority of the losses accrued through January, the golf is through the roof, and the sports is ticking along very nicely indeed.

Have I just tempted fate?  Have I just more or less begged the betting Gods to punish me?  Possibly.  But perhaps I simply shouldn’t care…

Sports Service 1 (40pts): Staked 5pts, -0.85pts, roi -17%, roc -2.12%, High 0pts, CDD: -0.85pts, Max DD: -2pts.

Sports Service 2 (30): Staked 3pts, +3.03pts, roi 100.1%, roc 10.01%, High: 3.03pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 16pts, -1.606pts, roi -10.03%, roc -1.6%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -2pts, Max DD: -2pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 43pts, +12.955pts, roi 30.12%, roc 32.38%, High: 12.955pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -2pts

Sports Portfolio: ROI 26.03%, ROC 9.43%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

Things are ticking over in the racing ranks but it is hard not to feel frustrated at the lack of decent racing taking place at the moment.  The weather obliterated the decent cards over the weekend and it left very little for Bet Alchemist to get its teeth into, and rendered Racing Service 1 without a bet at all.

You’ve probably got bored of me moaning about the lack of quality in the daily cards over the past couple of weeks or so.  The fact is, the standard fare being served up at the moment doesn’t lend itself to finding value and identifying horses that a tipster is likely to be very confident about.  It’s the main reason why Northern Monkey tends to scale back his involvement and lower his stakes at this time of year before ramping everything up again once the turf season starts in late-March.   I’m certainly no tipster, and the idea of me finding winners and value is laughable, but even with my untrained eye when I see cards of NH Flat races, I’m thinking that it’s all a bit desperate.

So, with all this in mind, perhaps “ticking over” at a current ROI of 6.25% is something not to be sniffed at in any way.  It looks like the weather has taken a step in a warmer direction at the start of this week so hopefully we’ll soon see a return to an acceptable amount of at least semi-decent racing very quickly.  Roll on that, and roll on Cheltenham.  We’re only a month away now, folks…

Bet Alchemist (100pts):Staked 33pts, -4.351pts, roi -13.18%, roc -4.35%, High: 1.15pts, CDD: -5.501pts, Max DD: -8.438pts.

Northern Monkey Punter (100): Staked 51.325pts, -10.394pts, roi -20.25%, roc -10.39%, High: 1.687pts, CDD: -12.081pts, Max DD: -13.548pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 91pts, +2.114pts, roi 2.32%, roc 1.05%, High: 4.781pts, CDD: -2.667pts, Max DD: -15.444pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 6.5pts, +11.25pts, roi 173.07%, roc 22.5%, High: 11.25pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -1.5pts.

Racing Portfolio: ROI 6.25%, ROC 2.2%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

Well, we didn’t have to wait long for another winner on the golf.  Just a one week break from the winners enclosure in fact, as Daniel Berger landed the AT&T Pebble Beach tournie at 14/1 for PGA Profit last night.  I’m losing count of how many winners each golf service has had this year, and it’s only the middle of February!

I do keep telling myself it can’t and won’t continue like this, and indeed the weekly summary from Weekly Golf Value pointed out that as far as that service is concerned the huge ROI is unsustainable and we should ready ourselves for some blank weeks.  This was in fact, WGV’s first losing week of the year with only one golfer – Cameron Tringale – sharing 7th spot at odds of 40/1 providing a return.

One placed for Golf Insider too, Paul Casey finishing in the frame at 16s.

One thing I really do enjoy about betting on the golf (other the regular supply of winners so far) is I find it all tremendously relaxing to watch.  Which sounds daft when you consider how tense it gets every time you see your man, chasing a win, readying himself to play his next shot.  Somehow though, I can’t get too worked up in terms of nerves.  Most of the courses are placed in glorious settings and sitting at home in the dark, with it cold and/or wet outside, seeing some sun and sea…it kinda lifts the spirits.  Not as much as backing another winner does  though, naturally.

