Profitable Edges At The Sharpest Lines: Pinnacle Underdog Edge

Pinnacle Underdog Edge is a new SBC Free Tipster service that focuses on backing ‘underdogs’ and comes with a strong record over their first 550 advised bets.

By focusing on less liquid leagues are typically overlooked by bigger bettors, the Pinnacle Underdog Edge service has been able to consistently find matches which offer profitable angles in. As this betting record demonstrates, Asian Handicaps are their ‘MO’ and the returns to date suggest they are very good at finding the right spots to get involved!

What is Their Process?

The man behind Pinnacle Underdog Edge models match outcomes, using his own prices to determine fair Asian Handicap lines before advising bets. Here is what he has to say about his process:

‘My predictions are completely statistical and do not include human emotions. That’s why I can create more transparent bets that are purely based on numbers. I actually have a very simple strategy. When making my predictions, I try to find teams with higher odds than I expect, namely the underrated ones. I try to be on the side with 66% using the Asian handicap (draw and win). I make my decision by looking at factors such as the teams’ past form, the importance of the match, the missing (injury/suspended) list and the past odds movements. This is what I do regularly every morning. After many years of development, I have seen that this strategy gives better results in some leagues and I only consider those leagues. There may be losses in the short term, but I don’t care about them!’

His process is exhaustive but after looking at all of these variables he is left with a shortlist to bet and tip. Volume isn’t very high (more on this shortly), but results suggest that he is consistently finding value.

The Record To Date

Pinnacle Underdog Edge has a full record detailed on the Blogabet site and we used a proofing period of several months to make sure that our records aligned with that (they did!); you can view their line-by-line record here. This is what the long-term record looks like in summary form:

As Pinnacle Underdog Edge tips using Asian Handicaps, odds are generally offered at around the even money mark, with a mean of 1.957 over the 554 bet sample. This makes their 7.37% ROI quite remarkable as there is no reliance on ‘big-priced winners’ with the flat staking plan.

As you can see from this summary the strike rates and average odds make this a low volatility service.

This makes it a perfect candidate for solid bank growth and progressive reinvestment. Here is what ROC figures would look like using their advised 50 point bank and a more aggressive 25 point bank:

Progressive investment could be achieved by reinvesting profits at certain milestones or by investing a set amount (e.g. 2% or 4%)  on each and every bet using a rolling-bank figure. Here is what he advises based on his own betting:

‘I recommend a 50 point bankroll. I trust every prediction equally, that’s why I use flat stake. This means 2% of the bankroll, or 1 point, for each prediction. You can withdraw the profit at the end of 1 year. You can continue to make predictions with a 50 point bankroll. When the total amount you withdraw reaches the amount in your bankroll, which is 50 points, you can increase your bankroll and continue with, for example, 60 points. (The amount you invest in each match will be 1.2 points)’

Getting On

All of our proofing and the results recording has been based on Pinnacle prices to date, so we do not have more detailed analysis of prices with exchanges and/or soft bookmakers. Pinnacle’s odds are generally offered with low margins but are ‘beatable’ in certain spots. Concessions such as ‘2up’ also add value to bets, so taking slightly inferior prices with these concessions available should not leave a personal betting record that is too disparate from thsese records. A historic ROI of 7.37% also suggests that there may be a little ‘wiggle-room’ with value prices.

Access The Pinnacle Underdog Edge Tips

To gain access to P.U.E’s tips a paid SBC membership is required to gain access to the Telegram Channel where bets will be supplied.

To access this Telegram Group, simply login to the SBC website with your member credentials and re-visit this page to obtain the link. Note – Details on how to join only appear if logged in with a paid SBC membership.

If not yet an SBC member, subscribe to SBC today and once you have paid to join, come back to this page when logged in to find the Telegram Link

P.U.E’s sends tips to members via Telegram, the messaging service that is similar to WhatsApp. To join this Telegram Channel, please log-in using your SBC credentials and a link will be available below. Once logged in, you can also access the full results sheet, which includes full player and bet name details.

Service Nuts and Bolts

About: Pinnacle Underdog Edge advises Asian Handicap football bets, with prices quoted solely with Pinnacle.

Method of Bet Supply: Tips are sent out via Telegram to subscribers with the match, selection and price clearly noted.

Bet Timing: Tips are sent out approximately 1 hour before the game.

Bet Type: All bets are in Asian Handicap markets, with a flat 1-unit staking plan deployed.

Bookmakers: Tips are advised (and recorded) with Pinnacle but given patterns seen in other markets, prices with exchanges and bookmakers will be similar (or in some cases better) in certain leagues and matches.

Number of Bets: Around 12-15 bets can be expected in an average month, with the amount of action and active leagues determining the number of value opportunities.

Staking: Each bet is advised with a flat one unit stake from a 50-point bank.

Betting Bank Advice: A 50-point bank is advised to follow these bets and we have calculated ROC figures using this (and a more aggressive 25 point bank) above. To use this advise more fluidly, 2% of any running bank could be used for progressive reinvestment. The average odds (around even money) make the risk of considerable drawdowns low, hence our analysis using a 25 point bank above.