Golf Insider (200pts): Staked 40pts, -6.475pts, roi -16.18%, roc -3.23%, High 14.95pts, CDD: -21.425pts, Max DD: -23.05pts

 PGA Profit (500): Staked 112.5pts, +38pts, roi 33.77%, roc 7.6%, High +38pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -65pts

 Weekly Golf Value (1,000): 1148pts, +1,000.25pts, roi 87.12%, roc 100.02%, High 1,093.5pts, CDD: -93.25pts, Max DD: -93.25pts.

Golf portfolio: ROI 66.36%, ROC 34.79%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

There is really very little to report upon this week, with no results to record from either Sports Service 1 or Sports Service 2, and just a handful of bets from Scottish Football Income Booster and The Poacher.

So, although it has nothing to do with the sports side of the portfolio, I shall pass comment on an email I received yesterday (too late for me to refer to in the Racing Bet Diary post) from the SBC.  This relates to the return of Paul Chandler-Burns and his method that utilizes the Racing Post’s renowned Pricewise column to make an excellent level of profit.  Longer-term SBC members might well recall Paul’s old 4PA service, one I followed myself with great success and enjoyment.

I was really sorry when the 4PA service came to an end some years ago.  It had given me many great moments, the best of which was back in 2011 and the last day of the Cheltenham Festival.  If I remember correctly, the Festival had been pretty tough going from a punting perspective and I was well down over the week.  But on the last day, 4PA put up Zarkander who won the opening Triumph Hurdle at about 8s, and then in possibly the best horse race I’ve ever seen, the 4PA-tipped Long Run beat previous Gold Cup winners and all-time greats Kauto Star, Denman, and Imperial Commander.  It was a thrilling, and a very profitable day, and one that remains stored away in the old memory bank.

It is with these fond memories I associate the old 4PA service, and so it was with great interest I heard that Paul is back with a newly freshened approach as he has evolved over the years to ensure he stays well ahead of the bookies when it comes to an edge.  I’ll certainly be signing up to the two Saturdays when we get to see and sample his filtered bets.  It’ll no doubt take me back to that sunny Cheltenham Friday in 2011.  I’ll stick a few quid on, and if we get a winner, I might treat myself to a nice Single Malt, and raise a cheeky snifter to the now retired Zarkander and Long Run.  Sláinte.

Sports Service 1 (40pts): Staked 2pts, -2pts, roi -100%, roc -5%, High 0pts, CDD: -2pts, Max DD: -2pts.

Sports Service 2 (30): Staked 3pts, +3.03pts, roi 100.1%, roc 10.01%, High: 3.03pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 12pts, +2.394pts, roi 19.95%, roc 2.39%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -2pts, Max DD: -2pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 34pts, +10.538pts, roi 30.99%, roc 26.34%, High: 11.07pts, CDD: -0.532pts, Max DD: -2pts

Sports Portfolio: ROI 29.57%, ROC 8.2%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

Readers of last week’s racing-focused Bet Diary post will know how I felt about the state of play; bad weather, bad racing, bad results.  Well, the weekend just gone saw a good quality meeting at Leopardstown take place and with the better racing came better results as Racing Service 1 pushed itself to the fore.

A winner at 7/2 and a couple of losers on Saturday meant RS1 was just about in profit, but a lovely 25/1 winner on Sunday forced the grey racing clouds to part and the glow from the emerging sun warmed the cockles.  With that one winner, the racing portfolio forced its way into profit for the first time this year.

To be fair it had looked like Bet Alchemist was going to be the trailblazer with a couple of good returns on the Saturday, only to take a step back on the Sunday.  Some decent days through the week for Precision Value has done much to eradicate most of its losses and pull the overall profit and loss line up some, and Northern Monkey is closer to the break even line than it has been for a few weeks so it’s fair to say the last seven days have seen considerable improvement amongst the racing ranks.

Looking forward however, and again the racing is being affected by the weather (two turf meetings abandoned yesterday, two more today, and who knows through the rest of the week).  Let’s hope this won’t stop some of the momentum that has been built.

Bet Alchemist (100pts):Staked 31pts, -6.788pts, roi -21.89%, roc -6.78%, High: 1.15pts, CDD: -7.938pts, Max DD: -8.438pts.

Northern Monkey Punter (100): Staked 42.2pts, -6.63pts, roi -15.71%, roc -6.63%, High: 1.687pts, CDD: -8.317pts, Max DD: -13.548pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 74pts, -0.969pts, roi -1.3%, roc -0.48%, High: 1.792pts, CDD: -2.761pts, Max DD: -15.444pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 6.5pts, +11.25pts, roi 173.07%, roc 22.5%, High: 11.25pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -1.5pts.

Racing Portfolio: ROI 5.3%, ROC 1.54%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

This week was a nearly week on the golf betting front.  Xander Schauffele was tipped up by both Golf Insider and Weekly Golf Value over Stateside and I was optimistic when he shared the lead at the end of Day 3.  As it happened, Schauffele stayed firmly ensconced in the top section of the leader board for most of the final round, whilst giving the impression – to me anyway – of battling his way as opposed to ever threatening to hit top gear and move clear of the field.  He was always going to remain vulnerable to the sort of thing that happened very late, when the eventual winner holed a miracle chip to gain an Eagle at the 17th and move two shots clear (hark at me with all the golfing lingo!).

So it was not to be, and Schauffele finished second – close to another double winner though, and all told the golf portfolio generated a profit for the week.  Weekly Golf Value had four golfers place across both tournaments, Golf Insider manged two placed finishes, and PGA Profit had one at 90/1.

All in all the golf continues to please, and is currently making for some very exciting Sunday evenings!

Golf Insider (200pts): Staked 36pts, -4.575pts, roi -12.7%, roc -2.28%, High 14.95pts, CDD: -19.525pts, Max DD: -23.05pts

 PGA Profit (500): Staked 97.5pts, +6pts, roi 6.15%, roc 1.2%, High +6pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -65pts

 Weekly Golf Value (1,000): 1008pts, +1,093.5pts, roi 108.48%, roc 109.35%, High 1,093.5pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.

Golf portfolio: ROI 78.28%, ROC 36.08%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

Darting specialist Sports Service 2 got 2021 off to a flyer with three winning bets from three selections as the year’s first event, the PDC Masters didn’t throw up much in quantity but plenty in terms of quality.  I emphasise again that a service like SS2 needs to be given plenty of time.  It is not going to churn over its bank quickly and the relative low turnover means that the effects of variance can cover a fairly long timespan.  But the long term record is not in dispute, and here we can have faith in a tipster who well and truly knows his sport.

Anyway, a nice start.

Elsewhere and the form of The Poacher continues to run hot.  For a service that bets in the markets this one does – with a long term ROI of 3-4% – for a single month to generate an ROI around the 40% mark and bank growth of 20%+ shows just how hot the form is.  It cannot last of course, and we will see a reversion to the mean.  But no complaints here.

Similarly with Scottish Football Income Booster, a tremendous last weekend with an identical record to Sports Service 2 (3 wins from 3 bets) meant that here too is a footie tipster whose year to date ROI is hanging around the 40% mark.

So overall, it has only been the racing services that have prevented the whole portfolio from having a stormer.  The Sports and (particularly) the golf guys have been performing wonders.  The total ROI across all services currently stands proud at 43.69% and the ROC at a very acceptable 10.56%.  Before getting carried away we need to remember that a month that produces the winner of one of the two important golf tournaments of the week every week, is unlikely to be repeated for a long, long time.  Let’s make the most of it whilst we can.

Sports Service 1 (40pts): Staked 2pts, -2pts, roi -100%, roc -5%, High 0pts, CDD: -2pts, Max DD: -2pts.

Sports Service 2 (30): Staked 3pts, +3.03pts, roi 100.1%, roc 10.01%, High: 3.03pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 7pts, +2.994pts, roi 42.77%, roc 2.9%, High: 2.994pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -2pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 23pts, +9.578pts, roi 41.64%, roc 23.94%, High: 9.578pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -2pts

Sports Portfolio: ROI 39.52%, ROC 7.75%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown